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DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation

Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice

Abstract Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of September Arctic SIA change, internal variability accounts for as much as 40%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade, while emissions scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model structure accounts for 60%–70% of the total uncertainty by mid-century and declines to 30% at the end of the 21st century in the summer months. For projections of wintertime Arctic SIA change, internal variability contributes as much as 50%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade and impacts total uncertainty at longer lead times when compared to the summertime. In winter, there exists a considerable scenario dependence of model uncertainty with relatively larger model uncertainty under strong forcing compared to weak forcing. At regional scales, the contribution of internal variability can vary widely and strongly depends on the calendar month and region. For wintertime SIA change in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian and Barents Seas, internal variability contributes 60%–70% to the total uncertainty over the coming decades and remains important much longer than in other regions. We further find that the relative contribution of internal variability to total uncertainty is state-dependent and increases as sea ice volume declines. These results demonstrate that internal variability is a significant source of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Possibility to Identify the Contributions from Collapsars, Supernovae, and Neutron Star Mergers from the Evolution of the r-process Mass Abundance Distribution

We study the evolution of rapid neutron-capture process (r-process) isotopes in the galaxy. We analyze relative contributions from core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), neutron star mergers, and collapsars under a range of astrophysical conditions and nuclear input data. Here we show that, although the r-process in each of these sites can lead to a similar (universal) elemental distribution, the detailed isotopic abundances can differ from one site to another. These differences may allow for the identification of which sources contributed to the early evolution of r-process material in the galaxy. Our simulations suggest that the early evolution was dominated by CCSNe and collapsar r-process nucleosynthesis. This conclusion may be testable if the next generation of observatories can deduce isotopic r-process abundances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Excessive radon-based radiation in indoor air caused by soil building materials in traditional homes on Đồng Văn karst plateau, northern Vietnam

Radon-based radiation from natural soil building materials is an important factor likely influencing residents’ health as a contributing source of natural radiation. This work aims to quantify the nuclide-specific α-radiation of isotopes 222 Rn and 220 Rn in common types of houses in a region of northern Vietnam, Ɖông Văn karst plateau, to preliminarily (i) evaluate the total annual effective dose rates and (ii) assess the relative risk of cancer induction from indoor α-radiation for inhabitants. The average 222 Rn concentrations in all house types were lower than 100 Bq m -3 , but 220 Rn abundances were far higher than 222 Rn, even up to >1000 Bq m -3 in air close to a wall of unfired-soil bricks. The estimated total annual effective dose rates from indoor 222 Rn and 220 Rn and their progenies to residents with daily exposure of 13 h in the various types of houses range from 3.1 to 4.3 mSv a -1 for houses constructed with modified materials, but up to higher than 6 mSv a -1 in houses with raw building materials. The average risk of developing lung cancer as a consequence of a lifetime exposure to indoor α-radiation in affected homes ranges from 3.9% to 14.6%. 220 Rn and its metallic progenies contribute more than 80% of the total average lung cancer risk from total radon, being responsible for a range of 2.7–14.6% of the risk of developing lung cancer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) Formation during Summertime Fog in an Arctic Oil Field

Hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) is produced in the aqueous-phase reaction of formaldehyde (HCHO) and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and has been proposed as a significant contributor to midlatitude wintertime pollution events. In this work, we report HMS detection within submicrometer atmospheric aerosols during frequent late summer, regional fog events in an Arctic oil field. The number fraction of individual particles containing HMS increased during fog periods, consistent with aqueous-phase formation. The single-particle mass spectra showed the primary particle signature (oil field emissions), plus secondary oxidized organics and sulfate, consistent with aqueous-phase processing. HMS mass concentrations ranged from below the ion chromatography limit of detection (0.3 ng/m 3 ) to 1.6 ng/m 3 , with sulfate concentrations of 37-222 ng/m 3 . HCHO and SO 2 measurements suggest that the fog HMS production rate is ~10 times higher in the oil fields than in the upwind Beaufort Sea. Aqueous-phase reactions of local oil field emissions during frequent summertime regional fog events likely have downwind impacts on Arctic aerosol composition. The potential for fog-based HMS production was estimated to be an order of magnitude higher in Fairbanks and Anchorage, AK, than in the oil fields and may explain the missing organosulfate source contributing to Fairbanks air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Disentangling the Impact of the COVID‐19 Lockdowns on Urban NO 2 From Natural Variability

