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This presentation on assessing the impact of sensitivity/uncertainty selection criteria on computational bias prediction starts with providing a motivation and scope. This presentation then gives the selection criteria description with the method and application. This presentation finishes with results, conclusions, and future work.
Abstract not provided.
Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are necessary to determine where to allocate resources for improved predictions in support of our nation's nuclear safety mission. Yet, sensitivity/uncertainty analyses are not commonly performed on complex combustion models because the calculations are time consuming, CPU intensive, nontrivial exercises that can lead to deceptive results. To illustrate these ideas, a variety of sensitivity/uncertainty analyses were used to determine the uncertainty associated with thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam exposed to high radiative flux boundary conditions. The polyurethane used in this study is a rigid closed-cell foam used as an encapsulant. Related polyurethane binders such as Estane are used in many energetic materials of interest to the JANNAF community. The complex, finite element foam decomposition model used in this study has 25 input parameters that include chemistry, polymer structure, and thermophysical properties. The response variable was selected as the steady-state decomposition front velocity calculated as the derivative of the decomposition front location versus time. An analytical mean value sensitivity/uncertainty (MV) analysis was used to determine the standard deviation by taking numerical derivatives of the response variable with respect to each of the 25 input parameters. Since the response variable is also a derivative, the standard deviation was essentially determined from a second derivative that was extremely sensitive to numerical noise. To minimize the numerical noise, 50-micrometer element dimensions and approximately 1-msec time steps were required to obtain stable uncertainty results. As an alternative method to determine the uncertainty and sensitivity in the decomposition front velocity, surrogate response surfaces were generated for use with a constrained Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. Two surrogate response surfaces were investigated: 1) a linear surrogate response surface (LIN) and 2) a quadratic response surface (QUAD). The LHS techniques do not require derivatives of the response variable and are subsequently relatively insensitive to numerical noise. To compare the LIN and QUAD methods to the MV method, a direct LHS analysis (DLHS) was performed using the full grid and timestep resolved finite element model. The surrogate response models (LIN and QUAD) are shown to give acceptable values of the mean and standard deviation when compared to the fully converged DLHS model.
This presentation discusses the programming languages TSUNAMI and TSAR. It also provides a review of experimental designs using sensitivity analysis in regard to 7uPCX fuel design, fission product experiment analysis, MIRTE, and temperature dependent experiments at the Sandia Pulsed Reactor Facility (SPRF).
Sensitivity coefficients predict the expected change in a response ($\kappa$) due to a change in some input parameter ($\Sigma$). These responses can be k eff (or ratios of reaction rates). These input parameters are typically nuclear data. The coefficients are dimensionless ratios. What would happen to the system k eff if some piece of data were changed by some amount? The coefficient is calculated without making the change.
This report documents results obtained for revisions made to cases involving Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU), Intermediate Enriched Uranium (IEU), a mixture of Pu and Uranium (MIX), as well as Pu cases. A previous summary of revisions for HEU an Pu cases was reported and additional investigations into four cases originally presented therein uncovered further revisions which led to better agreement with other transport codes, those cases are updated in this report. The summary of all cases reported in Reference 2 is updated in this report. In addition, a previous summary of revisions for LEU and MIX was reported, a summary of those revisions in reproduced in this report for a comprehensive summary of changes to benchmarks beginning in fiscal year 2020 to current date. The report focuses on the changes made to LANL benchmarks modeled with MCNP6 using ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data that appeared to have discrepant results when compared with results of other codes. Feedback was used to pinpoint review of benchmark input files and to revise them when necessary. This report documents the results of review and revision of specific benchmarks highlighted as possibly discrepant in the comparison study. In addition, there is an effort tied to this work involving collaboration between LANL XCP and NCS Divisions in the development of a shared review/revision procedure and use of a new benchmark repository. LANL has a benchmark library of critical experiments from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook modeled for use with MCNP. This collection is now over 1100 benchmarks, referred to as the Whisper-1.1 library because it is used with the sensitivity/uncertainty package, Whisper, which supports nuclear criticality safety validation and is released with MCNP6.2. The collection, originally created several decades ago, is a combination of smaller collections, which has been revised and expanded, by various groups at LANL over the years. The original authors are no longer at the laboratory and little formal documentation of review and revision of these benchmarks exists today. A branch of the benchmark collection was already the subject of a formal review undertaken by the LANL NCS Division and expanded to include XCP Division.