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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy

India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India’s grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India’s proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India’s specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India’s 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adoption of perennial energy crops in the US Midwest: Causal and heterogeneous determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm-scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the US Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal-relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. Here, we find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identify statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data for Adoption of Perennial Energy Crops in the U.S. Midwest, Causal and Heterogeneous Determinants

The success of a bioenergy policy relies largely on the wide adoption of perennial energy crops at the farm scale. This study uses survey data to examine potential adoption decisions by farmers in the U.S. Midwest and the causal effects of various direct and indirect influencing factors, especially heterogeneous preferences of farmers. A Bayesian network (BN) model is developed to delineate the causal relationship between farmers adoption decisions and the influencing factors. We find a dominating role of economic factors and a non-negligible impact of non-economic factors, such as the perceived environmental benefits and the extent of familiarity with perennial energy crops. To examine the effect of heterogeneity in farmer preferences, we classify the surveyed farmers into four categories based on their attitudes toward the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of perennial energy crops. We identified statistically significant between-group differences in the responses of the four types of farmers to the various influencing factors. Our findings contribute to disentangling the complicated motivations that will influence perennial energy crop adoption decisions and provide implications for more targeted policy development that need to consider the heterogeneous drivers of farmer decisions about land use.

Modeling↗

NASA NTRS1972

Study of aircraft in intraurban transportation systems, San Francisco Bay area

The nine-county San Francisco Bay area is examined in two time periods (1975-1980 and 1985-1990) as a scenario for analyzing the characteristics of an intraurban, commuter-oriented aircraft transportation system. Aircraft have dominated the long-haul passenger market for some time, but efforts to penetrate the very-short-haul intraurban market have met with only token success. Yet, the characteristics of an aircraft transportation system, speed and flexibility, are very much needed to solve the transportation ills of our major urban areas. The aircraft intraurban system is a technically feasible alternative to ground transportation systems. Although requiring some subsidy, it becomes socially viable where substantial commuter traffic exists at ranges of 10 to 15 mi or more and where topographic features constrain ground travel. The general problem areas of community noise, air traffic congestion, ground transportation interface, pollution, and safety appear to have workable solutions.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part II: Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea

Retrospective eruption characterization is valuable for advancing our understanding of volcanic systems and evaluating our observational capabilities, especially with remote technologies (defined here as a space-borne system or non-local, ground-based instrumentation which include regional and remote infrasound sensors). In June 2019, the open-system Ulawun volcano, Papua New Guinea, produced a VEI 4 eruption. We combined data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System infrasound network, and GLD360 globally detected lightning with information from the local authorities and social media to characterize the pre-, syn- and post-eruptive behaviour. The Rabaul Volcano Observatory recorded ~24 h of seismicity and detected SO 2 emissions ~16 h before the visually-documented start of the Plinian phase on 26 June at 04:20 UTC. Infrasound and SO2 detections suggest the eruption started during the night on 24 June 2019 at 10:39 UTC ~38 h before ash detections with a gas-dominated jetting phase. Local reports and infrasound detections show that the second phase of the eruption started on 25 June 19:28 UTC with ~6 h of jetting. The first detected lightning occurred on 26 June 00:14 UTC, and ash emissions were first detected by Himawari-8 at 01:00 UTC. Post-eruptive satellite imagery indicates new flow deposits to the south and north of the edifice and ash fall to the west and southwest. In particular, regional infrasound data provided novel insight into eruption onset and syn-eruptive changes in intensity. We conclude that, while remote observations are sufficient for detection and tracking of syn-eruptive changes, key challenges in data latency, acquisition, and synthesis must be addressed to improve future near-real-time characterization of eruptions at minimally-monitored or unmonitored volcanoes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Resource Adequacy and Community Impacts of an Evolving Grid: Considerations for State Regulators

As U.S. power systems continue to decarbonize, state regulators must be able to broadly assess the cost and reliability implications of proposed fossil retirements and the corresponding resources that are coming online to replace them. Specifically, regulators must evaluate whether proposed infrastructure investments are sufficient to ensure the long-term reliability of the system, while also protecting rate payers by ensuring that such investments are necessary and not excessive. Broadly speaking, this objective is typically framed in terms of maintaining long-term resource adequacy at the lowest cost, while also ensuring that other social and/or environmental objectives are satisfied. System planners currently have a host of sophisticated analytical tools at their disposal to evaluate the cost-benefit trade-offs of different approaches to ensuring resource adequacy. However, most of these tools and associated metrics were designed with traditional power systems in mind. Over the past decade, it has become increasingly clear that the metrics and models that have reliably assessed resource adequacy in systems dominated by large thermal and hydropower resources will be insufficient for systems with significant contributions from emerging technologies such as wind, solar and storage. Therefore, in recent years many new metrics and modeling approaches have been developed, and are increasingly being implemented, to meet the needs of the clean energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sustainability perspectives of integrated pulp and paper biorefineries – A systematic critical review

