Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2009

Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors as Predictors of Cardiovascular Events in the U.S. Astronaut Corps

Risk prediction equations from the Framingham Heart Study are commonly used to predict the absolute risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and coronary heart disease (CHD) related death. Predicting CHD-related events in the U.S. astronaut corps presents a monumental challenge, both because astronauts tend to live healthier lifestyles and because of the unique cardiovascular stressors associated with being trained for and participating in space flight. Traditional risk factors may not hold enough predictive power to provide a useful indicator of CHD risk in this unique population. It is important to be able to identify individuals who are at higher risk for CHD-related events so that appropriate preventive care can be provided. This is of special importance when planning long duration missions since the ability to provide advanced cardiac care and perform medical evacuation is limited. The medical regimen of the astronauts follows a strict set of clinical practice guidelines in an effort to ensure the best care. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the utility of the Framingham risk score (FRS), low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and high-density lipoprotein levels, blood pressure, and resting pulse as predictors of CHD-related death and MI in the astronaut corps, using Cox regression. Of these factors, only two, LDL and pulse at selection, were predictive of CHD events (HR(95% CI)=1.12 (1.00-1.25) and HR(95% CI)=1.70 (1.05-2.75) for every 5-unit increase in LDL and pulse, respectively). Since traditional CHD risk factors may lack the specificity to predict such outcomes in astronauts, the development of a new predictive model, using additional measures such as electron-beam computed tomography and carotid intima-media thickness ultrasound, is planned for the future.

Halm, M. K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Circulating miRNA Signature Predicts Health Risks Associated with Radiation and Microgravity

The many known health risks currently associated with space travel include increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, central nervous system related diseases, muscle degeneration, and changes with host-gut microbiome interactions that can have profound impact with these and other health risks. The majority of the risk from space travel stem of the two components of the space environment which are microgravity and radiation. From our earlier work (Beheshti et al, PLOS One, 2018), we predicted that there is a systemic component of the host that causes general increased health risks due to spaceflight driven by a circulating microRNA (miRNA) signature consisting of 13 miRNAs that directly regulates both p53 and TGF1. MiRNAs are small non-coding RNA molecules with a negative and post-transcriptional regulation on gene expression) are increasingly recognized as major systemic regulators of responses to stressors, including microgravity, oxidative stress, and DNA damage. In addition, due to the size and stability of miRNAs, it is known that miRNAs can circulate throughout the body and have been found in the majority of the bodily fluids including blood, urine, saliva, and tears. Here, we start to dissect the actual impact of this miRNA signature on both the radiation and microgravity components and prove that this miRNA signature actually exists in the circulation of a host. To achieve this, we obtained multiple tissues including, serum, liver, and spleen and utilizing droplet digital PCR (ddPCR), we start to show how this circulating miRNA signature impacts which component of the spaceflight. The tissue was obtained from experiments performed on C57BL/6 male mice (N=10 for each condition) that were hindlimb unloaded (HU) to simulated microgravity, irradiated with 2Gy gamma (IR), HU plus IR, and control mice under normal conditions. It was shown that these miRNAs were present in the serum as predicted by the in silico prediction from our earlier predictions. The HU vs Controls show significant increases of the predicted miRNAs in the serum for more than half of the miRNA signature, with remaining miRNAs increasing comparing to the controls close to statistical significance. IR vs control mice showed increases for the miRNAs, but not has pronounced as the HU conditions. Finally, the combination of the HU+IR vs controls showed increases for the majority of the miRNA signature. The data indicates that the miRNA signature originally predicted through in silico methods is mainly associated with the microgravity component and is circulating throughout the host resulting in a systemic impact of the miRNAs on the host. These miRNAs are shown in the literature to potentially increase health risks associated with several diseases. In addition, we have begun testing the potential of utilizing antagonists to this miRNA signature to act as a potential countermeasure to mitigate radiation impact on the organism. This work demonstrates for the first time the potential of a minimally invasive novel biomarker and countermeasure that can be used to mitigate both radiation and microgravity effects.

Beheshti, Afshin↗
NASA NTRS2015

Rift Valley Fever Prediction and Risk Mapping: 2014-2015 Season

Extremes in either direction (+-) of precipitation temperature have significant implications for disease vectors and pathogen emergence and spread Magnitude of ENSO influence on precipitation temperature cannot be currently predicted rely on average history and patterns. Timing of event and emergence disease can be exploited (GAP) in to undertake vector control and preparedness measures. Currently - no risk for ecologically-coupled RVFV activity however we need to be vigilant during the coming fall season due the ongoing buildup of energy in the central Pacific Ocean. Potential for the dual-use of the RVF Monitor system for other VBDs Need to invest in early ground surveillance and the use of rapid field diagnostic capabilities for vector identification and virus isolation.

