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Investigation of Structural Factors of Safety for the Space Shuttle

A study was made of the factors governing the structural design of the fully reusable space shuttle booster to establish a rational approach to select optimum structural factors of safety. The study included trade studies of structural factors of safety versus booster service life, weight, cost, and reliability. Similar trade studies can be made on other vehicles using the procedures developed. The major structural components of a selected baseline booster were studied in depth, each being examined to determine the fatigue life, safe-life, and fail-safe capabilities of the baseline design. Each component was further examined to determine its reliability and safety requirements, and the change of structural weight with factors of safety. The apparent factors of safety resulting from fatigue, safe-life, proof test, and fail-safe requirements were identified. The feasibility of reduced factors of safety for design loads such as engine thrust, which are well defined, was examined.

Source record

The Ultimate Factor of Safety for Aircraft and Spacecraft Its History, Applications and Misconceptions

The ultimate factor of safety (FOSULT) concept used in aircraft and spacecraft has evolved over many decades. Currently an FOSULT 1.5 is the FAR‐mandated value for aircraft while an FOSULT of 1.4 has been used in various spacecraft. This paper was motivated by the desire to concisely explain the origins, proper interpretation and application of the ultimate factor of safety concept, since the authors have seen throughout their careers many misconceptions and incorrect applications of this concept. The history of the ultimate factor of safety concept is briefly summarized, the proper application of the factor of safety in aircraft design, structural analysis and operations is covered in detail, examples of limit load exceedance in aircraft and spacecraft are discussed, the evolution of the 1.4 FOSULT for spacecraft is described and some misconceptions regarding the ultimate factor of safety concept are addressed. It is hoped that this paper can be a summary resource for engineers to understand the origin, purpose and proper application of the ultimate factor of safety.

Zipay, John J.

Quasi-Static Probabilistic Structural Analyses Process and Criteria

Current deterministic structural methods are easily applied to substructures and components, and analysts have built great design insights and confidence in them over the years. However, deterministic methods cannot support systems risk analyses, and it was recently reported that deterministic treatment of statistical data is inconsistent with error propagation laws that can result in unevenly conservative structural predictions. Assuming non-nal distributions and using statistical data formats throughout prevailing stress deterministic processes lead to a safety factor in statistical format, which integrated into the safety index, provides a safety factor and first order reliability relationship. The embedded safety factor in the safety index expression allows a historically based risk to be determined and verified over a variety of quasi-static metallic substructures consistent with the traditional safety factor methods and NASA Std. 5001 criteria.

Goldberg, B.

Calculating Factors of Safety and Margins of Safety from Interaction Equations

This report presents the derivation of the relationship between the factor of safety, the margin of safety, and a given interaction equation in two- or three-dimensional space. Factors of safety and margins of safety can be calculated from these interaction equations using either the closed-form solutions provided or the numerical methods mentioned in this report. The dual definition of the factor of safety is presented.

Factor of Safety

Assessing Factors of Safety, Margins of Safety, and Reliability of Thermal Protection Systems

This paper provides formally derived definitions for Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) factors of safety and margins of safety borrowing from machine design approaches. The new factors of safety and margins of safety definitions are quite simple and easy to use, and should provide improved comparison of design safety and margins of past, present and future vehicles, These definitions are then applied to several entry vehicles, including Apollo, the Space Shuttle, the Mars Viking and Pathfinder vehicles, and the Pioneer Venus entry vehicle for example and clarity, and to aid in developing a database of previous TPS design experience. In addition to the factors and margins of safety, definitions of computed reliabilities incorporation the reliability index used in machine design are also developed and presented. Adoption and use of the reliability index will hopefully considerably aid the optimization of TPS design for future vehicles.

Rasky, Daniel J.

Design of a unidirectional composite momentum wheel rim

A preliminary study comparing twelve unidirectional-fiber composite systems to five metal materials conventionally used in momentum wheels is presented. Six different fibers are considered in the study: E-Glass, S-Glass, Boron, AS, T300, and Kevlar. Because of the possibility of high momentum requirements, and thus high stresses, only two matrix materials are considered: a high-modulus (HM) and a intermediate-modulus-high-strength (IMHS) matrix. Each of the six fibers are coupled with each of the two matrix materials. In an effort to optimize the composite system, each composite is considered while varying the fiber volume ratio from 0.0 to 0.7 in increments of 0.1. For fiber volume ratios above 0.2, all twelve unidirectional-fiber composite systems meet the study's requirements with higher factors of safety and less mass than the five conventional isotropic (metal) materials. For example, at a fiber volume ratio of 0.6, the Kevlar/IMHS composite system has a safety factor 4.5 times greater than that of a steel (maraging) system and an approximately 10 percent reduction in weight.

