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International Space Station Lithium-Ion Main Battery Thermal Runaway Propagation Test

In 2010, the ISS Program began the development of Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries to replace the aging Ni-H2 batteries on the primary Electric Power System (EPS). After the Boeing 787 Li-Ion battery fires, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) Power Technical Discipline Team was tasked by ISS to investigate the possibility of Thermal Runaway Propagation (TRP) in all Li-Ion batteries used on the ISS. As part of that investigation, NESC funded a TRP test of an ISS EPS non-flight Li-Ion battery. The test was performed at NASA White Sands Test Facility in October 2016. This paper will discuss the work leading up to the test, the design of the test article, and the test results.

International Space Statio

Space Station battery system design and development

The Space Station Electric Power System will rely on nickel-hydrogen batteries in its photovoltaic power subsystem for energy storage to support eclipse and contingency operations. These 81-Ah batteries will be designed for a 5-year life capability and are configured as orbital replaceable units (ORUs), permitting replacement of worn-out batteries over the anticipated 30-year Station life. This paper describes the baseline design and the development plans for the battery assemblies, the battery ORUs and the battery system. Key elements reviewed are the cells, mechanical and thermal design of the assembly, the ORU approach and interfaces, and the electrical design of the battery system. The anticipated operational approach is discussed, covering expected performance as well as the processor-controlled charge management and discharge load allocation techniques. Development plans cover verification of materials, cells, assemblies and ORUs, as well as system-level test and analyses.

Haas, R. J.

Investigating Laser Beam Welding as an In-Space Joining Technique via Thermal Vacuum and Microgravity and Vacuum Experiments

In-space joining technologies are crucial for stimulating an in-space economy and for enabling sustained space exploration by in-space manufacturing and repair of metallic structures. Compared to brazing or soldering, in-space welding (ISW) can provide highly hermetic, strong, and complex joints, potentially without introducing additional material. However, the influence of extreme temperatures, reduced pressure, and reduced gravity on ISW is not yet fully elucidated. Several efforts at NASA are investigating laser beam welding (LBW) as a joining and repair method in both thermal vacuum (TVAC) and combined vacuum & reduced gravity environments. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) shepherded several ISW projects in its past, including the 1973 electron beam welding on Skylab, the 1989 low-power LBW on parabolic flights, and the unflown 1990s-era In-Space Welding Experiment. Recent parabolic flights and 3 degree-of-freedom ground testing build upon this heritage. A collaboration with the Ohio State University using NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) hardware retrofitted for LBW achieved the first high-powered laser welds under vacuum and low gravity and developed a workforce capable developing such experimental hardware. A ground testing campaign at the MSFC Flat Floor simulated fit-up and welding representative of ISW in 3 degrees of freedom to emulate microgravity effects on inertial systems. One ongoing effort is a NASA Early Career Initiative project – Lunar Assembly and Servicing by Autonomous Robotics (LASAR). Ruggedized LBW components were developed by an external partner for use in TVAC. A TVAC-rated robotic arm was procured by MSFC and used in the first known robotic laser weld where all components save the laser generator were under vacuum. NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) is advancing supervised autonomy of ISW. NASA LaRC continues to adapt their unique snowflake joint geometry, suitable for connecting segments in trusses and other structures, to LBW. Upcoming TVAC campaigns will focus on testing extreme temperatures, proving out autonomous operations, and demonstrating weld repair. Weld inspection will occur via a non-contact nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique – electromagnetic acoustic transduction (EMAT). Another ongoing effort based at MSFC is the DISCMAN -- DIsk-Shaped Configurable and Modular vAcuum uNit – which seeks to development a compact, modular payload that can provide a vacuum environment while in a reduced gravity condition. This payload could support multiple in-space manufacturing developmental efforts, with the first demonstration technology being LBW. Currently, the design is targeting operations in the pressurized volume of a space station, but the payload could readily be adapted to other flight platforms such as parabolic or even suborbital vehicles. LASAR elucidates the effects of temperature and vacuum on LBW while DISCMAN probes those of vacuum and gravity. Through these complementary efforts, NASA is addressing the primary challenges of ISW across the space environment while simultaneously developing and maturing technologies including robotic systems and inspection methodologies for future practical implementation on the Moon and beyond. This approach is timely, as upcoming missions requiring sustained human presence in space will depend on reliable ISW capabilities to create robust metallic joints currently unproven in the space environment and to perform repairs in situ .

