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DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Stopping Ages for Colorectal Cancer Screening

Importance Prior studies have shown that the benefits, harms, and costs of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening at older ages are associated with a patient’s sex, health, and screening history. However, these studies were hypothetical exercises and not directly informed by data on CRC risk. Objective To identify the optimal stopping ages for CRC screening by sex, comorbidity, and screening history from a cost-effectiveness perspective. Design, Setting, and Participants This economic evaluation first validated the MISCAN-Colon (Microsimulation Screening Analysis–Colon) model against community-based CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2 subcohorts of the PRECISE (Optimizing Colorectal Cancer Screening Precision and Outcomes in Community-Based Populations) cohort. Subsequently, different CRC screening scenarios were simulated in older individuals. Cohorts of US adults aged 76 to 90 years varied by sex and comorbidity status (none, low, moderate, or severe). Statistical and sensitivity analyses were performed from March 2023 to May 2024. Exposures CRC screening histories including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) or colonoscopy, such as a negative colonoscopy result from 10, 15, 20, 25, or 30 years before the index age; 1 to 5 negative FIT results within 5 years of the index age, with different patterns of recency; or a combination of negative colonoscopy and negative FIT results. Main Outcomes and Measures The main outcomes included estimated lifetime clinical outcomes, incremental costs, and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYG) associated with 1 additional FIT or colonoscopy. Optimal stopping age for screening, defined as the oldest age for which the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was still below the willingness-to-pay threshold of $\$$100 000 per QALYG, was evaluated. Results The first of the 2 PRECISE subcohorts used in validating the simulation model included 25 974 adults (15 060 females [58.0%]; 54.7% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index date. The second subcohort consisted of 118 269 adults (67 058 females [56.7%]; 90.5% aged 76 to 80 years) with a negative FIT result 1 year before the index date. Older age, male sex, higher comorbidity levels, and recent CRC screenings were associated with reduced incremental benefit and cost-effectiveness of additional screening. For the reference cohort of 76-year-old females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, 1 additional colonoscopy cost $\$$38 226 per QALYG. For cohorts with otherwise equivalent characteristics, associated costs increased to $\$$1 689 945 per QALYG for females at age 90 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy results 10 years before the index age, $\$$51 604 per QALYG for males at age 76 years without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age, and $\$$108 480 per QALYG for females at age 76 years with severe comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 10 years before the index age and decreased to $\$$16 870 per QALYG for females without comorbidities and a negative colonoscopy result 30 years before the index age. The optimal stopping ages across different cohorts ranged from younger than 76 to 86 years for colonoscopy and younger than 76 to 88 years for FIT. Conclusions and Relevance In this economic evaluation, age, sex, screening history, comorbidity, and future screening modality were associated with the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and optimal stopping age for CRC screening. These results can inform guideline development and patient-directed informed decision-making.

Harlass, Matthias [Erasmus Erasmus University Medi↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Chromosome-Scale Genome Assembly of a Helicoverpa zea Strain Resistant to Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac Insecticidal Protein

Helicoverpa zea (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) is an insect pest of major cultivated crops in North and South America. The species has adapted to different host plants and developed resistance to several insecticidal agents, including Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) insecticidal proteins in transgenic cotton and maize. Helicoverpa zea populations persist year-round in tropical and subtropical regions, but seasonal migrations into temperate zones increase the geographic range of associated crop damage. To better understand the genetic basis of these physiological and ecological characteristics, we generated a high-quality chromosome-level assembly for a single H. zea male from Bt-resistant strain, HzStark_Cry1AcR. Hi-C data were used to scaffold an initial 375.2 Mb contig assembly into 30 autosomes and the Z sex chromosome (scaffold N50 = 12.8 Mb and L50 = 14). The scaffolded assembly was error-corrected with a novel pipeline, polishCLR. The mitochondrial genome was assembled through an improved pipeline and annotated. Assessment of this genome assembly indicated 98.8% of the Lepidopteran Benchmark Universal Single-Copy Ortholog set were complete (98.5% as complete single copy). Repetitive elements comprised approximately 29.5% of the assembly with the plurality (11.2%) classified as retroelements. This chromosome-scale reference assembly for H. zea, ilHelZeax1.1, will facilitate future research to evaluate and enhance sustainable crop production practices.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Individuals with Alzheimer's disease and low tau burden: Characteristics and implications

