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At least 37 records · Page 2

Evaluation of Global Fire Simulations in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Fire is the primary form of terrestrial ecosystem disturbance on a global scale and an important Earth system process. Most Earth system models (ESMs) have incorporated fire modeling, with 19 of them submitting model outputs of fire-related variables to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This study provides the first comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 historical fire simulations by comparing them with multiple satellite-based products and charcoal-based historical reconstructions. Our results show that most CMIP6 models simulate the present-day global burned area and fire carbon emissions within the range of satellite-based products. They also capture the major features of observed spatial patterns and seasonal cycles, the relationship of fires with precipitation and population density, and the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of tropical fires. Regional fire carbon emissions simulated by the CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2010 generally align with the charcoal-based reconstructions, although there are regional mismatches, such as in southern South America and eastern temperate North America prior to the 1910s and in temperate North America, eastern boreal North America, Europe, and boreal Asia since the 1980s. The CMIP6 simulations have addressed three critical issues identified in CMIP5: (1) the simulated global burned area being less than half of that of the observations, (2) the failure to reproduce the high burned area fraction observed in Africa, and (3) the weak fire seasonal variability. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit improved accuracy in capturing the observed relationship between fires and both climatic and socioeconomic drivers and better align with the historical long-term trends indicated by charcoal-based reconstructions in most regions worldwide. However, the CMIP6 models still fail to reproduce the decline in global burned area and fire carbon emissions observed over the past 2 decades, mainly attributed to an underestimation of anthropogenic fire suppression, and the spring peak in fires in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, mainly due to an underestimation of crop fires. In addition, the model underestimates the fire sensitivity to wet–dry conditions, indicating the need to improve fuel wet-ness estimation. Based on these findings, we present specific guidance for fire scheme development and suggest a postprocessing methodology for using CMIP6 multi-model outputs to generate reliable fire projection products.

Wildfire, Earth system models↗

Three-dimensional simulation of whistler mode excited by the Spacelab 2 electron beam

During the Spacelab 2 mission, while an electron beam was being ejected from the Shuttle, the Plasma Diagnostics Package (PDP) detected a clear funnel-shaped emission that is believed to be caused by whistler-mode emission from the electron beam. In order to understand the mechanism of this emission, simulations with a three-dimensional partially magnetostatic code have been performed. The simulation results show that whistler-mode and lower hybrid waves are excited by the electron beam, which is initially localized in the column in the three-dimensional simulation system, and that they propagate away from the beam. The wave spectra of the electric and magnetic fields diagnosed at some points show several peaks due to the waves excited by the electron beam. The frequency range of these spectra is in qualitative agreement with the PDP data. The intense narrowband electrostatic emission near the electron plasma frequency is observed by the simulations. The simulation results show that the beam instability is responsible for the generation mechanism of these emissions.

Nishikawa, K.-I.↗

Radio Simulations of Upgoing Extensive Air Showers Observed from Low-Earth Orbit

Tau neutrinos interacting in the Earth can result in upgoing extensive air showers. These showers produce optical and radio emission that can be detected by orbital and suborbital platforms. We present results of radio emission simulations using ZHAireS for observation from low-Earth orbit as part of NASA's nuSpaceSim program to develop a comprehensive end-to-end simulation package to model these signals. Peculiar properties of the radio emission arise from the fact that these showers develop in extremely rarified portions of the Earth's atmosphere and, being observed from hundreds of kilometers distance, have distinct coherent emission features compared to ground observations.

Romero-Wolf, Andrew↗

The Effects of Consistent Chemical Kinetics Calculations on the Pressure-Temperature Profiles and Emission Spectra of Hot Jupiters

In this work we investigate the impact of calculating non-equilibrium chemical abundances consistently with the temperature structure for the atmospheres of highly-irradiated, close-in gas giant exoplanets. Chemical kinetics models have been widely used in the literature to investigate the chemical compositions of hot Jupiter atmospheres which are expected to be driven away from chemical equilibrium via processes such as vertical mixing and photochemistry. All of these models have so far used pressure-temperature (P-T) profiles as fixed model input. This results in a decoupling of the chemistry from the radiative and thermal properties of the atmosphere, despite the fact that in nature they are intricately linked. We use a one-dimensional radiative-convective equilibrium model, ATMO, which includes a sophisticated chemistry scheme to calculate P-T profiles which are fully consistent with non-equilibrium chemical abundances, including vertical mixing and photochemistry. Our primary conclusion is that, in cases of strong chemical disequilibrium, consistent calculations can lead to differences in the P-T profile of up to 100 K compared to the P-T profile derived assuming chemical equilibrium. This temperature change can, in turn, have important consequences for the chemical abundances themselves as well as for the simulated emission spectra. In particular, we find that performing the chemical kinetics calculation consistently can reduce the overall impact of non-equilibrium chemistry on the observable emission spectrum of hot Jupiters. Simulated observations derived from non-consistent models could thus yield the wrong interpretation. We show that this behaviour is due to the non-consistent models violating the energy budget balance of the atmosphere.