hypogravity

Interactions Between the Space Station and the Environment: A Preliminary Assessment of EMI

A review of the interactions between proposed Space Station systems/payloads and the environment that contribute to electromagnetic interference was performed. Seven prime sources of interference have been identified. These are: The Space Station power system; active experiments such as beam injection; ASTROMAG; ram and wake density gradients; pick up ions produced by vented or offgassed clouds; waves produced by current loops that include the plasma and structure; arcing from high voltage solar arrays (or possible ESD in polar orbit). This review indicates that: minimizing leakage current from the 20 kHz power system to the structure; keeping the surfaces of the Space Station structure, arrays, and radiators nonconducting; minimizing venting of payloads or systems to non-operational periods; careful placement of payloads sensitive to magnetic field perturbations or wake noise; and designing an operational timeline compatible with experiment requirement are the most effective means of minimizing the effects of this interference. High degrees of uncertainty exist in the estimates of magnitudes of gas emission induced EMI, radiation of 20 kHz and harmonics, ASTROMAG induced interference, and arc threshold/frequency of the solar array. These processes demand further attention so that mitigation efforts are properly calibrated.

G B Murphy

User-Centric Communication With Aerial Network for 6G: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Meeting the diverse needs of user verticals requires innovative cellular architectures that can offer additional degrees of freedom to provide on-demand services. The terrestrial user-centric radio access network (UC-RAN) stands out as an excellent choice for this purpose. However, a drawback of UC-RAN is its tendency to prioritize high-priority verticals, often resulting in a subpar quality of experience for low-priority verticals. This issue is particularly exacerbated in hotspot areas. Here, to address this problem, we introduce an aerial network integrated with terrestrial UC-RAN to provide coverage to users which are not served by the terrestrial network. Furthermore, we analyze the impact of key configuration and optimization parameters (COPs), such as location, transmit power, altitude, and beamwidth of aerial base stations (ABSs) on system key performance indicators (KPIs), such as coverage, latency satisfaction, average spectral efficiency, and energy efficiency. We formulate a robust multiobjective function to maximize these KPIs without biasing toward any specific KPI(s). Finally, we propose a deep reinforcement learning optimization framework based on the state-of-the-art soft actor-critic algorithm to control ABS COPs and optimize system KPIs. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed optimization framework can converge to near-optimal solutions derived from the pseudo brute force in a few thousand epochs.

6G

International Space Station Lithium-Ion Battery

The International Space Station (ISS) primary Electric Power System (EPS) currently uses Nickel-Hydrogen (Ni-H2) batteries to store electrical energy. The electricity for the space station is generated by its solar arrays, which charge batteries during insolation for subsequent discharge during eclipse. The Ni-H2 batteries are designed to operate at a 35 depth of discharge (DOD) maximum during normal operation in a Low Earth Orbit. Since the oldest of the 48 Ni-H2 battery Orbital Replacement Units (ORUs) has been cycling since September 2006, these batteries are now approaching their end of useful life. In 2010, the ISS Program began the development of Lithium-Ion (Li-Ion) batteries to replace the Ni-H2 batteries and concurrently funded a Li-Ion ORU and cell life testing project. When deployed, they will be the largest Li-Ion batteries ever utilized for a human-rated spacecraft. This paper will include an overview of the ISS Li-Ion battery system architecture, the Li-Ion battery design and development, controls to limit potential hazards from the batteries, and the status of the Li-Ion cell and ORU life cycle testing.