RVF↗
NASA NTRS2009

It's Not a Big Sky After All: Justification for a Close Approach Prediction and Risk Assessment Process

There is often skepticism about the need for Conjunction Assessment from mission operators that invest in the "big sky theory", which states that the likelihood of a collision is so small that it can be neglected. On 10 February 2009, the collision between Iridium 3; and Cosmos 2251 provided an indication that this theory is invalid and that a CA process should be considered for all missions. This paper presents statistics of the effect of the Iridium/Cosmos collision on NASA's Earth Science Constellation as well as results of analyses which characterize the debris environment for NASA's robotic missions.

Newman, Lauri Kraft↗
NASA NTRS2012

Remote Sensing Contributions to Prediction and Risk Assessment of Natural Disasters Caused by Large Scale Rift Valley Fever Outbreaks

Remotely sensed vegetation measurements for the last 30 years combined with other climate data sets such as rainfall and sea surface temperatures have come to play an important role in the study of the ecology of arthropod-borne diseases. We show that epidemics and epizootics of previously unpredictable Rift Valley fever are directly influenced by large scale flooding associated with the El Ni o/Southern Oscillation. This flooding affects the ecology of disease transmitting arthropod vectors through vegetation development and other bioclimatic factors. This information is now utilized to monitor, model, and map areas of potential Rift Valley fever outbreaks and is used as an early warning system for risk reduction of outbreaks to human and animal health, trade, and associated economic impacts. The continuation of such satellite measurements is critical to anticipating, preventing, and managing disease epidemics and epizootics and other climate-related disasters.

Anyamba, Assaf↗
NASA NTRS2013

PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessments) Participation versus Validation

Probabilistic Risk Assessments (PRAs) are performed for projects or programs where the consequences of failure are highly undesirable. PRAs primarily address the level of risk those projects or programs posed during operations. PRAs are often developed after the design has been completed. Design and operational details used to develop models include approved and accepted design information regarding equipment, components, systems and failure data. This methodology basically validates the risk parameters of the project or system design. For high risk or high dollar projects, using PRA methodologies during the design process provides new opportunities to influence the design early in the project life cycle to identify, eliminate or mitigate potential risks. Identifying risk drivers before the design has been set allows the design engineers to understand the inherent risk of their current design and consider potential risk mitigation changes. This can become an iterative process where the PRA model can be used to determine if the mitigation technique is effective in reducing risk. This can result in more efficient and cost effective design changes. PRA methodology can be used to assess the risk of design alternatives and can demonstrate how major design changes or program modifications impact the overall program or project risk. PRA has been used for the last two decades to validate risk predictions and acceptability. Providing risk information which can positively influence final system and equipment design the PRA tool can also participate in design development, providing a safe and cost effective product.

DeMott, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2018

Using Historical Cost and Schedule Data to Predict Cost Risk for Future NASA X-Planes

Accurate cost estimates help managers understand critical cost-risk information, which improves their perception of the impact project changes have on the budget and schedule. This research project examined buffer reserves, a key aspect of cost estimation. The main focus of this project was to utilize historical data to calculate the extent to which NASA programs typically exceed their original buffers.

cost analysis↗
NASA NTRS2020

Circulating miRNA Signature Predicts Health Risks Associated with Cancer and Spaceflight

Biological risks associated with space radiation and microgravity are major concerns for long-term space travel. Through a Systems Biology approach, our previous NASA work has shown both TGF signaling pathways and miRNAs have a critical impact on defining health risks with and without space irradiation. We hypothesize that circulating microRNA (miRNA) signatures are driving microvascular disease and muscle degeneration associated with accelerating aging and will be enhanced by exposure to the space environment (radiation and microgravity). We are investigating this hypothesis with both in vivo and in vitro models to test novel antagonist therapies to these miRNA signatures as countermeasures to reduce space radiation-induced health risks. A comprehensive Systems Biology approach is utilized to examine the influence by high atomic number by high (H) atomic number (Z) and energy (E) (HZE) irradiation. To simulate low-dose exposure due to galactic cosmic rays (GCR), we used ions, energy, and doses determined by a NASA consensus formula of 7 different ions to represent GCR (referred to as GCR sim model). To similate high-dose radiation exposure due to solar particle events (SPE), we used a solar particle event (SPE) sim model which gave a total dose of 1Gy protons with energy ranges from 50MeV to 150MeV. C57BL/6 wild-type female mice were utilized for the irradiations with our established simulated microgravity model (hindlimb suspension model) and an in vitro 3D microvasculature tissue model under simulated microgravity (clinostat) conditions was also irradiated. To expand on the circulating miRNA signature determined from our preliminary data, we determined a group of conserved miRNAs which are commonly being regulated in the majority of the organs and tissues throughout the host using our established techniques. MiRNA-sequencing was done on serum (at time of sacrifice), liver, heart, and muscle (soleus muscle) tissue for all radiation groups. Additional validation of the key miRNAs was performed by droplet digital PCR (ddPCR). This revealed a key circulating miRNA signature (consisting of multiple miRNAs) impacting cardiovascular and muscular disease risk. Further in vitro experiments with CRISPR/Cas9 system to knockout the key miRNA signatures, novel self-delivering antagomirs, overexpression of the miRNAs test the functional impact of the miRNA signatures on both microvascular disease and muscle degeneration due to space irradiation. The current work has started to allow the possible development of a novel minimally invasive miRNA based radioprotector to be used as a countermeasure for space radiation. Collectively, understanding of how whole body space radiation impacts microvascular and tissue degeneration through circulating miRNAs will greatly enhance health risk prognostication and provide possible new mechanisms for protection against space radiation. This work is supported by the Translational Research Institute through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A (T-0404) awarded to AB.