Abstract TROPOMI satellite data show substantial drops in nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) during COVID‐19 physical distancing. To attribute NO 2 changes to NO x emissions changes over short timescales, one must account for meteorology. We find that meteorological patterns were especially favorable for low NO 2 in much of the United States in spring 2020, complicating comparisons with spring 2019. Meteorological variations between years can cause column NO 2 differences of ~15% over monthly timescales. After accounting for solar angle and meteorological considerations, we calculate that NO 2 drops ranged between 9.2% and 43.4% among 20 cities in North America, with a median of 21.6%. Of the studied cities, largest NO 2 drops (>30%) were in San Jose, Los Angeles, and Toronto, and smallest drops (<12%) were in Miami, Minneapolis, and Dallas. These normalized NO 2 changes can be used to highlight locations with greater activity changes and better understand the sources contributing to adverse air quality in each city.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sterol methyltransferases in uncultured bacteria complicate eukaryotic biomarker interpretations

Abstract Sterane molecular fossils are broadly interpreted as eukaryotic biomarkers, although diverse bacteria also produce sterols. Steranes with side-chain methylations can act as more specific biomarkers if their sterol precursors are limited to particular eukaryotes and are absent in bacteria. One such sterane, 24-isopropylcholestane, has been attributed to demosponges and potentially represents the earliest evidence for animals on Earth, but enzymes that methylate sterols to give the 24-isopropyl side-chain remain undiscovered. Here, we show that sterol methyltransferases from both sponges and yet-uncultured bacteria function in vitro and identify three methyltransferases from symbiotic bacteria each capable of sequential methylations resulting in the 24-isopropyl sterol side-chain. We demonstrate that bacteria have the genomic capacity to synthesize side-chain alkylated sterols, and that bacterial symbionts may contribute to 24-isopropyl sterol biosynthesis in demosponges. Together, our results suggest bacteria should not be dismissed as potential contributing sources of side-chain alkylated sterane biomarkers in the rock record.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Linking international technical specifications for acoustic characterization of marine energy converter sounds with environmental compliance criteria

As new ocean energy technologies emerge and are deployed for testing and operations, sound emissions are a potential concern for environmental effects to marine life. Consistent acoustic measurement and data analysis methods can help promote comparisons of technologies and transferability between project sites. In 2022, acoustic emissions from a prototype scale wave energy converter (WEC) were characterized for a range of environmental conditions and power generation states in the coastal waters off southern California using a set of international technical specifications. Results from the international technical specification analyses were applied to United States regulatory threshold criteria for acoustic impacts to marine mammals and examined in the context of European underwater noise monitoring guidelines. Weighted 24 hour cumulative sound exposure levels SEL24h calculated from the highest power generation state WEC sound pressure levels were often more than 20 dB below threshold criteria for temporary threshold shifts in five relevant marine mammal hearing groups. Following European Union recommendations for analyses and reporting, WEC sound characterization in third octave bands centered at 63 Hz and 125 Hz show clear spatial decay of WEC-generated noise, with more pronounced attenuation at 63 Hz, and a less marked but still detectable gradient at 125 Hz, collectively suggesting a relatively confined acoustic footprint under the observed conditions. The value of the international technical specification approach is highlighted by the isolation of WEC sounds from the surrounding soundscape. This allows for a robust characterization of acoustic emissions through a range of device power generation and sea states. Furthermore, in threshold-based regulatory contexts like the U.S., this facilitates direct evaluation of source contributions, while in broader monitoring frameworks used in the E.U. it provides a reproducible foundation for assessing the contribution of emerging ocean energy technologies to the underwater acoustic environment.

