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At least 37 records · Page 2

Demonstration of Effects on Tropical Cyclone Forecasts with a High Resolution Global Model from Variation in Cumulus Convection Parameterization

The Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) is a system of models that have been developed at Goddard Space Flight Center to support NASA's earth science research in data analysis, observing system modeling and design, climate and weather prediction, and basic research. The work presented used GEOS-5 with 0.25o horizontal resolution and 72 vertical levels (up to 0.01 hP) resolving both the troposphere and stratosphere, with closer packing of the levels close to the surface. The model includes explicit (grid-scale) moist physics, as well as convective parameterization schemes. Results will be presented that will demonstrate strong dependence in the results of modeling of a strong hurricane on the type of convective parameterization scheme used. The previous standard (default) option in the model was the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme, which uses a quasi-equilibrium closure. In the cases shown, this scheme does not permit the efficient development of a strong storm in comparison with observations. When this scheme is replaced by a modified version of the Kain-Fritsch scheme, which was originally developed for use on grids with intervals of order 25 km such as the present one, the storm is able to develop to a much greater extent, closer to that of reality. Details of the two cases will be shown in order to elucidate the differences in the two modeled storms.

Miller, Timothy L.↗

The vertical profile of radar reflectivity of convective cells: A strong indicator of storm intensity and lightning probability?

Reflectivity data from Doppler radars are used to construct vertical profiles of radar reflectivity (VPRR) of convective cells in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in three different environmental regimes. The National Center for Atmospheric Research CP-3 and CP-4 radars are used to calculate median VPRR for MCSs in the Oklahoma-Kansas Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central in 1985. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere radar in Darwin, Australia, is used to calculate VPRR for MCSs observed both in oceanic, monsoon regimes and in continental, break period regimes during the wet seasons of 1987/88 and 1988/89. The midlatitude and tropical continental VPRRs both exhibit maximum reflectivity somewhat above the surface and have a gradual decrease in reflectivity with height above the freezing level. In sharp contrast, the tropical oceanic profile has a maximum reflectivity at the lowest level and a very rapid decrease in reflectivity with height beginning just above the freezing level. The tropical oceanic profile in the Darwin area is almost the same shape as that for two other tropical oceanic regimes, leading to the conclustion that it is characteristic. The absolute values of reflectivity in the 0 to 20 C range are compared with values in the literature thought to represent a threshold for rapid storm electrification leading to lightning, about 40 dBZ at -10 C. The large negative vertical gradient of reflectivity in this temperature range for oceanic storms is hypothesized to be a direct result of the characteristically weaker vertical velocities observed in MCSs over tropical oceans. It is proposed, as a necessary condition for rapid electrification, that a convective cell must have its updraft speed exceed some threshold value. Based upon field program data, a tentative estimate for the magnitude of this threshold is 6-7 m/s for mean speed and 10-12 m/s for peak speed.

Zipser, Edward J.↗

Perspectives on Forced Predictability

This talk addresses the relationships between weather and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other low frequency atmospheric variations such as the Pacific/North American pattern. We focus, in particular, on the predictability of extreme wintertime precipitation events over the continental United States. We first examine fifty years of daily precipitation observations and quantify the leading patterns of winter weather variability. These weather systems, familiar to operational weather forecasters, account for many of the major flooding events on the west coast as well as the major winter snowstorms along the east coast. We next examine the statistics of these storm systems with a particular focus on the occurrence of extreme events. The leading weather systems show varying degrees of linkages to low frequency atmospheric variability. We show, for example, that on seasonal time scales the probability of occurrence of certain types of west coast storms is strongly enhanced by El Nino, while it is reduced during winters with an anomalous trough to the west of the dateline. ENSO also has a strong impact on storms that develop over the Gulf of Mexico and affect much of the eastern United States, with enhanced storminess during El Nino, and reduced storminess during La Nina conditions. We conclude with an example of how well current climate models are able to reproduce the basic linkages between weather and low frequency variability.

