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The idea behind this presentation is how the difference in definitions can change the application. 1. Look at history, concepts, and definitions. 2. Link the test uncertainty ratio (TUR) to measurement decision risk.
One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and its cousin, the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSI/NCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has also added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these changes might have on calibration service providers if these requirements are levied on them has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper looks at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.
One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.
We propose a filter bank consisting of an ordinary current-state extended Kalman filter, and two similar but constrained filters: one is constrained by a null hypothesis that the miss distance between two conjuncting spacecraft is inside their combined hard body radius at the predicted time of closest approach, and one is constrained by an alternative complementary hypothesis. The unconstrained filter is the basis of an initial screening for close approaches of interest. Once the initial screening detects a possibly risky conjunction, the unconstrained filter also governs measurement editing for all three filters, and predicts the time of closest approach. The constrained filters operate only when conjunctions of interest occur. The computed likelihoods of the innovations of the two constrained filters form a ratio for a Wald sequential probability ratio test. The Wald test guides risk mitigation maneuver decisions based on explicit false alarm and missed detection criteria. Since only current-state Kalman filtering is required to compute the innovations for the likelihood ratio, the present approach does not require the mapping of probability density forward to the time of closest approach. Instead, the hard-body constraint manifold is mapped to the filter update time by applying a sigma-point transformation to a projection function. Although many projectors are available, we choose one based on Lambert-style differential correction of the current-state velocity. We have tested our method using a scenario based on the Magnetospheric Multi-Scale mission, scheduled for launch in late 2014. This mission involves formation flight in highly elliptical orbits of four spinning spacecraft equipped with antennas extending 120 meters tip-to-tip. Eccentricities range from 0.82 to 0.91, and close approaches generally occur in the vicinity of perigee, where rapid changes in geometry may occur. Testing the method using two 12,000-case Monte Carlo simulations, we found the method achieved a missed detection rate of 0.1%, and a false alarm rate of 2%.
The observation that altitude decompression sickness (DCS) is associated with pain in the lower extremities is not new, although it is not a consistent finding. DCS in divers is generally in the upper body, an effect often attributed to non-loading of the body while immersed. In caisson workers, DCS is reported more in the lower extremities. Surprisingly, many researchers do not mention the location of DCS joint pain, apparently considering it to be random. This is not the case for the tissue ratios encountered in studying decompression associated with simulated EVA. In NASA/JSC tests, altitude DCS generally presented first in either the ankle, knee, or hip (83 percent = 73/88). There was a definite statistical relation between the maximum Spencer precordial Doppler Grade and the incidence of DCS in the extremity, although this is not meant to imply a casual relation between circulating gas bubbles and joint pain. The risk of DCS with Grade 4 was considerably higher than that of Grades 0 to 3. The DCS risk was independent of the 'tissue ratio.' There was a predominance of lower extremity DCS even when exercise was performed with the upper body. The reason for these locations we hypothesize to be attributed to the formation of tissue gas micronuclei from kinetic and tensile forces (stress-assisted nucleation) and are the result of the individuals ambulating in a 1g environment. Additionally, since these showers of Doppler bubbles can persist for hours, it is difficult to imagine that they are emanating solely from tendons and ligaments, the supposed site of joint pain. This follows from Henry's law linking the volume of joint tissue (the solvent) and the solubility coefficient of inert gas; there is volumetrically insufficient connective tissue to produce the prolonged release of gas bubbles. If gas bubbles are spawned and released from connective tissue, their volume is increased by those from muscle tissue. Therefore, the nexus between Doppler-detectable gas bubbles and joint-pain decompression sickness is essentially a statistical, rather than a direct, one.
This work adapts manufacturing and metrology industry standards to create a risk-based approach for the determination of electric propulsion performance specifications. The developed process is applied to 208 total thrust measurements acquired using three different NASA Hall Effect Rocket with Magnet Shielding (HERMeS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) 12.5-kW Hall thrusters in three different test facilities in order to generate thrust specifications at the 300 V/6.25 kW, 400 V/8.33 kW, 500 V/10.42 kW, and 600 V/12.5 kW operating conditions. These thrust specifications are used to perform a set of sample acceptance tests to illustrate the importance of adding additional conservatism using a parameter known of the Test Accuracy Ratio in order to control the risk to the thruster producer and consumer from false rejection and acceptance of thruster units.