Abnormal amyloid-beta (Aβ) and tau deposition define Alzheimer's Disease (AD), but non-elevated tau is relatively frequent in patients on the AD pathway. We examined characteristics and regional patterns of 397 Aβ+ unimpaired and impaired individuals with low tau (A+T-) in relation to their higher tau counterparts (A+T+). Seventy-one percent of Aβ+ unimpaired and 42% of impaired Aβ+ individuals were categorized as A+T- based on global tau. In impaired individuals only, A+T- status was associated with older age, male sex, and greater cardiovascular risk. α-synuclein was linked to poorer cognition, particularly when tau was low. Tau burden was most frequently elevated in a common set of temporal regions regardless of T+/T- status. Low tau is relatively common in patients on the AD pathway and is linked to comorbidities that contribute to impairment. These findings have implications for the selection of individuals for Aβ- and tau-modifying therapies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Prevalence of Self-Reported Bothersome Tinnitus in U.S. Army Soldiers From January 1, 2015, Through September 30, 2019

Purpose: Tinnitus is a symptom of auditory dysfunction or injury and can be a precursor to permanent hearing loss. Tinnitus can interfere with communication, sleep, concentration, and mood; when this occurs, it is referred to as bothersome tinnitus. Annual hearing surveillance in the U.S. Army includes screening for bothersome tinnitus. Estimating the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus can facilitate prioritization of prevention and education efforts. The objective of this study was to examine Army hearing conservation data to estimate the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus as a function of age, hearing, sex, service component, and pay grade. Method: The study employed a cross-sectional, retrospective design. Records from 1,485,059 U.S. Army Soldiers retrieved from the Defense Occupational and Environmental Health Readiness System–Hearing Conservation were analyzed. Descriptive statistics and multinomial logistic regression analysis were used to estimate the prevalence of bothersome tinnitus and its associations with Soldiers' demographic characteristics. Results: The estimated prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was 17.1% between January 1, 2015, and September 30, 2019; 13.6% of the Soldiers reported “bothered a little” and 3.5% reported “bothered a lot.” Proportionally, the prevalence of self-reported bothersome tinnitus was higher for males, older Soldiers, and Reserve Component Soldiers. For every 1-year increase in age, the odds of self-reporting “bothered a little” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all tinnitus” would be expected to increase by 2.2% (2.1%, 2.3%), and the odds of self-reporting “bothered a lot” tinnitus relative to “bothered not at all” tinnitus would be expected to increase by 3.6% (3.5%, 3.7%). Conclusions: The self-reported prevalence of bothersome tinnitus in the U.S. Army (17.1%) is substantially higher than that of the general population, where prevalence of bothersome tinnitus is estimated at 6.6%. Examination of bothersome tinnitus among Soldiers is an important step toward optimizing prevention, education, and intervention efforts.

Audiology & Speech-Language Pathology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Oxidative stress is a shared characteristic of ME/CFS and Long COVID

Over 65 million individuals worldwide are estimated to have Long COVID (LC), a complex multisystemic condition marked by fatigue, post-exertional malaise, and other symptoms resembling myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). With no clinically approved treatments or reliable diagnostic markers, there is an urgent need to define the molecular underpinnings of these conditions. By studying bioenergetic characteristics of peripheral blood lymphocytes in 25 healthy controls, 27 ME/CFS, and 20 LC donors, we find both ME/CFS and LC donors exhibit signs of elevated oxidative stress, especially in the memory subset. Using a combination of flow cytometry, RNA-seq, mass spectrometry, and systems chemistry analysis, we observed aberrations in reactive oxygen species (ROS) clearance pathways including elevated glutathione levels, decreases in mitochondrial superoxide dismutase protein levels, and glutathione peroxidase 4–mediated lipid oxidative damage. Strikingly, these redox pathways changes show sex-specific trends. While ME/CFS females exhibit higher total ROS and mitochondrial calcium levels, males have normal ROS levels, with pronounced mitochondrial lipid oxidative damage. In females, these higher ROS levels correlate with T cell hyperproliferation, consistent with the known role of elevated ROS in initiating proliferation. This hyperproliferation can be attenuated by metformin, suggesting this Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved drug as a possible treatment, as also suggested by a recent clinical study of LC patients. Moreover, these results suggest a shared mechanistic basis for the systemic phenotypes of ME/CFS and LC, which can be detected by quantitative blood cell measurements, and that effective, patient-tailored drugs might be discovered using standard lymphocyte stimulation assays.