As the pulp and paper industry is impacted by changing product demand trends, an opportunity arises to utilize existing pulp and paper mills (PPMs) and byproduct biomass to produce a wide range of value-added products, i.e., by converting existing PPMs into integrated pulp and paper biorefineries (IPPBs), a form of industrial symbiosis. In addition to the conventional products that a pulp and paper mill produces, IPPBs produce bio-based products that can help generate a new income stream. This paper provides a systematic critical review of IPPBs with a focus on the types of IPPBs and sustainability perspectives. Specifically, this review's objective is to identify and discuss current and emerging types of IPPBs, provide insights into the types of value-added products produced, and the opportunities and barriers they have according to published literature. We reviewed 97 articles and proposed a robust definition for IPPBs. The results show that there is a dominance of studying bioethanol as the main value-added product and black liquor as one of the main feedstocks. Additionally, we found that there are different types of market challenges for bioproducts depending on the conventional product being replaced and that location and policies play a crucial role. This review identified the limited sustainability focus on this topic and the crucial need to invest in new research to more thoroughly cover the environmental, economic, and social impacts of IPPBs.

Biorefinery pathways↗

NASA NTRS1982

A study of general aviation community noise impact and annoyance

The method involved the selection of three airports which were dominated by aircraft weighing 12,500 lbs or under and which were also undergoing a change relative to utilization. Also, there was interest in airports with different utilization levels so that effect of number of operations could be considered. In addition, there was a requirement to select airports with communities in the surrounding areas which were exposed to aircraft operations noise. Noise annoyance response data was obtained from available sources. These sources included environmental impact statements, interviews with airport managers, noise complaint information, community meetings concerned with projected changes in airport utilization, and social survey data. As a means of objectively assessing the noise impact due to aircraft operations, noise measurement and computer noise modeling determinations were obtained for each airport. Listening quality tape recordings were also obtained.

Mabry, J. E.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Impact of Total Liberalization of Domestic Air Transport on the Social Welfare and on the Dynamic of Competition: Comparison Between the United States and the European Union

Since the lst of April 1997 date of the implementation of the third package of the liberalization, air transport, within the european Union has become totally liberalized. In the United States the deregulation of domestic air traffic was earlier and faster since it took place in October 1978 after the adoption of the only act of deregulation. This paper, in its first part, deals with the liberalization of the industry of air traffic in the european union. After a comparison with US system based on market demand, fare policy and network restrictions, we present our descriptive results coming from treatments on the OAG data. These results present several aspects such as the evolution of the competitive structure of the intra-european routes, the level of airport dominance and the growth of hub structure. The second part of the paper presents models of entry in the airline industry. As profitability" of route flown explains correctly decisions taken by airlines to serve or not a route, the paper focuses on the specification and the estimation of the determinants of city, pair profitability in the european union. Treatments done on the OAG data show a rapid development of leasing space agreement (partial and total) and code sharing practices between 1995 and 2000 in Europe that's why we differentiate first between the two type of competitive strategy of entry(direct entry and leasing space agreement) and second between the competitive strategy of entry and the alliance strategy of code sharing. So the estimation of model will be able to answer the question if the european air transport market is contestable and in case not to see if the decision of entry is more directed by the level of airport dominance (as in the domestic United States market)or essentially by the competitive structure of the routes. We try to explain the nature of entry(directleasing or code sharing) by the different levels of these two determinants.

Zbidi, Karim↗

NASA NTRS2023

San Joaquin Valley Health & Air Quality: Evaluating the Overlap of Social Vulnerabilities and Air Quality in the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District

Little Manila Rising (LMR) is a nonprofit in Stockton, California that has been increasingly concerned by the air pollution in their city and the neighboring San Joaquin Valley (SJV). Geographical factors, climate conditions, and anthropogenic activities, such as agriculture burning and vehicle emissions, contribute to the high levels of air pollution in this region. To visualize the distribution of air pollution and social disparities across the SJV, LMR partnered with NASA DEVELOP. The DEVELOP team used Terra and Aqua MODIS, Sentinel-5P TROPOMI, and CALIPSO CALIOP to observe Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), Nitrogen Dioxide (NO 2 ), and the vertical distribution of pollutants at varying pollution levels, respectively. Additionally, Suomi-NPP VIIRS provided active fire data. By leveraging NASA Earth observations along with sociodemographic and public health data, the DEVELOP team created maps identifying the areas experiencing the highest vulnerabilities and disparities in pollution exposure. The team found that AOD was slightly higher in agricultural regions, while NO 2 was consistently higher along transportation corridors and urban areas. Wildfires dominated the type of detected active fires, and there was high correlation (R 2 = 0.6924) between active fires and burn permits in agricultural tracts. Furthermore, the team identified both high AOD vulnerability and high NO 2 vulnerability in census tracts in South Stockton, an area that has been historically redlined and disinvested in, and where LMR resides. There was also a moderate correlation between air quality reported from the satellites and in-situ ground monitors. These results will support LMR’s organizing strategies for stricter enforcement of air pollution regulations and increased public health equity for community members.

