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A Hybrid Power Management (HPM) Based Vehicle Architecture

Society desires vehicles with reduced fuel consumption and reduced emissions. This presents a challenge and an opportunity for industry and the government. The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center (GRC) has developed a Hybrid Power Management (HPM) based vehicle architecture for space and terrestrial vehicles. GRC's Electrical and Electromagnetics Branch of the Avionics and Electrical Systems Division initiated the HPM Program for the GRC Technology Transfer and Partnership Office. HPM is the innovative integration of diverse, state-of-the-art power devices in an optimal configuration for space and terrestrial applications. The appropriate application and control of the various power devices significantly improves overall system performance and efficiency. The basic vehicle architecture consists of a primary power source, and possibly other power sources, providing all power to a common energy storage system, which is used to power the drive motors and vehicle accessory systems, as well as provide power as an emergency power system. Each component is independent, permitting it to be optimized for its intended purpose. This flexible vehicle architecture can be applied to all vehicles to considerably improve system efficiency, reliability, safety, security, and performance. This unique vehicle architecture has the potential to alleviate global energy concerns, improve the environment, stimulate the economy, and enable new missions.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗

Hybrid Power Management-Based Vehicle Architecture

Hybrid Power Management (HPM) is the integration of diverse, state-of-the-art power devices in an optimal configuration for space and terrestrial applications (s ee figure). The appropriate application and control of the various power devices significantly improves overall system performance and efficiency. The basic vehicle architecture consists of a primary power source, and possibly other power sources, that provides all power to a common energy storage system that is used to power the drive motors and vehicle accessory systems. This architecture also provides power as an emergency power system. Each component is independent, permitting it to be optimized for its intended purpose. The key element of HPM is the energy storage system. All generated power is sent to the energy storage system, and all loads derive their power from that system. This can significantly reduce the power requirement of the primary power source, while increasing the vehicle reliability. Ultracapacitors are ideal for an HPM-based energy storage system due to their exceptionally long cycle life, high reliability, high efficiency, high power density, and excellent low-temperature performance. Multiple power sources and multiple loads are easily incorporated into an HPM-based vehicle. A gas turbine is a good primary power source because of its high efficiency, high power density, long life, high reliability, and ability to operate on a wide range of fuels. An HPM controller maintains optimal control over each vehicle component. This flexible operating system can be applied to all vehicles to considerably improve vehicle efficiency, reliability, safety, security, and performance. The HPM-based vehicle architecture has many advantages over conventional vehicle architectures. Ultracapacitors have a much longer cycle life than batteries, which greatly improves system reliability, reduces life-of-system costs, and reduces environmental impact as ultracapacitors will probably never need to be replaced and disposed of. The environmentally safe ultracapacitor components reduce disposal concerns, and their recyclable nature reduces the environmental impact. High ultracapacitor power density provides high power during surges, and the ability to absorb high power during recharging. Ultracapacitors are extremely efficient in capturing recharging energy, are rugged, reliable, maintenance-free, have excellent lowtemperature characteristic, provide consistent performance over time, and promote safety as they can be left indefinitely in a safe, discharged state whereas batteries cannot.

Eichenberg, Dennis J.↗

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy and advocacy at the agency, enabling future missions and advancing U.S. economic competitiveness. Specifically, OCT coordinates and uses inputs from abroad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OCT develops the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OCT has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OCT as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗

Corridor Design and Analysis for UAM Operations

The Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept is a part of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), a joint initiative between the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), NASA, and industry to develop an air transportation system that uses new electric (i.e., green) air vehicles in geographical areas previously underserved by traditional aviation. Market forecast studies predict that there will be demand for alternate modes of air transportation using electric Vertical Take-off and Landing aircraft. UAM expands transportation networks by introducing short flights to move people and goods around metropolitan areas​. UAM is expected to improve mobility for the public, decongest road traffic, reduce trip time, and decrease strain on existing public transportation networks. Various challenges exist to make the introduction of UAM operations successful in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS). These include but are not limited to integration with existing airports and airspace, provision of air traffic services (e.g., separation), vehicle design and certification, and community acceptance. The focus of this paper is on integration of UAM operations into the NAS via introduction of new airspace structures. UAM will operate within a regulatory, operational, and technical environment that is incorporated into the NAS​. As per the UAM Concept of Operations (ConOps), the FAA retains regulatory authority and is responsible for establishing operational parameters and maintaining oversight. The FAA’s UAM ConOps describes flights at low altitudes (below 5,000 ft) with minimal disruption to established conventional aircraft traffic and limited voice interactions with the Air Traffic Control (ATC). Early stages of UAM may use existing procedures to safely integrate UAM with conventional flights. This would involve flying under Part 91 Visual Flight Rules (VFR) and using voice for communications. The initial UAM ecosystem will utilize the current infrastructure such as routes, helipads, and ATC services, where practicable. ​A NASA study explored the use of existing helicopter routes in Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) airspace for initial UAM operations with a Letter of Agreement (LOA) that included procedures to request a Class B (controlled airspace) clearance. The research showed that the chosen approach was feasible for near-term, low-demand UAM traffic, but was not scalable. The growth of operations in today’s aviation system has resulted in airspace reorganization and procedures to ensure safety and efficiency as traffic rates increase. One proposed operating innovation that can help with the scalability of UAM is establishing routes and corridors. This may look similar to the Area Navigation (RNAV) procedures used today to streamline operations into busy airports. However, instead of FAA automation systems and ATC managing the flow of traffic, some UAM concepts envision a third-party service provider performing this role as part of the Provider of Services for UAM (PSU) network. The FAA’s UAM ConOps posits that new airspace structures such as UAM corridors include the following design criteria: 1) Minimal impact on existing NAS operations, 2) no or minimal additional ATC services, 3) public interest considerations such as noise, safety, and security, and 4) customer needs. The airspace available in urban environments is limited by the height of buildings, the effect of weather including wind gusts, privacy needs, and a clearance envelope. The new airspace structure would need to be designed around large airports and urban areas where the initial market demand is likely to exist. NASA has started evaluating airspace in the Dallas Fort Worth area to design new airspace structures, keeping the first two design criteria in mind. It is assumed that there will be an on-board pilot-in-command, and the flights will operate under VFR in Visual Meteorological Conditions. Corridors will be required in controlled airspace, whereas UAM operations can fly in uncontrolled Class G and E airspace using current day rules. Keeler et. al identified factors and heuristics for development of routes for UAM operations for integration with airspace close to large airports such as Dallas Fort Worth and Dallas Love Field. This paper describes the heuristics applied to define the corridors, analyzes them with respect to legacy traffic and presents key results.

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA Strategy for Technology Development

At the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), foresight is a coordinated, iterative, and continual process for making informed decisions. NASA faces diverse and relatively unique challenges and opportunities as the leading U.S. agency for aeronautics development, cutting-edge scientific discovery, and human space exploration. To address these challenges and leverage opportunities, NASA uses foresight to strategically plan technology development across four mission directorates: Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate, Space Technology Mission Directorate, Science Mission Directorate, and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (recently separated into the new Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate and Space Operations Mission Directorate). The mission directorates leverage a broad community of experts and partners to incorporate technology foresight into mission and program planning. Through this process NASA realizes tangible benefits to the agency’s science, technology, and exploration programs. As an independent office, NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) provides strategic advice, supported by independent assessments and rigorous analysis, to inform NASA senior leadership on key areas to align mission and agency-level activities. OTPS serves as a trusted authority to inform technology strategy at the agency to enable future missions. Specifically, OTPS coordinates and uses inputs from a broad community of experts, both internal and external to NASA, to inform decision making for technology plans, investments, and partnerships. OTPS develops and maintains the NASA Technology Taxonomy to standardize communication across the agency’s diverse technology portfolio and the related Strategic Technology Investment Plan that integrates priorities and informs technology investment. Through these efforts, OTPS has refined elements of foresight-informed strategic planning that may be applicable to other technology-driven industries where foresight is essential for resilience. This chapter describes the processes of foresight for technology development at NASA and provides insight into the value the agency derives from these processes. The chapter further describes the role of OTPS as an independent advisory office that supports NASA’s efforts to capitalize on foresight and strategic technology planning. We present these examples with consideration for how organizations in defense, security, and other technology-driven industries can operationalize foresight in their own strategic technology development.

