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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

A dynamic data-driven method for dealing with model structural error in soil moisture data assimilation

Attributing to the flexibility in considering various types of observation error and model error, data assimilation has been increasingly applied to dynamically improve soil moisture modeling in many hydrological practices. However, accurate characterization of model error, especially the part caused by defective model structure, presents a significant challenge to the successful implementation of data assimilation. Model structural error has received limited attention relative to parameter and input errors, mainly due to our poor understanding of structural inadequacy and the difficulties in parameterizing structural error. In this paper, we present a dynamic data-driven approach to estimate the model structural error in soil moisture data assimilation without the need for identifying error generation mechanism or specifying particular form for the error model. The error model is based on the Gaussian process regression and then integrated into the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) to form a hybrid method for dealing with multi-source model errors. Two variants of the hybrid method in terms of two different error correction manners are proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is tested through a suit of synthetic cases and a real-world case. Results demonstrate the potential of the proposed hybrid method for estimating model structural error and providing improved model predictions. Compared to the traditional EnKF without explicitly considering the model structural error, parameter compensation issue is obviously reduced and soil moisture retrieval is substantially improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2000

Structural Modeling Using "Scanning and Mapping" Technique

Supported by NASA Glenn Center, we are in the process developing a structural damage diagnostic and monitoring system for rocket engines, which consists of five modules: Structural Modeling, Measurement Data Pre-Processor, Structural System Identification, Damage Detection Criterion, and Computer Visualization. The function of the system is to detect damage as it is incurred by the engine structures. The scientific principle to identify damage is to utilize the changes in the vibrational properties between the pre-damaged and post-damaged structures. The vibrational properties of the pre-damaged structure can be obtained based on an analytic computer model of the structure. Thus, as the first stage of the whole research plan, we currently focus on the first module - Structural Modeling. Three computer software packages are selected, and will be integrated for this purpose. They are PhotoModeler-Pro, AutoCAD-R14, and MSC/NASTRAN. AutoCAD is the most popular PC-CAD system currently available in the market. For our purpose, it plays like an interface to generate structural models of any particular engine parts or assembly, which is then passed to MSC/NASTRAN for extracting structural dynamic properties. Although AutoCAD is a powerful structural modeling tool, the complexity of engine components requires a further improvement in structural modeling techniques. We are working on a so-called "scanning and mapping" technique, which is a relatively new technique. The basic idea is to producing a full and accurate 3D structural model by tracing on multiple overlapping photographs taken from different angles. There is no need to input point positions, angles, distances or axes. Photographs can be taken by any types of cameras with different lenses. With the integration of such a modeling technique, the capability of structural modeling will be enhanced. The prototypes of any complex structural components will be produced by PhotoModeler first based on existing similar components, then passed to AutoCAD for modification and correction of any discrepancies seen in the Photomodeler version of the 3Dmodel. These three software packages are fully compatible. The DXF file can be used to transfer drawings among those packages. To begin this entire process, we are using a small replica of an actual engine blade as a test object. This paper introduces the accomplishment of our recent work.

Amos, Courtney L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Simplified Aerodynamic and Structural Modeling for Oblique All-Wing Aircraft. Phase 2: Structures

Any aircraft preliminary design study requires a structural model of the proposed configuration. The model must be capable of estimating the structural weight of a given configuration, and of predicting the deflections which will result from foreseen flight and ground loads. The present work develops such a model for the proposed Oblique All Wing airplane. The model is based on preliminary structural work done by Jack Williams and Peter Rudolph at Mdng, and is encoded in a FORTRAN program. As a stand-alone application, the program can calculate the weight CG location, and several types of structural deflections; used in conjunction with an aerodynamics model, the program can be used for mission analysis or sizing studies.

Kroo, Ilan↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Efficient Model-based Diagnosis Engine for Hybrid Systems Using Structural Model Decomposition

Complex hybrid systems are present in a large range of engineering applications, like mechanical systems, electrical circuits, or embedded computation systems. The behavior of these systems is made up of continuous and discrete event dynamics that increase the difficulties for accurate and timely online fault diagnosis. The Hybrid Diagnosis Engine (HyDE) offers flexibility to the diagnosis application designer to choose the modeling paradigm and the reasoning algorithms. The HyDE architecture supports the use of multiple modeling paradigms at the component and system level. However, HyDE faces some problems regarding performance in terms of complexity and time. Our focus in this paper is on developing efficient model-based methodologies for online fault diagnosis in complex hybrid systems. To do this, we propose a diagnosis framework where structural model decomposition is integrated within the HyDE diagnosis framework to reduce the computational complexity associated with the fault diagnosis of hybrid systems. As a case study, we apply our approach to a diagnostic testbed, the Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT), using real data.

