Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Scenario Generation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

An intelligent training system for space shuttle flight controllers

An autonomous intelligent training system which integrates expert system technology with training/teaching methodologies is described. The system was designed to train Mission Control Center (MCC) Flight Dynamics Officers (FDOs) to deploy a certain type of satellite from the Space Shuttle. The Payload-assist module Deploys/Intelligent Computer-Aided Training (PD/ICAT) system consists of five components: a user interface, a domain expert, a training session manager, a trainee model, and a training scenario generator. The interface provides the trainee with information of the characteristics of the current training session and with on-line help. The domain expert (Dep1Ex for Deploy Expert) contains the rules and procedural knowledge needed by the FDO to carry out the satellite deploy. The Dep1Ex also contains mal-rules which permit the identification and diagnosis of common errors made by the trainee. The training session manager (TSM) examines the actions of the trainee and compares them with the actions of Dep1Ex in order to determine appropriate responses. A trainee model is developed for each individual using the system. The model includes a history of the trainee's interactions with the training system and provides evaluative data on the trainee's current skill level. A training scenario generator (TSG) designs appropriate training exercises for each trainee based on the trainee model and the training goals. All of the expert system components of PD/ICAT communicate via a common blackboard. The PD/ICAT is currently being tested. Ultimately, this project will serve as a vehicle for developing a general architecture for intelligent training systems together with a software environment for creating such systems.

Loftin, R. Bowen↗

MisTec: A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

The structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this king of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Horsham, Gary A. P.↗

MisTec - A software application for supporting space exploration scenario options and technology development analysis and planning

This structure and composition of a new, emerging software application, which models and analyzes space exploration scenario options for feasibility based on technology development projections is presented. The software application consists of four main components: a scenario generator for designing and inputting scenario options and constraints; a processor which performs algorithmic coupling and options analyses of mission activity requirements and technology capabilities; a results display which graphically and textually shows coupling and options analysis results; and a data/knowledge base which contains information on a variety of mission activities and (power and propulsion) technology system capabilities. The general long-range study process used by NASA to support recent studies is briefly introduced to provide the primary basis for comparison for discussing the potential advantages to be gained from developing and applying this kind of application. A hypothetical example of a scenario option to facilitate the best conceptual understanding of what the application is, how it works, or the operating methodology, and when it might be applied is presented.

Horsham, Gary A. P.↗

Scenario Complexity for Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic

This work introduces an approach to estimate the complexity of a low-altitude air traffic scenario involving multiple UASs using mathematical programming. Given a set of multi-point UAS flight trajectories, vehicle dynamics, and a conflict resolution algorithm, an abstract model is developed such that it can be solved quickly using a mathematical programming optimization software without running high-fidelity simulations that can be computationally expensive and may not suit real-time apA quick and accurate assessment of complexity for a given traffic scenario can help plan and schedule flights to alleviate traffic bottleneck and mitigate operation risks, especially for unmanned aerial system traffic management where high traffic density or complexity is expected. This work introduces a traffic scenario complexity metric that was constructed based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. The cost associated with a conflict is calculated based on the corresponding conflict resolution maneuvers. To obtain the conflict resolution maneuvers, a MILP-based optimization was formulated with the vehicle model and conflict management parameters incorporated. To evaluate the complexity metrics, an approach of using measurements from high-fidelity simulations was proposed. The scenario complexity measurements for 920 random-generated scenarios were obtained through high-fidelity simulations and treated as the ground truth. Two statistics methods: Pearson and Alternative Conditional Expectations were applied for analysis. The results showed that the number of flights has low correlation with the scenario complexity according to the correlation coefficients calculated by both methods. The Alternative Conditional Expectations method shows that the proposed scenario complexity metric has better correlation with the ground truth than the number of potential conflicts.plications. In the abstract model, each vehicle is represented by a time-varied vector associated with position, speed, and heading information. The total extra distance that aircraft need to divert from their original routes to avoid collisions is computed and used to setup a quadratic programming formula. The metrics including the number of conflicts and extra distances travelled by all vehicles are then utilized to estimate the complexity of a given UAS flight scenario. Results and verification against high-fidelity simulations will be provided in the final draft.

traffic complexity↗

A Ground-Delay-Based Approach to Reduce Impedance-Based Airspace Complexity

This paper introduces a ground delay based traffic management approach to reduce the impedance based airspace complexity for a given scenario. The preliminary work presented here extends our prior research on developing an impedance based complexity metric for unmanned aircraft system traffic scenario classification. Impedance based metric was evaluated for 1045 randomly-generated scenarios. Scenarios with overall impedance above a certain threshold were declared as no-go. A ground delay approach was developed to be applied to the rest of the scenarios so as to remediate any scenarios with small areas of high impedance on their impedance maps. A sample application is shown for a scenario with sixty flights. The final paper will include detailed trade-offs between overall accrued system delay and the delay tolerance for each aircraft. A sample application to a potential Urban Air Mobility traffic scenario will also be included in the final paper.

