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DOE OSTI2022

Toward Accurate Modeling of Galaxy Clustering on Small Scales: Constraining the Galaxy-halo Connection with Optimal Statistics

Applying halo models to analyze the small-scale clustering of galaxies is a proven method for characterizing the connection between galaxies and their host halos. Such works are often plagued by systematic errors or limited to clustering statistics that can be predicted analytically. In this work, we employ a numerical mock-based modeling procedure to examine the clustering of Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR7 galaxies. We apply a standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) model to dark matter only simulations with a ΛCDM cosmology. To constrain the theoreStical models, we utilize a combination of galaxy number density and selected scales of the projected correlation function, redshift-space correlation function, group multiplicity function, average group velocity dispersion, mark correlation function, and counts-in-cells statistics. We design an algorithm to choose an optimal combination of measurements that yields tight and accurate constraints on our model parameters. Compared to previous work using fewer clustering statistics, we find a significant improvement in the constraints on all parameters of our halo model for two different luminosity-threshold galaxy samples. Most interestingly, we obtain unprecedented high-precision constraints on the scatter in the relationship between galaxy luminosity and halo mass. However, our best-fit model results in significant tension (>4σ) for both samples, indicating the need to add second-order features to the standard HOD model. To guarantee the robustness of these results, we perform an extensive analysis of the systematic and statistical errors in our modeling procedure, including a first of its kind study of the sensitivity of our constraints to changes in the halo mass function due to baryonic physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Taylor-Expansion-Based Robust Power Flow in Unbalanced Distribution Systems: A Hybrid Data-Aided Method

Traditional power flow methods often adopt certain assumptions designed for passive balanced distribution systems, thus lacking practicality for unbalanced operation. moreover, their computation accuracy and efficiency are heavily subject to unknown errors and bad data in measurements or prediction data of distributed energy resources (ders). to address these issues, this paper proposes a hybrid data-aided robust power flow algorithm in unbalanced distribution systems, which combines taylor series expansion knowledge with a data-driven regression technique. the proposed method initiates a linearization power flow model to derive an explicitly analytical solution by modified taylor expansion. to mitigate the approximation loss that surges due to the der integration and bad data, we further develop a data-aided robust support vector regression approach to estimate the errors efficiently. comparative analysis in the 13-bus and 123-bus ieee unbalanced feeders shows that the proposed hybrid algorithm achieves superior computational efficiency, with guaranteed accuracy and robustness against outliers.

data-driven↗

DOE OSTI2026

Designing a Robust MEA-Based Post-Combustion Carbon Capture Process with Capture Rate Guarantees

This work presents an application of the nonlinear two-stage robust optimization solver PyROS to the model-based design and operation of a monoethanolamine scrubbing process for CO2 capture under epistemic uncertainty. Through this application, risk-averse process designs are successfully obtained for CO2 capture targets ranging from 90% to over 99%. In particular, the risk-averse solutions for CO2 capture targets of up to 98% are shown to be only marginally more expensive than their nominally optimal counterparts. Thus, the results demonstrate the utility of recently developed nonlinear robust optimization approaches for the solution of large-scale chemical process models under uncertainty.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of ionising radiation exposure in offspring and next generations: dosimetric aspects and uncertainties

The impact of the exposure to ionizing radiation in the offspring and next generation has been investigated in the last decades and currently is the subject of study of the ICRP Task Group 121. Studying the effects of radiation exposure in pre-conceptional and post-conceptional phases can be a challenge since potential effects to the fetus vary depending on the stage of fetal development. Epidemiology and radiobiology studies are the two sources of information one can use to correlate the radiation dose to the human body and tissues and the resulting effects. For a proper evaluation of the outcomes of such studies, and a correct appraisal of the exposure/dose-effect relationship, (i) reliable dosimetry, (ii) accurate reporting, and (iii) reproducibility of results are required. Although variables related to dose, including for instance source of radiation, geometry of irradiation, dose rate etc., are usually known, especially in radiobiology studies, often important details of the irradiation are not reported. In conclusion, based on standards developed by the National Cancer Institute (NCI), the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), a review of the scientific studies used by the UNSCEAR to estimate the risk of hereditary effects, and by the ICRP in its current recommendations, was conducted to evaluate the way dosimetry was reported. Dosimetry and the related uncertainties were not adequately described in the vast majority of those studies. This does not necessarily mean that they do not provide relevant information, however it prevents from a thorough verification and reproduction of their findings. In order to guarantee the reliability and robustness of the process of revision of the estimates of risk and detriment it is therefore considered mandatory to include a careful check of the new relevant literature with regard to the criteria on the completeness and reproducibility of the dosimetric information.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

