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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

On the discovery of stars, quasars, and galaxies in the Southern Hemisphere with S-PLUS DR2

ABSTRACT This paper provides a catalogue of stars, quasars, and galaxies for the Southern Photometric Local Universe Survey Data Release 2 (S-PLUS DR2) in the Stripe 82 region. We show that a 12-band filter system (5 Sloan-like and 7 narrow bands) allows better performance for object classification than the usual analysis based solely on broad bands (regardless of infrared information). Moreover, we show that our classification is robust against missing values. Using spectroscopically confirmed sources retrieved from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey DR16 and DR14Q, we train a random forest classifier with the 12 S-PLUS magnitudes + 4 morphological features. A second random forest classifier is trained with the addition of the W1 (3.4 $\mu\mathrm{m} $) and W2 (4.6 $\mu\mathrm{m} $) magnitudes from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Forty-four per cent of our catalogue have WISE counterparts and are provided with classification from both models. We achieve 95.76 per cent (52.47 per cent) of quasar purity, 95.88 per cent (92.24 per cent) of quasar completeness, 99.44 per cent (98.17 per cent) of star purity, 98.22 per cent (78.56 per cent) of star completeness, 98.04 per cent (81.39 per cent) of galaxy purity, and 98.8 per cent (85.37 per cent) of galaxy completeness for the first (second) classifier, for which the metrics were calculated on objects with (without) WISE counterpart. A total of 2926 787 objects that are not in our spectroscopic sample were labelled, obtaining 335 956 quasars, 1347 340 stars, and 1243 391 galaxies. From those, 7.4 per cent, 76.0 per cent, and 58.4 per cent were classified with probabilities above 80 per cent. The catalogue with classification and probabilities for Stripe 82 S-PLUS DR2 is available for download.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evidence for Neutrino Emission from X-Ray Bright Seyfert Galaxies in the Southern Hemisphere Using Enhanced Starting Track Events with IceCube

IceCube recently reported the observation of TeV neutrinos from the nearby Seyfert galaxy NGC 1068, and the corresponding neutrino flux is significantly higher than the upper limit implied by observations of GeV–TeV gamma rays. This suggests that neutrinos are produced near the supermassive black hole, where the radiation density is high enough to obscure gamma rays. We use a set of muon neutrinos with interaction vertices inside the detector, which have good sensitivity to sources in the southern sky, from IceCube data recorded between 2011 and 2021. We then search for individual and collective neutrino signals from 14 Seyfert galaxies in the southern sky selected from the Swift Burst Alert Telescope AGN Spectroscopic Survey. Using the correlations between keV X-rays and TeV neutrinos predicted by disk–corona models, and assuming production characteristics similar to NGC 1068, a collective neutrino signal search reveals an excess of $6.{7}_{-3.2}^{+4.0}$ events, which is inconsistent with background expectations at the 3σ level of significance. In this Letter, we present new independent evidence that Seyfert galaxies contribute to the extragalactic flux of high-energy neutrinos.

Seyfert galaxies↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating EAMv2 Simulated High Latitude Clouds Using ARM Measurements in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres

Here, this study evaluates high latitude stratiform mixed-phase clouds (SMPC) in the atmosphere model of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (EAMv2) by utilizing one-year-long ground-based remote sensing measurements from the Atmospheric Radiation and Measurement (ARM) program. A nudging approach is applied to model simulations for a constrained comparison with the ARM observations. Observed and modeled SMPCs are sampled and collocated to address the difference in data resolution, so that we can consistently evaluate their macrophysical properties at the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site in the Arctic and the McMurdo (AWR) site in the Antarctic. We found that EAMv2 overestimates SMPC frequency of occurrence at both sites. However, the model captures the observed larger cloud frequency of occurrence at the NSA site. For collocated SMPCs, the annual statistics of observed cloud macrophysics are generally reproduced at the NSA site, while at the AWR site, there are larger biases. Compared to the AWR site, the lower cloud top and cloud base and the warmer cloud top temperature observed at NSA are well simulated. On the other hand, simulated cloud phase is substantially biased. The model largely overestimates liquid water path, and the ice water path is underestimated at NSA, but at AWR, the liquid water path is frequently underestimated due to the dominance of snow in Antarctic SMPCs. As a result, the observed hemispheric difference in cloud phase partitioning is misrepresented in EAMv2. This study implies that additional model development is needed for high latitude mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cross-correlating Planck with VST ATLAS LRGs: a new test for the ISW effect in the Southern hemisphere

