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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

The Black Mountain asperity - Seismic hazard of the southern San Francisco Peninsula, California

A slip deficit region running 75 km from Black Mountain south of Palo Alto to San Juan Battista is studied to assess earthquake hazard. If this region were ruptured in its entirety, the event would produce a M-sub-s = 6.9 earthquake. The conditional probability of this rupturing in the near future is the highest of any section of the San Andreas fault except Parkfield. This earthquake would rupture 30 km farther northwest and be about 3 times larger than that previously proposed by others (Lindh, 1983, and Sykes and Nishenko, 1984). This constitutes a greater risk to the southern San Francisco Peninsula than previously expected.

Scholz, C. H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ambient field seismology in critical zone hydrological sciences

Passive ambient noise monitoring is an emerging tool in environmental seismology, leveraging the ambient seismic field to assess temporal variations in shallow subsurface properties. This review focuses on the potential and challenges of using scattered coda waves from noise correlation functions to monitor critical zone dynamics. The sensitivity of seismic velocities to various environmental factors, including precipitation, snowmelt, atmospheric pressure, and groundwater fluctuations, underscores the method’s versatility. While coda waves excel in detecting subtle changes due to their scattered nature, ballistic waves provide higher spatial resolution, albeit with challenges in source stability. Advances in seismic sensing, including distributed acoustic sensing and low-cost geophone networks, have enabled high-resolution monitoring of hydrological processes, subsurface deformation, and seismic hazards. Integrating seismic data with hydrological models provides insights into water storage, pore pressure changes, and soil moisture dynamics. However, limitations in spatial resolution, calibration with ground truth data, and coupled effects between environmental factors remain key challenges. This review emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in refining methodologies, enhancing sensor deployments, and addressing data gaps. Passive seismic monitoring offers opportunities to understand critical zone processes and their broader impacts on seismic hazards and environmental sustainability.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing Stress Orientations in Southern Kansas

We repot that Induced seismicity predominantly occurs along faults that are optimally oriented to the local principal compressive stress direction, and the characterization of these stress orientations is an important component of understanding seismic hazards. The seismicity rate in southern Kansas rapidly increased in 2013 primarily due to the disposal of large volumes of wastewater into the Arbuckle Group. Previously, local stress orientations in this area were poorly constrained, which limited our understanding of the complex faulting and diverse earthquake mechanisms in this region. We use shear-wave splitting and focal mechanism inversion techniques to create multiple, independent estimates of maximum horizontal stress directions (S Hmax ) and their spatial variation across the study area. We then create an integrated model of stress orientations for southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma using our local results in conjunction with previous, regional stress orientation estimates. We find that S Hmax in both southern Kansas and central Oklahoma exhibits an east-northeast (~N78°E) orientation, and these regions bound a northeast (~N59°E) rotation within a ~20km area in northern Oklahoma near the Nemaha ridge.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Satellite Detection of the Convection Generated Stresses in Earth

We review research developments on satellite detection of the convection generated stresses in the Earth for seismic hazard assessment and Earth resource survey. Particular emphasis is laid upon recent progress and results of stress calculations from which the origin and evolution of the tectonic features on Earth's surface can be scientifically addressed. An important aspect of the recent research development in tectonic stresses relative to earthquakes is the implications for earthquake forecasting and prediction. We have demonstrated that earthquakes occur on the ring of fire around the Pacific in response to the tectonic stresses induced by mantle convection. We propose a systematic global assessment of the seismic hazard based on variations of tectonic stresses in the Earth as observed by satellites. This space geodynamic approach for assessing the seismic hazard is unique in that it can pinpoint the triggering stresses for large earthquakes without ambiguities of geological structures, fault geometries, and other tectonic properties. Also, it is distinct from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment models in the literature, which are based only on extrapolations of available earthquake data.