planets and satellites↗

First results from a laboratory facility for measurement of emission spectra under simulated planetary conditions

We have developed a laboratory spectroscopic facility for the measurement of emission spectra under simulated planetary conditions. Spectral measurements are made from 6 to 13 microns with a scanning grating monochromator equipped with a HgCdTl detector. An environment chamber in service in Hawaii for several years in which we can control the temperature from 77 K to 500 K, the pressure from 10(exp -5) torr to two atmospheres, has been equipped with a 77 K or 273 K cold shield. The shield serves to minimize light reflected off the sample and to aid in development of thermal gradients for obtaining spectra under conditions simulating the thermal environment of airless bodies. Samples are placed in small cups on a temperature controlled substrate allowing measurements of emission due to heating from below by the substrate, or from illumination from a solar simulation source.

Lucey, Paul G.↗

Imaging solar flares in hard X-rays using Fourier telescopes

The sun emits hard X-rays (above 10 keV) during solar flares. Imaging hard X-ray sources on the sun with spatial resolutions on the order of 1-5 arcsec and integration times of 1 sec will provide greater insight into the energy release processes during a solar flare. In these events, tremendous amounts of energy stored in the solar magnetic field are rapidly released leading to emission across the electromagnetic spectrum. Two Fourier telescope designs, a spatial modulation collimator and a rotating modulation collimator, were developed to image the full sun in hard X-rays (10-100 keV) in an end-to-end simulation. Emission profiles were derived for two hard X-ray solar flare models taken from the current solar theoretical literature and used as brightness distributions for the telescope simulations. Both our telescope models, tailored to image solar sources, were found to perform equally well, thus offering the designer significant flexibility in developing systems for space-based platforms. Given sufficient sensitive areas, Fourier telescopes are promising concepts for imaging solar hard X-rays.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗

Improving commercial truck fleet composition in emission modeling using 2021 US VIUS data

Commercial trucks are essential elements of the nation's supply chain system. Meanwhile, intensive truck movements contribute significantly to system externalities, such as energy use and air pollution. However, collecting detailed fleet composition and distribution of operational patterns remains a barrier to accurately accounting for these impacts. The recently released 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS) fills a critical gap in understanding commercial truck fleet distributions, their operations, and business constraints at the national scale. This study aims to understand the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and calibrate the fleet inputs in regulatory emission models to assess the potential emission implications of the VIUS-derived fleet composition. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to improve fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The study also investigates potential emission reduction benefits under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. The energy consumption and critical air pollutant rates by vehicle types are compared between MOVES4 and US VIUS fleets for both current and future scenarios to provide insights into the latest U.S. commercial vehicle fleet characteristics and their implications on energy and emissions. This study helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. It also deepens the understanding of the emission reduction potential of the commercial fleet under various fleet projections.

2021 US VIUS↗

Commercial Fleet Level Emissions and Energy Tracker (COFLEET) v1.0

This tool generates the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and assess the fleetwide energy and emission outcomes. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to generate fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The tool also provides fleet turnover and emission forecasts under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. This tool helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. This study also provides some sample datasets for state and local transportation/air quality agencies to test, which can reduce the estimation bias associated with using MOVES default fleets.

Xu, Xiaodan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory↗

Estimating Total Methane Emissions from the Denver-Julesburg Basin Using Bottom-Up Approaches

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with a 25 times higher 100-year warming potential than carbon dioxide and is a target for mitigation to achieve climate goals. To control and curb methane emissions, estimates are required from the sources and sectors which are typically generated using bottom-up methods. However, recent studies have shown that national and international bottom-up approaches can significantly underestimate emissions. In this study, we present three bottom-up approaches used to estimate methane emissions from all emission sectors in the Denver-Julesburg basin, CO, USA. Our data show emissions generated from all three methods are lower than historic measurements. A Tier 1/2 approach using IPCC emission factors estimated 2022 methane emissions of 358 Gg (0.8% of produced methane lost by the energy sector), while a Tier 3 EPA-based approach estimated emissions of 269 Gg (0.2%). Using emission factors informed by contemporary and region-specific measurement studies, emissions of 212 Gg (0.2%) were calculated. The largest difference in emissions estimates were a result of using the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) for the production and transport of oil and gas in the DJ basin. The MAES accounts for changes to regulatory practice in the DJ basin, which include comprehensive requirements for compressors, pneumatics, equipment leaks, and fugitive emissions, which were implemented to reduce emissions starting in 2014. The measurement revealed that normalized gas loss is predicted to have been reduced by a factor of 20 when compared to 10-year-old normalization loss measurements and a factor of 10 less than a nearby oil and production area (Delaware basin, TX); however, we suggest that more measurements should be made to ensure that the long-tail emission distribution has been captured by the modeling. This study suggests that regulations implemented by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment could have reduced emissions by a factor of 20, but contemporary regional measurements should be made to ensure these bottom-up calculations are realistic.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