Structural Decomposition↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1979

Optimal estimation of large structure model errors

In-flight estimation of large structure model errors is usually required as a means of detecting inevitable deficiencies in large structure controller/estimator models. The present paper deals with a least-squares formulation which seeks to minimize a quadratic functional of the model errors. The properties of these error estimates are analyzed. It is shown that an arbitrary model error can be decomposed as the sum of two components that are orthogonal in a suitably defined function space. Relations between true and estimated errors are defined. The estimates are found to be approximations that retain many of the significant dynamics of the true model errors. Current efforts are directed toward application of the analytical results to a reference large structure model.

Rodriguez, G.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Hierarchical mixture of experts and diagnostic modeling approach to reduce hydrologic model structural uncertainty

In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. Furthermore, the results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

De novo atomic protein structure modeling for cryoEM density maps using 3D transformer and HMM

Accurately building 3D atomic structures from cryo-EM density maps is a crucial step in cryo-EM-based protein structure determination. Converting density maps into 3D atomic structures for proteins lacking accurate homologous or predicted structures as templates remains a significant challenge. Here, we introduce Cryo2Struct, a fully automated de novo cryo-EM structure modeling method. Cryo2Struct utilizes a 3D transformer to identify atoms and amino acid types in cryo-EM density maps, followed by an innovative Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to connect predicted atoms and build protein backbone structures. Cryo2Struct produces substantially more accurate and complete protein structural models than the widely used ab initio method Phenix. Additionally, its performance in building atomic structural models is robust against changes in the resolution of density maps and the size of protein structures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

STEP and STEPSPL: Computer programs for aerodynamic model structure determination and parameter estimation

The successful parametric modeling of the aerodynamics for an airplane operating at high angles of attack or sideslip is performed in two phases. First the aerodynamic model structure must be determined and second the associated aerodynamic parameters (stability and control derivatives) must be estimated for that model. The purpose of this paper is to document two versions of a stepwise regression computer program which were developed for the determination of airplane aerodynamic model structure and to provide two examples of their use on computer generated data. References are provided for the application of the programs to real flight data. The two computer programs that are the subject of this report, STEP and STEPSPL, are written in FORTRAN IV (ANSI l966) compatible with a CDC FTN4 compiler. Both programs are adaptations of a standard forward stepwise regression algorithm. The purpose of the adaptation is to facilitate the selection of a adequate mathematical model of the aerodynamic force and moment coefficients of an airplane from flight test data. The major difference between STEP and STEPSPL is in the basis for the model. The basis for the model in STEP is the standard polynomial Taylor's series expansion of the aerodynamic function about some steady-state trim condition. Program STEPSPL utilizes a set of spline basis functions.

Batterson, J. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multi‐fidelity digital twin structural model for a sub‐scale downwind wind turbine rotor blade

Abstract This paper presents the development of a multi‐fidelity digital twin structural model (virtual model) of an as‐built wind turbine blade. The goal is to develop and demonstrate an approach to produce an accurate and detailed model of the as‐built blade for use in verifying the performance of the operating two‐bladed, downwind rotor. The digital twin model development methodology, presented herein, involves a novel calibration process to integrate a wide range of information including design specifications, manufacturing information, and structural testing data (modal and static) to produce a multi‐fidelity digital twin structural model: a detailed high‐fidelity model (i.e., 3D finite element analysis [FEA]) and consistent beam‐type models for aeroelastic simulation. A key element is that the multi‐fidelity structural digital twin method follows the rotor from the stages of design, to manufacturing, then to the ground testing and field operation. The result of this comprehensive approach is an accurate multi‐fidelity digital twin structural model for the geometric, structural, and structural dynamic properties of the as‐built blade within a 1% match in mass properties, 3.2% in blade frequencies, and 6% in deflection. The different stages of processing this information within the methodology are discussed. The rotor examined is the SUMR‐Demonstrator (SUMR‐D), which was installed on the Controls Advanced Research Testbed (CART‐2) wind turbine at the National Wind Technology Center. The digital twin model developed here was utilized to design controllers to safely operate SUMR‐D in field tests, which are providing additional data for further evaluation and development of the multi‐fidelity digital twin structural model.