Schubert, S.↗

The Diurnal Variation of Dust and Water Ice Aerosol Optical Depth at Jezero Crater Observed By MEDA/TIRS Over A Full Martian Year

The Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS) on the Perseverance rover has provided nearly two full Mars years of systematic monitoring of the total aerosol optical depth above Jezero Crater. These observations span a wide range of timescales, capturing seasonal patterns, diurnal variations, and minute-to-minute fluctuations in aerosol loading. By combining TIRS retrievals with orbital observations, the relative contributions of dust and water ice aerosols can be estimated, revealing their different seasonal and diurnal behaviors. The TIRS record shows distinct periods of dust storm activity, including strong regional storms during the perihelion season as well as short lived but intense dust events outside the typical dust storm season. Water ice clouds exhibit pronounced seasonal and diurnal variability, with peak activity occurring during the aphelion season but with a presence throughout the year. The diurnal variation of clouds differs significantly between the aphelion and perihelion seasons, with clouds persisting throughout the night during the aphelion season, while largely absent outside of specific periods after sunrise and sunset during the perihelion season. These results provide new insights into the complex behavior of aerosols at Jezero Crater and their connections to atmospheric dynamics and the Martian dust and water cycles.

Michael D Smith↗

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tiny Particles, Big Storms

Tiny particles have a lot of clout when it comes to powering large storms in the Amazon, scientists from PNNL and collaborators from around the globe show in a paper in the journal Science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lung health in era of climate change and dust storms

Highlights: • Dust storms provide a vital role on Earth. • The health impact of dust storms is principally determined by the particle size. • The immune system plays a vital role in dust exposure. • Association between dust and sarcoidosis has been proposed. • Prevention and reduction of particle exposure is of paramount importance. Dust storms are strong winds which lead to particle exposure over extensive areas. These storms influence air quality on both a local and global scale which lead to both short and long-term effects. The frequency of dust storms has been on the rise during the last decade. Forecasts suggest that their incidence will increase as a response to the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities. Elderly people, young children, and individuals with chronic cardiopulmonary diseases are at the greatest risk for health effects of dust storms. A wide variety of infectious and non-infectious diseases have been associated with dust exposure. Influenza A virus, pulmonary coccidioidomycosis, bacterial pneumonia, and meningococcal meningitis are a few examples of dust-related infectious diseases. Among non-infectious diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma, sarcoidosis and pulmonary fibrosis have been associated with dust contact. Here, we review two molecular mechanisms of dust induced lung disease for asthma and sarcoidosis. We can also then further understand the mechanisms by which dust particles disturb airway epithelial and immune cells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A diagnosis of two cyclones in the South Pacific Convergence Zone

The evolution of three cyclones which originated in the South Pacific Convergence Zone, two of which propagated into middle latitudes, are traced. The analysis is based on IR imagery from GOES-W, island meteorological station data, and estimates of heat and moisture budget residuals. A European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting Level III-b analysis was used to model the cyclones. The northward-propagating storms exhibited strong vertical shear of the horizontal wind, implicating baroclinic effects in the development of the storms. The processes which enhanced storm intensification are discussed. Attention is given to the spatial and temporal behavior of dynamic atmospheric components which were significant to baroclinicity and latent heat release, which the analysis demonstrates were coupled processes.

Vincent, D. G.↗

New dust opacity mapping from Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper data

Global dust opacity mapping for Mars has been carried forward using the approach described by Martin (1986) for Viking IR Thermal Mapper data. New maps are presented for the period from the beginning of Viking observations, until Ls 210 deg in 1979 (1.36 Mars years). This range includes the second and more extensive planet-encircling dust storm observed by Viking, known as storm 1977b. Improvements in approach result in greater time resolution and smaller noise than in the earlier work. A strong local storm event filled the Hellas basin at Ls 170 deg, prior to the 1977a storm. Dust is retained in equatorial regions following the 1977b storm far longer than in mid-latitudes. Minor dust events appear to raise the opacity in northern high latitudes during northern spring. Additional mapping with high time resolution has been done for the periods of time near the major storm origins in order to search for clues to the mechanism of storm initiation. The first evidence of the start of the 1977b storm is pushed back to Ls 274.2 deg, preceding signs of the storm in images by about 15 hours.

Martin, Terry Z.↗

Ionospheric effects of the extreme solar activity of February 1986

During February 1986, near the minimum of the 11 year Solar sunspot cycle, after a long period of totally quiet solar activity (R sub z = 0 on most days in January) a period of a suddenly enhanced solar activity occurred in the minimum between solar cycles 21 and 22. Two proton flares were observed during this period. A few other flares, various phenomena accompanying proton flares, an extremely severe geomagnetic storm and strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere were observed in this period of enhanced solar activity. Two active regions appeared on the solar disc. The flares in both active regions were associated with enhancement of solar high energy proton flux which started on 4 February of 0900 UT. Associated with the flares, the magnetic storm with sudden commencement had its onset on 6 February 1312 UT and attained its maximum on 8 February (Kp = 9). The sudden enhancement in solar activity in February 1986 was accompanied by strong disturbances in the Earth's ionosphere, SIDs and ionospheric storm. These events and their effects on the ionosphere are discussed.