Erica Rodgers↗

Analyzing the security of an existing computer system

Most work concerning secure computer systems has dealt with the design, verification, and implementation of provably secure computer systems, or has explored ways of making existing computer systems more secure. The problem of locating security holes in existing systems has received considerably less attention; methods generally rely on thought experiments as a critical step in the procedure. The difficulty is that such experiments require that a large amount of information be available in a format that makes correlating the details of various programs straightforward. This paper describes a method of providing such a basis for the thought experiment by writing a special manual for parts of the operating system, system programs, and library subroutines.

Bishop, M.↗

Enhanced Images for Checked and Carry-on Baggage and Cargo Screening

The current X-ray systems used by airport security personnel for the detection of contraband, and objects such as knives and guns that can impact the security of a flight, have limited effect because of the limited display quality of the X-ray images. Since the displayed images do not possess optimal contrast and sharpness, it is possible for the security personnel to miss potentially hazardous objects. This problem is also common to other disciplines such as medical Xrays, and can be mitigated, to a large extent, by the use of state-of-the-art image processing techniques to enhance the contrast and sharpness of the displayed image. The NASA Langley Research Center's Visual Information Processing Group has developed an image enhancement technology that has direct applications to this problem of inadequate display quality. Airport security X-ray imaging systems would benefit considerably by using this novel technology, making the task of the personnel who have to interpret the X-ray images considerably easier, faster, and more reliable. This improvement would translate into more accurate screening as well as minimizing the screening time delays to airline passengers. This technology, Retinex, has been optimized for consumer applications but has been applied to medical X-rays on a very preliminary basis. The resultant technology could be incorporated into a new breed of commercial x-ray imaging systems which would be transparent to the screener yet allow them to see subtle detail much more easily, reducing the amount of time needed for screening while greatly increasing the effectiveness of contraband detection and thus public safety.

Woodell, Glenn↗

Experimental study of flow past turbine blades

The requirements on gas turbines for aircraft power units, namely, adequate efficiency, operation at high gas temperatures, low weight, and small dimensions, must be taken into consideration during the design of the blading. To secure good efficiency, it is necessary that the gas flow past the blades as smoothly as possible without separation. This is relatively easily obtainable in the accelerated flow of turbine blading, if the blade spacing is chosen small enough. A small blade spacing, however, is detrimental to the other requirements outlined above. Operation at high gas temperatures usually calls for blade cooling. This cooling is associated with a power input that lowers the turbine efficiency. Since the amount of heat that must be carried off for coding a blade can be influenced rather little, the gross power input for a turbine stage can be reduced by keeping the number of blades to a minimum, that is, with blades of high spacing ratio. But here also a limit is imposed, the exceeding of which is followed by separation of flow. Hence the requirement of finding blade forms on which the flow separates at rather high spacing ratios .

Eckert, E.↗

Enhanced Images for Checked and Carry-on Baggage and Cargo Screening

The current X-ray systems used by airport security personnel for the detection of contraband, and objects such as knives and guns that can impact the security of a flight, have limited effect because of the limited display quality of the X-ray images. Since the displayed images do not possess optimal contrast and sharpness, it is possible for the security personnel to miss potentially hazardous objects. This problem is also common to other disciplines such as medical X-rays, and can be mitigated, to a large extent, by the use of state-of-the-art image processing techniques to enhance the contrast and sharpness of the displayed image. The NASA Langley Research Centers Visual Information Processing Group has developed an image enhancement technology that has direct applications to this problem of inadequate display quality. Airport security X-ray imaging systems would benefit considerably by using this novel technology, making the task of the personnel who have to interpret the X-ray images considerably easier, faster, and more reliable. This improvement would translate into more accurate screening as well as minimizing the screening time delays to airline passengers. This technology, Retinex, has been optimized for consumer applications but has been applied to medical X-rays on a very preliminary basis. The resultant technology could be incorporated into a new breed of commercial x-ray imaging systems which would be transparent to the screener yet allow them to see subtle detail much more easily, reducing the amount of time needed for screening while greatly increasing the effectiveness of contraband detection and thus public safety.

