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DOE OSTI2021

Expected individual benefit of prophylactic platelet transfusions in hemato‐oncology patients based on bleeding risks

Abstract Background Prophylactic platelet transfusions prevent bleeding in hemato‐oncology patients, but it is unclear how any benefit varies between patients. Our aim was to assess if patients with different baseline risks for bleeding benefit differently from a prophylactic platelet transfusion strategy. Study design and methods Using the data from the randomized controlled TOPPS trial (Trial of Platelet Prophylaxis), we developed a prediction model for World Health Organization grades 2, 3, and 4 bleeding risk (defined as at least one bleeding episode in a 30 days period) and grouped patients in four risk‐quartiles based on this predicted baseline risk. Predictors in the model were baseline platelet count, age, diagnosis, disease modifying treatment, disease status, previous stem cell transplantation, and the randomization arm. Results The model had a c‐statistic of 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54–0.64). There was little variation in predicted risks (quartiles 46%, 47%, and 51%), but prophylactic platelet transfusions gave a risk reduction in all risk quartiles. The absolute risk difference (ARD) was 3.4% (CI −12.2 to 18.9) in the lowest risk quartile (quartile 1), 7.4% (95% CI −8.4 to 23.3) in quartile 2, 6.8% (95% CI −9.1 to 22.9) in quartile 3, and 12.8% (CI −3.1 to 28.7) in the highest risk quartile (quartile 4). Conclusion In our study, generally accepted bleeding risk predictors had limited predictive power (expressed by the low c‐statistic), and, given the wide confidence intervals of predicted ARD, could not aid in identifying subgroups of patients who might benefit more (or less) from prophylactic platelet transfusion.

Cornelissen, Loes L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

NRAP-open-IAM: A flexible open-source integrated-assessment-model for geologic carbon storage risk assessment and management

Large-scale implementation of geologic carbon storage (GCS) to help reduce atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions requires stakeholder confidence that injected CO2 will remain contained and that potential subsurface environmental risks are acceptably small and manageable. The U.S. Department of Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) has developed an open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to help address questions about a potential GCS site’s ability to effectively contain injected CO 2 and protect groundwater and other overlying environmentally sensitive receptors. NRAP-Open-IAM allows a user to: (1) incorporate relevant site geologic and injection scenario data; (2) characterize important site features and events;(3) couple fast prediction models of various system components of the engineered geologic system; and (4) execute stochastic, dynamic simulation of whole GCS system performance, leakage risk assessment, and uncertainty quantification. NRAP-Open-IAM is available on GitLab (https://gitlab.com/NRAP/OpenIAM), and is accompanied by multiple application examples and detailed user and developer guides.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modern Senicide in the Face of a Pandemic: An Examination of Public Discourse and Sentiment About Older Adults and COVID-19 Using Machine Learning

Objectives This study examined public discourse and sentiment regarding older adults and COVID-19 on social media and assessed the extent of ageism in public discourse. Methods Twitter data (N = 82,893) related to both older adults and COVID-19 and dated from January 23 to May 20, 2020, were analyzed. We used a combination of data science methods (including supervised machine learning, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis), qualitative thematic analysis, and conventional statistics. Results The most common category in the coded tweets was “personal opinions” (66.2%), followed by “informative” (24.7%), “jokes/ridicule” (4.8%), and “personal experiences” (4.3%). The daily average of ageist content was 18%, with the highest of 52.8% on March 11, 2020. Specifically, more than 1 in 10 (11.5%) tweets implied that the life of older adults is less valuable or downplayed the pandemic because it mostly harms older adults. A small proportion (4.6%) explicitly supported the idea of just isolating older adults. Almost three-quarters (72.9%) within “jokes/ridicule” targeted older adults, half of which were “death jokes.” Also, 14 themes were extracted, such as perceptions of lockdown and risk. A bivariate Granger causality test suggested that informative tweets regarding at-risk populations increased the prevalence of tweets that downplayed the pandemic. Discussion Ageist content in the context of COVID-19 was prevalent on Twitter. Information about COVID-19 on Twitter influenced public perceptions of risk and acceptable ways of controlling the pandemic. Finaly, public education on the risk of severe illness is needed to correct misperceptions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bio-project “derisking” through development of systematic methodologies and frameworks for risk assessment