Boska, J.↗

Storms Are an Important Driver of Change in Tropical Forests

Tropical forest dynamics and composition have changed over recent decades, but the proximate drivers of these changes remain unclear. Investigations into these trends have focused on increasing drought stress, CO 2 , temperature, and fires, whereas convective storms are generally overlooked. We argue that existing literature provides clear support for the importance of storms as drivers of forest change. We reanalyze the largest plot-based study of tropical forest carbon dynamics to show that lightning frequency—an indicator of storm activity—strongly predicts forest carbon storage and residence time, and its inclusion improves model fit and weakens evidence for the effects of high temperatures. Convective storm activity has increased 5%–25% per decade over the past half century. Extrapolating from historic trends, we estimate that storms likely contribute ca. 50% of the reported increases in biomass mortality across Amazonia, with all realistic combinations of assumptions indicating a possible range of 12%–118%. Spatial variation in storm activity shows weak relationships with drought, demonstrating that forests can experience high drought stress, high storm activity, or both. Accordingly, we hypothesise that convective storms are among the most important drivers of tropical forest change, and as such, they require significant research investment to avoid misguiding science, policy, and management.

biomass carbon↗

How Ionospheric Ions Populate the Magnetosphere during a Magnetic Storm

Ionospheric oxygen ions have been observed throughout the magnetosphere, from the plasma sheet to the ring current region. I t has been found that the O+ /H+ density ratio in the magnetosphere increases with geomagnetic activity and varies with storm phases. During the magnetic storm in late September to earIy October 2002, Cluster was orbiting in the plasma sheet and ring current regions. At prestorm time, Cluster observed high H+ density and low O+ density in the plasma sheet and lobes. During the storm main phase, 0+ density has increased by 10 times over the pre-storm level. Strong field-aligned beams of O+ were observed in the lobes. O+ fluxes were significantly reduced in the central plasma sheet during the storm recovery. However, 0+ was still evident on the boundaries of the plasma sheet and in the lobes. In order to interpret the Cluster observations and to understand how O+ ions populate the magnetosphere during a magnetic storm, we model the storm in early October 2002 using our global ion kinetic simulation (GIK). We use the LFN global simulation model to produce electric and magnetic fields in the outer magnetosphere, the Strangeway outflow scaling with Delcourt ion trajectories to include ionospheric outflows, and the Fok inner magnetospheric model for the plasmaspheric and ring current response to all particle populations. We find that the observed composition features are qualitatively reproduced by the simulations, with some quantitative differences that point to future improvements in the models.

Fok, Mei-Ching↗

Effects of the pressure perturbation field in numerical models of unidirectionally sheared thunderstorm convection - Two versus three dimensions

The physical roles of 'buoyant' and 'dynamic' pressure components, and the distinction between buoyant and hydrostatic pressure perturbations, are aspects of the pressure perturbation field in strongly sheared convective storms studied by means of two- and three-dimensional anelastic numerical modeling experiments with common environmental profiles. The pressure analysis clarifies the differences between two- and three-dimensional storms. In the main updraft, strong midlevel thermal buoyancy is partly opposed by a downward-perturbed vertical pressure gradient force. This, however, occurs to a much greater extent in two dimensions than in three, contributing to smaller net upward accelerations. While the buoyant and hydrostatic fields are intimately related to the total buoyancy distribution, the buoyant pressure perturbation is smoother and of lower amplitude than its hydrostatic counterpart. For the model experiments, this distinction is far greater in three dimensions than in two, in association with the smaller scale of the active convection in three dimensions.

