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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

Chinks in Solar Dynamo Theory: Turbulent Diffusion, Dynamo Waves and Magnetic Helicity

In this first year of our investigation we explored the role of compressibility and stratification in the dissipation of magnetic fields. The predictions of Mean Field Electrodynamics have been questioned because of the strong feedback of small scale magnetic structure on the velocity fields. In 2-D, this nonlinear feedback results in a lengthening of the turbulent decay time. In 3-D alpha-quenching is predicted. Previous studies assumed a homogeneous fluid. This first year we present recent results from 2-D compressible MHD decay simulations in a highly stratified atmosphere that more closely resembles to solar convection zone. We have applied for NCCS T3E time to assist in the performance of our 3-D calculations.

DeLuca, E. E.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Forecast of Reduced Solar Activity and Its Implications for NASA

The "Solar Dynamo" method of solar activity forecasting is reviewed. Known generically as a 'precursor" method, insofar as it uses observations which precede solar activity generation, this method now uses the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) Index to estimate future long-term solar activity. The peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (#24), is estimated at roughly 124 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 74 in terms of the older, more traditional smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). These values are significantly smaller than the amplitudes of recent solar cycles. Levels of activity stay large for about four years near the peak in smoothed activity, which is estimated to occur near the 2012 timeflame. Confidence is added to the prediction of low activity by numerous examinations of the Sun s weakened polar field. Direct measurements are obtained by the Mount Wilson Solar Observatory and the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Further support is obtained by examining the Sun s polar faculae (bright features), the shape of coronal soft X-ray "holes," and the shape of the "source surface" - a calculated coronal feature which maps the large scale structure of the Sun s field. These features do not show the characteristics of well-formed polar coronal holes associated with typical solar minima. They show stunted polar field levels, which are thought to result in stunted levels of solar activity during solar cycle #24. The reduced levels of solar activity would have concomitant effects upon the space environment in which satellites orbit. In particular, the largest influences would affect orbit determination of satellites in LEO (Low Earth Orbit), based upon the altered thermospheric and exospheric densities. A decrease in solar activity would result in smaller satellite decay rates, as well as fewer large solar events that can destroy satellite electronic functions. Other effects of reduced solar activity upon the space environment include enhanced galactic cosmic rays and more space debris at low altitudes (from the decay of old satellite parts, etc.). The reasons are well known: namely, solar activity serves to sweep the inner heliosphere of galactic cosmic rays, and lower exospheric densities result in decreased drag on LEO debris, allowing longer lifetimes.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS1980

The energy coupling function and the power generated by the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo

A solar wind parameter epsilon, known as the energy coupling function, has been shown to correlate with the power consumption in the magnetosphere. It is shown in the present paper that the parameter epsilon can be identified semi-quantitatively as the dynamo power delivered from the solar wind to an open magnetosphere. This identification not only provides a theoretical basis for the energy coupling function, but also constitutes an observational verification of the solar wind-magnetosphere dynamo along the magnetotail. Moreover, one can now conclude that a substorm results when the dynamo power exceeds 10 to the 18th erg/s.

Kan, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Subgrid Scale Modeling in Solar Convection Simulations using the ASH Code

The turbulent solar convection zone has remained one of the most challenging and important subjects in physics. Understanding the complex dynamics in the solar con- vection zone is crucial for gaining insight into the solar dynamo problem. Many solar observatories have generated revealing data with great details of large scale motions in the solar convection zone. For example, a strong di erential rotation is observed: the angular rotation is observed to be faster at the equator than near the poles not only near the solar surface, but also deep in the convection zone. On the other hand, due to the wide range of dynamical scales of turbulence in the solar convection zone, both theory and simulation have limited success. Thus, cutting edge solar models and numerical simulations of the solar convection zone have focused more narrowly on a few key features of the solar convection zone, such as the time-averaged di erential rotation. For example, Brun & Toomre (2002) report computational finding of differential rotation in an anelastic model for solar convection. A critical shortcoming in this model is that the viscous dissipation is based on application of mixing length theory to stellar dynamics with some ad hoc parameter tuning. The goal of our work is to implement the subgrid scale model developed at CTR into the solar simulation code and examine how the differential rotation will be a affected as a result. Specifically, we implement a Smagorinsky-Lilly subgrid scale model into the ASH (anelastic spherical harmonic) code developed over the years by various authors. This paper is organized as follows. In x2 we briefly formulate the anelastic system that describes the solar convection. In x3 we formulate the Smagorinsky-Lilly subgrid scale model for unstably stratifed convection. We then present some preliminary results in x4, where we also provide some conclusions and future directions.

Young, Y.-N.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Dynamo-based scheme for forecasting the magnitude of solar activity cycles

This paper presents a general framework for forecasting the smoothed maximum level of solar activity in a given cycle, based on a simple understanding of the solar dynamo. This type of forecasting requires knowledge of the sun's polar magnetic field strength at the preceding activity minimum. Because direct measurements of this quantity are difficult to obtain, the quality of a number of proxy indicators already used by other authors is evaluated, which are physically related to the sun's polar field. These indicators are subjected to a rigorous statistical analysis, and the analysis technique for each indicator is specified in detail in order to simplify and systematize reanalysis for future use. It is found that several of these proxies are in fact poorly correlated or uncorrelated with solar activity, and thus are of little value for predicting activity maxima. Also presented is a scheme in which the predictions of the individual proxies are combined via an appropriately weighted mean to produce a compound prediction. The scheme is then applied to the current cycle 22, and a maximum smoothed international sunspot number of 171 + or - 26 is estimated.