Beheshti, Afshin↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

The goal of the National Aeronautics and Space Agency and the Space Radiation Project is to ensure that astronauts can safely live and work in the space radiation environment. The space radiation environment poses both acute and chronic risks to crew health and safety, but unlike some other aspects of space travel, space radiation exposure has clinically relevant implications for the lifetime of the crew. The term safely means that risks are sufficiently understood such that acceptable limits on mission, post-mission and multi-mission consequences (for example, excess lifetime fatal cancer risk) can be defined. The Space Radiation Project strategy has several elements. The first element is to use a peer-reviewed research program to increase our mechanistic knowledge and genetic capabilities to develop tools for individual risk projection, thereby reducing our dependency on epidemiological data and population-based risk assessment. The second element is to use the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory to provide a ground-based facility to study the understanding of health effects/mechanisms of damage from space radiation exposure and the development and validation of biological models of risk, as well as methods for extrapolation to human risk. The third element is a risk modeling effort that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects. To understand the biological basis for risk, we must also understand the physical aspects of the crew environment. Thus the fourth element develops computer codes to predict radiation transport properties, evaluate integrated shielding technologies and provide design optimization recommendations for the design of human space systems. Understanding the risks and determining methods to mitigate the risks are keys to a successful radiation protection strategy.

Corbin, Barbara J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

NASA Strategy to Safely Live and Work in the Space Radiation Environment

This viewgraph document reviews the radiation environment that is a significant potential hazard to NASA's goals for space exploration, of living and working in space. NASA has initiated a Peer reviewed research program that is charged with arriving at an understanding of the space radiation problem. To this end NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) was constructed to simulate the harsh cosmic and solar radiation found in space. Another piece of the work was to develop a risk modeling tool that integrates the results from research efforts into models of human risk to reduce uncertainties in predicting risk of carcinogenesis, central nervous system damage, degenerative tissue disease, and acute radiation effects acute radiation effects.

Cucinotta, Francis↗
NASA NTRS2004

Biodosimetry as a New Paradigm for Determination of Radiation Risks and Risk-Mitigation in Astronauts Exposed to Space Radiation

Predicting risk of cancer in astronauts exposed to space radiation is challenging partly because uncertainties of absorption of dose and the processing of dose-related damage at the cellular level degrade the confidence of predicting the expression of cancer. Cellular biodosimeters that simultaneously report: 1) the quantity of absorbed dose after exposure to ionizing radiation, 2) the quality of radiation delivering that dose, and 3) the macromolecular profiles related to malignant transformation in cells absorbing that dose would therefore be useful. An approach to such a multiparametric biodosimeter will be reported, This is the demonstration of two dose-responsive field-effects of enhanced protein-expression. In one case, expression of keratin 18 (K18) in cultures of human mammary epithelial cells (HMEC) irradiated with cesium-137 gamma-rays is enhanced following exposure of log phase cells to relatively low doses of 30 to 90 cGy. K18 has been reported by a marker for tumor staging and for apoptosis. In the second case, expression of connexin 43 (Cx43) is increased in irradiated stationary phase cultures of HMEC, indicating enhanced formation of gap junctions. Gap junctions have been reported to be involved in bystander effects following irradiation. It is a biodosimeter for assessing radiogenic damage. It is suggested further that such biomolecular dosimetry may introduce a new paradigm for assessing cancer risk and risk-mitigation in individuals, a requirement for managing radiation health in astronauts during extended missions in space. This new paradigm is built upon the statistical power provided by the use of functional genomics and proteomics represented in combined gene- and protein-expression assays.

