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Risk management for the Space Exploration Initiative

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a quantitative engineering process that provides the analytic structure and decision-making framework for total programmatic risk management. Ideally, it is initiated in the conceptual design phase and used throughout the program life cycle. Although PRA was developed for assessment of safety, reliability, and availability risk, it has far greater application. Throughout the design phase, PRA can guide trade-off studies among system performance, safety, reliability, cost, and schedule. These studies are based on the assessment of the risk of meeting each parameter goal, with full consideration of the uncertainties. Quantitative trade-off studies are essential, but without full identification, propagation, and display of uncertainties, poor decisions may result. PRA also can focus attention on risk drivers in situations where risk is too high. For example, if safety risk is unacceptable, the PRA prioritizes the risk contributors to guide the use of resources for risk mitigation. PRA is used in the Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) Program. To meet the stringent requirements of the SEI mission, within strict budgetary constraints, the PRA structure supports informed and traceable decision-making. This paper briefly describes the SEI PRA process.

Buchbinder, Ben↗

NASA Propulsion Sub-System Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

NASA's exploration roadmap is focused on developing technologies and performing precursor missions to advance the state of the art for eventual human missions to Mars. One of the key components of this roadmap is various robotic missions to Near-Earth Objects, the Moon, and Mars to fill in some of the strategic knowledge gaps. The Resource Prospector (RP) project is one of these robotic precursor activities in the roadmap. RP is a multi-center and multi-institution project to investigate the polar regions of the Moon in search of volatiles. The mission is rated Class D and is approximately 10 days, assuming a five day direct Earth to Moon transfer. Because of the mission cost constraint, a trade study of the propulsion concepts was conducted with a focus on available low-cost hardware for reducing cost in development, while technical risk, system mass, and technology advancement requirements were also taken into consideration. The propulsion system for the lander is composed of a braking stage providing a high thrust to match the lander's velocity with the lunar surface and a lander stage performing the final lunar descent. For the braking stage, liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid methane (LCH4) propulsion systems, derived from the Morpheus experimental lander, and storable bi-propellant systems, including the 4th stage Peacekeeper (PK) propulsion components and Space Shuttle orbital maneuvering engine (OME), and a solid motor were considered for the study. For the lander stage, the trade study included miniaturized Divert Attitude Control System (DACS) thrusters (Missile Defense Agency (MDA) heritage), their enhanced thruster versions, ISE-100 and ISE-5, and commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware. The lowest cost configuration of using the solid motor and the PK components while meeting the requirements was selected. The reference concept of the lander is shown in Figure 1. In the current reference configuration, the solid stage is the primary provider of delta-V. It will generate 15,000-lbf of thrust with a single burn of ~ 80's seconds. The lander stage is a bi-propellant, pressure-regulated, pulsing liquid propulsion system to perform all other functions.

Trinh, Huu P.↗

NASA Propulsion Concept Studies and Risk Reduction Activities for Resource Prospector Lander

The Resource Prospector mission is to investigate the Moon's polar regions in search of volatiles. The government-version lander concept for the mission is composed of a braking stage and a liquid-propulsion lander stage. A propulsion trade study concluded with a solid rocket motor for the braking stage while using the 4th-stage Peacekeeper (PK) propulsion components for the lander stage. The mechanical design of the liquid propulsion system was conducted in concert with the lander structure design. A propulsion cold-flow test article was fabricated and integrated into a lander development structure, and a series of cold flow tests were conducted to characterize the fluid transient behavior and to collect data for validating analytical models. In parallel, RS-34 PK thrusters to be used on the lander stage were hot-fire tested in vacuum conditions as part of risk reduction activities.