Liu, Han-Shou↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic isolation: A pathway to standardized advanced nuclear reactors

Standardizing advanced nuclear reactors is a pathway to substantially reducing their overnight capital cost and achieving parity with other power sources, including renewables and fossil fuels. The seismic load case has thwarted standardization of nuclear power plants because site-specific seismic hazard and local near-surface geology has triggered soil-structure-interaction analysis, design, equipment qualification, regulatory review, and licensing, ensuring that each build is different. To achieve standardized or site-independent certified advanced reactor designs, the impact of the seismic load case on the engineering and construction cost and time must be substantially mitigated. Seismic isolation is a mature technology that has been used for more than 30 years in non-nuclear sectors to substantially reduce earthquake demands in buildings and other infrastructure. In this paper, seismic isolation is used to enable standardization of advanced reactor designs, aimed at the complete re-use of a site-independent, certified design and repeated procurement of safety-class equipment. A pathway to standardized designs using seismic isolation is demonstrated for two fundamentally different advanced reactors: a molten salt reactor and a high temperature gas reactor. Each reactor building is equipped with three specialized pieces of safety-class equipment, namely, a reactor vessel, a steam generator, and a control rod drive mechanism housing that is attached to the reactor head. Analysis is performed per ASCE and ASME standards to design the buildings and the equipment for two base conditions: conventional (fixed base) and base isolated. The impact of the seismic load case is characterized for the reinforced concrete walls in the buildings and for the equipment, measured using vessel wall thickness and horizontal accelerations. Here the analysis results show that the fixed-base buildings, designed for a site of low seismic hazard (peak ground acceleration, PGA = 0.15 g) could be constructed at a site of much greater seismic hazard (PGA = 0.7 g) if seismic base isolation is employed. Importantly, the scope of the site-specific analysis, design, and qualification would be limited to the seismic isolators and the isolated substructure, drastically reducing plant-specific engineering, review, and licensing, and time to construction start. Regulatory challenges and opportunities with standardized reactor designs are identified.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

ORION: Operational FoRecastIng Of INduced Seismicity

The Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity toolkit “ORION” (ORION) is an open-source, observation-based ensemble forecasting toolkit which is geared towards helping operators understand the seismic hazard (i.e., probabilistic assessment of the magnitude and frequency of induced seismic events) at a site. ORION analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection and suggests possible mitigation strategies to employ if an earthquake that exceeds certain threshold is observed. Through its ensemble modeling approach, ORION leverages the benefits of statistical-, physics-, and machine learning-based forecasting methodologies, while reducing the impact of each model’s respective limitations. The ORION toolkit consists of an easy-to-use GUI interface that affords a user as much or as little interaction as desired. Advanced capabilities allow the user to upload local, high-precision earthquake catalogs, projected injection profiles and/or spatiotemporal estimates of pressure/stress, and to tune various model parameters. ORION will then provide a spatial and temporal ensemble forecast of seismicity defined as the probability of exceedance of a given earthquake magnitude over a forecast period. Additionally, ORION will provide probability distribution of the statistically derived maximum possible earthquake magnitude that may be expected. Finally, ORION will provide suggested operational management strategies (e.g. reduce injection volumes at specific wells) based on the level of hazard.

NRAP,NRAP Tools,ORION,Operational Forcasting of In↗
DOE OSTI2022

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity

Operational Forecasting of Induced Seismicity (ORION) is an open-source toolkit developed as part of the US Department of Energy SMART and NRAP programs. ORION is designed to help both expert and non-expert users understand the seismic hazard at a site. This tool analyzes how the seismic hazard evolves during injection of fluid, and can be used to identify potential mitigation strategies for observed or forecasted seismic activity. ORION is built using Python, and has an optional GUI where users can easily configure model parameters, evaluate temporal and spatial forecasts, and inspect key data (seismicity, fluid injection, pressure models, etc.).

Kroll, Kayla↗
NASA NTRS2023

Seismic Assessment of a Long-Term Lunar Habitat

The establishment of secure earth-independent long-term lunar habitats has been envisioned by numerous government agencies and private companies. Recent advancements in assessing seismic hazards caused by shallow moonquakes have highlighted the importance of incorporating this phenomenon into the design of robust and resilient lunar structures. However, further research is required to explore lunar habitat design that considers seismic loads. This paper proposes assessing the structural response of a lunar habitat made of sulfur concrete covered with a regolith layer. The numerical model of the structure is subjected to gravitational, internal pressure and seismic loads. The seismic analysis of the structure is carried out using spectral and nonlinear time history methods. Conditional mean spectra for shallow moonquakes with return periods of 75, 475, 970 and 2475 years are used in the seismic analysis. The records used for the temporal analyses were ground motions that agree with a preliminary seismic hazard on the Moon. The results of temporal analyses reveal that shallow moonquakes with return periods greater than 475 years can lead to the loss of the global stability of the structure. Consequently, the findings imply that seismic loads have the potential to impose unacceptable demands on lunar structures constructed from in-situ materials like sulfur concrete. Hence, it is imperative to incorporate seismic considerations in the design process for developing resilient and long-term lunar habitats.