battery

CLDP/ISS Glovebox Technical Interchange Meeting

This presentation is designed to provide a high-level overview of the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG) and the Life Sciences Glovebox (LSG) facilities onboard the International Space Station. In addition, it provides metrics and lessons-learned information intended for the Commercial Low-Earth Orbit Development Program (CLDP) Partners.

glovebox

Advanced nickel-hydrogen spacecraft battery development

Eagle-Picher currently has several advanced nickel-hydrogen (NiH2) cell component and battery designs under development including common pressure vessel (CPV), single pressure vessel (SPV), and dependent pressure vessel (DPV) designs. A CPV NiH2 battery, utilizing low-cost 64 mm (2.5 in.) cell diameter technology, has been designed and built for multiple smallsat programs, including the TUBSAT B spacecraft which is currently scheduled (24 Nov. 93) for launch aboard a Russian Proton rocket. An advanced 90 mm (3.5 in.) NiH2 cell design is currently being manufactured for the Space Station Freedom program. Prototype 254 mm (10 in.) diameter SPV batteries are currently under construction and initial boilerplate testing has shown excellent results. NiH2 cycle life testing is being continued at Eagle-Picher and IPV cells have currently completed more than 89,000 accelerated LEO cycles at 15% DOD, 49,000 real-time LEO cycles at 30 percent DOD, 37,800 cycles under a real-time LEO profile, 30 eclipse seasons in accelerated GEO, and 6 eclipse seasons in real-time GEO testing at 75 percent DOD maximum. Nickel-metal hydride battery development is continuing for both aerospace and electric vehicle applications. Eagle-Picher has also developed an extensive range of battery evaluation, test, and analysis (BETA) measurement and control equipment and software, based on Hewlett-Packard computerized data acquisition/control hardware.

Coates, Dwaine K.

Spacecraft Antenna Pointing

In examining the characteristic inaccuracies of a pre-programmed high-gain antenna pointing system, the effects of spacecraft attitude errors, as embodied in pitch, yaw and roll limit cycle activity, are of major concern. If the pointing accuracy requirements for a particular mission allow the use of a single degree of freedom pointing system, it is doubtful whether a method of correcting antenna position for spacecraft attitude errors would be worthwhile. This is because the pointing error due to fitting a plane curve to a three-dimensional trajectory would probably be at least as large as the additional pointing errors due to attitude drift within the deadbands. Further, trying to correct pointing for pitch, yaw, and roll drifts by adjusting a single hinge angle is relatively ineffective.

ERROR SIGNAL

Microbiological Characterization and Concerns of the International Space Station Internal Active Thermal Control System

Since January 1999, the chemical the International Space Station Thermal Control System (IATCS) and microbial state of (ISS) Internal Active fluid has been monitored by analysis of samples returned to Earth. Key chemical parameters have changed over time, including a drop in pH from the specified 9.5 +/- 0.5 ta = 58.4, an increase in the level of total inorganic carbon (TIC), total organic carbon (TOC) and dissolved nickel (Ni) in the fluid, and a decrease in the phosphate (PO,) level. In addition, silver (AS) ion levels in the fluid decreased rapidly as Ag deposited on internal metallic surfaces of the system. The lack of available Ag ions coupled with changes in the fluid chemistry has resulted in a favorable environment for microbial growth. Counts of heterotrophic bacteria have increased from less than 10 colony-forming units (CFUs)/l00 mL to l0(exp 6) to l0(exp 7) CFUs/100 mL. The increase of the microbial population is of concern because uncontrolled microbiological growth in the IATCS can contribute to deterioration in the performance of critical components within the system and potentially impact human health if opportunistic pathogens become established and escape into the cabin atmosphere. Micro-organisms can potentially degrade the coolant chemistry; attach to surfaces and form biofilms; lead to biofouling of filters, tubing, and pumps; decrease flow rates; reduce heat transfer; initiate and accelerate corrosion; and enhance mineral scale formation. The micro- biological data from the ISS IATCS fluid, and approaches to addressing the concerns, are summarized in this paper.