ABSTRACT The integrated Sachs–Wolfe (ISW) effect probes the late-time expansion history of the Universe, offering direct constraints on dark energy. Here, we present our measurements of the ISW signal at redshifts of $\bar{z}=0.35$, 0.55, and 0.68, using the cross-correlation of the Planck cosmic microwave background temperature map with ∼0.5 million luminous red galaxies (LRGs) selected from the VST ATLAS survey. We then combine these with previous measurements based on WMAP and similar SDSS LRG samples, providing a total sample of ∼2.1 million LRGs covering ∼12 000 deg2 of sky. At $\bar{z}=0.35$ and $\bar{z}=0.55$, we detect the ISW signal at 1.2σ and 2.3σ (or 2.6σ combined), in agreement with the predictions of lambda cold dark matter (ΛCDM). We verify these results by repeating the measurements using the BOSS LOWZ and CMASS, spectroscopically confirmed LRG samples. We also detect the ISW effect in three magnitude limited ATLAS + SDSS galaxy samples extending to z ≈ 0.4 at ∼2σ per sample. However, we do not detect the ISW signal at $\bar{z}=0.68$ when combining the ATLAS and SDSS results. Further tests using spectroscopically confirmed eBOSS LRGs at this redshift remain inconclusive due to the current low sky coverage of the survey. If the ISW signal is shown to be redshift dependent in a manner inconsistent with the predictions of ΛCDM, it could open the door to alternative theories such as modified gravity. It is therefore important to repeat the high-redshift ISW measurement using the completed eBOSS sample, as well as deeper upcoming surveys such as DESI and LSST.

Ansarinejad, Behzad↗
DOE OSTI2026

Southern Hemisphere Polar Infrared Radiation Experiment (SHIRE) Field Campaign Report

An extended-range atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) instrument to be deployed to Scott Base (78 S, 166 E) in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica for the purpose of synergizing with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Polar Radiant Energy in the Far-InfraRed Experiment (PREFIRE) satellite mission (https://prefire.ssec.wisc.edu/), examining the closure of atmospheric thermal emission, and providing validation for PREFIRE. The PREFIRE mission is the first satellite mission to map Earth’s spectrally resolved thermal emission, from 5 to 50 microns, over seasonal to annual timescales. These new observations represent the beginning of an intensive examination of the nature of thermal emission from Earth (emission from both the surface and atmosphere). A primary requirement of the PREFIRE mission is to provide validation of the retrieved variables. Numerous field sites in the Arctic (such as the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska observatory and Summit Station, Greenland) have existing instrumentation to facilitate validation, leaving an observational gap in Antarctica. Through SHIRE, we propose to establish a temporary, intensive measurement site in Antarctica to ensure that both poles are suitably represented, and benefit from this state-of-the art science. This will also allow Arctic and Antarctic atmospheric radiative states to be compared and contrasted. For SHIRE specifically, we also propose further objectives to examine the spectrally resolved thermal radiative closure of the polar atmosphere and the historical changes in Antarctic radiative forcing, using previous Antarctic field campaigns, such as the ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the oceanic origin for the enhanced seasonal cycle of SST in the midlatitudes under global warming

Climate models project an enhancement in SST seasonal cycle over the midlatitude oceans under global warming. However, the maintaining mechanism for this enhancement is still under debate. This study investigates the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under quadrupling CO2 using a set of partially coupled experiments, in which the contribution from direct CO2 forcing (without the effect of wind changes) and wind effects can be isolated. Results indicate that both the direct CO2 and total wind effects contribute to the enhancement in the SST seasonal cycle, with the former (latter) effect being more important in the Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere). Further decomposition of the wind effect into the wind stress feedback and wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback through the change of wind speed reveals the importance of the wind stress-driven ocean response in the change of SST seasonal cycle, a result in contrast to a previous study that ascribed the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle change to the thermodynamic WES feedback. The direct CO2 effect regulates SST seasonal cycle mainly through the mediating effects of the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD): i) the CO2 induced warming leads to MLD shoaling, thus reducing its effective heat capacity; ii) the climatological MLD is greater in winter than summer, given the same amount of energy flux from the surface, SST warming in winter should be smaller. Notably, the surface wind seasonal cycle change due solely to the direct CO2 effect is found to bear a great resemblance to the full wind response, implicating that the direct CO2 effect is the root source for the enhancement of the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle. This is further supported by an ocean-alone experiment that replicates the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under a spatially and temporally homogeneous surface thermal forcing into the ocean.