One of the primary hindrances to producing a viable, sustainable domestic biomass industry for renewable biofuels, bio-products and bio-power is the lack of understanding and quantification of the risks associated with both the biomass supply chain and preprocessing and conversion technologies. Currently a consistent method for assessing, comparing, and quantifying risks in biomass supply chains does not exist, creating a major investment barrier to bioenergy projects in the U.S. The lack of a standardized approach has resulted in bioenergy stakeholders independently using inconsistent approaches and evaluation criteria, leading to unreliable and incomparable assessments of risks and financing barriers to bio-project development. Along with the challenges of inconsistent risk assessment for supply chain risk, technology specific risks based on variability in biomass properties are not fully understood and can pose significant unforeseen challenges for bioenergy projects. In many cases these properties have not yet been identified and the impacts on the proposed technology and products unquantified. This is particularly challenging for emerging preprocessing and conversion technologies. Without a firm understanding of the preprocessing/conversion technology-specific critical properties, the risk of a proposed bio-project cannot be fully evaluated. To address inconsistent risk evaluation in the biomass supply chain supporting project financing, a Biomass Supply Chain Risk Standards (BSCRS) framework was developed. The BSCRS framework includes a comprehensive list of known and perceived risks (Risk Indicators) to the supply chain developed through 100’s of interviews with bioenergy industry experts spanning from feedstock growers and suppliers to representatives from the financial sector. These risks have been organized into a manageable hierarchy of Risk Categories and Risk Factors that can be practically assessed. This BSCRS framework also provides mitigation strategies for multiple Risk Indicators from best available industry practices and research findings. Additionally, a risk quantification methodology for each Risk Factor, Risk Category, and the bio-project as a whole was developed to enable capital markets to assess feedstock risk more efficiently and more accurately. Multiple case studies representing existing bio-projects have been used to evaluate and verify the BSCRS framework and scoring methodology. To address technological risk along with the supply chain risk captured in the developed BSCRS framework, this work also focuses on development of a systematic criticality assessment tool using well-accepted, quantitative risk analysis methods to evaluate bioenergy feedstock critical properties impacting system unit operations. The proposed Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) approach uses a team of subject area experts (SAEs) for each targeted unit operation within a system. Collectively, the team will develop and use a quantitative scoring system to assess the material attributes, process parameters, and quality attributes for key unit operations that have already been identified. The FMEA process generates Risk Priority Numbers (RPNs) for the various failures and predominant causes for each material/process unit/product combination resulting in a semi-quantitative, standardized methodology for assessing technological risk and biomass properties contributing to that risk.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Regional Representation of Wind Stakeholders' End-of-Life Behaviors and Their Impact on Wind Blade Circularity

Wind plant power has seen tremendous growth in the US and worldwide, representing the most significant renewable energy installed capacity besides hydropower. While wind power enables decarbonizing the electricity grid, the rising amount of end-of-life (EOL) wind blades - which are arduous to recycle - present a challenge for landfills if disposed of whole and a missed opportunity to recover valuable composite materials. The circular economy (CE) concept proposes strategies to rethink, reuse and recover products, components, and materials. However, transitioning to a CE implies changing how business models, supply chains, and behaviors deal with products and waste; changes arduously captured with traditional methods used to assess circularity such as life cycle assessment or material flow analysis (MFA). Here we present an agent-based model (ABM) that captures behavioral aspects impacting wind blade circularity in the US. The ABM also accounts for wind plant projects and landfills heterogeneity - a characteristic not easily included in top-down approaches such as MFA, input-output analysis, or system dynamics. Results show that recycling is divided as most recycling facilities are on the eastern side of the country, a challenge that could be alleviated by shredding blades before transportation. Recycling programs from the wind industry could also seed recycling behaviors within wind plant owners. Better yet, new blade designs could increase circularity if original equipment manufacturers accept the risks involved with the investments needed to adapt the production lines.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI1995

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 36, No. 2, July-December 1995]