Trinh, Huu P.↗

Medical Resource Set Bulky Item Trade Space Analysis for Spaceflight Medical Risk

The NASA engineering community utilizes event-driven and fault-tree probabilistic techniques to classify risks in the space environment by taking advantage of the inherent knowledge of complex spaceflight system design and testing to quantify failure risk. In harmonizing the risk of human space flight, answering the question of ‘How do we balance health, performance and resource risks with other engineering risks on long duration space missions?’ remains a deeply challenging and largely qualitative practice. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is one aspect of the efforts by NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) to quantitatively assess the impact of health and performance risk. One of MEDPRAT’s key features is its high degree of computational efficiency. Coupled with the HRP High Performance Compute cluster located at NASA’s Glenn Research Center, MEDPRAT runs millions of simulated missions in a matter of minutes. This degree of computational efficiency provides the novel opportunity to explore the relationship between medical set mass, volume, and medical resource size. Of particular interest for future human spaceflight missions are ‘bulky’ items, medical resources like devices, which occupy a large portion of the small, allocated mass and volume for the medical set leaving less room for other resources. This talk will present results showing the quantitative impact of forced inclusion of several bulky items across a variety of medical kit constraints, and the effect that a potential research investment into reducing the bulky item mass and volume may have on risk.

Lauren Mcintyre↗

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗

Wind Tunnel Management and Resource Optimization: A Systems Modeling Approach

Time, money, and, personnel are becoming increasingly scarce resources within government agencies due to a reduction in funding and the desire to demonstrate responsible economic efficiency. The ability of an organization to plan and schedule resources effectively can provide the necessary leverage to improve productivity, provide continuous support to all projects, and insure flexibility in a rapidly changing environment. Without adequate internal controls the organization is forced to rely on external support, waste precious resources, and risk an inefficient response to change. Management systems must be developed and applied that strive to maximize the utility of existing resources in order to achieve the goal of "faster, cheaper, better". An area of concern within NASA Langley Research Center was the scheduling, planning, and resource management of the Wind Tunnel Enterprise operations. Nine wind tunnels make up the Enterprise. Prior to this research, these wind tunnel groups did not employ a rigorous or standardized management planning system. In addition, each wind tunnel unit operated from a position of autonomy, with little coordination of clients, resources, or project control. For operating and planning purposes, each wind tunnel operating unit must balance inputs from a variety of sources. Although each unit is managed by individual Facility Operations groups, other stakeholders influence wind tunnel operations. These groups include, for example, the various researchers and clients who use the facility, the Facility System Engineering Division (FSED) tasked with wind tunnel repair and upgrade, the Langley Research Center (LaRC) Fabrication (FAB) group which fabricates repair parts and provides test model upkeep, the NASA and LARC Strategic Plans, and unscheduled use of the facilities by important clients. Expanding these influences horizontally through nine wind tunnel operations and vertically along the NASA management structure greatly increases the complexity of developing a model that can be used for successfully implementing a standardized management planning tool. The objective of this study was to implement an Integrated Wind Tunnel Planning System to improve the operations within the aeronautics testing and research group, in particular Wind Tunnel Enterprise. The study included following steps: Conducted literature search and expert discussions (NASA and Old Dominion University faculty), Performed environmental scan of NASA Langley wind tunnel operations as foundation for problem definition. Established operation requirements and evaluation methodologies. Examined windtunnel operations to map out the common characteristics, critical components, and system structure. Reviewed and evaluated various project scheduling and management systems for implementation, Evaluated and implemented "Theory of Constraints (TOC)" project scheduling methodology at NASA Langley wind tunnel operations together with NASA staff.

Jacobs, Derya, A.↗

Derivation of Capabilities and Resources for Treating Medical Conditions in Deep Space

BACKGROUND: Medical care in spaceflight requires the adaptation of terrestrial standards to the constraints of the space environment. However, there is often conflict between the ideal resources required for treatment and diagnosis of a medical condition, and the constraints on their mass, volume, data needs, etc. This optimization of trades between medical risk and resources will be a significant challenge for deep space medical system design. METHODS: A team of physicians with a broad range of expertise reviewed the 120 medical conditions on the condition list for NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via analysis of Complex Tradespaces Medical Database (IMPACT-MD). Each team member was assigned a subset of conditions based on their experience and training. The assigned physician generated a proposed list of capabilities, definitions, and resources required to treat each condition based on terrestrial practice guidelines, medical literature, and subject matter expertise. Additional specialists were consulted for conditions where expertise was not present within the main group. The proposed list was then reviewed by the broader team and modified as needed to achieve consensus. Each capability and resource was then assigned parameters to define quantity required per medical event, necessity, training level required, and primacy order of any alternative resources. These capabilities and resources were placed into condition specific tables and delivered to a team of engineers who added mass and volume data for each specific resource and converted the table into a database for use as input to a computational model to simulate spaceflight (IMPACT) DISCUSSION: This process ensures that a minimum of three subject matter experts review and agree upon the scope of practice, medical diagnostic tools, and treatment modalities that would be necessary to address emergent and non-emergent conditions that may arise during spaceflight to inform requirements during the vehicle design phase. The method is scalable to any design reference mission and permits modification of the existing database as information, conditions or experience are added. By including specialists, generalists, and those with subject matter expertise in the spaceflight environment on the team, we ensure that the included capabilities represent a realistic and actionable foundation for planning deep space missions.