NLR's FleetDNA Speed Distributions for EPA MOVES

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) models mobile sources of air toxics at small and large scales across the Unites States. Vehicle speed distributions based on the type of vehicle, type of road traveled, and hour of the day are inputs into MOVES. In conjunction with vehicle miles traveled (VMT) inputs, they are used to estimate total operation time and select the relevant driving cycles from which running operating modes and emissions are estimated. In an ongoing research effort, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) partnered with the EPA to provide default average speed data for heavy-duty vehicles based on NLR's FleetDNA database and the Bourns College of Engineering - Center for Environmental Research and Technology (CE-CERT) data set from the University of California, Riverside.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Emission‐Driven Land‐Atmosphere Coupled Simulation in E3SMv2.1

Emissions-driven (prognostic CO 2 ) simulations are essential for representing two-way carbon-climate feedback in Earth System Models. We present an emissions-driven land–atmosphere coupled biogeochemistry (BGC) configuration (BGCLNDATM_progCO2) in version 2.1 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv2.1). This is the first E3SM configuration that performs land-atmosphere emission-hindcasts. Here, we document its implementation, evaluate the model's performance against observations and other models, and propose a structured evaluation protocol for such emissions-driven simulations. We conducted transient historical simulations (1850–2014) with BGCLNDATM_progCO2 and compare them to reference simulations—a land-atmosphere coupled simulation without BGC and a standalone land simulation with BGC, both using prescribed CO 2 concentrations—and to observations. BGCLNDATM_progCO2 overestimates atmospheric CO 2 concentrations by 11–23 ppm yet stays within the 40-ppm spread CMIP6 emission-driven models and retains physical climate properties comparable to the reference runs. The CO 2 biases are partly attributed to underrepresented oceanic CO 2 uptake and inadequate representations of some terrestrial processes. In general, introducing prognostic CO 2 did not change physical climate metrics at the global scale but had larger regional effects, particularly over land where spatially heterogeneous CO 2 and prognostic leaf area index influenced surface energy balance. Finally, we propose a general evaluation protocol including spin-up assessment, atmospheric CO 2 benchmarking, physical climate evaluation, and land biogeochemical analysis to support scientific rigor and facilitate inter-model comparisons. The new configuration lays the groundwork for future enhancements, including improved terrestrial biogeochemical processes, integrated marine biogeochemistry, and additional human–Earth system interactions. These developments advance E3SM toward fully coupled emissions-driven simulations, enabling more accurate carbon–climate feedback projections and informing mitigation policy by providing physically consistent carbon-budget metrics for mitigation scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Noise equivalent circuit of a semiconductor laser diode

A small-signal model of a semiconductor laser is extended to include the effects of intrinsic noise by adding current and voltage noise sources. The current noise source represents the shot noise of carrier recombination, while the voltage noise source represents the random process of simulated emission. The usefulness of the noise equivalent circuit is demonstrated by calculating the modulation and noise characteristics of a current-driven diode as a function of bias current and frequency.

Harder, C.↗

High Power Laser Diode Array Qualification and Guidelines for Space Flight Environments

Semiconductor laser diodes emit coherent light by simulated emission generated inside the cavity formed by the cleaved end facets of a slab of semiconductor that is typically less than a millimeter in any dimension for single emitters. The diode is pumped by current injection in the p-n junction through the metallic contacts. Laser diodes emitting in the range of 0.8 micron to 1.06 micron have a wide variety of applications from pumping erbium doped fiber amplifiers, dual-clad fiber lasers, solid-state lasers used in telecom, aerospace, military, medical purposes and all the way to CD players, laser printers and other consumer and industrial products. Laser diode bars have many single emitters side by side and spaced approximately .5 mm on a single slab of semiconductor material approximately .5 mm x 10 mm. The individual emitters are connected in parallel maintaining the voltage at -2V but increasing the current to ~50-100A/bar. Stacking these laser diode bars in multiple layers, 2 to 20+ high, yields high power laser diode arrays capable of emitting several hundreds of Watts. Electrically the bars are wired in series increasing the voltage by 2V/bar but maintaining the total current at ~50-100A. These arrays are one of the enabling technologies for efficient, high power solid-state lasers. Traditionally these arrays are operated in QCW (Quasi CW) mode with pulse widths ~10-200 (mu)s and with repetition rates of ~10-200Hz. In QCW mode the wavelength and the output power of the laser reaches steady-state but the temperature does not. The advantage is a substantially higher output power than in CW mode, where the output power would be limited by the internal heating and hence the thermal and heat sinking properties of the device. The down side is a much higher thermal induced mechanical stress caused by the constant heating and cooling cycle inherent to the QCW mode.