Layden, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Period and phase of the 88-year solar cycle and the Maunder minimum - Evidence for a chaotic sun

The problem of whether the solar dynamo is quasi-periodic or chaotic is addressed by examining 1500 years of sunspot, geomagnetic, and auroral activity cycles. Sub-harmonics were found of the fundamental solar cycle period during the years preceding the Maunder minimum and loss of phase of the subharmonic on emergence from it. These phenomena are indicative of chaos. They indicate that the solar dynamo is chaotic and is operating in a region close to the transition between period doubling and chaos. Since Maunder-type minima reoccur irregularly for millennia, it appears that the sun remains close to this transition to and from chaos. This is postulated to be a universal characteristic of solar type stars caused by feedback in the dynamo number.

Feynman, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

What Would a Dynamo Theorist like to Know About the Dynamics of the Solar Convection Zone?

Observations about the current status of solar dynamo theory are given. The induction equation for magnetic field is solved using assumed velocities and parametric representations of the inductive or diffusive effects of velocities. The equations of motion governing these flow are not solved in parallel. Results from global compressible convection models are discussed. Differential rotation and convection are also investigated.

Gilman, P. A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

RS CVn binaries: Testing the solar-stellar dynamo connection

We have used the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer satellite to study the coronal emission from the EUV-bright RS CVn binaries Sigma2 CrB, observed February 10-21, 1994, and II Peg, observed October 1-5, 1993. We present time-resolved and integrated EUV short-, medium-, and long-wavelength spectra for these binaries. Sigma2 CrB shows significant first-order emission features in the long-wavelength region. The coronal emission distributions and electron densities are estimated for those active coronae dominated by high temperature plasma.

Dempsey, R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dynamo theory prediction of solar activity

The dynamo theory technique to predict decadal time scale solar activity variations is introduced. The technique was developed following puzzling correlations involved with geomagnetic precursors of solar activity. Based upon this, a dynamo theory method was developed to predict solar activity. The method was used successfully in solar cycle 21 by Schatten, Scherrer, Svalgaard, and Wilcox, after testing with 8 prior solar cycles. Schatten and Sofia used the technique to predict an exceptionally large cycle, peaking early (in 1990) with a sunspot value near 170, likely the second largest on record. Sunspot numbers are increasing, suggesting that: (1) a large cycle is developing, and (2) that the cycle may even surpass the largest cycle (19). A Sporer Butterfly method shows that the cycle can now be expected to peak in the latter half of 1989, consistent with an amplitude comparable to the value predicted near the last solar minimum.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Solar-wind/magnetospheric dynamos: MHD-scale collective entry of the solar wind energy, momentum and mass into the magnetosphere

A quasi open MHD (Magnetohydrodynamic) scale anomalous transport controlled boundary layer model is proposed, where the MHD collective behavior of magnetofluids (direct dynamo effect, anomalous viscous interaction and anomalous diffusion of the mass and the magnetic field) plays the main role in the conversion of the Solar Wind (SW) kinetic and magnetic energy into electromagnetic energy in the Magnetosphere (MSp). The so called direct and indirect dynamo effects are based on inductive and purely dissipative energy conversion, respectively. The self organization ability of vector fields in turbulent magnetofluids implies an inductive response of the plasma, which leads to the direct dynamo effect. The direct dynamo effect describes the direct formation of localized field aligned currents and the transverse Alfven waves and provides a source for MHD scale anomalous diffusivity and viscosity. The SW/MSp coupling depends on the dynamo efficiency.

Song, Yan↗
NASA NTRS1990

On the possibility of an alpha-sq omega-type dynamo in a thin layer inside the sun

If the solar dynamo operates in a thin layer of 10,000-km thickness at the interface between the convection zone and the radiative core, using the facts that the dynamo should have a period of 22 years and a half-wavelength of 40 deg in the theta-direction, it is possible to impose restrictions on the values which various dynamo parameters are allowed to have. It is pointed out that the dynamo should be of alpha-sq omega nature, and kinematical calculations are presented for free dynamo waves and for dynamos in thin rectangular slabs with appropriate boundary conditions. An alpha-sq omega dynamo is expected to produce a significant poloidal field which does not leak to the solar surface. It is found that the turbulent diffusity eta and alpha-coefficient are restricted to values within about a factor of 10, the median values being eta of about 10 to the 10th sq cm/sec and alpha of about 10 cm/sec. On the basis of mixing length theory, it is pointed out that such values imply a reasonable turbulent velocity of the order 30 m/s, but rather small turbulent length scales like 300 km.

Choudhuri, Arnab Rai↗
NASA NTRS1999

Solar Cycle Predictions

We currently lack a comprehensive model for the solar dynamo which might be used for predicting solar cycle activity levels. We can, nonetheless, predict these activity levels with some skill using a variety of techniques based on correlations between activity indicators at different times. A number of the techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time-scale have been tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month by month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the next cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. The combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle of a time well before activity minimum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude can then be used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting the amplitude of the next solar cycle supports the idea of extended solar cycle in which the activity cycles overlap. While the current cycle is producing sunspots and active regions in the Sun's equatorial regions the next cycle is already actively influencing the geomagnetic field, The precise nature and source of this influence remains unclear.

Hathaway, D. H.↗