ME/CFS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Testing for the Genomic Footprint of Conflict Between Life Stages in an Angiosperm and Moss Species

Abstract The maintenance of genetic variation by balancing selection is of considerable interest to evolutionary biologists. An important but understudied potential driver of balancing selection is antagonistic pleiotropy between diploid and haploid stages of the plant life cycle. Despite sharing a common genome, sporophytes (2n) and gametophytes (n) may undergo differential or even opposing selection. Theoretical work suggests antagonistic pleiotropy between life stages can generate balancing selection and maintain genetic variation. Despite the potential for far-reaching consequences of gametophytic selection, empirical tests of its pleiotropic effects (neutral, synergistic, or antagonistic) on sporophytes are generally lacking. Here, we examined the population genomic signals of selection across life stages in the angiosperm Rumex hastatulus and the moss Ceratodon purpureus. We compared gene expression between life stages and sexes, combined with neutral diversity statistics and the analysis of the distribution of fitness effects. In contrast to what would be predicted under balancing selection due to antagonistic pleiotropy, we found that unbiased genes between life stages were under stronger purifying selection, likely explained by a predominance of synergistic pleiotropy between life stages and strong purifying selection on broadly expressed genes. In addition, we found that 30% of candidate genes under balancing selection in R. hastatulus were located within inversion polymorphisms. Our findings provide novel insights into the genome-wide characteristics and consequences of plant gametophytic selection.

Evolutionary Biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the role of adipose tissue in mobility and aging: design and methods of the Adipose Tissue ancillary to the Study of Muscle, Mobility, and Aging (SOMMA-AT)

Background Age-related changes in adipose tissue affect chronic medical diseases and mobility disability but mechanism remains poorly understood. The goal of this study is to define methods for phenotyping unique characteristics of adipose tissue from older adults. Methods Older adults enrolled in study of muscle, mobility, and aging selected for the adipose tissue ancillary (SOMMA-AT; N = 210, 52.38% women, 76.12 ± 4.37 years) were assessed for regional adiposity by whole-body magnetic resonance (AMRA) and underwent a needle-aspiration biopsy of abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT). ASAT biopsies were flash frozen, fixed, or processed for downstream applications and deposited at the biorepository. Biopsy yields, qualitative features, adipocyte sizes, and concentration of adipokines secreted in ASAT explant conditioned media were measured. Inter-measure Spearman correlations were determined. Results Regional, but not total, adiposity differed by sex: women had greater ASAT mass (8.20 ± 2.73 kg, p < .001) and biopsy yield (3.44 ± 1.81 g, p < .001) than men (ASAT = 5.95 ± 2.30 kg, biopsy = 2.30 ± 1.40 g). ASAT mass correlated with leptin (r = 0.54, p < .001) and not resistin (p = .248) and adiponectin (p = .353). Adipocyte area correlated with ASAT mass (r = 0.34, p < .001), BMI (r = 0.33, p < .001), adiponectin (r = −0.22, p = .005) and leptin (r = 0.18, p = .024) but not with resistin (p = .490). Conclusion In addition to the detailed ASAT biopsy processing in this report, we found that adipocyte area correlated with ASAT mass, and both measures related to some key adipokines in the explant conditioned media. In conclusion, these results, methods, and biological repositories underscore the potential of this unique cohort to impact the understanding of aging adipose biology on disease, disability, and other aging tissues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mercury and Radiocesium Accumulation and Associations With Sublethal Endpoints in the Florida Green Watersnake ( Nerodia floridana )

Mercury (Hg) and radiocesium ( 137 Cs) are well-known environmental contaminants with the potential to impact the health of humans and wildlife. Snakes have several characteristics conducive to studying environmental contamination but have rarely been included in the monitoring of polluted sites. We investigated the bioaccumulation of Hg and 137 Cs and associations with sublethal effects (standard metabolic rate [SMR] and hemoparasite infections) in Florida green watersnakes (Nerodia floridana). We captured 78 snakes from three former nuclear cooling reservoirs on the US Department of Energy's Savannah River Site in South Carolina (USA). For captured snakes, we (1) determined whole-body 137 Cs, (2) quantified total Hg (THg) using snake tail clips, (3) conducted hemoparasite counts, and (4) measured the SMR. We used multiple regression models to determine associations among snake body size, capture location, sex, tail THg, whole-body 137 Cs, Hepatozoon spp. prevalence and parasitemia, and SMR. Average whole-body 137 Cs (0.23 ± 0.08 Becquerels [Bq]/g; range: 0.00–1.02 Bq/g) was correlated with snake body size and differed significantly by capture site (Pond B: 0.67 ± 0.05 Bq/g; Par Pond: 0.10 ± 0.02 Bq/g; Pond 2: 0.03 ± 0.02 Bq/g). Tail THg (0.33 ± 0.03 mg/kg dry wt; range: 0.16–2.10 mg/kg) was significantly correlated with snake body size but did not differ by capture site. We found no clear relationship between SMR and contaminant burdens. However, models indicated that the prevalence of Hepatozoon spp. in snakes was inversely related to increasing whole-body 137 Cs burdens. Our results indicate the bioaccumulation of Hg and 137 Cs in N. floridana and further demonstrate the utility of aquatic snakes as bioindicators. Furthermore, our results also suggest a decrease in Hepatozoon spp. prevalence related to increased burdens of 137 Cs. Although the results are intriguing, further research is needed to understand the dynamics between 137 Cs and Hepatozoon spp. infections in semiaquatic snakes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

