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Solar particle event of February 1965 observation with Mariner IV and Injun IV showing 70 degrees heliocentric longitudinal distribution in interplanetary space
The solar particle events of August through December 1989, among the largest ever recorded, are analyzed to assess the potential hazards to humans on interplanetary missions from events of these types. Using the coupled neutron-proton space radiation transport computer code BRYNTRN, risk estimates for the effects of exposures to the skin, ocular lens, and bone marrow are made for nominal thicknesses of the spacecraft aluminum shielding. Risk assessment in terms of absorbed dose is made for each event. Also presented are estimates of organ absorbed dose and dose equivalent for pairs of events which occurred within 30-day periods, and for the cumulative August through December 1989 period.
The solar-particle event (SPE) of September 29, 1989, produced an iron-rich spectrum with energies approaching 1 A GeV with an approximate spectral slope parameter of 2.5. These high charge and energy (HZE) ions challenge conventional methods of shield design and assessment of astronaut risks. In the past, shield design and risk assessment have relied on proton shielding codes and biological response models derived from X-ray and neutron exposure data. Because the HZE spectra decline rapidly with energy and HZE attenuation in materials is limited by their penetration power, details of the mass distributions about the sensitive tissues (shielding materials and the astronaut's body) are important determining factors of the exposure levels and distributions of linear energy transfer. Local tissue environments during the SPE of September 29, 1989, with its f= components are examined to analyze the importance of these ions to human SPE exposure. Typical space suit and lightly shielded structures leave significant contributions from HZE components to certain critical body tissues and have important implications on the models for risk assessment. A heavily shielded equipment room of a space vehicle or habitat requires knowledge of the breakup of these ions into lighter components, including neutrons, for shield design specifications.
Large solar particle events (SPEs) present significant acute radiation risks to the crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) or in lightly shielded space vehicles for space missions beyond the protection of the Earth's magnetic field. Acute radiation sickness (ARS) can impair performance and result in failure of the mission. Improved forecasting capability and/or early-warning systems and proper shielding solutions are required to stay within NASA's short-term dose limits. Exactly how to make use of observations of SPEs for predicting occurrence and size is a great challenge, because SPE occurrences themselves are random in nature even though the expected frequency of SPEs is strongly influenced by the time position within the solar activity cycle. Therefore, we developed a probabilistic model approach, where a cumulative expected occurrence curve of SPEs for a typical solar cycle was formed from a non-homogeneous Poisson process model fitted to a database of proton fluence measurements of SPEs that occurred during the past 5 solar cycles (19 - 23) and those of large SPEs identified from impulsive nitrate enhancements in polar ice. From the fitted model, the expected frequency of SPEs was estimated at any given proton fluence threshold (Phi(sub E)) with energy (E) >30 MeV during a defined space mission period. Corresponding Phi(sub E) (E=30, 60, and 100 MeV) fluence distributions were simulated with a random draw from a gamma distribution, and applied for SPE ARS risk analysis for a specific mission period. It has been found that the accurate prediction of deep-seated organ doses was more precisely predicted at high energies, Phi(sub 100), than at lower energies such as Phi(sub 30) or Phi(sub 60), because of the high penetration depth of high energy protons. Estimates of ARS are then described for 90th and 95th percentile events for several mission lengths and for several likely organ dose-rates. The ability to accurately measure high energy protons (50-300 MeV) in real-time is shown to be a crucial issue for crew protection.
Solar particle events of May 23 and 28 1967, noting related solar and terrestrial phenomena
Many of the large space missions must be very rigorous in their designs to reduce risk from radiation damage as much as possible. Some ways of reducing this risk have been to build in multiple redundancies, purchase/develop radiation hardened electronics parts, and plan for worst case radiation environment scenarios. These methods work well for these ambitious missions that can afford the costs associated with these meticulous efforts. However, there have been more small spacecraft and CubeSats with smaller duration missions entering the space arena, which can take some additional risks, but cannot afford to implement all of these risk-reducing methods. Therefore, one way to quantify the radiation exposure risk for these smaller spacecraft would be to investigate the radiation environment pertinent to the mission to better understand these radiation exposures, rather than always designing to the infrequent, worst-case environment. In this study, we have investigated 34 historical solar particle events (1974-2010) that occurred during a time period when the sun spot number (SSN) was less than 30. These events contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs(sup 1-3). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events (SPEs) having proton energies often extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but without producing detectable levels of secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. The spectra for these events were fitted using a double power law fit in particle rigidity, called the Band fit method. The differential spectra were then input into the NASA Langley Research Center HZETRN 2005, which is a high-energy particle transport/dose code, to determine the dose in various thicknesses of aluminum, representing the spacecraft. This paper will detail the absorbed dose results of each of these environments, as well as analyze the data to better understand the doses over small thicknesses that are more relevant to small spacecraft and satellites, such as CubeSats. In addition, we will discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft/CubeSat-type missions.