Liu, Fukai↗
DOE OSTI2022

Return of the templates: Revisiting the Galactic Center excess with multimessenger observations

The Galactic center excess (GCE) remains one of the most intriguing discoveries from the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) observations. We revisit the characteristics of the GCE by first producing a new set of high-resolution galactic diffuse gamma-ray emission templates. This diffuse emission, which accounts for the bulk of the observed gamma rays, is ultimately due to cosmic-ray interactions with the interstellar medium. Using recent high-precision cosmic-ray observations, in addition to the continuing Fermi-LAT observations and observations from lower energy photons, we constrain the properties of the galactic diffuse emission. We describe a large set of diffuse gamma-ray emission templates which account for a very wide range of initial assumptions on the physical conditions in the inner galaxy. The broad properties of the GCE that we find in this work are qualitatively unchanged despite the introduction of this new set of templates, though its quantitative features appear mildly different than those obtained in previous analyses. In particular, we find a high-energy tail at higher significance than previously reported. This tail is very prominent in the northern hemisphere, and less so in the southern hemisphere. This strongly affects one prominent interpretation of the excess: known millisecond pulsars are incapable of producing this high-energy emission, even in the relatively softer southern hemisphere, and are therefore disfavored as the sole explanation of the GCE. The annihilation of dark matter particles of mass 40 - 7 + 10 GeV (95% CL) to b quarks with a cross-section of ⟨ σ A v ⟩ = 1. 4 - 0.3 + 0.6 × 10 - 26 cm 3 s − 1 provides a good fit to the excess especially in the relatively cleaner southern sky. Dark matter of the same mass range annihilating to b quarks or heavier dark matter particles annihilating to heavier Standard Model bosons can combine with millisecond pulsars to provide a good fit to the southern hemisphere emission as well, as can a broken power-law spectrum which would be related to recent cosmic-ray burst activity. As part of this paper, we make publicly available all of our templates and the data covariance matrix we have generated to account for systematic uncertainties.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A coupled ground heat flux–surface energy balance model of evaporation using thermal remote sensing observations

Abstract. One of the major undetermined problems in evaporation (ET) retrieval using thermal infrared remote sensing is the lack of a physically based ground heat flux (G) model and its integration within the surface energy balance (SEB) equation. Here, we present a novel approach based on coupling a thermal inertia (TI)-based mechanistic G model with an analytical surface energy balance model, Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC, version STIC1.2). The coupled model is named STIC-TI. The model is driven by noon–night (13:30 and 01:30 local time) land surface temperature, surface albedo, and a vegetation index from MODIS Aqua in conjunction with a clear-sky net radiation sub-model and ancillary meteorological information. SEB flux estimates from STIC-TI were evaluated with respect to the in situ fluxes from eddy covariance measurements in diverse ecosystems of contrasting aridity in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Sensitivity analysis revealed substantial sensitivity of STIC-TI-derived fluxes due to the land surface temperature uncertainty. An evaluation of noontime G (Gi) estimates showed 12 %–21 % error across six flux tower sites, and a comparison between STIC-TI versus empirical G models also revealed the substantially better performance of the former. While the instantaneous noontime net radiation (RNi) and latent heat flux (LEi) were overestimated (15 % and 25 %), sensible heat flux (Hi) was underestimated (22 %). Overestimation (underestimation) of LEi (Hi) was associated with the overestimation of net available energy (RNi−Gi) and use of unclosed surface energy balance flux measurements in LEi (Hi) validation. The mean percent deviations in Gi and Hi estimates were found to be strongly correlated with satellite day–night view angle difference in parabolic and linear pattern, and a relatively weak correlation was found between day–night view angle difference versus LEi deviation. Findings from this parameter-sparse coupled G–ET model can make a valuable contribution to mapping and monitoring the spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem water stress and evaporation using noon–night thermal infrared observations from future Earth observation satellite missions such as TRISHNA, LSTM, and SBG.