D R Levin↗

Baseline Medical System Translation for the Impact Medical Database

NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). Whereas IMM focuses on the resources and risks associated with International Space Station (ISS) and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions, IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. One of the services offered by IMM is a series of generic or baseline medical systems associated with typical mission types or DRMs (Design Reference Missions), such that requestors may prioritize questions pertaining to the mission itself over the medical supplies indicated by the model outputs for that DRM. In a mission focused request, the appropriate baseline medical system is used in place of a prepared or optimized medical kit. In preparation, an effort was undertaken to create baseline systems of medical resources within IMPACT suitable for typical DRMs. Using an existing baseline medical system within IMM’s Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) as a starting point, the resources found within the medical kit were compared to and substituted for equivalent resources available within the IMPACT MD (Medical Database). In consultation with clinicians with knowledge of IMPACT’s MD, each resource was matched as closely as possible to a similarly purposed resource in IMPACT, seeking to preserve the treatment capabilities and procedures offered by the IMM medical system while reconciling the differences in modeled resources and medical conditions between the models. To demonstrate the efficacy of this work, a prototype ISS medical system in IMPACT was translated from the baseline used in the IMM. The appropriate medical system was then run through its associated medical model to compare and validate the resultant risks and risk mitigation provided by each baseline ISS medical kit.

S Schwartz↗

Crowd Sourcing Medical Data Collection Using Medical Students

OBJECTIVE We undertook an upgrade of the Evidence Library database of NASA HRP’s Integrated Medical Model, assessing 120 medical conditions which integrate with a novel probabilistic risk assessment (IMPACT) tool of medical risk and resource utilization for long duration exploration human spaceflight. This data collection process included a selection of these conditions crowd sourced over one year via three 4-week medical student electives at the University of Colorado School of Medicine (IDPT 8059 Space Medicine: Human Spaceflight Factors & Medical Risk Assessment). Students undertook a rapid systematic review of each medical condition, under close preceptors with backgrounds in clinical medicine, library science, epidemiology, biostatistics, and evidence-based medicine. As part of the elective, students also received instruction in core space medicine concepts, evidence based medicine and problem based learning sessions as a flight surgeon supporting a simulated Mars mission. METHODS The list of 120 medical conditions includes both common, terrestrial illness/injury (epistaxis, diverticulitis) as well as spaceflight-specific ones (space adaptation conditions, EVA-related injuries). A rapid systematic review process was developed that would allow students to find the data for determining disease incidence/prevalence, return to definitive care (often a surrogate such as hospitalization rates), loss of crew life, and treatment duration. Each data point required a tailored, specialized search process using different databases and corresponding specialized search filters. Databases were selected on their ability to provide high quality literature in an efficient manner and prioritized by their ability to provide graded evidence via a set rubrics specific to human spaceflight. Students were responsible for performing all literature searches and identifying the highest quality available evidence for each data point. Completed student data sheets underwent initial review by faculty preceptors followed by a secondary editing review by the ExMC Clinical Science Team. RESULTS Over the course of three electives, approximately 105 medical conditions were researched by students using spreadsheets with pre-crafted search strategies. Overall, this process was successful in allowing students to perform the preponderance of work to update incidence, treatment duration, return to definitive care, and loss of crew life data points. Students were successful in running searches, identifying the necessary data points within the literature, and determining the types of terrestrial data that most aligns with the astronaut population for successful completion of their tasks. Limitations included variable student experience with search methodologies [PubMed], differing values of evidence grading [best practice evidence based medicine vs. relevant to spaceflight], and students’ unfamiliarity with spaceflight specific conditions. CONCLUSION Finding the relevant literature for medical conditions in spaceflight within terrestrial databases in a systematic method is time consuming and not intuitive. However, the stepwise process that balanced sensitivity with specificity allowed for students to be highly successful in a short amount of time. Additionally, as the process was refined over the course of three electives, preceptors were better able to anticipate where students were likely to encounter barriers, which allowed the course to be adjusted to account for certain data points needing more time for completion. This replicable process may be an efficient way to accomplish rapid systematic reviews for a large volume of data in a short amount of time.

