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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths.

Bachmann, Kurt T.↗
NASA NTRS1983

11-year cycle solar modulation of cosmic ray intensity inferred from C-14 content variation in dated tree rings

A liquid scintillation-photomultiplier tube counter system was used to measure the Delta-C-14 values of 60 tree rings, dating from 1866 to 1925, that were taken from a white spruce grown in Canada at 68 deg N, 130 deg W. A 10-percent variation is found which is anticorrelated with sunspot numbers, although the amplitude of the variation is 2-3 times higher than expected in trees grown at lower latitudes. A large dip in the data at about 1875 suggests an anomalously large modulation of cosmic ray intensity during the 1867-1878 AD solar cycle, which was the most active of the 19th century.

Fan, C. Y.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Identification of Solar Cycle 23 Minimum from Solar UV Measurements: NOAA-9 and NOAA-11 SBUV/2, UARS SUSIM, UARS Solstice

The purpose of this report is to present results from the study of solar cycles from solar UV measurements from March 1985 to May 1997. The study determined solar minimum date from daily spectral irradiance data sensitive to noise and the means through which long-term calibration was obtained. In this study magnesium II time series was determined from NOAA-9, and UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) SUMIM and SOLSTICE satellites.

DeLand, Matthew T.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The long-term behavior of the main peak of the dayside ionosphere of Venus during solar cycle 21 and its implications on the effect of the solar cycle upon the electron temperature in the main peak region

Results are presented on the long-term behavior of the main peak electron density in the Venus ionosphere during the solar cycle 21, based on 104 radio occultation measurements of the vertical electron density profile in the dayside ionosphere of Venus carried out aboard the Pioneer Venus Orbiter spacecraft (along with published data on 11 Venera 9-10 measurements). The equation representing the electron temperature at h = 140 km is presented. The results imply that the electron temperature at h = 140 km decreased by about 25 percent from solar maximum to solar minimum, compared to a decrease of 50-75 percent above 200 km found by Kliore and Mullen (1989).

Kliore, Arvydas J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Properties of Ground Level Enhancement Events and the Associated Solar Eruptions During Solar Cycle 23

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the most complete set of observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) associated with the Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events. We present an overview of the observed properties of the GLEs and those of the two associated phenomena, viz., flares and CMEs, both being potential sources of particle acceleration. Although we do not find a striking correlation between the GLE intensity and the parameters of flares and CMEs, the solar eruptions are very intense involving X-class flares and extreme CME speeds (average approx. 2000 km/s). An M7.1 flare and a 1200 km/s CME are the weakest events in the list of 16 GLE events. Most (80 %) of the CMEs are full halos with the three non-halos having widths in the range 167 to 212 degrees. The active regions in which the GLE events originate are generally large: 1290 msh (median 1010 msh) compared to 934 msh (median: 790 msh) for SEP-producing active regions. For accurate estimation of the CME height at the time of metric type II onset and GLE particle release, we estimated the initial acceleration of the CMEs using flare and CME observations. The initial acceleration of GLE-associated CMEs is much larger (by a factor of 2) than that of ordinary CMEs (2.3 km/sq s vs. 1 km/sq s). We confirmed the initial acceleration for two events for which CME measurements are available in the inner corona. The GLE particle release is delayed with respect to the onset of all electromagnetic signatures of the eruptions: type II bursts, low frequency type III bursts, soft X-ray flares and CMEs. The presence of metric type II radio bursts some 17 min (median: 16 min; range: 3 to 48 min) before the GLE onset indicates shock formation well before the particle release. The release of GLE particles occurs when the CMEs reach an average height of approx 3.09 R(sub s) (median: 3.18 R (sub s) ; range: 1.71 to 4.01 R (sub s) ) for well-connected events (source longitude in the range W20–W90). For poorly connected events, the average CME height at GLE particle release is ∼66 % larger (mean: 5.18 R (sub s) ; median: 4.61 R (sub s) ; range: 2.75–8.49 R (sub s) ). The longitudinal dependence is consistent with shock accelerations because the shocks from poorly connected events need to expand more to cross the field lines connecting to an Earth observer. On the other hand, the CME height at metric type II burst onset has no longitudinal dependence because electromagnetic signals do not require magnetic connectivity to the observer. For several events, the GLE particle release is very close to the time of first appearance of the CME in the coronagraphic field of view, so we independently confirmed the CME height at particle release. The CME height at metric type II burst onset is in the narrow range 1.29 to 1.8 R(sub s), with mean and median values of 1.53 and 1.47 R(sub s). The CME heights at metric type II burst onset and GLE particle release correspond to the minimum and maximum in the Alfven speed profile. The increase in CME speed between these two heights suggests an increase in Alfvenic Mach number from 2 to 3. The CME heights at GLE particle release are in good agreement with those obtained from the velocity dispersion analysis, including the source longitude dependence. We also discuss the implications of the delay of GLE particle release with respect to complex type III bursts by approx 18 min (median: 16 in; range: 2 to 44 min) for the flare acceleration mechanism. A similar analysis is also performed on the delay of particle release relative to the hard X-ray emission.