Nuclear Safety is a journal that covers significant issues in the field of nuclear safety. Its primary scope is safety in the design, construction, operation, and decommissioning of nuclear power reactors worldwide and the research and analysis activities that promote this goal, but it also encompasses the safety aspects of the entire nuclear fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing and handling, and nuclear waste disposal, the handling of fissionable materials and radioisotopes, and the environmental effects of all these activities. Table of Contents for this issue follows. THE CHORNOBYL ACCIDENT: 195 The Chornobyl Accident Revisited, Part III: Chernobyl Source Term Release Dynamics and Reconstruction of Events During the Active Phase, A. R. Sich; GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 218 Second ANS Workshop on the Safety of Soviet-Designed Nuclear Power Plants, R. A. Bari; 234 Elements of a Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, C. M. Hopper; 243 Rickover, Excellence, and Criticality Safety Programs, R. E. Wilson; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 249 Transient Analysis of the PIUS Advanced Reactor Design with the TRAC-PF1/MOD2 Code, B. E. Boyack, J. L Steiner, S. C. Harmony, H. J. Stumpf, and J. F. Lime; 278 The Hierarchy-By-Interval Approach to Identifying Important Models that Need Improvement in Severe-Accident Simulation Codes, T. J. Heames, M. Khatib-Rahbar, J. E. Kelly, R. P. Jenks-Johnson, and Y.-S. Chen; 290 RELAP5/MOD3 Code Coupling Model, R. P. Martin; 299 Missiles Caused by Severe Pressurized-Water Reactor Accidents, R. Krieg; DESIGN FEATURES: 310 Validation of COMMIX with Westinghouse AP-600 PCCS Test Data, J. G. Sun, T. H. Chien, J. Ding, and W T. Sha; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 321 Spent Nuclear Fuel Characterization for a Bounding Reference Assembly for the Receiving Basin for Off-Site Fuel, S. D. Kahook, R. L. Garrett, L. R. Canas, and M J. Beckum; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 332 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION INFORMATION AND ANALYSES: 335 Reactor Coolant System Blowdown at Wolf Creek on September 17, 1994, J. V. Kauffman and S. L. Israel; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 344 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Oueener; 349 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1995; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 320 Symposium on Acceptability of Risk From Radiation—Application to Manned Space Flight; 320 24th DOE/NRC Nuclear Air Cleaning and Treatment Conference; 361 Radiation Biology and Radiation Protection— Modern Developments and Tendencies in Radiation Biology; 362 1997 IEEE Sixth Conference on Human Factors and Power Plants; 354 The Authors; 360 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol. 36.

05 NUCLEAR FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Dynamic Tripolar Strategic Balance: A Net Assessment (Workshop Summary)

On December 9-10, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “The Dynamic Tripolar Strategic Balance: A Net Assessment.” The discussion was guided by the following key questions: • By what metrics should the strategic balance be assessed? • How dynamic is the balance? How fragile? • Is the United States gaining strategic advantage, losing it, or holding steady, overall? • In order to gain new advantages or re-gain advantages lost, can or should the United States prioritize some domains and accept more risk in others? If so, which ones?

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2026

Technical Justifications for Outdoor Bulk Gaseous Hydrogen Storage Setback Distances

Setback distances define a prescribed distance between a potentially hazardous system and different types of other systems, people, buildings, or materials that may be exposed to that hazard. Riskinformed separation distances are not meant to completely eliminate risk, but rather to limit the risk to an acceptable level. A sensitivity study of risk suggested that a leak size of 3% of the pipe cross-sectional area would be a conservative but reasonable basis. Calculation of the setback distances for gaseous hydrogen was done in a deterministic manner, using a selected leak size and harm criteria for each group of exposures. Harm criteria have been updated to better reflect the exposure types under consideration, and to be consistent with setback distances for liquid hydrogen. The resulting setback distance values are primarily driven by radiative heat flux values for all exposure groups. For the typical pipe sizes, the setback distances slightly increase compared to the previous version of NFPA 2.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI1995

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 36, No. 2, July-December 1995]

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Guardbanding Methods for Calibration and Product Acceptance

The Primary Standards Lab employs guardbanding methods to reduce risk of false acceptance in calibration when test uncertainty ratios are low. Similarly, production agencies guardband their requirements to reduce false accept rates in product acceptance. The root-sum-square guardbanding method is recommended by PSL, but many other guardbanding methods have been proposed in literature or implemented in commercial software. This report analyzes the false accept and reject rates resulting from the most common guardbanding methods. It is shown that the root-sum-square method and the Dobbert Managed Guardband strategy are similar and both are suitable for calibration and product acceptance work in the NSE.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the compatibility of established methods with emerging artificial intelligence and machine learning methods for disaster risk analysis

Abstract There is growing interest in leveraging advanced analytics, including artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), for disaster risk analysis (RA) applications. These emerging methods offer unprecedented abilities to assess risk in settings where threats can emerge and transform quickly by relying on “learning” through datasets. There is a need to understand these emerging methods in comparison to the more established set of risk assessment methods commonly used in practice. These existing methods are generally accepted by the risk community and are grounded in use across various risk application areas. The next frontier in RA with emerging methods is to develop insights for evaluating the compatibility of those risk methods with more recent advancements in AI/ML, particularly with consideration of usefulness, trust, explainability, and other factors. This article leverages inputs from RA and AI experts to investigate the compatibility of various risk assessment methods, including both established methods and an example of a commonly used AI‐based method for disaster RA applications. This article utilizes empirical evidence from expert perspectives to support key insights on those methods and the compatibility of those methods. This article will be of interest to researchers and practitioners in risk‐analytics disciplines who leverage AI/ML methods.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Field Design Concept for Second Interaction Region of the Electron-Ion Collider