DOE OSTI2023

Barriers and Alternatives to Encryption in Critical Nuclear Systems

Over the past decade, cybersecurity researchers have released multiple studies highlighting the insecure nature of I&C system communication protocols. In response, standards bodies have addressed the issue by adding the ability to encrypt communications to some protocols in some cases, while control system engineers have argued that encryption within these kinds of high consequence systems is in fact dangerous. Certainly, control system information between systems should be protected. But encrypting the information may not be the best way to do so. In fact, while in IT systems vendors are concerned with confidentiality, integrity, and availability, frequently in that order, in OT systems engineers are much more concerned with availability and integrity that confidentiality. In this paper, we will counter specific arguments against encrypting control system traffic, and present potential alternatives to encryption that support nuclear OT system needs more strongly that commodity IT system needs while still providing robust integrity and availability guarantees.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Robust Approach to Sequential Information Theoretic Planning

In many sequential planning applications a natural approach to generating high quality plans is to maximize an information reward such as mutual information (MI). Unfortunately, MI lacks a closed form in all but trivial models, and so must be estimated. In applications where the cost of plan execution is expensive, one desires planning estimates which admit theoretical guarantees. Through the use of robust M-estimators we obtain bounds on absolute deviation of estimated MI. Moreover, we propose a sequential algorithm which integrates inference and planning by maximally reusing particles in each stage. We validate the utility of using robust estimators in the sequential approach on a Gaussian Markov Random Field wherein information measures have a closed form. Lastly, we demonstrate the benefits of our integrated approach in the context of sequential experiment design for inferring causal regulatory networks from gene expression levels. Here, our method shows improvements over a recent method which selects intervention experiments based on the same MI objective.

Zheng, Sue↗

DOE OSTI2026

arco (Assembled Resource-Constrained Optimization) [SWR-26-030]

Arco (Assembled Resource-Constrained Optimization) is a memory-smart optimization DSL and solver for LP and MIP problems on constrained hardware. The software is an optimization framework built around a KDL-based domain-specific language and a CLI compiler/solver. You write optimization models in .kdl files, and the arco CLI compiles, validates, inspects, and solves them. Language bindings (Python today, more planned) provide programmatic access to the same engine. Built for harder optimization problems on constrained resources, Arco is intentional about every allocation, careful with stack and heap behavior, and relentless about minimizing memory usage so more systems can run real workloads. Arco is built primarily for internal use within our organization. You are welcome to try it, but we make no guarantees about API stability or robustness at this stage

Sanchez Perez, Pedro Andres [National Laboratory o↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of high-rate manufacturing of π-joint using additive manufacturing

Bonded composite π-joints are critical to support wing geometries in aerospace/aircraft structures. Its lightweight and robust load-bearing capabilities/design guarantee high structural integrity and reliability. Current manufacturing techniques of π-joints are complex and laborious, and do not always offer high-quality joining. This study presents a high-rate manufacturing approach to fabricate π-joints using an integrated Additive Manufacturing and Compression Molding (AMCM) process. The joints were manufactured using unidirectional aerospace-grade LMPAEK/CF at 60% fiber loading for the stiffeners/skin and LM-PAEK/GF as the adhesive and characterized to evaluate their microstructure and strength. While the results indicate void formation at the joint caused by inadequate pressure, the peak tensile load of 600N recorded is akin to injection-autoclave molded π-joints, which validates the potential of this high-rate integrated approach to eliminate time-consuming and labour-intensive processes of making π-joints to reduce cost and produce high-quality joints.

Marathe, Umesh [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Emerging Threats in Transportation Security Related to Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)

Transport of high-consequence shipments requires a resilient and robust systems of systems to guarantee cargo arrival. Furthermore, rising adoption of technologies such as connected and automated vehicles (CAVs), intelligent infrastructure, and vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communication presents unique challenges for securing transportation systems. Within these Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), several additional vulnerabilities exist that create pathways for adversarial attacks and cargo interception. For example, connectivity provides cyber pathways directly into vehicle systems and infrastructure for malicious actors. Furthermore, advanced vehicle automation exposes additional vehicle control necessary for shipment interception otherwise unavailable to adversaries. Within this paper, we will discuss the specific threats introduced by ITS-enabled technologies currently deployed and in development. These include those mentioned related to connectivity and automation, but will be expanded into grid, infrastructure, and vehicle specific threats. In addition, we will discuss how to potentially mitigate these emerging challenges as well as how to safeguard transportation systems from next generation attacks.