Woodell, Glen↗

Use of Multi-Spectral High Repetition Rate LED Systems for High Bandwidth Underwater Optical Communications, and Communications to Surface and Aerial Systems

A variety of both existing and developing sensors would benefit from near real time communication of high bandwidth data. To cite just one example, sensors that could more accurately report real-time positions of marine mammals would be useful in reducing whale-ship collisions. Similar considerations are relevant for maritime port and harbor security, including detection and alerts for divers or autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) that could pose a risk to ships. Especially in ports and harbors, field experiments have confirmed that acoustic communication in these cluttered and noisy shallow water environments, compounded with vertical reflecting surfaces formed by piers and pilings, can limit the reliability and utility of underwater acoustic communications. Moreover, many sensors have greater bandwidth requirements than acoustic communications are able to provide. We here discuss the development of high repetition rate multispectral LED optical systems initially developed for imaging, but also capable of simultaneous data transmission at rates of approximately100 kilobits per second. Results are discussed for the multispectral images from coral reefs in Guam, and data transmission experiments from underwater to surface vessels. Subsequent field efforts will extend data transmission from AUVs to unmanned aircraft systems (UAS).

Underwater↗

Architecting Safer Autonomous Aviation Systems

The aviation literature gives relatively little guidance to practitioners about the specifics of architecting systems for safety, particularly the impact of architecture on allocating safety requirements, or the relative ease of system assurance resulting from system or subsystem level architectural choices. As an exemplar, this paper considers common architectural patterns used within traditional aviation systems and explores their safety and safety assurance implications when applied in the context of integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) based functionality. Considering safety as an architectural property, we discuss both the allocation of safety requirements and the architectural trade-offs involved early in the design lifecycle. This approach could be extended to other assured properties, similar to safety, such as security. We conclude with a discussion of the safety considerations that emerge in the context of candidate architectural patterns that have been proposed in the recent literature for enabling autonomy capabilities by integrating AI and ML. A recommendation is made for the generation of a property-driven architectural pattern catalogue.

Architecture patterns↗

Architecting Safer Autonomous Aviation Systems

The aviation literature gives relatively little guidance to practitioners about the specifics of architecting systems for safety, particularly the impact of architecture on allocating safety requirements, or the relative ease of system assurance resulting from system or subsystem level architectural choices. As an exemplar, this paper considers common architectural patterns used within traditional aviation systems and explores their safety and safety assurance implications when applied in the context of integrating artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) based functionality. Considering safety as an architectural property, we discuss both the allocation of safety requirements and the architectural trade-offs involved early in the design lifecycle. This approach could be extended to other assured properties, similar to safety, such as security. We conclude with a discussion of the safety considerations that emerge in the context of candidate architectural patterns that have been proposed in the recent literature for enabling autonomy capabilities by integrating AI and ML. A recommendation is made for the generation of a property-driven architectural pattern catalogue.

Architecture patterns↗

Navigation Ground Data System Engineering for the Cassini/Huygens Mission

The launch of the Cassini/Huygens mission on October 15, 1997, began a seven year journey across the solar system that culminated in the entry of the spacecraft into Saturnian orbit on June 30, 2004. Cassini/Huygens Spacecraft Navigation is the result of a complex interplay between several teams within the Cassini Project, performed on the Ground Data System. The work of Spacecraft Navigation involves rigorous requirements for accuracy and completeness carried out often under uncompromising critical time pressures. To support the Navigation function, a fault-tolerant, high-reliability/high-availability computational environment was necessary to support data processing. Configuration Management (CM) was integrated with fault tolerant design and security engineering, according to the cornerstone principles of Confidentiality, Integrity, and Availability. Integrated with this approach are security benchmarks and validation to meet strict confidence levels. In addition, similar approaches to CM were applied in consideration of the staffing and training of the system administration team supporting this effort. As a result, the current configuration of this computational environment incorporates a secure, modular system, that provides for almost no downtime during tour operations.

Beswick, R. M.↗

NPSS on NASA's IPG: Using CORBA and Globus to Coordinate Multidisciplinary Aeroscience Applications