Schlesinger, R. E.↗

Spaceborne Passive-Microwave Hail Detection: Global Climatologies, Validation, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and vulnerable to nonmeteorological biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in a globally uniform way. We have developed a hail detection algorithm that leverages the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. We use this retrieval to construct global passive-microwave climatologies of severe hail using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and are working to extend into the pre-TRMM era to the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/(S)) data. Using coincident Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, we assessed this retrieval and several others in the literature for their effectiveness and regional variability. We find that this retrieval, which leverages a signature in the Minimum 19-GHz polarization corrected temperature (PCT) combined with the 37-GHz PCT depression normalized by tropopause height constrains the radar reflectivity most tightly, and gives the least appearance of regional biases compared to other passive-microwave approaches in the literature. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. We will discuss ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D. Bang↗

Detecting Hail from Space: Algorithms, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in a globally uniform way. We have developed a hail detection algorithm that leverages the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. We use this retrieval to construct global climatologies of severe hail using several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and are working to extend into the late 1980’s using the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMI/(S)) data. Using coincident Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, we assessed this retrieval and several others in the literature for their effectiveness and regional variability. We developed a passive-microwave algorithm that corresponds tightly to radar reflectivity and gives the least appearance of regional biases compared to other passive-microwave approaches in the literature. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. We will discuss ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗

Remote Sensing of Hail from Space: Retrievals, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in the most globally consistent way. Passive-microwave algorithms leverage the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. These retrievals are used to construct global climatologies of severe hail. The Bang and Cecil (2019) retrievals has been applied to several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and used to construct [near] global climatologies of severe hail. This retrieval, and others, have been tested using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, to assess their effectiveness and regional variability. A successful retrieval and climatology are those that correspond tightly to radar reflectivity and give minimal appearance of regional biases, especially with latitude. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. There are ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗

Spaceborne Remote Sensing of Hail: Retrievals, Climatologies, and Challenges Going Forward

In addition to the myriad threats that severe hailstorms pose to society, infrastructure and agriculture, severe hail is difficult to measure in situ, and surface-based hail reporting and detection methods are inconsistent and subject to geographical or societal biases. This motivates the use of spaceborne remote-sensing platforms to retrieve hail and construct climatologies in the most globally consistent way. Passive-microwave algorithms leverage the sensitivity of spaceborne passive-microwave radiometers to scattering by hail, particularly in the channels from 10 to 89 GHz. These retrievals are used to construct global climatologies of severe hail. The Bang and Cecil (2019) retrievals has been applied to several different spaceborne sensors: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (GPM) Microwave Imager, Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensors and used to construct [near] global climatologies of severe hail. This retrieval, and others, have been tested using Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Ku-band precipitation radar, to assess their effectiveness and regional variability. A successful retrieval and climatology are those that correspond tightly to radar reflectivity and give minimal appearance of regional biases, especially with latitude. Satellite platforms offer consistent observations, even in remote, data-sparse, and oceanic regions that ground-based networks exclude. There are, however, potential disconnects between the processes identified aloft by the satellite and the resultant weather at the ground, leading to uncertainties in the retrievals that may propagate into satellite-based climatologies, particularly in the Tropics, where there are abundant strong - but not necessarily hailing - storms that are strongly represented in the current satellite climatologies. There are ongoing efforts to assess and mitigate the contributing factors to these uncertainties, chiefly among them the effects of non-uniform beam filling in the passive-microwave footprint, and the relationships between the size distributions of hailstones aloft and the dynamic processes and environments with which they interact throughout their trajectories.

Sarah D Bang↗

Mars Dust Storm Effects in the Ionosphere and Magnetosphere and Implications for Atmospheric Carbon Loss

Mars regional and global dust storms are able to impact the lower/upper atmospheres through dust aerosol radiative heating and cooling and atmospheric circulation. Here we present the first attempt to globally investigate how the dust impact transfers from the neutral upper atmosphere to the ionosphere and the induced magnetosphere above 100-km altitude. This is achieved by running a multifluid magnetohydrodynamic model under nondusty and dusty atmospheric conditions for the 2017 late-winter regional storm and the 1971–1972 global storm. In this paper, our results show that the dayside main ionospheric layer (below ~250-km altitude) undergoes an overall upwelling, where photochemical reactions dominate. The peak electron density remains unchanged, and the peak altitude shift is in accordance with the upper atmospheric expansion (~5 and ~15 km for the regional and global storms, respectively). Controlled by the day-to-night transport, the nightside ionosphere responds to the dust storms in a close connection with what happens on the dayside but not apparently with the ambient atmospheric change. At higher altitudes, dust-induced perturbations propagate upward from the ionosphere to the magnetosphere and extend from the dayside to the nightside, within a broad region bounded by the induced magnetospheric boundary. It is found that the global dust storm is able to dramatically enhance the CO⁺₂ loss by a factor of ~3, which amounts to an increase of ~20% or more for total carbon loss (in the forms of neutrals and ions). Strong dust storms are a potentially important factor in atmospheric evolution at Mars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