Shogrin, Bradley

Design of Critical Components

Critical component design is based on minimizing product failures that results in loss of life. Potential catastrophic failures are reduced to secondary failures where components removed for cause or operating time in the system. Issues of liability and cost of component removal become of paramount importance. Deterministic design with factors of safety and probabilistic design address but lack the essential characteristics for the design of critical components. In deterministic design and fabrication there are heuristic rules and safety factors developed over time for large sets of structural/material components. These factors did not come without cost. Many designs failed and many rules (codes) have standing committees to oversee their proper usage and enforcement. In probabilistic design, not only are failures a given, the failures are calculated; an element of risk is assumed based on empirical failure data for large classes of component operations. Failure of a class of components can be predicted, yet one can not predict when a specific component will fail. The analogy is to the life insurance industry where very careful statistics are book-kept on classes of individuals. For a specific class, life span can be predicted within statistical limits, yet life-span of a specific element of that class can not be predicted.

Hendricks, Robert C.

Conservative buffering of approximate nonlinear constraints

In engineering design practice behavior is usually predicted based on some known nominal design. However, when the design is fabricated it will differ from the nominal design because of manufacturing tolerances. In order to generate nominal designs that will still satisfy behavior constraints in the presence of manufacturing tolerances, engineers resort to the use of safety factors, over and above those introduced to account for other uncertainties (e.g., in load conditions, material properties, analysis modeling). The accurate selection of the values of these manufacturing tolerances safety factors is dependent on the capability of the engineer to determine the sensitivity of the critical constraints to changes in the design variables. This process usually leads to overly conservative designs. The task of choosing safety factors is much more difficult in structural synthesis because: (1) it is not known which constraints will be active at the final design, (2) as the design changes during the synthesis process the sensitivities of the constraints with respect to the design variables also change, and (3) the imposition of the safety factors themselves may change the set of critical constraints. These difficulties can be overcome with the approximation concepts approach to structural synthesis by buffering the approximate constraints with quantities that are related to the design variable tolerances and the accurate sensitivities of the constraints with respect to the design variable. Designs generated by this approach tend to be feasible but not overly conservative.

Thomas, H. L.

Space station crew safety: Human factors interaction model

A model of the various human factors issues and interactions that might affect crew safety is developed. The first step addressed systematically the central question: How is this space station different from all other spacecraft? A wide range of possible issue was identified and researched. Five major topics of human factors issues that interacted with crew safety resulted: Protocols, Critical Habitability, Work Related Issues, Crew Incapacitation and Personal Choice. Second, an interaction model was developed that would show some degree of cause and effect between objective environmental or operational conditions and the creation of potential safety hazards. The intermediary steps between these two extremes of causality were the effects on human performance and the results of degraded performance. The model contains three milestones: stressor, human performance (degraded) and safety hazard threshold. Between these milestones are two countermeasure intervention points. The first opportunity for intervention is the countermeasure against stress. If this countermeasure fails, performance degrades. The second opportunity for intervention is the countermeasure against error. If this second countermeasure fails, the threshold of a potential safety hazard may be crossed.

Cohen, M. M.

Space Station crew safety - Human factors model

A model of the various human factors issues and interactions that might affect crew safety is developed. The first step addressed systematically the central question: How is this Space Station different from all other spacecraft? A wide range of possible issue was identified and researched. Five major topics of human factors issues that interacted with crew safety resulted: Protocols, Critical Habitability, Work Related Issues, Crew Incapacitation and Personal Choice. Second, an interaction model was developed that would show some degree of cause and effect between objective environmental or operational conditions and the creation of potential safety hazards. The intermediary steps between these two extremes of causality were the effects on human performance and the results of degraded performance. The model contains three milestones: stressor, human performance (degraded) and safety hazard threshold. Between these milestones are two countermeasure intervention points. The first opportunity for intervention is the countermeasure against stress. If this countermeasure fails, performance degrades. The second opportunity for intervention is the countermeasure against error. If this second countermeasure fails, the threshold of a potential safety hazard may be crossed.

Cohen, M. M.

Recent advances in computational structural reliability analysis methods

The goal of structural reliability analysis is to determine the probability that the structure will adequately perform its intended function when operating under the given environmental conditions. Thus, the notion of reliability admits the possibility of failure. Given the fact that many different modes of failure are usually possible, achievement of this goal is a formidable task, especially for large, complex structural systems. The traditional (deterministic) design methodology attempts to assure reliability by the application of safety factors and conservative assumptions. However, the safety factor approach lacks a quantitative basis in that the level of reliability is never known and usually results in overly conservative designs because of compounding conservatisms. Furthermore, problem parameters that control the reliability are not identified, nor their importance evaluated. A summary of recent advances in computational structural reliability assessment is presented. A significant level of activity in the research and development community was seen recently, much of which was directed towards the prediction of failure probabilities for single mode failures. The focus is to present some early results and demonstrations of advanced reliability methods applied to structural system problems. This includes structures that can fail as a result of multiple component failures (e.g., a redundant truss), or structural components that may fail due to multiple interacting failure modes (e.g., excessive deflection, resonate vibration, or creep rupture). From these results, some observations and recommendations are made with regard to future research needs.