This work adapts manufacturing and metrology industry standards to create a risk-based approach for the determination of electric propulsion performance specifications. The developed process is applied to 208 total thrust measurements acquired using three different NASA Hall Effect Rocket with Magnet Shielding (HERMeS) Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) 12.5-kW Hall thrusters in three different test facilities in order to generate thrust specifications at the 300 V/6.25 kW, 400 V/8.33 kW, 500 V/10.42 kW, and 600 V/12.5 kW operating conditions. These thrust specifications are used to perform a set of sample acceptance tests to illustrate the importance of adding additional conservatism using a parameter known of the Test Accuracy Ratio in order to control the risk to the thruster producer and consumer from false rejection and acceptance of thruster units.
High/variable mixture ratio O2/H2 candidate engine cycles are examined for earth-to-orbit vehicle application. Engine performance and power balance information are presented for the candidate cycles relative to chamber pressure, bulk density, and mixture ratio. Included in the cycle screening are concepts where a third fluid (liquid nitrogen) is used to achieve a variable mixture ratio over the trajectory from liftoff to earth orbit. The third fluid cycles offer a very low risk, fully reusable, low operation cost alternative to high/variable mixture ratio bipropellant cycles. Variable mixture ratio engines with extendible nozzle are slightly lower performing than a single mixture ratio engine (MR = 7:1) with extendible nozzle. Dual expander engines (MR = 7:1) have slightly better performance than the single mixture ratio engine. Dual fuel dual expander engines offer a 16 percent improvement over the single mixture ratio engine.
In 2001, the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) project office was contacted by the Space Shuttle Ascent Guidance, Navigation, and Control group to provide the engine perspective for an Abort-to-Orbit (ATO) study. The purpose of the AT0 Off-the-Pad study was to determine the feasibility of eliminating the Return to Launch Site and Transatlantic abort modes by using a five-segment solid rocket booster and throttling the remaining SSMEs to a higher power level. This would enable all abort modes to be Abort-to-Orbit. The SSME project office at Marshall Space Flight Center collaborated with MSFC's Space Transportation Directorate and Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power to provide the AT0 Off-the-Pad study with the analysis required. Power levels at 109%, 1 11% and 1 13% of rated power level were studied as well as mixture ratio decreases down to 5.85. SSME was to evaluate and define the technical and programmatic impacts to certify the SSME to these abort power levels. The SSME systems analysis group performed a steady state analysis using the SSME power balance model to determine if there were any technical issues associated with higher power level, low mixture ratio operation. Based on each power level/mixture ratio combination, an engine certification plan was created and a preliminary probabilistic risk assessment was performed. The results showed favorable results for higher power 1evel/lower mixture ratio SSME operation. In nearly all performance and redline parameters, the traded engine operation was encompassed by nominal engine performance of a prior engine configuration.