Within NASA's High Performance Computing and Communication (HPCC) program, the NASA Glenn Research Center is developing an environment for the analysis/design of aircraft engines called the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS). The vision for NPSS is to create a "numerical test cell" enabling full engine simulations overnight on cost-effective computing platforms. To this end, NPSS integrates multiple disciplines such as aerodynamics, structures, and heat transfer and supports "numerical zooming" between O-dimensional to 1-, 2-, and 3-dimensional component engine codes. In order to facilitate the timely and cost-effective capture of complex physical processes, NPSS uses object-oriented technologies such as C++ objects to encapsulate individual engine components and CORBA ORBs for object communication and deployment across heterogeneous computing platforms. Recently, the HPCC program has initiated a concept called the Information Power Grid (IPG), a virtual computing environment that integrates computers and other resources at different sites. IPG implements a range of Grid services such as resource discovery, scheduling, security, instrumentation, and data access, many of which are provided by the Globus toolkit. IPG facilities have the potential to benefit NPSS considerably. For example, NPSS should in principle be able to use Grid services to discover dynamically and then co-schedule the resources required for a particular engine simulation, rather than relying on manual placement of ORBs as at present. Grid services can also be used to initiate simulation components on parallel computers (MPPs) and to address inter-site security issues that currently hinder the coupling of components across multiple sites. These considerations led NASA Glenn and Globus project personnel to formulate a collaborative project designed to evaluate whether and how benefits such as those just listed can be achieved in practice. This project involves firstly development of the basic techniques required to achieve co-existence of commodity object technologies and Grid technologies; and secondly the evaluation of these techniques in the context of NPSS-oriented challenge problems. The work on basic techniques seeks to understand how "commodity" technologies (CORBA, DCOM, Excel, etc.) can be used in concert with specialized "Grid" technologies (for security, MPP scheduling, etc.). In principle, this coordinated use should be straightforward because of the Globus and IPG philosophy of providing low-level Grid mechanisms that can be used to implement a wide variety of application-level programming models. (Globus technologies have previously been used to implement Grid-enabled message-passing libraries, collaborative environments, and parameter study tools, among others.) Results obtained to date are encouraging: we have successfully demonstrated a CORBA to Globus resource manager gateway that allows the use of CORBA RPCs to control submission and execution of programs on workstations and MPPs; a gateway from the CORBA Trader service to the Grid information service; and a preliminary integration of CORBA and Grid security mechanisms. The two challenge problems that we consider are the following: 1) Desktop-controlled parameter study. Here, an Excel spreadsheet is used to define and control a CFD parameter study, via a CORBA interface to a high throughput broker that runs individual cases on different IPG resources. 2) Aviation safety. Here, about 100 near real time jobs running NPSS need to be submitted, run and data returned in near real time. Evaluation will address such issues as time to port, execution time, potential scalability of simulation, and reliability of resources. The full paper will present the following information: 1. A detailed analysis of the requirements that NPSS applications place on IPG. 2. A description of the techniques used to meet these requirements via the coordinated use of CORBA and Globus. 3. A description of results obtained to date in the first two challenge problems.

Lopez, Isaac↗

Extraterrestrial organic matter: a review

We review the nature of the widespread organic material present in the Milky Way Galaxy and in the Solar System. Attention is given to the links between these environments and between primitive Solar System objects and the early Earth, indicating the preservation of organic material as an interstellar cloud collapsed to form the Solar System and as the Earth accreted such material from asteroids, comets and interplanetary dust particles. In the interstellar medium of the Milky Way Galaxy more than 100 molecular species, the bulk of them organic, have been securely identified, primarily through spectroscopy at the highest radio frequencies. There is considerable evidence for significantly heavier organic molecules, particularly polycyclic aromatics, although precise identification of individual species has not yet been obtained. The so-called diffuse interstellar bands are probably important in this context. The low temperature kinetics in interstellar clouds leads to very large isotopic fractionation, particularly for hydrogen, and this signature is present in organic components preserved in carbonaceous chondritic meteorites. Outer belt asteroids are the probable parent bodies of the carbonaceous chondrites, which may contain as much as 5% organic material, including a rich variety of amino acids, purines, pyrimidines, and other species of potential prebiotic interest. Richer in volatiles and hence less thermally processed are the comets, whose organic matter is abundant and poorly characterized. Cometary volatiles, observed after sublimation into the coma, include many species also present in the interstellar medium. There is evidence that most of the Earth's volatiles may have been supplied by a 'late' bombardment of comets and carbonaceous meteorites, scattered into the inner Solar System following the formation of the giant planets. How much in the way of intact organic molecules of potential prebiotic interest survived delivery to the Earth has become an increasingly debated topic over the last several years. The principal source for such intact organics was probably accretion of interplanetary dust particles of cometary origin.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