Agricultural Fires↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sustainability of soil organic carbon in consolidated gully land in China’s Loess Plateau

Massive gully land consolidation projects, launched in China’s Loess Plateau, aim to restore 2667 km 2 agricultural lands in total by consolidating 2026 highly eroded gullies. This effort represents a social engineering project where the economic development and livelihood of the farming families are closely tied to the ability of these emergent landscapes to provide agricultural services. Whether these ‘time zero’ landscapes have the resilience to provide a sustainable soil condition such as soil organic carbon (SOC) content remains unknown. By studying two watersheds, one of which is a control site, we show that the consolidated gully serves as an enhanced carbon sink, where the magnitude of SOC increase rate (1.0 gC/m 2 /year) is about twice that of the SOC decrease rate (-0.5 gC/m 2 /year) in the surrounding natural watershed. Over a 50-year co-evolution of landscape and SOC turnover, we find that the dominant mechanisms that determine the carbon cycling are different between the consolidated gully and natural watersheds. In natural watersheds, the flux of SOC transformation is mainly driven by the flux of SOC transport; but in the consolidated gully, the transport has little impact on the transformation. Furthermore, we find that extending the surface carbon residence time has the potential to efficiently enhance carbon sequestration from the atmosphere with a rate as high as 8 gC/m 2 /year compared to the current 0.4 gC/m 2 /year. The success for the completion of all gully consolidation would lead to as high as 26.67 GgC/year sequestrated into soils. This work, therefore, not only provides an assessment and guidance of the long-term sustainability of the ‘time zero’ landscapes but also a solution for sequestration CO 2 into soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2010

Resilience of Alaska's Boreal Forest to Climatic Change

This paper assesses the resilience of Alaska s boreal forest system to rapid climatic change. Recent warming is associated with reduced growth of dominant tree species, plant disease and insect outbreaks, warming and thawing of permafrost, drying of lakes, increased wildfire extent, increased postfire recruitment of deciduous trees, and reduced safety of hunters traveling on river ice. These changes have modified key structural features, feedbacks, and interactions in the boreal forest, including reduced effects of upland permafrost on regional hydrology, expansion of boreal forest into tundra, and amplification of climate warming because of reduced albedo (shorter winter season) and carbon release from wildfires. Other temperature-sensitive processes for which no trends have been detected include composition of plant and microbial communities, long-term landscape-scale change in carbon stocks, stream discharge, mammalian population dynamics, and river access and subsistence opportunities for rural indigenous communities. Projections of continued warming suggest that Alaska s boreal forest will undergo significant functional and structural changes within the next few decades that are unprecedented in the last 6000 years. The impact of these social ecological changes will depend in part on the extent of landscape reorganization between uplands and lowlands and on policies regulating subsistence opportunities for rural communities.

Chapin, F. S., III↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Drought Behavior in the Colorado River Basin Using Unsupervised Machine Learning

Drought is a pressing issue for the Colorado River Basin (CRB) due to the social and economic value of water resources in the region and the significant uncertainty of future drought under climate change. Here, we use climate simulations from various Earth System Models (ESMs) to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model and project multiple drought indicators for the sub-watersheds within the CRB. We apply an unsupervised machine learning (ML) based on Non-Negative Matrix Factorization using K-means clustering (NMFk) to synthesize the simulated historical, future, and change in drought indicators. The unsupervised ML approach can identify sub-watersheds where key changes to drought indicator behavior occur, including shifts in snowpack, snowmelt timing, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. While changes in future precipitation vary across ESMs, the results indicate that the Upper CRB will experience increasing evaporative demand and surface-water scarcity, with some locations experiencing a shift from a radiation-limited to a water-limited evaporation regime in the summer. Large shifts in peak runoff are observed in snowmelt-dominant sub-watersheds, with complete disappearance of the snowmelt signal for some sub-watersheds. The work demonstrates the utility of the NMFk algorithm to efficiently identify behavioral changes of drought indicators across space and time and to quickly analyze and interpret hydro climate model results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