Bone loss in microgravity is well documented, but it is difficult to quantify how declines in bone mineral density (BMD) contribute to an astronaut's overall risk of fracture upon return. This study uses a biomechanical approach to assessing hip fracture risk, or Factor of Risk (Phi), which is defined as the ratio of applied load to bone strength. All long-duration NASA astronauts from Expeditions 1-18 were included in this study (n=25), while crewmembers who flew twice (n=2) were treated as separate subjects. Bone strength was estimated based on an empirical relationship between areal BMD at the hip, as measured by DXA, and failure load, as determined by mechanical testing of cadaver femora. Fall load during a sideways fall was calculated from a previously developed biomechanical model, which takes into account body weight, height, gender, and soft tissue thickness overlying the lateral aspect of the hip that serves to attenuate the impact force. While no statistical analyses have been performed yet, preliminary results show that males in this population have a higher FOR than females, with a post- flight Phi of 0.87 and 0.36, respectively. FOR increases 5.1% from preflight to postflight, while only one subject crossed the fracture "threshold" of Phi = 1, for a total of 2 subjects with a postflight Phi > 1. These results suggest that men may be at greater risk for hip fracture due largely in part to their relatively thin soft tissue padding as compared to women, since soft tissue thickness has the highest correlation (R(exp 2)= .53) with FOR of all subject-specific parameters. Future work will investigate changes in FOR during recovery to see if baseline risk levels are restored upon return to 1-g activity. While dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is the most commonly used clinical measure of bone health, it fails to provide compartment-specific information that is useful in assessing changes to bone quality as a result of microgravity exposure. Peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) accomplishes this by imaging transverse "slices" of the long bones. This project was a re-analysis of a 90 day bed rest study to determine if changes to cortical and trabecular compartments could be detected in the distal tibia with statistical significance using a new pQCT image analysis method. Nearly all changes in bone mineral density (BMD) and cross sectional area (CSA) measures were seen with statistical significance, with the exception of a change in cortical BMD. Total bone CSA increased by 1.1 % (p =0.01), cortical CSA decreased by - 5.6% (p<0.001) and trabecular CSA increased by 1.76% (p=0.007); the combination of which suggests bone resorption occurred at the endocortical surface in response to mechanical unloading by bed rest. Furthermore, total BMD and trabecular BMD decreased (-3.8%, p=0.001 and -2.8%, p =0.007, respectively), while decreases in cortical BMD failed to reach significance (-1.2%, p=0.07). Given that compartment-specific changes are seen with significance and are likely to influence bone strength, it is recommended that pQCT remain a standard measure used in bed rest because it provides a unique measure by which to better evaluate the efficacy of countermeasures to microgravity-induced bone loss.
The relative importance of solar and trapped proton fluxes in the consideration of shielding requirements for geocentric space missions is analyzed. Using models of these particles, their fluences encountered by spacecraft in circular orbits are computed as functions of orbital altitude and inclination, mission duration, threshold energy (10 to 100 MeV), and risk factor (for solar protons only), and ratios of solar-to-trapped fluences are derived. It is shown that solar protons predominate for low-altitude polar and very high-altitude missions, while trapped protons predominate for missions at low and medium altitudes and low inclinations. It is recommended that if the ratio of solar-to-trapped protons falls between 0.1 and 10, both fluences should be considered in planning shielding systems.
This slide presentation reviews the use of Modal Acoustic Emission to monitor damage progression to carbon fiber/epoxy tows. There is a risk for catastrophic failure of composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) due to burst-before-leak (BBL) stress rupture (SR) failure of carbon-epoxy (C/Ep) COPVs. A lack of quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is causing problems in current and future spacecraft designs. It is therefore important to develop and demonstrate critical NDE that can be implemented during stages of the design process since the observed rupture can occur with little of no advanced warning. Therefore a program was required to develop quantitative acoustic emission (AE) procedures specific to C/Ep overwraps, but which also have utility for monitoring damage accumulation in composite structure in general, and to lay the groundwork for establishing critical thresholds for accumulated damage in composite structures, such as COPVs, so that precautionary or preemptive engineering steps can be implemented to minimize of obviate the risk of catastrophic failure. A computed Felicity Ratio (FR) coupled with fast Fourier Transform (FFT) frequency analysis shows promise as an analytical pass/fail criterion. The FR analysis and waveform and FFT analysis are reviewed