Haxel, Joseph H. (ORCID:0000000273864761)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observations of ozone, acyl peroxy nitrates, and their precursors during summer 2019 at Carlsbad Caverns National Park, New Mexico

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Forward modeling fluctuations in the DESI LRGs target sample using image simulations

We use the forward modeling pipeline, Obiwan, to study the imaging systematics of the Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) targeted by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Imaging systematics refers to the false fluctuation of galaxy densities due to varying observing conditions and astrophysical foregrounds corresponding to the imaging surveys from which DESI LRG target galaxies are selected. We update the Obiwan pipeline, which we previously developed to simulate the optical images used to target DESI data, to further simulate WISE images in the infrared. This addition allows simulating the DESI LRGs sample, which utilizes WISE data in the target selection. Deep DESI imaging data combined with a method to account for biases in their shapes is used to define a truth sample of potential LRG targets. We inject these data evenly throughout the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey footprint at declinations between -30 and 32.375 degrees. We simulate a total of 15 million galaxies to obtain a simulated LRG sample (Obiwan LRGs) that predicts the variations in target density due to imaging properties. We find that the simulations predict the trends with depth observed in the data, including how they depend on the intrinsic brightness of the galaxies. We observe that faint LRGs are the main contributing source of the imaging systematics trend induced by depth. We also find significant trends in the data against Galactic extinction that are not predicted by Obiwan. These trends depend strongly on the particular map of Galactic extinction chosen to test against, implying systematic contamination in the Galactic extinction maps is a likely root cause (e.g., Cosmic-Infrared Background, dust temperature correction). We additionally observe a morphological change of the DESI LRGs population evidenced by a correlation between OII emission line average intensity and the size of the z-band PSF. This effect most likely results from uncertainties in background subtraction. The detailed findings we present should be used to guide any observational systematics mitigation treatment for the clustering of the DESI LRGs sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improving neutrino-nuclei interaction models: Recommendations and case studies on Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle

Improving the modeling of neutrino-nuclei interactions using data-driven methods is crucial for high-precision neutrino oscillation experiments. This paper investigates Peelle’s Pertinent Puzzle (PPP) in the context of neutrino measurements, a longstanding challenge to fitting theoretical models to experimental data. Inconsistencies in data-model comparisons hinder efforts to enhance the accuracy and reliability of model predictions. We analyze various sources contributing to these inconsistencies and propose strategies to address them, supported by practical case studies. We advocate for incorporating model fitting exercises as a standard practice in cross section publications to enhance the robustness of results. We use a common analysis framework to explore PPP-related challenges with MicroBooNE and T2K data in an unified manner. Our findings offer valuable insights for improving the accuracy and reliability of neutrino-nuclei interaction models, particularly by systematically tuning models using data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating event-shape methods in the search for the chiral magnetic effect in relativistic heavy ion collisions

The chiral magnetic effect (CME) is a phenomenon in which electric charge is separated by a strong magnetic field from local domains of chirality imbalance and parity violation in quantum chromodynamics. The CME-sensitive observable, the charge-dependent three-point azimuthal correlator Δ⁢𝛾 , is contaminated by a major physics background proportional to the particle's elliptic flow anisotropy 𝑣 2 . Event-shape engineering (ESE) binning events in dynamical fluctuations of 𝑣 2 and event-shape selection (ESS) binning events in statistical fluctuations of 𝑣 2 are two methods to search for the CME by projecting Δ⁢𝛾 to the measured anisotropy 𝑣 2 = 0 intercept. Here, we conduct a systematic study of these two methods using physics models as well as toy model simulations. It is observed that the ESE method fulfills the general premise of measuring the CME but is statistically hungry. It is found that the intercept from the ESS method depends on the details of the event content, such as the mixtures of background-contributing sources, because of statistical fluctuations of intertwining variables used in the method, and is thus not practically useful to measure the CME.