Geomagnetic Storms↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Solar Cycle

Sunspots provided the first evidence for the 11-year cycle of solar activity and continue to provide key indicators of the level and nature of solar activity. Solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections increase in frequency as the number of sunspots increases during the rising phase of the solar cycle. The total irradiance of the Sun and its irradiance in ultraviolet light and x-rays also increase as the sunspot number increases. On the other hand, the flux of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth decreases as the sunspot number increases. These changes in the heliospheric environment produce significant effects on our environment. Our technological assets, in space, in the air, and on the ground, can be adversely affected by solar activity. Satellite drag, single-event upsets in electronic components, radio communication outages, power outages, and terrestrial climate can all be influenced by solar activity. In this lecture I will describe many of the significant characteristics of the solar cycle, their roots in solar magnetism, the mechanisms of the Sun's magnetic dynamo, and predictions for the amplitude and timing of next solar cycle.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Predictions of Solar Cycle 24: How are We Doing?

Predictions of solar activity are an essential part of our Space Weather forecast capability. Users are requiring usable predictions of an upcoming solar cycle to be delivered several years before solar minimum. A set of predictions of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 accumulated in 2008 ranged from zero to unprecedented levels of solar activity. The predictions formed an almost normal distribution, centered on the average amplitude of all preceding solar cycles. The average of the current compilation of 105 predictions of the annual-average sunspot number is 106 +/- 31, slightly lower than earlier compilations but still with a wide distribution. Solar Cycle 24 is on track to have a below-average amplitude, peaking at an annual sunspot number of about 80. Our need for solar activity predictions and our desire for those predictions to be made ever earlier in the preceding solar cycle will be discussed. Solar Cycle 24 has been a below-average sunspot cycle. There were peaks in the daily and monthly averaged sunspot number in the Northern Hemisphere in 2011 and in the Southern Hemisphere in 2014. With the rapid increase in solar data and capability of numerical models of the solar convection zone we are developing the ability to forecast the level of the next sunspot cycle. But predictions based only on the statistics of the sunspot number are not adequate for predicting the next solar maximum. I will describe how we did in predicting the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 and describe how solar polar field predictions could be made more accurate in the future.

Pesnell, William D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Large-scale and solar cycle variations of the solar wind

Space probe observations relevant to the determination of the large-scale, three-dimensional structure of the solar wind and its solar cycle variations are summarized. There is a pronounced decrease in the velocity spread about the average as distance from the sun increases (from 0.6 to 5 AU). A latitude variation is found for several plasma parameters, and a dependence on the phase of the solar activity cycle is demonstrated by some of the data.