Three Orbital Burns to Molniya Orbit via Shuttle Centaur G Upper Stage

An unclassified analytical trajectory design, performance, and mission study was done for the 1982-86 joint NASA-USAF Shuttle/Centaur G upper stage development program to send performance-demanding payloads to high orbits such as Molniya using an unconventional orbit transfer. This optimized three orbital burn transfer to Molniya orbit was compared to the then-baselined two burn transfer. The results of the three dimensional trajectory optimization performed include powered phase steering data and coast phase orbital element data. Time derivatives of the orbital elements as functions of thrust components were evaluated and used to explain the optimization's solution. Vehicle performance as a function of parking orbit inclination was given. Performance and orbital element data was provided for launch windows as functions of launch time. Ground track data was given for all burns and coasts including variation within the launch window. It was found that a Centaur with fully loaded propellant tanks could be flown from a 37deg inclination low Earth parking orbit and achieve Molniya orbit with comparable performance to the baselined transfer which started from a 57deg inclined orbit: 9,545 lb vs. 9,552 lb of separated spacecraft weight respectively. There was a significant reduction in the need for propellant launch time reserve for a one hour window: only 78 lb for the three burn transfer vs. 320 lb for the two burn transfer. Conversely, this also meant that longer launch windows over more orbital revolutions could be done for the same amount of propellant reserve. There was no practical difference in ground tracking station or airborne assets needed to secure telemetric data, even though the geometric locations of the burns varied considerably. There was a significant adverse increase in total mission elapsed time for the three vs. two burn transfer (12 vs. 11/4 hrs), but could be accommodated by modest modifications to Centaur systems. Future applications were discussed. The three burn transfer was found to be a viable, arguably preferable, alternative to the two burn transfer.

Orbital trajectory design↗

Three Orbital Burns to Molniya Orbit Via Shuttle_Centaur G Upper Stage

An unclassified analytical trajectory design, performance, and mission study was done for the 1982 to 1986 joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-United States Air Force (USAF) Shuttle/Centaur G upper stage development program to send performance-demanding payloads to high orbits such as Molniya using an unconventional orbit transfer. This optimized three orbital burn transfer to Molniya orbit was compared to the then-baselined two burn transfer. The results of the three dimensional trajectory optimization performed include powered phase steering data and coast phase orbital element data. Time derivatives of the orbital elements as functions of thrust components were evaluated and used to explain the optimization's solution. Vehicle performance as a function of parking orbit inclination was given. Performance and orbital element data was provided for launch windows as functions of launch time. Ground track data was given for all burns and coasts including variation within the launch window. It was found that a Centaur with fully loaded propellant tanks could be flown from a 37 deg inclination low Earth parking orbit and achieve Molniya orbit with comparable performance to the baselined transfer which started from a 57 deg inclined orbit: 9,545 versus 9,552 lb of separated spacecraft weight, respectively. There was a significant reduction in the need for propellant launch time reserve for a 1 hr window: only 78 lb for the three burn transfer versus 320 lb for the two burn transfer. Conversely, this also meant that longer launch windows over more orbital revolutions could be done for the same amount of propellant reserve. There was no practical difference in ground tracking station or airborne assets needed to secure telemetric data, even though the geometric locations of the burns varied considerably. There was a significant adverse increase in total mission elapsed time for the three versus two burn transfer (12 vs. 1-1/4 hr), but could be accommodated by modest modifications to Centaur systems. Future applications were discussed. The three burn transfer was found to be a viable, arguably preferable, alternative to the two burn transfer.

Orbital trajectory design↗

Compound Effects of Climate Change on Future Transboundary Water Issues in the Middle East

The Middle East is one of the world’s most vulnerable areas to climate change, which has exacerbated environmental, agricultural, water conflict, and public health issues in the region. Here we analyze the latest climate model projections of precipitation and temperature for the very high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5,to detect potential future changes in this region. A baseline period (1981-2010) is compared with the middle(2040-2069) and end (2070-2099) of the 21stcentury. The results, representing the worst-case scenario, identify the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters as the hotspot of future compounding effects of climate change in the Middle East. Those effects result from the coincidence of elevated temperature, reduced precipitation, and enhanced interannual variability of precipitation. The hotspot overlays the location of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (in Turkish, GAP) irrigation initiative. In this climate context, risks to GAP viability and downstream water security, and associated potential for water-related conflicts and migration are considerable and demand a reconsideration of the risk-benefit assessment of GAP. This need has become more urgent after the recent widespread and deadly climate-related conflicts and wildfires in summer 2021 across the Middle East that further underlined vulnerability of the region to climate extremes.

Tigris-Euphrates headwater↗