Monsi C Roman

Introduction to Radiation Issues for International Space Station Extravehicular Activities: Chapter 1

The International Space Station (ISS) provides significant challenges for radiation protection of the crew due to a combination of circumstances including: the extended duration of missions for many crewmembers, the exceptionally dynamic nature of the radiation environment in ISS orbit, and the necessity for numerous planned extravehicular activities (EVA) for station construction and maintenance. Radiation protection requires accurate radiation dose measurements and precise risk modeling of the transmission of high fluxes of energetic electrons and protons through the relatively thin shielding provided by the space suits worn during EVA. Experiments and analyses have been performed due to the necessity to assure complete radiation safety for the EVA crew and thereby ensure mission success. The detailed characterization described of the material and topological properties of the ISS space suits can be used as a basis for design of space suits used in future exploration missions. In radiation protection practices, risk from exposure to ionizing radiation is determined analytically by the level of exposure, the detrimental quality of the radiation field, the inherent radiosensitivity of the tissues or organs irradiated, and the age and gender of the person at the time of exposure. During low Earth orbit (LEO) EVA, the relatively high fluxes of low-energy electrons and protons lead to large variations in exposure of the skin, lens of the eye, and tissues in other shallow anatomical locations. The technical papers in this publication describe a number of ground-based experiments that precisely measure the thickness of the NASA extravehicular mobility unit (EMU) and Russian Zvezda Orlan-M suits using medical computerized tomography (CT) X-ray analysis, and particle accelerator experiments that measure the minimum kinetic energy required by electrons and photons to penetrate major components of the suits. These studies provide information necessary for improving the understanding of the current ISS space suits and provide insights into improved approaches for the design of future suits. This chapter begins with a summary of the dynamic ionizing radiation environment in LEO space and introduces the concepts and quantities used to quantify exposure to space radiation in LEO. The space suits used for EVA and the experimental partial human phantom are described. Subsequent chapters report results from measured charged particle fields before and after incident protons and secondary particles are transported through the space suits and into organs and tissues.

M R Shavers

Shuttle-Mir [Мир-Шаттл] Supplement

This is a companion to an illustrated history book with the same title. This set of electronic files includes the full text and images in the book, as well as additional material. Interviews, photographs, and biographies of the U.S. Astronauts, cosmonauts, and team members for the Shuttle-Mir Program are available. STS Mission Summaries for each mission involved can be viewed, including launch and landing details, crew lists, and mission highlights. Photographs and videos from each mission are included, as well as diagrams of different spacecraft, and computer-generated animations of the Mir deorbit, collision, and flyaround. Additional documents include mission status reports, published documents, news releases, personal letters, and oral histories. The experiments carried out on Mir are described, highlighting combustion and fluid physics research, life in microgravity, and research of the development of the solar system. The focus on improving space technology and planning for the International Space Station is explained. The main features of the book itself include: (1) Training and Operations; (2) Long Duration Psychology; (3) Bilingual Blues; and (4) Earth Observations.

Astronautics

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY

Outgassing Characterization of Common Trash Items for Disposal By Nanoracks Airlock on the International Space Station

The arrival of the Nanoracks Airlock to the International Space Station (ISS) has provided the ISS program the capability to dispose of common trash items. The concept of operations involved the crew bagging up those items into a trash bag and then utilizing the robotic arm and the airlock to jettison the trash bag. Because of the unknown thermal vacuum stability of some of the items, a molecular contamination concern was raised by the ISS program as the trash is exposed to vacuum upon the evacuation of air from the airlock and the robotic arm moving the airlock to its jettison location. In order to characterize the representative outgassing rates for ISS trash, thermal vacuum testing was performed at White Sands Test Facility. Trash was sorted into a “lower” outgassing bag and a “mixed” bag. The “mixed” trash bag contained more items that were suspected to be not vacuum stable. Load cells were chosen as the primary means for measuring mass loss. A sharp decay in the outgassing rate was observed in the first 30 minutes followed by a slower decay. As expected, the “mixed” bag lost more mass. While Quartz Crystal Microbalances (QCMs) are often utilized to measure long term outgassing rates and the sticking coefficients of contaminants at different operating temperatures for vacuum stable materials, these measurements proved difficult due to the amount and the inclusion of materials with suspect thermal vacuum stability. Because of high rates of material outgassing, the facility was unable to maintain the CQCM temperature setpoint of 80 K QCMs.. The QCMs operating at the warmer temperatures also saturated on occasion due to high levels of condensed matter. Though testing was able to confirm high risk of outgassing contamination for the program, true sticking coefficients could not be determined, available measurements are provided herein.