Relativistic heavy-ion collisions↗

DOE OSTI2022

Utilizing cosmic-ray positron and electron observations to probe the averaged properties of Milky Way pulsars

Pulsars have long been studied in the electromagnetic spectrum. Their environments are rich in high-energy cosmic-ray electrons and positrons likely enriching the interstellar medium with such particles. In this work we use recent cosmic-ray observations from the AMS-02, CALET and DAMPE collaborations to study the averaged properties of the local Milky Way pulsar population. We perform simulations of the local Milky Way pulsar population, for interstellar medium assumptions in agreement with a range of cosmic-ray nuclei measurements. Each such simulation contains $\sim 10^{4}$ pulsars of unique age, location, initial spin-down power and cosmic-ray electron/positron spectra. We produce more than $7 \times 10^3$ such Milky Way pulsar simulations. Further, we account for and study i) the pulsars' birth rates and the stochastic nature of their birth, ii) their initial spin-down power distribution, iii) their time evolution in terms of their braking index and characteristic spin-down timescale, iv) the fraction of spin-down power going to cosmic-ray electrons and positrons and v) their propagation through the interstellar medium and the Heliosphere. We find that pulsars of ages $\sim 10^{5}-10^{7}$ yr, have a braking index that on average has to be 3 or larger. Given that electromagnetic spectrum observations of young pulsars find braking indices lower than 3, our work provides strong hints that pulsars' braking index increases on average as they age, allowing them to retain some of their rotational energy. Moreover, we find that pulsars have relatively uniform properties as sources of cosmic-ray electrons and positrons in terms of the spectra they produce and likely release $O(10\%)$ of their rotational energy to cosmic rays in the ISM. Finally, we find at $\simeq$12 GeV positrons a spectral feature that suggests a new subpopulation of positron sources contributing at these energies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool; a tool to screen options for reducing nutrient loads while minimizing cost

Abstract Excess loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to river networks causes environmental harm, but reducing loads from large river basins is difficult and expensive. We developed a new tool, the River Basin Export Reduction Optimization Support Tool (RBEROST) to identify the least‐cost combinations of management practices that will reduce nutrient loading to target levels in downstream and mid‐network waterbodies. We demonstrate the utility of the tool in a case study in the Upper Connecticut River Basin in New England, USA. The total project cost of optimized lowest‐cost plans ranged from $18.0 million to $41.0 million per year over 15 years depending on user specifications. Plans include both point source and non‐point source management practices, and most costs are associated with urban stormwater practices. Adding a 2% margin of safety to loading targets improved the estimated probability of success from 37.5% to 99%. The large spatial scale of RBEROST, and the consideration of both point and non‐point source contributions of nutrients, make it well suited as an initial screening tool in watershed planning.

Chamberlin, Catherine↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stable isotopes of carbon dioxide (CO2), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), water and concentrations of greenhouse gases in a mountainous watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado)

Temperature and precipitation variability in response to climate change affects water cycling of watersheds and can potentially impact water quality, water availability, elemental and molecular fluxes, and biogeochemical processes. Here we report the measurements of light stable isotopes and greenhouse gases analysis to a large multidisciplinary project addressing watershed function. Water hydrogen (H) and oxygen (O) stable isotopes of snow and water saturated soil were measured to constrain source contributions to groundwater and streamflow. In an effort to better constrain existing nitrogen and carbon cycling models in high-altitude ecosystems, carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) greenhouse gases concentrations and stable isotope signatures of CO2, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and water were measured. This dataset includes one CSV file and one Excel file containing data including stable isotopes of carbon dioxide (CO2), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), water and concentrations of greenhouse gases. The CSV and Excel files contain the same information/data but have included both versions for accessibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observations of ozone, acyl peroxy nitrates, and their precursors during summer 2019 at Carlsbad Caverns National Park, New Mexico