Vishwanath Bulusu↗

A Ground-Delay-Based Approach to Reduce Impedance-Based Airspace Complexity

This paper introduces a ground-delay-based traffic management approach to reduce the impedance-based airspace complexity for a given scenario. This work extends our prior research on developing an impedance-based complexity metric for unmanned aircraft system traffic scenario classification. Impedance-based metric was evaluated for 1045 randomly generated scenarios. Scenarios with overall impedance above a certain threshold were declared as not feasible. A ground-delay-based approach was developed to be applied to the rest of the scenarios so as to remediate any scenarios with small areas of high impedance on their impedance maps. A sample application is shown for a scenario with sixty flights. The detailed trade-offs between overall accrued system delay, the number of delayed flights, the total number of conflicts and the highest impedance observed as a function of the delay tolerance for each aircraft are provided. Potential applications to Urban Air Mobility traffic scenarios are also discussed.

ground-delay based traffic management↗

An Impedance-Based Complexity Metric for Unmanned Aircraft System Traffic Scenario Classification

This paper introduces an impedance-based metric to capture the complexity of a given unmanned aircraft system traffic scenario. The metric accounts for both the number of aircraft and the traffic flow pattern. The work presented here extends an earlier approach that introduced another scenario complexity metric based on the number of potential conflicts weighted by the conflict resolution cost associated. Complexity measurements for randomly-generated scenarios were produced through high-fidelity fast-time simulations and treated as baseline. Then the impedance based metric was evaluated, for the same scenarios, without the need for an actual flight simulation and a conflict resolution method. The results show that the impedance-based metric has a strong correlation to the baseline data and performs marginally better than the weighted conflict-based complexity metric introduced in the earlier work. The metric computation generates impedance maps which are useful for identifying high complexity regions in a scenario, where flight plan changes might be necessitated. This metric can therefore be used, in conjunction with other complexity metrics, to inform adequate traffic management strategies and classify a traffic scenario as acceptable, unacceptable or acceptable with changes made to flight plans that pass through the high complexity regions. The metric can also be used as a guidance metric for strategic conflict management methods.

Complexity↗

Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for localized intense rainfall events) observed in the region can be a key factor for managed ecosystems and water management and could also lead to more incidence of severe urban flooding. The results could be used to assess both mitigation and adaptation alternatives to reduce vulnerabilities in managed ecosystems (agricultural and urban) and water resources.

agriculture↗

Lunar base surface mission operations. Lunar Base Systems Study (LBSS) task 4.1

The purpose was to perform an analysis of the surface operations associated with a human-tended lunar base. Specifically, the study defined surface elements and developed mission manifests for a selected base scenario, determined the nature of surface operations associated with this scenario, generated a preliminary crew extravehicular and intravehicular activity (EVA/IVA) time resource schedule for conducting the missions, and proposed concepts for utilizing remotely operated equipment to perform repetitious or hazardous surface tasks. The operations analysis was performed on a 6 year period of human-tended lunar base operation prior to permanent occupancy. The baseline scenario was derived from a modified version of the civil needs database (CNDB) scenario. This scenario emphasizes achievement of a limited set of science and exploration objectives while emplacing the minimum habitability elements required for a permanent base.

Source record↗

Safety Assessment of Conformance Monitoring for Situational Awareness in UTM Operations

This report presents a systematic approach to evaluating the safety benefit of utilizing strategic deconfliction and Conformance Monitoring for Situational Awareness to manage the traffic that is comprised of both conforming aircraft and contingent aircraft. First, we developed a Monte-Carlo-based simulation platform that generates a range of nominal flight paths, a set of flight paths associated with contingent aircraft, encounters between conforming and contingent aircraft, and simulates aircraft's reported positions within conformance bounds. Next, we derived the mathematical equations for quantifying the level of safety, represented by the probability of mid-air collision per flight hour, using the flight data from the simulation platform. Finally, we compared the safety benefit of CMSA services in scenarios generated at different traffic densities and rates of contingent aircraft. This study suggests that strategic deconfliction and CMSA services can collaboratively handle traffic mixed with conforming and contingent aircraft more safely than strategic deconfliction alone.

CMSA↗

Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

Callahan, John R.↗

Development of a High-Fidelity Simulation Environment for Shadow-Mode Assessments of Air Traffic Concepts

This paper will describe the purpose, architecture, and implementation of a gate-to-gate, high-fidelity air traffic simulation environment called the Shadow Mode Assessment using Realistic Technologies for the National Airspace System (SMART-NAS) Test Bed.The overarching purpose of the SMART-NAS Test Bed (SNTB) is to conduct high-fidelity, real-time, human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations of current and proposed future air traffic concepts for the Next Generation Air Transportation System of the United States, called NextGen. SNTB is intended to enable simulations that are currently impractical or impossible for three major areas of NextGen research and development: Concepts across multiple operational domains such as the gate-to-gate trajectory-based operations concept; Concepts related to revolutionary operations such as the seamless and widespread integration of large and small Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) vehicles throughout U.S. airspace; Real-time system-wide safety assurance technologies to allow safe, increasingly autonomous aviation operations. SNTB is primarily accessed through a web browser. A set of secure support services are provided to simplify all aspects of real-time, human-in-the-loop and automation-in-the-loop simulations from design (i.e., prior to execution) through analysis (i.e., after execution). These services include simulation architecture and asset configuration; scenario generation; command, control and monitoring; and analysis support.