Bhattacharya, Bimal K.↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Mountain Glacier Perspective on the Bipolar Seesaw

A global record of mountain glacier terminations during the last deglaciation (∼19–11 ka) dated by a large, uncurated data set of cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages highlights a statistically significant asynchrony in termination ages between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This interhemispheric offset in the timing of glacier terminations is consistent with previously correlated ice core records that show a systematic interhemispheric lag in the timing of abrupt climate events, with the Southern Hemisphere leading the Northern Hemisphere by ∼300–3,500 years. Our analysis (a) aggregates cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages from a global data set of moraines to discern climatically driven peaks in moraine emplacement events, and (b) utilizes a Monte Carlo simulation based on a null hypothesis that moraine emplacement is interhemispherically synchronous to estimate the statistical significance of the observed offset. The observed lag of Northern Hemisphere emplacement events compared to the Southern Hemisphere is statistically significant and is consistent with the “bipolar seesaw” pattern observed in ice core records.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Near-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment

Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can be a new source of S2S predictability. The project “Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (LS4P)” was initiated to study the impact of springtime LST/SUBT anomalies over high mountain areas on summertime precipitation predictions. The present work explores the simulated global scale response of the atmospheric circulation to the springtime TP land surface cooling by 16 current state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment. The LS4P-I results show, for the first time, that springtime TP surface anomalies can modulate a persistent quasi-barotropic Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train from the TP via the northeast Asia and Bering Strait to the western part of the North America, along with the springtime westerly jet from TP across the whole North Pacific basin. The TRC wave train modulated by the TP thermal anomaly play a critical role on the early summer surface air temperature and precipitation anomalies in the regions along the wave train, especially over the northwest North America and the southern Great Plains. The participant models that fail in capturing the TRC wave train greatly under-predict climate anomalies in reference to observations and the successful models. These results suggest that the TP LST/SUBT anomaly via the TRC wave train is the first order source of the S2S variability in the regions mentioned. Furthermore, the TP surface temperature anomaly can influence the Southern Hemispheric circulation by generating cross-equator wave trains. However, the simulated propagation pathways from the TP into the Southern Hemisphere show large inter-model differences. More dynamical understanding of the TRC wave train as well as its cross-equator propagation into the Southern Hemisphere will be explored in the newly launched LS4P phase II experiment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forced and Unforced Decadal Behavior of the Interhemispheric SST Contrast during the Instrumental Period (1881–2012): Contextualizing the Late 1960s–Early 1970s Shift

The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changing the rotational direction of a wind turbine under veering inflow: a parameter study

All current-day wind-turbine blades rotate in clockwise direction as seen from an upstream perspective. The choice of the rotational direction impacts the wake if the wind profile changes direction with height. Here, we investigate the respective wakes for veering and backing winds in both hemispheres by means of large-eddy simulations. We quantify the sensitivity of the wake to the strength of the wind veer, the wind speed, and the rotational frequency of the rotor in the Northern Hemisphere. A veering wind in combination with counterclockwise-rotating blades results in a larger streamwise velocity output, a larger spanwise wake width, and a larger wake deflection angle at the same downwind distance in comparison to a clockwise-rotating turbine in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the same wake characteristics occur if the turbine rotates counterclockwise. These downwind differences in the wake result from the amplification or weakening or reversion of the spanwise wind component due to the effect of the superimposed vortex of the rotor rotation on the inflow's shear. An increase in the directional shear or the rotational frequency of the rotor under veering wind conditions increases the difference in the spanwise wake width and the wake deflection angle between clockwise- and counterclockwise-rotating actuators, whereas the wind speed lacks a significant impact.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Degradation Reduces Microbial Richness and Alters Microbial Functions in an Australian Peatland