Alvin Y Huang

Erosion Results of the MISSE 9-15 Polymers and Composites Experiment 1-4 (PCE 1-4)

Polymers and other oxidizable materials on the exterior of spacecraft in the low Earth orbit (LEO) space environment can be eroded from reaction with atomic oxygen (AO). Therefore, in order to design durable spacecraft it is important to know the extent of erosion that will occur during a mission. This can be determined by knowing the LEO AO erosion yield, E y (volume loss per incident oxygen atom), of materials susceptible to AO reaction. In addition, recent flight experiments have shown that the AO E y can vary with the AO fluence and/or solar exposure. Therefore, obtaining AO E y data for materials flown on various spaceflight missions is important. NASA Glenn Research Center has flown numerous experiments as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) missions on the exterior of the International Space Station (ISS) to characterize the LEO E y of polymers, composites, protective coatings, and other spacecraft materials. Recently, four Glenn experiments with 365 flight (F) samples were flown on ISS’s MISSE-Flight Facility (MISSE-FF). These experiments are the Polymers and Composites Experiment-1 (PCE-1) flown as part of the MISSE-9 mission, the PCE-2 flown as part of the MISSE-10 mission, the PCE-3 flown as part of the MISSE-12 and MISSE-15 missions, and the PCE-4 flown as part of the MISSE-13 mission. Although each experiment had numerous sample objectives, the primary objective was to determine the LEO AO E y of various spacecraft materials as a function of solar irradiation and AO fluence. This paper provides a summary of the erosion data for the PCE 1-4 AO E y samples. The AO E y for 150 samples flown in either the LEO ram, wake, zenith or nadir directions are provided. The AO ram fluence varied from 2.97×10 20 atoms/cm 2 after 0.89 years of direct space exposure (with relatively high levels of Si contamination) on MISSE 12 to 3.93×10 20 atoms/cm 2 after 1.17 years of direct space exposure on MISSE-10. The ram AO E y values for uncoated polymers range from 3.81×10 –25 cm 3 /atom for polytetrafluoroethylene (M9R-C20 F) exposed to an AO fluence of 3.44×10 20 atoms/cm 2 on MISSE-9 to 4.43×10 –23 cm 3 /atom for AO etched low density polyimide aerogel (M12R-C21 F) exposed to an AO fluence of 2.97×10 21 atoms/cm 2 on MISSE-12. Because of the low AO fluence and relatively high Si contamination, a number of PCE-3 wake samples experienced mass gain. Thus, AO E y values are not provided for these samples. Although there are calculated AO E y values for the zenith, wake and nadir samples, the ram AO E y for a particular material is a more reliable value in terms of AO exposure because the zenith, wake and nadir directions were exposed to either no or very little AO fluence and thus other space environmental factors (i.e. vacuum, thermal extremes and thermal cycling, and/or various types of radiation) are responsible for the mass loss.

Erosion yield

General Purpose Data-Driven System Monitoring for Space Operations

Modern space propulsion and exploration system designs are becoming increasingly sophisticated and complex. Determining the health state of these systems using traditional methods is becoming more difficult as the number of sensors and component interactions grows. Data-driven monitoring techniques have been developed to address these issues by analyzing system operations data to automatically characterize normal system behavior. The Inductive Monitoring System (IMS) is a data-driven system health monitoring software tool that has been successfully applied to several aerospace applications. IMS uses a data mining technique called clustering to analyze archived system data and characterize normal interactions between parameters. This characterization, or model, of nominal operation is stored in a knowledge base that can be used for real-time system monitoring or for analysis of archived events. Ongoing and developing IMS space operations applications include International Space Station flight control, satellite vehicle system health management, launch vehicle ground operations, and fleet supportability. As a common thread of discussion this paper will employ the evolution of the IMS data-driven technique as related to several Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) elements. Thematically, the projects listed will be used as case studies. The maturation of IMS via projects where it has been deployed, or is currently being integrated to aid in fault detection will be described. The paper will also explain how IMS can be used to complement a suite of other ISHM tools, providing initial fault detection support for diagnosis and recovery.