Heavy nuclei detected in September 2, 1966 solar particle event, measuring proton, helium and heavy nuclei energy spectra
We report on observations of the abundances of elements from Helium to Nickel in over 50 different solar energetic particle events using the Solar Isotope Spectrometer (SIS) on-board the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft. It had originally been expected that the energy spectra of different elements would show spectral roll-overs at energies related to the Q/M ratio of each element. Due to the partial stripping of Fe and essentially complete stripping of O, it was expected that the Fe/O ratio would be observed to decrease with increasing energy. While many events show this pattern, others have Fe/O which is constant with energy, while for yet others Fe/O actually increases with energy. Events having constant Fe/O could simply have their spectral breaks outside of the observed energy range. However, events which show increasing Fe/O cannot be explained within the framework of spectral breaks. Possible explanations include injection of remnant heavy ions from earlier impulsive events, hybrid Events consisting of a combination of flare-accelerated and shock-accelerated particles from a single solar event, and some new physical process in shock acceleration. We will report on efforts to distinguish these possible explanations.
A study has been made of 29 intense, solar particle events observed in the energy range 25-100 MeV/nuc near Earth in the years 1997 through 2001. It is found that the majority of the events (19/29) had Fe to O ratios which were reasonably constant with time and energy, and with values above coronal. These all originated on the Sun s western hemisphere and most had intensities that rose rapidly at the time of an associated flare, and coronal mass ejection (CME), and then decayed more gradually. Few interplanetary shocks were observed during these increases. The spectra were mainly power laws. The remaining 10 events had different intensity-time profiles and Fe to O ratios that varied with time and energy with values at or below coronal. Most of these originated near central meridian and 6 had strong interplanetary shocks that were observed near Earth. In general the spectra were not power laws but steepened at high energies, particularly for Fe. There were four events with two peaks in the intensity-time profiles, the first near the time of the associated flare and the other at shock passage. The results, considered in the light of other recent work, suggest that the high energy particles that occur shortly after flares are indeed flare particles. At the highest rigidities considered here shock-accelerated particles are uncommon and are observed only in association with unusually fast shocks.
Stratospheric ozone depressions, following intense solar particle events (SPE) observed by the backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) experiment on the Nimbus-4 satellite, indicate the existence of distinct asymmetries between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These asymmetries are observed in the magnitude of the depressions above the 5-mb level, their temporal variations, and the spatial (i.e., latitude and longitude) dependence of these variations. Possible causes of asymmetries, shown by two events on August 4, 1972 and January 25, 1971, can be attributed to: (1) tilt of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) with respect to the earth's dipole magnetic field which influences the precipitation of energetic solar particles into the polar atmospheres; (2) differences in ozone chemistry caused by the large change in atmospheric temperature between summer and winter hemispheres; (3) seasonal differences of the stratosphere's dynamic states which are affected by upward propagating planetary waves in winter in contrast to the relatively undisturbed zonal flows in summer; and (4) topographic asymmetry between Northern and Southern Hemispheres. These effects are shown by three-dimensional plots of the events in geographic coordinates and by color contour plots of the stratospheric ozone distributions in geomagnetic and geographic polar coordinates, respectively.
Crew health and performance may be impacted by a major solar particle event (SPE), multiple SPEs, or the cumulative effect of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and SPEs. Beyond low-Earth orbit, the protection of the Earth's magnetosphere is no longer available, such that increased shielding and protective mechanisms are necessary in order to prevent acute radiation sickness and impacts to mission success or crew survival. While operational monitoring and shielding are expected to minimize radiation exposures, there are EVA scenarios outside of low-Earth orbit where the risk of prodromal effects, including nausea, vomiting, anorexia, and fatigue, as well as skin injury and depletion of the blood-forming organs (BFO), may occur. There is a reasonable concern that a compromised immune system due to high skin doses from a SPE or due to synergistic space flight factors (e.g., microgravity) may lead to increased risk to the BFO. The primary data available at present are derived from analyses of medical patients and persons accidentally exposed to acute, high doses of low-linear energy transfer (LET) (or terrestrial) radiation. Data more specific to the space flight environment must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of increase of this risk and to develop appropriate protection strategies. In particular, information addressing the distinct differences between solar proton exposures and terrestrial exposure scenarios, including radiation quality, dose-rate effects, and non-uniform dose distributions, is required for accurate risk estimation.