J Lemery↗

DARPA/USAF/USN J-UCAS X-45A System Demonstration Program: A Review of Flight Test Site Processes and Personnel

The Joint Unmanned Combat Air Systems (J-UCAS) program is a collaborative effort between the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA), the US Air Force (USAF) and the US Navy (USN). Together they have reviewed X-45A flight test site processes and personnel as part of a system demonstration program for the UCAV-ATD Flight Test Program. The goal was to provide a disciplined controlled process for system integration and testing and demonstration flight tests. NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC) acted as the project manager during this effort and was tasked with the responsibilities of range and ground safety, the provision of flight test support and infrastructure and the monitoring of technical and engineering tasks. DFRC also contributed their engineering knowledge through their contributions in the areas of autonomous ground taxi control development, structural dynamics testing and analysis and the provision of other flight test support including telemetry data, tracking radars, and communications and control support equipment. The Air Force Flight Test Center acted at the Deputy Project Manager in this effort and was responsible for the provision of system safety support and airfield management and air traffic control services, among other supporting roles. The T-33 served as a J-UCAS surrogate aircraft and demonstrated flight characteristics similar to that of the the X-45A. The surrogate served as a significant risk reduction resource providing mission planning verification, range safety mission assessment and team training, among other contributions.

Cosentino, Gary B.↗

NASA Applied Sciences Program

Goal 1: Enhance Applications Research Advance the use of NASA Earth science in policy making, resource management and planning, and disaster response. Key Actions: Identify priority needs, conduct applied research to generate innovative applications, and support projects that demonstrate uses of NASA Earth science. Goal 2: Increase Collaboration Establish a flexible program structure to meet diverse partner needs and applications objectives. Key Actions: Pursue partnerships to leverage resources and risks and extend the program s reach and impact. Goal 3:Accelerate Applications Ensure that NASA s flight missions plan for and support applications goals in conjunction with their science goals, starting with mission planning and extending through the mission life cycle. Key Actions: Enable identification of applications early in satellite mission lifecycle and facilitate effective ways to integrate end-user needs into satellite mission planning

Irwin, Daniel↗

Investigating Risks Due to Artemis EVA Tempo Via Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Spaceflight operations pose unique challenges to crew health, safety, and resource management. As space agencies and private companies continue to push the boundaries of human exploration, it is essential to understand the risks associated with Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) and develop strategies to mitigate them. The tempo at which EVAs are conducted – the total number and frequency of these activities – can have a profound impact on medical risks, resource consumption, and overall mission success. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) provides a powerful framework for evaluating complex systems and identifying potential hazards. Our work employs the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) [1] to simulate mission events, occurrence and treatment of medical conditions, and track the utilization of resources. Coupled with the Evidence Library [2], a medical evidence base for exploration-class missions developed by the Exploration Medical Capability within NASA’s Human Research Program, we can estimate these risks with increased fidelity and optimize medical kit contents to meet specific mission requirements. This presentation provides a detailed examination of how EVA tempo influences medical risk estimates for a lunar surface design reference mission. A comprehensive analysis is conducted to assess the additional mass and volume burden imposed on medical kits required to maintain adequate levels of risk mitigation. Furthermore, we estimate the distribution of the number of successful EVAs completed based on the level of task impairment imposed by medical events and flight rules related to specific medical events, such as decompression sickness.

Modeling↗

Success Criteria and Risk Management for the New Millennium Program

The NASA New Millennium Program (NMP) is a technology development and validation program that will flight-validate advanced, new technologies with space flight applications. NMP's purpose is twofold. First, it will develop technologies that will enable future spacecraft to be smaller, more capable and reliable, and to be launched more frequently. Second, it will validate the technologies in flight to reduce the risks to future science missions in flying these technologies for the first time. To measure the program's success, NMP has devised a set of criteria that stresses the relevance of technologies selected for flight validation to NASA's 21st-century science mission needs. Also, NMP has instituted a 'risk management' policy, where, through a combination of adequate resources and early risk assessment and risk mitigation plans for the technologies, the overall risk of the NMP flights can be rendered acceptable.