Efficient realization of the scientific potential of the Electron Ion Collider (EIC) calls for addition of a future second Interaction Region (2nd IR) and a detector in the RHIC IR8 region after the EIC project completion. The second IR and detector are needed to independently cross-check the results of the first detector, and to provide measurements with complementary acceptance. The available space in the existing RHIC IR8 and maximum fields achievable with NbTi superconducting magnet technology impose constraints on the 2nd IR performance. Since commissioning of the 2nd IR is envisioned in a few years after the first IR, such a long time frame allows for more R&D on the Nb₃Sn magnet technology. Thus, it could provide a potential alternative technology choice for the 2nd IR magnets. Presently, we are exploring its potential benefits for the 2nd IR performance, such as improvement of the luminosity and acceptance, and are also assessing the technical risks associated with use of Nb₃Sn magnets. In this paper, we present the current progress of this work.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Implementing an Objectives-Driven, Risk-Informed, and Case-Assured Approach to Safety and Mission Success at NASA

NASA is developing a “Standard for Assurance of Space Flight Safety and Mission Success” that implements an objectives-driven, risk-informed, and case-assured approach to safety and mission success (S&MS) for NASA space flight programs and projects. The standard aligns with the philosophy of risk leadership that has recently been established in NASA policy to assure acceptable levels of flight crew safety and mission success risk. It is consistent with existing NASA risk management requirements and is compatible with NASA program management and systems engineering requirements. The methodology described in the standard is presented in terms of an S&MS assurance framework that is designed to allow substantial flexibility in the specific means by which programs and projects achieve acceptable mission S&MS risk. Such flexibility is necessary to accommodate the increasingly broad range of acquisition strategies employed by NASA, including commercial transportation services, as well as to accommodate the increasingly rapid evolution of space flight-related technologies and practices. A key feature of the S&MS assurance framework is the specification of S&MS success criteria for each life-cycle review (LCR). The S&MS assurance case is structured around these criteria, the satisfaction of which indicates that the program/project is adhering to the S&MS risk posture. This enables the evolving S&MS assurance case to be used as a fundamental program/project submittal at each LCR, where its inherent structure of argument, supported by evidence, directly supports the evaluation of the program/project with respect to the S&MS success criteria, and by extension, the S&MS risk posture. As such, the S&MS assurance case is integral to program/project systems engineering, risk management, and S&MS oversight activities, and provides the principal basis for S&MS risk acceptance by the Decision Authority throughout the program/project life cycle.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of Cyber-Informed Engineering for Protecting BESS

This white paper synthesizes an array of crucial grid services provided by BESS technology, assesses its architecture and communications, and presents a case study for analysis against the principles introduced by Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). Furthermore, in walking through the analysis, this paper presents a framework to evaluate risks and solutions when considering BESS components. Asset owners and buyers could perform this analysis to assess their BESS product implementations, alternative inverter-based resources (IBR), and energy management systems (EMS). Battery systems fulfill various roles contingent on the unique market demands and the specific challenges presented by regional grid infrastructures. These roles also vary due to the differing utility models for ownership and operation, which are adapted to meet regional and local capabilities and requirements. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for adversaries to exploit knowledge of battery operational patterns to orchestrate decisive attacks. However, the security of operational data for these systems may not be the primary vulnerability, as much of this information is already well-understood within the community. Applying a modest degree of subject matter expertise can often yield valuable predictions regarding how a battery will respond under certain conditions, such as grid emergencies, high or low-temperature days, Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events, and outages. The operational characteristics of batteries are well-documented, and their capabilities, including the risks associated with misoperation and the resulting consequences, are published and understood within the industry. CIE practices represent the next step in gaining functional assurance and providing an acceptable level of risk, regardless of whether a battery vendor can support a trusted and validated supply chain. While this issue has exacerbated supply chain challenges, it is not an isolated condition. This foreign supply route is the primary source of BESS for the U.S. market. Significant efforts are underway through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) to change that. Still, strategic short-term operational mitigations are needed to ensure the security of our operational technology (OT) systems, which are enhanced by instilling trust and are separate from vendors implementing CIE principles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Developing and Implementing Risk-Based Research Safety at Argonne National Laboratory