Many nutritional factors influence bone, from the basics of calcium and vitamin D, to factors which influence bone through acid/base balance, including protein, sodium, and more. Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a recently identified factor, secreted from osteocytes, which is involved in classic (albeit complex) feedback loops controlling phosphorus homeostasis through both vitamin D and parathyroid hormone (PTH) (1, 2). As osteocytes are gravity sensing cells, it is important to determine if there are changes in FGF23 during spaceflight. In extreme cases, such as chronic kidney disease, FGF23 levels are highly elevated. FGF23 imbalances, secondary to dietary influences, may contribute to skeletal demineralization and kidney stone risk during spaceflight. Presented with an imbalanced dietary phosphorus to calcium ratio, increased secretion of FGF23 will inhibit renal phosphorus reabsorption, resulting in increased excretion and reduced circulating phosphorus. Increased intake and excretion of phosphorus is associated with increased kidney stone risk in both the terrestrial and microgravity environments. Highly processed foods and carbonated beverages are associated with higher phosphorus content. Ideally, the dietary calcium to phosphorus ratio should be at minimum 1:1. Nutritional requirements for spaceflight suggest that this ratio not be less than 0.67 (3), while the International Space Station (ISS) menu provides 1020 mg Ca and 1856 mg P, for a ratio of 0.55 (3). Subjects in NASA's bed rest studies, by design, have consumed intake ratios much closer to 1.0 (4). FGF23 also has an inhibitory influence on PTH secretion and 1(alpha)-hydroxylase, both of which are required for activating vitamin D with the conversion of 25-hydroxyvitamin D to 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D. Decreased 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D will result in decreased intestinal phosphorus absorption, and increased urinary phosphorus excretion (via decreased renal reabsorption). Should a decrease in 1,25- dihydroxyvitamin D be necessary to reduce intestinal phosphorus absorption, calcium absorption will also proportionally be reduced, potentially leading to skeletal demineralization. Demineralization of bone can increase kidney stone risk, a medical issue that could prove detrimental to mission success. Given the interrelationships described above, we sought to determine circulating FGF23 concentrations in spaceflight and ground analog studies to better understand the potential effects of dietary phosphorus on bone and calcium metabolism. We analyzed serum from ISS astronauts participating in studies of bone biochemistry, including the Nutrition SMO and Pro K experiments, and we also evaluated FGF23 during extended-duration bed rest. Serum intact FGF23 levels were determined using an ELISA kit from Kainos laboratories in Japan. While initial evaluation of the data showed no changes over time during flight or bed rest, evaluation continues of FGF23 data in light of dietary factors, PTH, vitamin D status, and other biochemical and endocrine factors.
Fabricating primary aircraft and spacecraft structures using advanced composite materials entail both benefits and risks. The benefits come from much improved strength-to-weight ratios and stiffness-to-weight ratios, potential for less part count, ability to tailor properties, chemical and solvent resistance, and superior thermal properties. On the other hand, the risks involved include high material costs, lack of processing experience, expensive labor, poor reproducibility, high toxicity for some composites, and a variety of space induced risks. The purpose of this project is to generate a manufacturing database for a selected number of materials with potential for space applications, and to rely on this database to develop quantitative approaches to screen candidate materials and processes for space applications on the basis of their manufacturing risks including costs. So far, the following materials have been included in the database: epoxies, polycyanates, bismalemides, PMR-15, polyphenylene sulfides, polyetherimides, polyetheretherketone, and aluminum lithium. The first four materials are thermoset composites; the next three are thermoplastic composites, and the last one is is a metal. The emphasis of this database is on factors affecting manufacturing such as cost of raw material, handling aspects which include working life and shelf life of resins, process temperature, chemical/solvent resistance, moisture resistance, damage tolerance, toxicity, outgassing, thermal cycling, and void content, nature or type of process, associate tooling, and in-process quality assurance. Based on industry experience and published literature, a relative ranking was established for each of the factors affecting manufacturing as listed above. Potential applications of this database include the determination of a delta cost factor for specific structures with a given process plan and a general methodology to screen materials and processes for incorporation into the current conceptual design optimization of future spacecrafts as being coordinated by the Vehicle Analysis Branch where this research is being conducted.