New↗

A get started approach for resource processing

A low-risk, high-value approach to implementing resource processing is presented. The design utilizes processing plants at Deimos and Mars, a fueling depot in a Mars parking orbit, and small shuttles transferring crew and cargo between sites. The system fuels Mars ascent and descent states and the earth-return stage. Fueling at Mars reduces launch requirements by 25 percent, or, alternatively, enables the substitution of payload for fuel on a near 1:1 basis and thereby triples the payload delivered to Mars.

Giudici, Bob↗

Risk-based SMA for Cubesats

This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.

Small Satellites↗

The Integrated Medical Model: A Risk Assessment and Decision Support Tool for Space Flight Medical Systems

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) is a decision support tool that is useful to mission planners and medical system designers in assessing risks and designing medical systems for space flight missions. The IMM provides an evidence based approach for optimizing medical resources and minimizing risks within space flight operational constraints. The mathematical relationships among mission and crew profiles, medical condition incidence data, in-flight medical resources, potential crew functional impairments, and clinical end-states are established to determine probable mission outcomes. Stochastic computational methods are used to forecast probability distributions of crew health and medical resource utilization, as well as estimates of medical evacuation and loss of crew life. The IMM has been used in support of the International Space Station (ISS) medical kit redesign, the medical component of the ISS Probabilistic Risk Assessment, and the development of the Constellation Medical Conditions List. The IMM also will be used to refine medical requirements for the Constellation program. The IMM outputs for ISS and Constellation design reference missions will be presented to demonstrate the potential of the IMM in assessing risks, planning missions, and designing medical systems. The implementation of the IMM verification and validation plan will be reviewed. Additional planned capabilities of the IMM, including optimization techniques and the inclusion of a mission timeline, will be discussed. Given the space flight constraints of mass, volume, and crew medical training, the IMM is a valuable risk assessment and decision support tool for medical system design and mission planning.

Kerstman, Eric↗

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool [“IMPACT” sur la Conception du Système Médical avec un Outil d'Analyse des Risques]

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗

IMPACTing Medical System Design with a Risk Analysis Tool

Background: Following the success of Artemis I, NASA is preparing for human extended duration missions. Ongoing efforts are focused on mitigating mission-related risks, including those affecting crew health and performance. Communication latency, logistics of resupply and time frame of medical evacuation are barriers to provision of healthcare for these missions, especially with respect to constraints in mass, volume, and crew training. An in-depth assessment of medical risks, capabilities and resources for a specific mission design is necessary to determine an optimal balance that maximizes likelihood of mission success. Overview: IMPACT (Informed Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a dynamic tool designed to estimate medical risk and outcomes for a specific mission design. In its current iteration, a list of medical conditions selected based on likelihood of occurrence and/or consequence was linked to a set of clinical capabilities and resources necessary for diagnosis and management. A probabilistic risk analysis tool was then used to identify and estimate the likelihood and consequence of risks through the following outcome metrics: loss of crew life (inflight mortality due to medical conditions), need for medical evacuation (return to definitive care), and crew disability (task time affected based on how medical conditions influence the ability to perform specific exploration mission crew tasks). Finally, the model’s optimization algorithm provides recommendations for medical capabilities that maximize risk mitigation relative to mass and volume constraints. In the Spring of 2023, IMPACT was utilized to estimate outcome metrics for a design reference mission that would be representative of an extended duration Artemis mission. Notional data generated were then used to determine a recommended set of medical capabilities and resources relative to user-defined mass and volume constraints. A multidisciplinary team has also been updating IMPACT to strengthen the model’s fidelity. Figure 1 shows how updates to outcome metric inputs for the conditions resulted in different capability and resource allocation recommendations. Discussion: This presentation will discuss the IMPACT tool and share the latest data generated for a representative extended duration Artemis mission. Efforts to improve the fidelity of data generated by the model’s algorithm will also be discussed.

K A Shair↗