Nuclear charge spectra and energy spectra in Sep. 2, 1966 solar particle event
Observed phenomena during solar particle events in 1967
The physical composition and intensities of solar particle event exposures or sensitive astronaut tissues are examined under conditions approximating an astronaut in deep space. Response functions for conversion of particle fluence into dose and dose equivalent averaged over organ tissue, are used to establish significant fluence levels and the expected dose and dose rates of the most important events from past observations. The BRYNTRN transport code is used to evaluate the local environment experienced by sensitive tissues and used to evaluate bioresponse models developed for use in tactical nuclear warfare. The present results will help to the biophysical aspects of such exposure in the assessment of RBE and dose rate effects and their impact on design of protection systems for the astronauts. The use of polymers as shielding material in place of an equal mass of aluminum would prowide a large safety factor without increasing the vehicle mass. This safety factor is sufficient to provide adequate protection if a factor of two larger event than has ever been observed in fact occurs during the mission.
Intensities and energies of solar cosmic ray particles detected near earth
Radiation exposures and cancer induction/mortality risks were investigated for several major solar particle events (SPE's). The SPE's included are: February 1956, November 1960, August 1972, October 1989, and the September, August, and October 1989 events combined. The three 1989 events were treated as one since all three could affect a single lunar or Mars mission. A baryon transport code was used to propagate particles through aluminum and tissue shield materials. A free space environment was utilized for all calculations. Results show the 30-day blood forming organs (BFO) limit of 25 rem was surpassed by all five events using 10 g/sq cm of shielding. The BFO limit is based on a depth dose of 5 cm of tissue, while a more detailed shield distribution of the BFO's was utilized. A comparison between the 5 cm depth dose and the dose found using the BFO shield distribution shows that the 5 cm depth value slightly higher than the BFO dose. The annual limit of 50 rem was exceeded by the August 1972, October 1989, and the three combined 1989 events with 5 g/sq cm of shielding. Cancer mortality risks ranged from 1.5 to 17 percent at 1 g/sq cm and 0.5 to 1.1 percent behind 10 g/sq cm of shielding for five events. These ranges correspond to those for a 45 year old male. It is shown that secondary particles comprise about 1/3 of the total risk at 10 g/sq cm of shielding. Utilizing a computerized Space Shuttle shielding model to represent a typical spacecraft configuration in free space at the August 1972 SPE, average crew doses exceeded the BFO dose limit.
In an earlier paper (Atwell, et al., 2015), we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. These SPEs contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs (Tylka and Dietrich, 2009, Tylka and Dietrich, 2008, and Atwell, et al., 2008). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events having proton energies extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but do not produce secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. In this paper, we consider those SPEs that occurred during 1973-2010 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. In addition, we provide probability estimates of absorbed dose based on mission duration with a 95% confidence level (CL). We also discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft.
Solar particle events (SPEs) are a concern to space missions outside Earth s geomagnetic field. The September 29, 1989 SPE is the largest ground-level event since February 23, 1956. It is an iron-rich event for which the spectra are well measured. Because ten times this event matches the ground level data of the February 1956 SPE, it is suggested that an event with ten-times the scaled spectra of the September 29, 1989 SPE be used as a worst case SPE for spacecraft design. For the worst case SPE, the input spectra were reconstructed using Nymmik's (1995) model for protons, the O and Fe ion spectra of Tylka et al. (1997) to evaluate the iron enhancement ratio, and the Solar Energetic Particle Baseline (SEPB) composition of McGuire et al. (1986) for the heavy ions. The necessary transport properties of the shielding materials and the astronaut s body tissues are evaluated using the HZETRN code. Three shield configurations (assumed to be aluminum) are considered: space suit taken as 0.3 g/sq cm, helmet/pressure vessel as 1 g/sq cm, and equipment room of 5 g/sq cm. A shelter is taken as 10 g/sq cm on the Martian surface. The effect of shielding due to the Martian atmosphere is included. The astronaut geometry is taken from the computerized anatomical man (CAM) model.