Chetan, Mayank↗
NASA NTRS1991

Engine Structures Modeling Software System (ESMOSS)

Engine Structures Modeling Software System (ESMOSS) is the development of a specialized software system for the construction of geometric descriptive and discrete analytical models of engine parts, components, and substructures which can be transferred to finite element analysis programs such as NASTRAN. The NASA Lewis Engine Structures Program is concerned with the development of technology for the rational structural design and analysis of advanced gas turbine engines with emphasis on advanced structural analysis, structural dynamics, structural aspects of aeroelasticity, and life prediction. Fundamental and common to all of these developments is the need for geometric and analytical model descriptions at various engine assembly levels which are generated using ESMOSS.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2019

Model Structural Inference Using Local Dynamic Operators

This paper focuses on the problem of quantifying the effects of model-structure uncertainty in the context of time-evolving dynamical systems. This is motivated by multi-model uncertainty in computer physics simulations: developers often make different modeling choices in numerical approximations and process simplifications, leading to different numerical codes that ostensibly represent the same underlying dynamics. We consider model-structure inference as a two-step methodology: the first step is to perform system identification on numerical codes for which it is possible to observe the full state; the second step is structural uncertainty quantification, in which the goal is to search candidate models "close" to the numerical code surrogates for those that best match a quantity of interest (QOI) from some empirical data sets. Here, we (1) define a discrete, local representation of the structure of a partial differential equation, which we refer to as the "local dynamical operator" (LDO); (2) identify model structure nonintrusively from numerical code output; (3) nonintrusively construct a reduced-order model (ROM) of the numerical model through POD-DEIM-Galerkin projection; (4) perturb the ROM dynamics to approximate the behavior of alternate model structures; and (5) apply Bayesian inference and energy conservation laws to calibrate a LDO to a given QOI. We demonstrate these techniques using the two-dimensional rotating shallow water equations as an example system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coupling of regional geophysics and local soil-structure models in the EQSIM fault-to-structure earthquake simulation framework

Accurate understanding and quantification of the risk to critical infrastructure posed by future large earthquakes continues to be a very challenging problem. Earthquake phenomena are quite complex and traditional approaches to predicting ground motions for future earthquake events have historically been empirically based whereby measured ground motion data from historical earthquakes are homogenized into a common data set and the ground motions for future postulated earthquakes are probabilistically derived based on the historical observations. This procedure has recognized significant limitations, principally due to the fact that earthquake ground motions tend to be dictated by the particular earthquake fault rupture and geologic conditions at a given site and are thus very site-specific. Historical earthquakes recorded at different locations are often only marginally representative. There has been strong and increasing interest in utilizing large-scale, physics-based regional simulations to advance the ability to accurately predict ground motions and associated infrastructure response. However, the computational requirements for simulations at frequencies of engineering interest have proven a major barrier to employing regional scale simulations. In a U.S. Department of Energy Exascale Computing Initiative project, the EQSIM application development is underway to create a framework for fault-to-structure simulations. This framework is being prepared to exploit emerging exascale platforms in order to overcome computational limitations. This article presents the essential methodology and computational workflow employed in EQSIM to couple regional-scale geophysics models with local soil-structure models to achieve a fully integrated, complete fault-to-structure simulation framework. Here, the computational workflow, accuracy and performance of the coupling methodology are illustrated through example fault-to-structure simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantifying model-structure- and parameter-driven uncertainties in spring wheat phenology prediction with Bayesian analysis

Recent international efforts have brought renewed emphasis on the comparison of different agricultural systems models. Thus far, analysis of model-ensemble simulated results has not clearly differentiated between ensemble prediction uncertainties due to model structural differences per se and those due to parameter value uncertainties. Additionally, despite increasing use of Bayesian parameter estimation approaches with field-scale crop models, inadequate attention has been given to the full posterior distributions for estimated parameters. The objectives of this study were to quantify the impact of parameter value uncertainty on prediction uncertainty for modeling spring wheat phenology using Bayesian analysis and to assess the relative contributions of model-structure-driven and parameter-value-driven uncertainty to overall prediction uncertainty. This study used a random walk Metropolis algorithm to estimate parameters for 30 spring wheat genotypes using nine phenology models based on multi-location trial data for days to heading and days to maturity. Across all cases, parameter-driven uncertainty accounted for between 19 and 52% of predictive uncertainty, while model-structure-driven uncertainty accounted for between 12 and 64%. Here, this study demonstrated the importance of quantifying both model-structure- and parameter-value-driven uncertainty when assessing overall prediction uncertainty in modeling spring wheat phenology. More generally, Bayesian parameter estimation provided a useful framework for quantifying and analyzing sources of prediction uncertainty.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Structural models of the MscL gating mechanism