The occurrence of ice accretion within commercial high bypass aircraft turbine engines has been reported under certain atmospheric conditions. Engine anomalies have taken place at high altitudes that have been attributed to ice crystal ingestion, partially melting, and ice accretion on the compression system components. The result was degraded engine performance, and one or more of the following: loss of thrust control (roll back), compressor surge or stall, and flameout of the combustor. As ice crystals are ingested into the fan and low pressure compression system, the increase in air temperature causes a portion of the ice crystals to melt. It is hypothesized that this allows the ice-water mixture to cover the metal surfaces of the compressor stationary components which leads to ice accretion through evaporative cooling. Ice accretion causes a blockage which subsequently results in the deterioration in performance of the compressor and engine. The focus of this research is to apply an engine icing computational tool to simulate the flow through a turbofan engine and assess the risk of ice accretion. The tool is comprised of an engine system thermodynamic cycle code, a compressor flow analysis code, and an ice particle melt code that has the capability of determining the rate of sublimation, melting, and evaporation through the compressor flow path, without modeling the actual ice accretion. A commercial turbofan engine which has previously experienced icing events during operation in a high altitude ice crystal environment has been tested in the Propulsion Systems Laboratory (PSL) altitude test facility at NASA Glenn Research Center. The PSL has the capability to produce a continuous ice cloud which are ingested by the engine during operation over a range of altitude conditions. The PSL test results confirmed that there was ice accretion in the engine due to ice crystal ingestion, at the same simulated altitude operating conditions as experienced previously in flight. The computational tool was utilized to help guide a portion of the PSL testing, and was used to predict ice accretion could also occur at significantly lower altitudes. The predictions were qualitatively verified by subsequent testing of the engine in the PSL. The PSL test has helped to calibrate the engine icing computational tool to assess the risk of ice accretion. The results from the computer simulation identified prevalent trends in wet bulb temperature, ice particle melt ratio, and engine inlet temperature as a function of altitude for predicting engine icing risk due to ice crystal ingestion.
In a case-control study, researchers examined the risk of decompression sickness (DCS) in individual subjects with higher number of exposures. Of the 126 subjects, 42 showed one or more episodes of DCS. Examination of the exposure-DCS relationship by odds ratio showed a linear relationship. Stratification analysis showed that sex, tissue ratio, and the presence of Doppler microbubbles were cofounders of this risk. A higher number of exposures increased the risk of DCS in this analysis.
The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) was requested to examine processing sensitivities (e.g., cure temperature control/variance, debonds, density variations) of polybenzimidazole nitrile butadiene rubber (PBI-NBR) insulation, case fiber, and resin systems and to evaluate nondestructive evaluation (NDE) and damage tolerance methods/models required to support human-rated composite motor cases. The proposed use of composite motor cases in Blocks IA and II was expected to increase performance capability through optimizing operating pressure and increasing propellant mass fraction. This assessment was to support the evaluation of risk reduction for large booster component development/fabrication, NDE of low mass-to-strength ratio material structures, and solid booster propellant formulation as requested in the Space Launch System NASA Research Announcement for Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction. Composite case materials and high-energy propellants represent an enabling capability in the Agency's ability to provide affordable, high-performing advanced booster concepts. The NESC team was requested to provide an assessment of co- and multiple-cure processing of composite case and PBI-NBR insulation materials and evaluation of high-energy propellant formulations.
The Aeroelasticity Task is intended to provide demonstrated technology readiness to predict and improve flutter characteristics of an HSCT configuration. This requires aerodynamic codes that are applicable to the wide range of flight regimes in which the HSCT will operate, and are suitable to provide the higher fidelity required for evaluation of aeroservoelastic coupling effects. Prediction of these characteristics will result in reduced airplane weight and risk associated with a highly flexible, low-aspect ratio supersonic airplane with narrow fuselage, relatively thin wings, and heavy engines. This Task is subdivided into three subtasks. The first subtask includes the design, fabrication, and testing of wind-tunnel models suitable to provide an experimental database relevant to HSCT configurations. The second subtask includes validation of candidate unsteady aerodynamic codes, applicable in the Mach and frequency ranges of interest for the HSCT, through analysis test correlation with the test data. The third subtask includes efforts to develop and enhance these codes for application to HSCT configurations. The wind tunnel models designed and constructed during this program furnished data which were useful for the analysis test correlation work but there were shortcomings. There was initial uncertainty in the proper tunnel configuration for testing, there was a need for higher quality measured model geometry, and there was a need for better measured model displacements in the test data. One of the models exhibited changes in its dynamic characteristics during testing. Model design efforts were hampered by a need for more and earlier analysis support and better knowledge of material properties. Success of the analysis test correlation work was somewhat muted by the uncertainties in the wind tunnel model data. The planned extent of the test data was not achieved, partly due to the delays in the model design and fabrication which could not be extended due to termination of the HSR program.