Cook, Adian [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160825395)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nonlinear Multiple Models Adaptive Secondary Voltage Control of Microgrids

This article proposes a model-free secondary voltage control (SVC) for microgrids (MG) using nonlinear multiple models adaptive control. Firstly, a linear robust adaptive controller is designed to guarantee the voltage stability in the bounded-input- bounded-output (BIBO) manner so as to meet the operation requirements of MGs. Secondly, a nonlinear adaptive controller is developed to improve the voltage tracking performance with the help of artificial neural networks (ANNs). A switching mechanism for coordinating such two controllers is designed to guarantee the closed-loop stability while achieving accurate voltage tracking. Here, by an online identification based on the input and output data of MGs, the proposed method does not resort to any apriori information of system model and primary control, thus exhibiting good robustness, ease of deployment and disturbance rejection.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the Verification of Deep Reinforcement Learning Solution for Intelligent Operation of Distribution Grids

Capabilities of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) in obtaining fast decision policies in high dimensional and stochastic environments have led to its extensive use in operational research, including the operation of distribution grids with high penetration of distributed energy resources (DER). However, the feasibility and robustness of DRL solutions are not guaranteed for the system operator, and hence, those solutions may be of limited practical value. This paper proposes an analytical method to find feasibility ellipsoids that represent the range of multi-dimensional system states in which the DRL solution is guaranteed to be feasible. Empirical studies and stochastic sampling determine the ratio of the discovered to the actual feasible space as a function of the sample size. In addition, the performance of logarithmic, linear, and exponential penalization of infeasibility during the DRL training are studied and compared in order to reduce the number of infeasible solutions

Hosseini, Mohammad Mehdi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust Parameter Design on Dual Stochastic Response Models With Constrained Bayesian Optimization

In engineering system design, minimizing the variations of the quality measurements while guaranteeing their overall quality up to certain levels, namely the robust parameter design (RPD), is crucial. Recent works have dealt with the design of a system whose response-control variables relationship is a deterministic function with a complex shape and function evaluation is expensive. In this work, we propose a Bayesian optimization method for the RPD of stochastic functions. Dual stochastic response models are carefully designed for stochastic functions. The heterogeneous variance of the sample mean is addressed by the predictive mean of the log variance surrogate model in a two-step approach. We establish an acquisition function that favors exploration across the feasible and optimality-improvable regions to effectively and efficiently solve the stochastic constrained optimization problem. Further, the performance of our proposed method is demonstrated by the extensive numerical and case studies. Note to Practitioners-Many manufacturing processes involve undesirable variations, which create variations in the final products. For example, many emerging manufacturing processes, such as nanomanufacturing, involve complex physical and chemical dynamics and transformation, creating variations in the manufacturing output. In such processes, it is crucial to design the manufacturing processes or products so that they have minimum variations in their quality. Meanwhile, it is also important to maintain the overall quality of the designed processes or products. Furthermore, acquiring data from many advanced manufacturing processes is often very costly, especially in the designing stage. In this work, we propose a data-driven method that automatically finds the best setting of manufacturing processes or products with the minimum variations of quality and a given constraint on the average quality satisfied. Our proposed method is used before conducting every experiment; It analyzes the historical data from previous experiments and provides a setting to be used in the next experiment. Our proposed method efficiently utilizes the historical data, and thus finds the best robust setting by conducting only a small number of experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Stochastic Stability of Deep Markov Models

Deep Markov models (DMM) are generative models which are scalable and expressive generalization of Markov models for representation, learning, and inference problems. DMMs using deep neural networks to parametrize the transition of Markov probability distributions have recently been shown to provide more expressiveness in modeling sequential data and dynamical system responses. However, the fundamental stochastic stability guarantees of such models have not been thoroughly investigated. In this paper, we present a rigorous analytical method to prove the necessary and sufficient conditions of DMM's stochastic stability. This task is achieved by spectral analysis of the efficiently computed Jacobians of probabilistic maps modeled by deep neural networks. We make theoretical connections between the eigenvalues of neural network's weights and the different activation function types used on the stability and overall dynamic behavior of DMMs with Gaussian distributions. We empirically substantiate our theoretical results on stochastic stability and eigenvalue spectra via several numerical experiments. Formal stability guarantees of DMMs can substantially improve their robustness and trustworthiness, necessary for reliable use in safety-critical real-world applications.