human-in-the-loop↗

The X-ray spectrum of QSO 0241+622

Proportional counters on the OsO-8 spacecraft measured the X-ray spectrum of QSR 0241+622 in the range 2-50 keV. The best power law fit has a proton spectral index and 90 percent errors gamma = 1.93 (+0.5, -0.3) and low energy absorption consistent with reported gas column densities, but a thermal bremsstrahlung form with temperature 13.1 keV cannot be excluded. No indication of spectral variability is found in three observations of the source with HEAO-A2, although a possible 15-30 percent intensity change over a period of 6 months was observed. The quasar is similar to 3C 273 in the proportion of energy emitted in various bands, excluding the radio, if reported radiation above 50 keV from its direction is indeed associated with QSO 0241+622. The two quasars are compared and possible energy generation scenarios are discussed. Implications concerning quasar contributions to the diffuse background are discussed.

Worrall, D. M.↗

The X-ray spectrum of QSO 0241 + 622

The X-ray spectrum of QSO 0241 + 622 in the range 2-50 keV measured with the Goddard Space Flight Center proportional counters on OSO 8 is presented. The quasar is similar to 3C 273 in the proportion of energy emitted in various bands, excluding the radio, if reported radiation above 50 keV from its direction is indeed associated with QSO 0241 + 622. Comparisons are made between the two quasars in a discussion of possible energy generation scenarios. Implications concerning quasar contributions to the diffuse background are discussed.

Worrall, D. M.↗

A general architecture for intelligent training systems

A preliminary design of a general architecture for autonomous intelligent training systems was developed. The architecture integrates expert system technology with teaching/training methodologies to permit the production of systems suitable for use by NASA, other government agencies, industry, and academia in the training of personnel for the performance of complex, mission-critical tasks. The proposed architecture consists of five elements: a user interface, a domain expert, a training session manager, a trainee model, and a training scenario generator. The design of this architecture was guided and its efficacy tested through the development of a system for use by Mission Control Center Flight Dynamics Officers in training to perform Payload-Assist Module Deploys from the orbiter.

Loftin, R. Bowen↗

Toward a complete EOS data and information system

Based on NASA EOS data panel analyses, an architectural concept is described in terms of elemental composition, top-level functions, and external and internal interfaces. This concept has been evaluated through the use of realistic user-generated scenarios consistent with existing plans for the 1990s and the Space Station. Developmental approaches for the requisite EOS data and information system are presented and a hybrid methodology for implementing this system is discussed.

Chase, Robert R. P.↗

Advanced training systems for the next decade and beyond

Autonomous training systems grouped under the term intelligent computer-aided training (ICAT) are described with references to their intelligent technologies. An ICAT system was developed for the deployment of the payload-assist module satellites from the Space Shuttle, fault detection in vacuum-vent lines on Spacelab, main-propulsion pneumatics, and for instrument pointing systems. The basic ICAT architecture is delineated with descriptions of elements such as the user interface, domain expert, traning-session manager, trainee model, and training-scenario generator. The ICAT systems employ advanced technologies including knowledge acquisition, virtual environments, and fuzzy logic. The general architecture of the ICAT systems is shown to be fully developed and applicable to the construction of seven different tasks, and the ICAT systems are concluded to enhance the training of aerospace personnel.

Loftin, R. B.↗

General purpose architecture for intelligent computer-aided training

An intelligent computer-aided training system having a general modular architecture is provided for use in a wide variety of training tasks and environments. It is comprised of a user interface which permits the trainee to access the same information available in the task environment and serves as a means for the trainee to assert actions to the system; a domain expert which is sufficiently intelligent to use the same information available to the trainee and carry out the task assigned to the trainee; a training session manager for examining the assertions made by the domain expert and by the trainee for evaluating such trainee assertions and providing guidance to the trainee which are appropriate to his acquired skill level; a trainee model which contains a history of the trainee interactions with the system together with summary evaluative data; an intelligent training scenario generator for designing increasingly complex training exercises based on the current skill level contained in the trainee model and on any weaknesses or deficiencies that the trainee has exhibited in previous interactions; and a blackboard that provides a common fact base for communication between the other components of the system. Preferably, the domain expert contains a list of 'mal-rules' which typifies errors that are usually made by novice trainees. Also preferably, the training session manager comprises an intelligent error detection means and an intelligent error handling means. The present invention utilizes a rule-based language having a control structure whereby a specific message passing protocol is utilized with respect to tasks which are procedural or step-by-step in structure. The rules can be activated by the trainee in any order to reach the solution by any valid or correct path.

Loftin, R. Bowen↗