Thacker, Ben H.

Calculating Factors of Safety and Margins of Safety from Interaction Equations for Preloaded Bolts

This report presents the derivation of the factored interaction equations for preloaded bolts in two- or three-dimensional space. This is an extension of the previous work of the first author which covered factored interaction equations consisting of load or stress-ratios which were either solely constant or solely varying quantities. The factored interaction equations for preloaded bolts consist of an axial load-ratio that is a combination of a constant quantity, preload and thermal load at preload, and a varying quantity, tensile and bending loads, and was not covered under the previous work. Two forms of the factored interaction equations for preloaded bolts, arising from two perspectives, are presented and compared. Closed form solutions for the tensile, shear, and bending loads as functions of the other concurrent loads that produces zero margin of safety are presented.

interaction equations

Shielding from Solar Particle Event Exposures in Deep Space

The physical composition and intensities of solar particle event exposures or sensitive astronaut tissues are examined under conditions approximating an astronaut in deep space. Response functions for conversion of particle fluence into dose and dose equivalent averaged over organ tissue, are used to establish significant fluence levels and the expected dose and dose rates of the most important events from past observations. The BRYNTRN transport code is used to evaluate the local environment experienced by sensitive tissues and used to evaluate bioresponse models developed for use in tactical nuclear warfare. The present results will help to the biophysical aspects of such exposure in the assessment of RBE and dose rate effects and their impact on design of protection systems for the astronauts. The use of polymers as shielding material in place of an equal mass of aluminum would prowide a large safety factor without increasing the vehicle mass. This safety factor is sufficient to provide adequate protection if a factor of two larger event than has ever been observed in fact occurs during the mission.

Wilson, John W.

Reliability of composite vessels and proof testing.

The reliability of anisotropic structures is formulated with the aid of the yield and fracture criteria, on the basis of recent studies of composite rocket motor cases in a state of plane stress. The vessel reliability is estimated in terms of the safety factor, thus permitting a rational interpretation of the design safety factor in terms of the vessel relability. The formulation is consistent with the finite element approach, and is being coded into a computer program for practical design evaluation.

Yang, J.-N.

Design certification review assessment report. Electron/proton spectrometer

The characteristics of the electron-photon spectrometer developed for the Skylab program are presented. The spectrometer is externally mounted on the Skylab module complex and provides omnidirectional measurement of electrons and protons which result from solar flares or enhancement of the radiation belts. The data are applied to the determination of relative biological effectiveness factors as a safety factor for manned space flight.

Source record

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.

Use of photostress and strain gages to analyze behavior of weldments and use of photostress and strain gages to analyze behavior of an aft skirt test specimen

Previous work using Photostress on TIG welded, heat treated specimens of 2219-T87 parent material and 2319 weld material indicated that behavior of the joint can be highly irregular and non-uniform. Welded joints 1.40 inches thick exhibited a totally non-uniform behavior through the weld thickness with the 'wide' side of the weld being much more ductile than the 'narrow' side. It is believed that this difference in behavior through the weld is, in part, caused by procedures used when laying the weld bead. Joints similar to weldments in references 1 and 2 are an integral part of the aft skirt of the SRB of the shuttle. Since the ultimate safety factor for the lower portion of the weld is below the minimum required safety factor, a photostress analysis of this lower portion will be conducted in the vicinity of the weld. A test program using photostress will be conducted in accordance with the project planning document entitled 'Photostress Evaluation Requirements for AFT Skirt Test Article No. 4'.

Gambrell, S. C.

Aeroelastic Control of a Segmented Trailing Edge Using Fiber Optic Strain Sensing Technology

Currently, design of aircraft structures incorporate a safety factor which is essentially an over design to mitigate the risk of structure failure during operation. Typically this safety factor is to design the structure to withstand loads much greater than what is expected to be experienced during flight. NASA Dryden Flight Research Centers has developed a Fiber Optic Strain Sensing (FOSS) system which can measure strain values in real-time. The Aeroelastics Lab at the AERO Institute is developing a segmented trailing edged wing with multiple control surfaces that can utilize the data from the FOSS system, in conjunction with an adaptive controller to redistribute the lift across a wing. This redistribution can decrease the amount of strain experienced by the wing as well as be used to dampen vibration and reduce flutter.

aeronautics