The 300 Marines: characterizing the US Marines with perfect scores on their physical and combat fitness tests

Few US Marines earn perfect 300 scores on both their Physical Fitness Test (PFT) and Combat Fitness Test (CFT). The number 300 invokes the legendary 300 Spartans that fought at the Battle of Thermopylae, which inspired high physical fitness capabilities for elite ground forces ever since. Purpose: Determine distinguishing characteristics of the “300 Marines” (perfect PFT and CFT scores) that may provide insights into the physical and physiological requirements associated with this capability. These tests have been refined over time to reflect physical capabilities associated with Marine Corps basic rifleman performance. Materials and methods: Data were analyzed from US Marines, including 497 women (age, 29 ± 7 years; height 1.63 ± 0.07 m; body mass, 67.4 ± 8.4 kg) and 1,224 men (30 ± 8 years; 1.77 ± 0.07 m; 86.1 ± 11.1 kg). Marines were grouped by whether they earned perfect 300 scores on both the PFT and CFT (300 Marines) or not. We analyzed group differences in individual fitness test events and body composition (dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry). Results: Only 2.5% (n = 43) of this sample earned perfect PFT and CFT scores (n = 21 women; n = 22 men). Compared to sex-matched peers, 300 Marines performed more pull-ups, with faster three-mile run, maneuver-under-fire, and movement-to-contact times (each p < 0.001); 300 Marines of both sexes had lower fat mass, body mass index, and percent body fat (each p < 0.001). The lower percent body fat was explained by greater lean mass (p = 0.041) but similar body mass (p = 0.085) in women, whereas men had similar lean mass (p = 0.618), but lower total body mass (p = 0.025). Conclusion: Marines earning perfect PFT and CFT scores are most distinguished from their peers by their maneuverability, suggesting speed and agility capabilities. While both sexes had considerably lower percent body fat than their peers, 300 Marine women were relatively more muscular while men were lighter.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Implanted satellite transmitters affect sea duck movement patterns at short and long timescales

Abstract Studies of the effects of transmitters on wildlife often focus on survival. However, sublethal behavioral changes resulting from radio-marking have the potential to affect inferences from telemetry data and may vary based on individual and environmental characteristics. We used a long-term, multi-species tracking study of sea ducks to assess behavioral patterns at multiple temporal scales following implantation of intracoelomic satellite transmitters. We applied state-space models to assess short-term behavioral patterns in 476 individuals with implanted satellite transmitters, as well as comparing breeding site attendance and migratory phenology across multiple years after capture. In the short term, our results suggest an increase in dispersive behavior immediately following capture and transmitter implantation; however, behavior returned to seasonally average patterns within ~5 days after release. Over multiple years, we found that breeding site attendance by both males and females was depressed during the first breeding season after radio-marking relative to subsequent years, with larger relative decreases in breeding site attendance among males than females. We also found that spring and breeding migrations occurred later in the first year after radio-marking than in subsequent years. Across all behavioral effects, the severity of behavioral change often varied by species, sex, age, and capture season. We conclude that, although individuals appear to adjust relatively quickly (i.e. within 1 week) to implanted satellite transmitters, changes in breeding phenology may occur over the longer term and should be considered when analyzing and reporting telemetry data.

Lamb, Juliet S.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Understanding Life History Diversity of a Wild Steelhead Population and Managing for Resiliency