Carlsbad Caverns National Park (CAVE) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is adjacent to the Permian Basin, one of the most productive oil and natural gas (O&G) production regions in the United States. Since 2018, ozone (O 3 ) at CAVE has frequently exceeded the 70 ppbv 8-hour National Ambient Air Quality Standard. We examine the influence of regional emissions on O 3 formation using observations of O 3 , nitrogen oxides (NO x = NO + NO 2 ), a suite of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), and peroxypropionyl nitrate (PPN). Elevated O 3 and its precursors are observed when the wind is from the southeast, the direction of the Permian Basin. We identify 13 days during the July 25 to September 5, 2019 study period when the maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) O 3 exceeded 65 ppbv; MDA8 O 3 exceeded 70 ppbv on 5 of these days. The results of a positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis are used to identify and attribute source contributions of VOCs and NO x . On days when the winds are from the southeast, there are larger contributions from factors associated with primary O&G emissions; and, on high O 3 days, there is more contribution from factors associated with secondary photochemical processing of O&G emissions. The observed ratio of VOCs to NO x is consistently high throughout the study period, consistent with NO x -limited O 3 production. Finally, all high O 3 days coincide with elevated acyl peroxy nitrate abundances with PPN to PAN ratios > 0.15 ppbv ppbv -1 indicating that anthropogenic VOC precursors, and often alkanes specifically, dominate the photochemistry. Implications: The results above strongly indicate NO x -sensitive photochemistry at Carlsbad Caverns National Park indicating that reductions in NO x emissions should drive reductions in O 3 . However, the NO x -sensitivity is largely driven by emissions of NO x into a VOC-rich environment, and a high PPN:PAN ratio and its relationship to O 3 indicate substantial influence from alkanes in the regional photochemistry. Thus, simultaneous reductions in emissions of NO x and non-methane VOCs from the oil and gas sector should be considered for reducing O 3 at Carlsbad Caverns National Park. Reductions in non-methane VOCs will have the added benefit of reducing formation of other secondary pollutants and air toxics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evolve CAPP Final Report

The Evolve Central Appalachia (Evolve CAPP) project is investigating the rare earth and critical mineral resource potential of the Central Appalachian basin, spanning Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. This initiative aims to advance clean energy technologies, strengthen sustainable industries critical to national security, and foster economic growth through downstream value-added industries. Innovative policy incentives, stakeholder collaboration, and responsible sourcing practices are identified as pivotal to overcoming barriers. The project seeks to align environmental stewardship with economic imperatives. These efforts aim to position the Central Appalachian region as a leader in responsible critical mineral sourcing, contributing to a resilient, secure, and future-ready supply chain for critical minerals.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydrodynamics and Survivability during Post-main-sequence Planetary Engulfment

The engulfment of substellar bodies (SBs), such as brown dwarfs and planets, by giant stars is a possible explanation for rapidly rotating giants, lithium-rich giants, and the presence of SBs in close orbits around subdwarfs and white dwarfs. We perform three-dimensional hydrodynamical simulations of the flow in the vicinity of an engulfed SB. We model the SB as a rigid body with a reflective surface because it cannot accrete. This reflective boundary changes the flow morphology to resemble that of engulfed compact objects with outflows. We measure the drag coefficients for the ram-pressure and gravitational drag forces acting on the SB, and use them to integrate its trajectory inside the star. We find that engulfment can increase the luminosity of a 1 M ⊙ star by up to a few orders of magnitude. The time for the star to return to its original luminosity is up to a few thousand years when the star has evolved to ≈10 R ⊙ and up to a few decades at the tip of the red giant branch (RGB). No SBs can eject the envelope of a 1 M ⊙ star before it evolves to ≈10 R ⊙ if the orbit of the SB is the only energy source contributing to the ejection. In contrast, SBs as small as ≈10 MJup can eject the envelope at the tip of the RGB. The numerical framework we introduce here can be used to study planetary engulfment in a simplified setting that captures the physics of the flow at the scale of the SB.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