Neugebauer, M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗
NASA NTRS1983

Solar cycle evolution of the solar wind in three dimensions

Measurements of the solar wind speed both in and out of the ecliptic are presented for 1971-82. The speed estimates, which were made with the interplanetary scintillation system at UC San Diego, have been compared to in situ for large, slowly evolving structures, and thus such structures can be studied up to 60 degrees north and south heliographic latitude. Annual average wind speeds are presented versus latitude for an entire solar cycle. Fast wind streams from the poles persisted through declining and low solar activity, but were closed off during four years of high activity. This evolution follows that of the polar coronal holes, as displayed by comparing averaged speed and coronal density over latitude and longitude. The most recent data (1982) show the reestablishment of large tilted polar holes and associated fast streams. Coronal magnetic field data show that the neutral sheet is confined to low latitudes at solar minimum and extends to high latitudes at solar maximum; thus the slow solar wind comes from the same latitude range as that of the neutral sheet.

Rickett, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The solar cycle; Proceedings of the National Solar Observatory/Sacramento Peak 12th Summer Workshop, Sunspot, NM, Oct. 15-18, 1991

Attention is given to a flux-transport model, the effect of fractal distribution on the evolution of solar surface magnetic fields, active nests on the sun, magnetic flux transport in solar active regions, recent advances in stellar cycle research, magnetic intermittency on the sun, a search for existence of large-scale motions on the sun, and new solar cycle data from the NASA/NSO spectromagnetograph. Attention is also given to the solar cycle variation of coronal temperature during cycle 22, the distribution of the north-south asymmetry for the various activity cycles, solar luminosity variation, a two-parameter model of total solar irradiance variation over the solar cycle, the origin of the solar cycle, nonlinear feedbacks in the solar dynamo, and long-term dynamics of the solar cycle.

Harvey, Karen L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

The solar cycle variation in the solar wind and the modulation of cosmic rays

Evidence for a solar cycle variation in the interplanetary plasma is presented based on direct observations of the solar wind by the Pioneer and Vela spacecraft. These data indicate that between 1965 and 1971 there were more days associated with high speed streams during solar maximum than during solar minimum. These observations provide the first observational explanation for the solar modulation of cosmic rays. At solar maximum the probability is highest that cosmic rays entering the solar system will encounter high speed streams. As a result, there is more modulation of cosmic rays at solar maximum than at other times.

Intriligator, D. S.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Radial and solar cycle variations in the solar wind phase fluctuation spectral index as determined from Voyager 1978 solar conjunction data

Columnar spectral index information that has been extracted from a sizable volume of Voyager 1978 solar conjunction Doppler phase fluctuation data is presented. The Voyager 1978 results, when compared to similar information derived from the 1976 Helios and Viking Solar Conjunctions, lead to the following inferences: (1) there has been a significant change in the spectral index from 1976 to 1978; (2) there is continuing evidence that favors a slight (positive) correlation between the spectral index and the solar cycle; and (3) there is little or no evidence in support of a radial variation of the spectral index.

Berman, A. L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2007

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Improved Solar Cycle Statistical Model for the Projection of Near Future Sunspot Cycles

Since the current solar cycle 23 has progressed near the end of the cycle and accurate solar minimum and maximum occurrences have been defined, a statistical model based on the odd-even behavior of historical sunspot cycles was reexamined. Separate calculations of activity levels were made for the rising and declining phases in solar cycle 23, which resulted in improved projection of sunspots in the remainder of cycle 23. Because a fundamental understanding of the transition from cycle to cycle has not been developed, at this time it is assumed for projection purposes that solar cycle 24 will continue at the same activity level in the declining phase of cycle 23. Projection errors in solar cycle 24 can be corrected as the cycle progresses and observations become available because this model is shown to be self-correcting.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗
NASA NTRS1988

More than a solar cycle of synoptic solar and coronal data - A video presentation

Color video movies of synoptic observations of the sun and corona can now be created. Individual analog frames on laser disks can be referenced digitally and played back at any speed. We have brought together photospheric magnetic field data from the Wilcox Solar Observatory at Stanford and the National Solar Observatory, model computations of the coronal magnetic field, and coronal data from the Sacramento Peak coronagraph and the Mauna Loa K-coronameter and made a series of movies presenting the data sets individually and in comparison with one another. This paper presents a description of each of the data sets and movies developed thus far and briefly outlines some of the more interesting and obvious features observed when viewing the movies.

Hoeksema, J. T.↗