Abstract Diversity in steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss (anadromous Rainbow Trout) is often characterized by varying time spent in freshwater and saltwater environments. However, ontogenetic shifts are not often highlighted as an important diversity characteristic in salmonids. Larger water bodies can play a key role in population stability by buffering limited resources in smaller tributary systems. Based on freshwater and saltwater ages of adult steelhead in Fish Creek, Idaho, there were 12 different life history trajectories observed. Juvenile abundance varied from 12,083 (SE = 1,225.7) to 62,463 (SE = 1,753.8), with ages ranging from young of the year (age 0) to 4 years. Adult abundance fluctuated from 17 (SE < 0.1) to 499 (SE = 67.1), and total age of adults varied from 3 to 7 years. Diversity was most evident in juvenile movement and rearing strategies. We observed four types of movement and rearing pathways in which juveniles either directly migrated to the ocean from Fish Creek or resided for up to three winters in main-stem river habitat in the Clearwater River basin prior to ocean migration. Most juveniles emigrated in the fall at age 2, and most ocean-emigrating smolts were age 3. Subsequently, most juveniles resided for at least one additional winter period before ocean migration. Juvenile diversity was also reflected in adult ages; the mean proportion that spent 3 years in freshwater was 0.55 (SE = 0.03), and the mean proportion that spent 2 years in freshwater was 0.41 (SE = 0.03). Adult sex ratio was female biased (mean ± SE = 0.66 ± 0.02), with a higher proportion of females (0.89 ± 0.03) than males (0.65 ± 0.05) residing in the ocean for at least 2 years. Density-dependent mechanisms were evident in juvenile rearing habitat in Fish Creek for cohorts of high female abundance. Population productivity potentials can be met when tributary and main-stem rearing habitat can be utilized, and this will be essential in attaining recovery goals.

Dobos, Marika E.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Modeling Approach to Evaluate the Cumulative Effects of Wind Energy Development on the Greater Sage-Grouse: Sensitivity Analysis and Validation of Key Parameters

To address the need for an approach to evaluate cumulative ecological impacts of wind energy development, particularly those on critical wildlife habitats and species, the authors developed a proof-of-concept, landscape-based, spatially explicit individual-based modeling (IBM) framework for populations of the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Albany County, Wyoming, based on published and other available information on the life history of the species. This sage-grouse IBM estimates the spatial and temporal movements of sage-grouse based on modeled effects of habitat characteristics and developments on sage-grouse condition, survivorship, and reproduction. After completing the initial version of the model, we conducted a series of sensitivity analyses of key model parameters and validation of lek occurrences and spatial distributions to better understand performance of the model relative to observed values of important life history characteristics. The parameter sensitivity analysis was conducted as a series of one-factor-at-a-time tests in which the values of selected parameters were individually varied to evaluate the corresponding effects on model output. We examined the model’s response to changes in parameter values to gain insight into the overall robustness of the model, identify key driver parameters, and initiate qualitative validation. Five functions selected for sensitivity analyses were (1) the rate of change in body condition in relationship to habitat suitability index (HSI) of occupied habitat (condition change rate), (2) the effect of competition between individuals with overlapping home ranges expressed as a percentage reduction in HSI (competition factor), (3) value of condition at which survivorship probability is equal to zero (zero survivorship condition), (4) the relationship between female body condition and clutch size, and (5) the relationship between female body condition and nest success. We varied the parameter values to be tested for the sensitivity analysis around the original value used in the model (i.e., tested values were higher and lower than the model’s original value) to examine the effect of this variation on the predicted output of the model. Model outputs evaluated in the sensitivity analysis included (1) predicted age-class distribution (as measured by the percentage of immature individuals within the population); (2) predicted sex ratio; (3) predicted age-sex class distribution (percent of population in each of six age-sex classes, i.e., male and female juveniles, yearlings, and adults); (4) lifespan; (5) population size; and (6) spatial distribution. Of the five parameters analyzed, condition change rate, survivorship, clutch size, and nest success did not substantially affect any of the evaluated model outputs. For the predicted age-class distribution, the percentage of immature individuals predicted by the model for these four parameters ranged from 61.9% to 65.0%, which was reasonable with respect to the reference values of 51.4 to 57.8% in published studies. The ratio of females to males ranged from 1.09 to 1.14, which was comparable to the reference values of 1.2 to 3.0 presented in an existing study. The predicted mean lifespan ranged from 1.62 to 1.74 years, which appears to be reasonable with respect to the reference values of 0.9 to 1.1 years for sharp-tail grouse and greater prairie chickens presented by published studies. The predicted population size ranged from 1,877 to 3,140. This prediction would be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county. The predicted spatial distribution was not substantially affected by the parameter values examined. In our sensitivity analyses, the only tested parameter that had a noticeable effect on model output was competition factor. Over the range of values tested for this parameter, predicted population size exhibited the largest range (from 1,833 to 4,737) of all parameters tested. As the competition factor increased, the predicted population size decreased. This reflects the effect competition had on the number of individuals that could co occur in high-quality habitat patches. Despite this apparently significant effect, the range of values appears to be reasonable with respect to our estimate of 5,000 yearlings and adults, which was based on the USFWS estimate for the state of Wyoming scaled to the number of leks in the county.

17 WIND ENERGY↗