Abstract Peatland ecosystems cover only 3% of the world’s land area; however, they store one-third of the global soil carbon (C). Microbial communities are the main drivers of C decomposition in peatlands, yet we have limited knowledge of their structure and function. While the microbial communities in the Northern Hemisphere peatlands are well documented, we have limited understanding of microbial community composition and function in the Southern Hemisphere peatlands, especially in Australia. We investigated the vertical stratification of prokaryote and fungal communities from Wellington Plains peatland in the Australian Alps. Within the peatland complex, bog peat was sampled from the intact peatland and dried peat from the degraded peatland along a vertical soil depth gradient (i.e., acrotelm, mesotelm, and catotelm). We analyzed the prokaryote and fungal community structure, predicted functional profiles of prokaryotes using PICRUSt, and assigned soil fungal guilds using FUNGuild. We found that the structure and function of prokaryotes were vertically stratified in the intact bog. Soil carbon, manganese, nitrogen, lead, and sodium content best explained the prokaryote composition. Prokaryote richness was significantly higher in the intact bog acrotelm compared to degraded bog acrotelm. Fungal composition remained similar across the soil depth gradient; however, there was a considerable increase in saprotroph abundance and decrease in endophyte abundance along the vertical soil depth gradient. The abundance of saprotrophs and plant pathogens was two-fold higher in the degraded bog acrotelm. Soil manganese and nitrogen content, electrical conductivity, and water table level (cm) best explained the fungal composition. Our results demonstrate that both fungal and prokaryote communities are shaped by soil abiotic factors and that peatland degradation reduces microbial richness and alters microbial functions. Thus, current and future changes to the environmental conditions in these peatlands may lead to altered microbial community structures and associated functions which may have implications for broader ecosystem function changes in peatlands.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Wildfire Aerosols on Global Energy Budget and Climate: The Role of Climate Feedbacks

Aerosols emitted from wildfires could significantly affect global climate through perturbing global radiation balance. In this study, the Community Earth System Model with prescribed daily fire aerosol emissions is used to investigate fire aerosols’ impacts on global climate with emphasis on the role of climate feedbacks. The total global fire aerosol radiative effect (RE) is estimated to be -0.78 ± 0.29 W m -2 , which is mostly from shortwave RE due to aerosol–cloud interactions (REaci; -0.70 ± 0.20 W m -2 ). The associated global annual-mean surface air temperature (SAT) change ΔT is -0.64 ± 0.16 K with the largest reduction in the Arctic regions where the shortwave REaci is strong. Associated with the cooling, the Arctic sea ice is increased, which acts to reamplify the Arctic cooling through a positive ice-albedo feedback. The fast response (irrelevant to ΔT) tends to decrease surface latent heat flux into atmosphere in the tropics to balance strong atmospheric fire black carbon absorption, which reduces the precipitation in the tropical land regions (southern Africa and South America). The climate feedback processes (associated with ΔT) lead to a significant surface latent heat flux reduction over global ocean areas, which could explain most (~80%) of the global precipitation reduction. The precipitation significantly decreases in deep tropical regions (5°N) but increases in the Southern Hemisphere tropical ocean, which is associated with the southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone and the weakening of Southern Hemisphere Hadley cell. Such changes could partly compensate the interhemispheric temperature asymmetry induced by boreal forest fire aerosol indirect effects, through intensifying the cross-equator atmospheric heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. Here this study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (~15°S - 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupled Climate Responses to Recent Australian Wildfire and COVID-19 Emissions Anomalies Estimated in CESM2

In this work, multiple 50-member ensemble simulations with the Community Earth System Model version 2 are performed to estimate the coupled climate responses to the 2019–2020 Australian wildfires and COVID-19 pandemic policies. The climate response to the pandemic is found to be weak generally, with global-mean net top-of-atmosphere radiative anomalies of +0.23 ± 0.14 W m –2 driving a gradual global warming of 0.05 ± 0.04 K by the end of 2022. While regional anomalies are detectable in aerosol burdens and clear-sky radiation, few significant anomalies exist in other fields due to internal variability. In contrast, the simulated response to Australian wildfires is a strong and rapid cooling, peaking globally at –0.95 ± 0.15 W m –2 in late 2019 with a global cooling of 0.06 ± 0.04 K by mid-2020. Transport of fire aerosols throughout the Southern Hemisphere increases albedo and drives a strong interhemispheric radiative contrast, with simulated responses that are consistent generally with those to a Southern Hemisphere volcanic eruption.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