Lunar habitat↗
DOE OSTI2023

Physics-based Induced Earthquake Forecasting: Process Understanding, and Hazards Mitigation

Disposal of saltwater co-produced with oil and gas is linked to elevated seismicity in the Central and Midwest US. There is a concern that these events may lead to widespread damage and an overall increase in seismicity. Thus an improved understanding of the spatially and temporally variable deformation and stress field associated with fluid injection operation is critically necessary for evaluating time-varying seismic hazards. Despite the improvements in seismic monitoring capacity and the resulting decrease in the magnitude detection threshold, estimates of induced earthquake probability remain elusive due to insufficient models incapable of accounting for the complex physics governing the process of induced seismicity. The proposed research effort will comprehensively analyze, integrate, and interpret geodetic, injection, and seismic data in the vicinity of the injection sites in Oklahoma to resolve the 4-dimensional distribution of pore pressure and stress in the shallow crust. This project, in particular, is focused on exploring the statistical relation between injection operation and increased earthquake hazard. The amplitude of and the extent to which pore pressure changes are determined by some factors, in particular, the hydrogeological properties of the rocks, such as diffusivity. Thus the available deformation data will be used to constrain hydrogeological properties of the medium, to accurately resolve the evolution of crustal stresses due to fluid injection. Having the time-varying models of stress changes, a statistical framework will be implemented to estimate the time-dependent probability of large earthquakes on the nearby fault systems. These data and models help to improve seismic hazard estimates and aid in constructing operational-induced earthquake forecast models. This information can also be integrated into the updated U.S. National Seismic Hazard Map, which local communities and authorities use in their earthquake risk estimates and mitigation efforts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recommended Practices for Managing Induced Seismicity Risk Associated with Geologic Carbon Storage

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method to help reduce or eliminate atmospheric CO 2 emissions. The sequestered CO 2 is originally captured from the atmosphere or from a stationary industrial source and subsequently injected into a deep subsurface porous rock formation. To facilitate the successful deployment of field scale carbon storage projects, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing tools and protocols for defensible, science-based frameworks to quantify and mitigate risks associated with the long-term storage of CO 2 . This protocol specifically addresses the risk of induced seismicity due to injection in a geologic carbon storage (GCS) site. This integrated and risk-based protocol is a product of the U.S. DOE Fossil Energy’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), a multi-year collaborative research effort of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). These recommended practices describe a set of 7 steps to evaluate, manage, communicate, and mitigate the risk of induced seismicity at GCS sites. The base methodology of the recommended practices follows a framework similar to the Protocol for Addressing Induced Seismicity Associated with Enhanced Geothermal Systems (Majer et al., 2012), developed for the Geothermal Technology Office of the U.S. DOE. These recommended practices present a framework to systematically assess the induced seismicity risk and quantify the associated uncertainties. These recommendations are based on current research and are sufficiently general to allow for modification and application to a variety of different types of sites. The substance of the recommended practices contained herein includes both technical and non-technical issues, and covers all operational stages of the GCS project lifecycle. They start at the preliminary risk assessment phase, continue through site assessment and characterization, include best practice communication and seismic monitoring plan methodologies, discuss the evaluation and mitigation of seismic hazard and risk, and closes with an exploration of operational management plans, which conclude when the induced seismicity risk abates back to background level. The focus of these recommendations is on actively managing the risks associated with induced seismicity by developing an actionable risk management plan that starts at the project proposal stage and continues through site closure through an iterative assessment and improvement process. The audience of this document is expected to include all interested stakeholders (e.g., operators, project developers, regulators, and the general public) and is expressly written to be accessible to this broad range of partners. This document is intended to disseminate knowledge gained through recent advances in the science of induced seismicity hazard and risk assessments, to provide updates based on recent experience gained by similar corollary injection-induced seismicity cases, and most importantly to establish a uniform framework to carry out a successful induced seismicity risk management plan for carbon storage projects in the future. These recommendations do not directly address any domestic or international regulations or standards. A complementary NRAP report makes recommendations for the assessment and management of environmental subsurface risks associated with unwanted fluid migration at GCS sites (Thomas et al., 2021) and should be referred to in order to address those additional GCS site risks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