Three-dimensional structural models of the mechanosensitive channel of large conductance, MscL, from the bacteria Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Escherichia coli were developed for closed, intermediate, and open conformations. The modeling began with the crystal structure of M. tuberculosis MscL, a homopentamer with two transmembrane alpha-helices, M1 and M2, per subunit. The first 12 N-terminal residues, not resolved in the crystal structure, were modeled as an amphipathic alpha-helix, called S1. A bundle of five parallel S1 helices are postulated to form a cytoplasmic gate. As membrane tension induces expansion, the tilts of M1 and M2 are postulated to increase as they move away from the axis of the pore. Substantial expansion is postulated to occur before the increased stress in the S1 to M1 linkers pulls the S1 bundle apart. During the opening transition, the S1 helices and C-terminus amphipathic alpha-helices, S3, are postulated to dock parallel to the membrane surface on the perimeter of the complex. The proposed gating mechanism reveals critical spatial relationships between the expandable transmembrane barrel formed by M1 and M2, the gate formed by S1 helices, and "strings" that link S1s to M1s. These models are consistent with numerous experimental results and modeling criteria.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Feedback density and causal complexity of simulation model structure

Measures of simulation model complexity generally focus on outputs; we propose measuring the complexity of a model’s causal structure to gain insight into its fundamental character. This article introduces tools for measuring causal complexity. First, we introduce a method for developing a model’s causal structure diagram, which characterises the causal interactions present in the code. Causal structure diagrams facilitate comparison of simulation models, including those from different paradigms. Next, we develop metrics for evaluating a model’s causal complexity using its causal structure diagram. We discuss cyclomatic complexity as a measure of the intricacy of causal structure and introduce two new metrics that incorporate the concept of feedback, a fundamental component of causal structure. The first new metric introduced here is feedback density, a measure of the cycle-based interconnectedness of causal structure. The second metric combines cyclomatic complexity and feedback density into a comprehensive causal complexity measure. Finally, we demonstrate these complexity metrics on simulation models from multiple paradigms and discuss potential uses and interpretations. These tools enable direct comparison of models across paradigms and provide a mechanism for measuring and discussing complexity based on a model’s fundamental assumptions and design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

The multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT v1.0): R code for generating ensembles with dynamic model structure and analysis of epistemic uncertainty from multiple sources

Abstract. Here, computer models are ubiquitous tools used to represent systems across many scientific and engineering domains. For any given system, many computer models exist, each built on different assumptions and demonstrating variability in the ways in which these systems can be represented. This variability is known as epistemic uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty in our knowledge of how these systems operate. Two primary sources of epistemic uncertainty are (1) uncertain parameter values and (2) uncertain mathematical representations of the processes that comprise the system. Many formal methods exist to analyse parameter-based epistemic uncertainty, while process-representation-based epistemic uncertainty is often analysed post hoc, incompletely, informally, or is ignored. In this model description paper we present the multi-assumption architecture and testbed (MAAT v1.0) designed to formally and completely analyse process-representation-based epistemic uncertainty. MAAT is a modular modelling code that can simply and efficiently vary model structure (process representation), allowing for the generation and running of large model ensembles that vary in process representation, parameters, parameter values, and environmental conditions during a single execution of the code. MAAT v1.0 approaches epistemic uncertainty through sensitivity analysis, assigning variability in model output to processes (process representation and parameters) or to individual parameters. In this model description paper we describe MAAT and, by using a simple groundwater model example, verify that the sensitivity analysis algorithms have been correctly implemented. The main system model currently coded in MAAT is a unified, leaf-scale enzyme kinetic model of C 3 photosynthesis. In the Appendix we describe the photosynthesis model and the unification of multiple representations of photosynthetic processes. The numerical solution to leaf-scale photosynthesis is verified and examples of process variability in temperature response functions are provided. For rapid application to new systems, the MAAT algorithms for efficient variation of model structure and sensitivity analysis are agnostic of the specific system model employed. Therefore MAAT provides a tool for the development of novel or toy models in many domains, i.e. not only photosynthesis, facilitating rapid informal and formal comparison of alternative modelling approaches.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1992

Track structure model of cell damage in space flight

The phenomenological track-structure model of cell damage is discussed. A description of the application of the track-structure model with the NASA Langley transport code for laboratory and space radiation is given. Comparisons to experimental results for cell survival during exposure to monoenergetic, heavy-ion beams are made. The model is also applied to predict cell damage rates and relative biological effectiveness for deep-space exposures.

Katz, Robert↗