Richmond, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project

The purpose of the Space Mission Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) Project is to extend current ground-based HRA risk prediction techniques to a long-duration, space-based tool. Ground-based HRA methodology has been shown to be a reasonable tool for short-duration space missions, such as Space Shuttle and lunar fly-bys. However, longer-duration deep-space missions, such as asteroid and Mars missions, will require the crew to be in space for as long as 400 to 900 day missions with periods of extended autonomy and self-sufficiency. Current indications show higher risk due to fatigue, physiological effects due to extended low gravity environments, and others, may impact HRA predictions. For this project, Safety & Mission Assurance (S&MA) will work with Human Health & Performance (HH&P) to establish what is currently used to assess human reliabiilty for human space programs, identify human performance factors that may be sensitive to long duration space flight, collect available historical data, and update current tools to account for performance shaping factors believed to be important to such missions. This effort will also contribute data to the Human Performance Data Repository and influence the Space Human Factors Engineering research risks and gaps (part of the HRP Program). An accurate risk predictor mitigates Loss of Crew (LOC) and Loss of Mission (LOM).The end result will be an updated HRA model that can effectively predict risk on long-duration missions.

Boyer, Roger↗
NASA NTRS2017

Why NASA and the Space Electronics Community Cares About Cyclotrons

NASA and the space community are faced with the harsh reality of operating electronic systems in the space radiation environment. Systems need to work reliably (as expected for as long as expected) and be available during critical operations such as docking or firing a thruster. This talk will provide a snapshot of the import of ground-based research on the radiation performance of electronics. Discussion topics include: 1) The space radiation environment hazard, 2) Radiation effects on electronics, 3) Simulation of effects with cyclotrons (and other sources), 4) Risk prediction for space missions, and, 5) Real-life examples of both ground-based testing and space-based anomalies and electronics performance. The talk will conclude with a discussion of the current state of radiation facilities in North America for ground-based electronics testing.

Risk prediction↗
NASA NTRS2005

Cognition in Space Workshop: Metrics and Models - 1

"Cognition in Space Workshop I: Metrics and Models" was the first in a series of workshops sponsored by NASA to develop an integrated research and development plan supporting human cognition in space exploration. The workshop was held in Chandler, Arizona, October 25-27, 2004. The participants represented academia, government agencies, and medical centers. This workshop addressed the following goal of the NASA Human System Integration Program for Exploration: to develop a program to manage risks due to human performance and human error, specifically ones tied to cognition. Risks range from catastrophic error to degradation of efficiency and failure to accomplish mission goals. Cognition itself includes memory, decision making, initiation of motor responses, sensation, and perception. Four subgoals were also defined at the workshop as follows: (1) NASA needs to develop a human-centered design process that incorporates standards for human cognition, human performance, and assessment of human interfaces; (2) NASA needs to identify and assess factors that increase risks associated with cognition; (3) NASA needs to predict risks associated with cognition; and (4) NASA needs to mitigate risk, both prior to actual missions and in real time. This report develops the material relating to these four subgoals.

Woolford, Barbara↗
NASA NTRS2020

Architecture and Information Requirements to Assess and Predict Flight Safety Risks During Highly Autonomous Urban Flight Operations

As aviation adopts new and increasingly complex operational paradigms, vehicle types, and technologies to broaden airspace capability and efficiency, maintaining a safe system will require recognition and timely mitigation of new safety issues as they emerge and before significant consequences occur. A shift toward a more predictive risk mitigation capability becomes critical to meet this challenge. In-time safety assurance comprises monitoring, assessment, and mitigation functions that proactively reduce risk in complex operational environments where the interplay of hazards may not be known (and therefore not accounted for) during design. These functions can also help to understand and predict emergent effects caused by the increased use of automation or autonomous functions that may exhibit unexpected non-deterministic behaviors. The envisioned monitoring and assessment functions can look for precursors, anomalies, and trends (PATs) by applying model-based and data-driven methods. Outputs would then drive downstream mitigation(s) if needed to reduce risk. These mitigations may be accomplished using traditional design revision processes or via operational (and sometimes automated) mechanisms. The latter refers to the ‘in-time’ aspect of the system concept. This report comprises architecture and information requirements and considerations toward enabling such a capability within the domain of low altitude highly autonomous urban flight operations. This domain may span, for example, public-use surveillance missions flown by small unmanned aircraft (e.g., infrastructure inspection, facility management, emergency response, law enforcement, and/or security) to transportation missions flown by larger aircraft that may carry passengers or deliver products. Caveat: Any stated requirements in this report should be considered initial requirements that are intended to drive research and development (R&D). These initial requirements are likely to evolve based on R&D findings, refinement of operational concepts, industry advances, and new industry or regulatory policies or standards related to safety assurance.

Young, Steven↗