Eegholm, Niels↗

Constraining the Size of Near Earth Asteroids

Quick and accurate determination of the size of an asteroid is of great interest to the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project and is difficult to accomplish. With a combination of visible and thermal measurements we employ a method that leverages the size estimations of each model as physical constraints on the true diameter. This method breaks degeneracies present in the thermal and visible model from sparse data. In the visible bands we use both the established H-G relationship and its successor the H-G1G2 model, which has improved capabilities in the opposition effect and large phase angles. For the thermal models we use the Near Earth Asteroid Thermal Model (NEATM), the Night Emission Simulated Thermal Model (NESTM), and the Advanced Thermophysical Model (ATPM).

Nelson, Tyler↗

Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Nanoflare Heating in Solar AR

Nanoflares are thought to be prime candidates to heat the solar non-flaring active regions. However, their direct individual detection with current instrumentation remains challenging. Understanding the frequency and magnitude of nanoflares is crucial for understanding their role in coronal heating. In this study, we employ a field-aligned hydrodynamic model to simulate the evolution of an active region (AR) under nanoflare heating scenarios. By comparing the simulated emission with EUV and X-ray observations, we determine the frequency of heating events and investigate how it evolves with the AR evolution. Additionally, we analyze the impact of observational parameters, such as instrument spatial resolution and energy band, on estimating nanoflare properties. Our findings contribute to advancing our understanding of the role of nanoflares in coronal heating and refining observational parameters for detecting these events.

nano flare↗

Simulated Active Region Emission and Dynamics: A STEREO Perspective

We present detailed three-dimensional simulations of active regions resulting from numerical models of sunspots coupled to coronal excitation and emission. The models incorporate a fully three-dimensional magnetoconvection calculation, described in a poster by Hurlburt and Rucklidge, potential field extrapolations from the sunspot model boundary conditions, steady-state coronal loops powered by the convective motions at the surface, EUV and X-ray instrument response functions, and a full voxel rendering. The result is a simulated dynamical active region in three dimensions which enables us to explore coronal heating and its relationship to the dynamics of the photosphere and convection zone. The 3D rendering of the resulting EUV emission allows us to investigate the expected coronal signatures of the EUVI instruments on board the twin STEREO spacecraft to be launched in 2004. The hybrid model developed here also provides a simulation testbed for the development of future STEREO image reconstruction tools: an integral component in the access to STEREO data by the solar physics community.

Alexander, David↗

Differences Between the HUT Snow Emission Model and MEMLS and Their Effects on Brightness Temperature Simulation

Microwave emission models are a critical component of snow water equivalent retrieval algorithms applied to passive microwave measurements. Several such emission models exist, but their differences need to be systematically compared. This paper compares the basic theories of two models: the multiple-layer HUT (Helsinki University of Technology) model and MEMLS (Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks). By comparing the mathematical formulation side-by-side, three major differences were identified: (1) by assuming the scattered intensity is mostly (96) in the forward direction, the HUT model simplifies the radiative transfer (RT) equation into 1-flux; whereas MEMLS uses a 2-flux theory; (2) the HUT scattering coefficient is much larger than MEMLS; (3 ) MEMLS considers the trapped radiation inside snow due to internal reflection by a 6-flux model, which is not included in HUT. Simulation experiments indicate that, the large scattering coefficient of the HUT model compensates for its large forward scattering ratio to some extent, but the effects of 1-flux simplification and the trapped radiation still result in different T(sub B) simulations between the HUT model and MEMLS. The models were compared with observations of natural snow cover at Sodankyl, Finland; Churchill, Canada; and Colorado, USA. No optimization of the snow grain size was performed. It shows that HUT model tends to under estimate T(sub B) for deep snow. MEMLS with the physically-based improved Born approximation performed best among the models, with a bias of -1.4 K, and an RMSE of 11.0 K.

Pan, Jinmei↗