Facilities operated by the US Department of Energy (DOE) are required to have extensive worker safety and health programs by regulation. Here we describe how Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has implemented the DOE requirements to bring the Laboratory’s multidisciplinary research risk to an acceptable level to safely execute ANL’s mission to perform cutting-edge research.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wood-to-Fuel Demonstration Project for California's Transportation Sector using Autothermal Pyrolysis (Non-Proprietary Summary Process Hazard Assessment)

Frontline has prioritized personnel safety, equipment preservation, and environmental protection throughout the design process of the autothermal pyrolysis unit. To facilitate a safe design, Frontline completed an informal hazards and operability (HAZOP) study and a formal HAZOP study, and employ management of change procedures. The result of these safety procedures is a plant that will function in a safe manner with a limited and acceptable amount of risk. Frontline took an approach it used in previous projects to execute a preliminary, internally facilitated hazards and operability (HAZOP) study. While this HAZOP study was performed without any subsequent change tracking, it enables a group of well-trained engineers to consider the safety implications of each part of the plant in a thorough and methodical manner. Frontline chose to bring in a pyrolysis consultant (Daren Daugaard of Burning Oak Energy) to participate in the review. Following the preliminary HAZOP and once the detailed design work was nearing completion, Frontline performed a formal HAZOP with a third-party facilitator, Jason Stittleburg of Novetus Engineering. Although the plant is not subject to process safety management (PSM) requirements, this formal HAZOP was performed in accordance with OSHA regulations deemed reasonable for PSM. Finally, after the formal HAZOP was conducted, Frontline maintained a safe system by implementing and following management of change procedures on each substantial change to the process. Frontline has kept a record of each subsequent change made to the formal HAZOP P&IDs. The process hazard assessment process allowed Frontline to find and correct several unacceptable configurations within the plant.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantitative evaluation of common cause failures in high safety-significant safety-related digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants

Digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems at nuclear power plants (NPPs) have many advantages over analog systems. They are proven to be more reliable, cheaper, and easier to maintain given obsolescence of analog components. However, they also pose new engineering and technical challenges, such as possibility of common cause failures (CCFs) unique to digital systems. Here this paper proposes a Platform for Risk Assessment of DI&C (PRADIC) that is developed by Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A methodology for evaluation of software CCFs in high safety-significant safety-related DI&C systems of NPPs was developed as part of the framework. The framework integrates three stages of a typical risk assessment—qualitative hazard analysis and quantitative reliability and consequence analyses. The quantified risks compared with respective acceptance criteria provide valuable insights for system architecture alternatives allowing design optimization in terms of risk reduction and cost savings. A comprehensive case study performed to demonstrate the framework's capabilities is documented here in this paper. Results show that the PRADIC is a powerful tool capable to identify potential digital-based CCFs, estimate their probabilities, and evaluate their impacts on system and plant safety.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Beryllium disease among construction trade workers at Department of Energy nuclear sites: A follow‐up

Abstract Background Construction workers at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facilities are screened to identify DOE‐related occupational illnesses, including beryllium sensitization (BeS) and chronic beryllium disease (CBD). The study objectives were to estimate beryllium disease risks and the CBD claims acceptance rate in the energy workers' benefits program. Methods Workers diagnosed with BeS via beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test (BeLPT) included in screening examinations were interviewed about subsequent diagnosis of CBD. We estimated the proportion who developed CBD based on the ratio of CBD cases, based on self‐reported compensation claim status, to all workers with BeS interviewed. We used stratified analyses to explore trends in disease frequency by age, race, sex, DOE employment duration, site, trade group, and cigarette smoking history. Results Between 1998 and 2020, 21,854 workers received a BeLPT; 262 (1.20%) had BeS (two abnormals or one abnormal plus one borderline test); 212 (0.97%) had a single abnormal BeLPT. Of 177 BeS workers interviewed, 35 (19.8%) reported an accepted CBD compensation claim. The claims acceptance rate among BeS workers increased with years of DOE employment, from 8.4% with <5 years to 33.3% for >25 or more years. Five of 68 interviewed workers with a single positive BeLPT reported CBD claim acceptance; an additional CBD case was confirmed by chart review (8.8%). Conclusions Years of DOE work predict the risk of developing CBD among those sensitized and getting a claim for CBD accepted. Ongoing surveillance and increased awareness of the risk of beryllium exposure and CBD as an occupational disease among construction workers are needed.

Cloeren, Marianne↗