Drgona, Jan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Secondary Frequency Regulation from Variable Generation through Uncertainty Decomposition: An Economic and Reliability Perspective

The rapid integration of variable generation (VG), such as photovoltaics (PV), necessitates an increase in the secondary frequency regulation (SFR) to handle the system intra-dispatch interval imbalance because of VG's variation. Although PV has the control capability to provide SFR, the main challenge is in guaranteeing the delivery of PV's energy and SFRs capacities in the automatic generation control (AGC) within each dispatch interval considering its uncertainty. This paper proposes a deliverable VG SFR provision model with endogenous VG's power uncertainty decomposition. First, the uncertainty of VG is decomposed using distributionally robust chance constraints through which the deliverable SFR provision is guaranteed. Next, the intra-interval frequency response of PV's SFR is validated with a user defined AGC model including the PV power plant. Finally, the economic benefits and the reliability improvements such as the frequency deviation reduction with PV providing SFRcan be integrated and evaluated. The proposed model is tested in a modified 18-bus system and in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council test system. Results demonstrate that with the deliverable SFR from PV, the system cost and the frequency reliability can be improved simultaneously. PV's SFR performance can be guaranteed with the proposed model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Model Predictive Control for Urban Traffic Signals with Stability Guarantees

Traditional traffic signal control focuses more on the optimization aspects whereas the stability and robustness of the closed-loop system are less studied. This paper aims to establish the stability properties of traffic signal control systems through the analysis of a practical model predictive control (MPC) scheme, which models the traffic network with the conservation of vehicles based on a store-and forward model and attempts to balance the traffic densities. More precisely, this scheme guarantees the exponential stability of the closed-loop system under state and input constraints when the inflow is feasible and traffic demand can be fully accessed. Practical exponential stability is achieved in case of small uncertain traffic demand by a modification of the previous scheme. Simulation results of a small-scale traffic network validate the theoretical analysis.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

DOE OSTI2024

Infrared-safe energy weighting does not guarantee small nonperturbative effects

Infrared and collinear (IRC) safety has long been used a proxy for robustness when developing new jet substructure observables. This guiding philosophy has been carried into the deep learning era, where IRC-safe neural networks have been used for many jet studies. For graph-based neural networks, the most straightforward way to achieve IRC safety is to weight particle inputs by their energies. However, energy-weighting by itself does not guarantee that perturbative calculations of machine-learned observables will enjoy small nonperturbative corrections. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate the sensitivity of IRC-safe networks to nonperturbative effects, by training an energy flow network (EFN) to maximize its sensitivity to hadronization. We then show how to construct Lipschitz energy flow networks (L-EFNs), which are both IRC safe and relatively insensitive to nonperturbative corrections. We demonstrate the performance of L-EFNs on generated samples of quark and gluon jets, and showcase fascinating differences between the learned latent representations of EFNs and L-EFNs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamical Sketching for Enhanced Communication Efficiency in Federated Learning

Federated learning (FL) has revolutionized distributed machine learning by enabling collaborative model training without sharing local data. However, communication efficiency and privacy guarantees remain significant challenges. This paper introduces a dynamic sketching mechanism in FL, optimizing the trade-off between communication efficiency and model accuracy. By dynamically selecting the sketch matrix size, our approach adapts to the evolving characteristics of the data and the model, ensuring optimal performance across diverse scenarios. We leverage Bayesian optimization to systematically tune the sketch parameters, achieving an effective balance between resource efficiency and model performance. Experimental results on the MNIST dataset using a convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture validate the proposed method's efficiency and scalability. Our dynamic sketching approach significantly outperforms fixed-size sketching techniques, achieving higher compression ratios (up to 62x) and providing better privacy guarantees while maintaining high model accuracy. These findings highlight the robustness and versatility of our approach and make it a valuable solution for privacy-preserving, communication-efficient federated learning.

Afrose, Sharmin [ORNL]↗

DOE OSTI2025

GeoLoRA: Geometric integration for parameter efficient fine-tuning

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) has become a widely used method for parameter-efficient fine-tuning of large-scale, pre-trained neural networks. However, LoRA and its extensions face several challenges, including the need for rank adaptivity, robustness, and computational efficiency during the fine-tuning process. We introduce GeoLoRA, a novel approach that addresses these limitations by leveraging dynamical low-rank approximation theory. GeoLoRA requires only a single backpropagation pass over the small-rank adapters, significantly reducing computational cost as compared to similar dynamical low-rank training methods and making it faster than popular baselines such as AdaLoRA. This allows GeoLoRA to efficiently adapt the allocated parameter budget across the model, achieving smaller low-rank adapters compared to heuristic methods like AdaLoRA and LoRA, while maintaining critical convergence, descent, and error-bound theoretical guarantees. The resulting method is not only more efficient but also more robust to varying hyperparameter settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GeoLoRA on several state-of-the-art benchmarks, showing that it outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and computational efficiency.

Schotthoefer, Steffen [ORNL] (ORCID:00000002156965↗