Satellites

Does the International Space Station Leak DNA? Preliminary Results from the ISS External Microorganisms Payload

Existing crewed spacecraft like the ISS (International Space Station) leak by design. The ISS routinely releases gas to maintain life support systems and when astronauts exit the station to perform space walks. The chemical component of this leakage is well characterized, but the biological components are not. The ISS is not subject to planetary protection requirements, but planned missions to Mars will use similar systems and will be subject to planetary protection requirements. If detectable microorganisms are escaping through vents and or airlocks we may need to redesign our crewed habitats to minimize this type of contamination. To test the hypothesis that microorganisms from inside ISS are detectable on exterior surfaces an astronaut used the ISS External Microorganisms sampling kit (Rucker et al. 2018) to sample exterior surfaces of the ISS during an EVA (Extra Vehicular Activity) in January of 2025. These samples were returned to Earth for DNA extraction and sequencing. We successfully, extracted and sequenced bacterial, fungal and viral DNA from these samples that was not present in the negative controls. These results should help NASA refine the planetary protection requirements for crewed missions. Methods: The samples were collected using sterile, DNA free, buccal swabs (23 mm. diameter) housed in custom canisters. Each canister uses a 0.2 μm Teflon filter to maintain sterility as the caddy, holding 8 swabs moves in and out of vacuum. The astronaut sampled the: 1) airlock vestibule, 2) airlock thermal cover, 3) a gap in the micrometeorite shielding near the airlock, 4) a handrail near the airlock, 5) the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly vent, and 6) the Vacuum Exhaust System vent. The seventh swab was exposed to vacuum during the EVA without touching it to a surface. The eighth swab, a negative control, was not opened until the caddy returned to Earth. DNA was extracted from the swabs using a QIamp UCP Pathogen kit and prepared for sequencing on an Aviti (Element Biosciences) sequencer (Arslan et al. 2024). The resulting sequences were analyzed using the EDGE Bioinformatics platform (Li et al. 2017). The sequences were analyzed individually using tools like BLAST, GOTTCHA2, Kraken2, and PanGIA. The data were also assembled into metagenome assembled genomes) using tools like CONCOCT, MaxBin2 and MetaBAT2. Results: We successfully extracted and sequenced bacterial, archaeal, fungal and viral DNA from all seven samples. The handrail swab had the lowest number of reads (768,651) and the airlock thermal cover had the highest number of reads (8,819,230). These samples contain DNA from human associated bacteria (e.g. Crynebacterium riegelii ), fungi (.e.g. Penicillium rubens ), and viruses (e.g Alphapapillomavirus ). Conclusion: Preliminary interpretation suggest that the airlock and the space suits themselves are the largest sources of contaminant DNA. Most if not all of the DNA is from organisms known to be present inside the ISS. Vents attached to life support systems may be a lesser source of biological contamination. Further analysis should help NASA address planetary protection knowledge gaps for crewed missions.

Aaron B Regberg

Anticipating Optical Availability in Hybrid RF/FSO Links Using RF Beacons and Deep Learning

Radiofrequency (RF) communications offer reliable but low data rates and energy-inefficient satellite links, while free-space optical (FSO) promises high bandwidth but struggles with disturbances imposed by atmospheric effects. A hybrid RF/FSO architecture aims to achieve optimal reliability along with high data rates for space communications. Accurate prediction of dynamic ground-to-satellite FSO link availability is critical for routing decisions in low-earth orbit constellations. In this paper, we propose a system leveraging ubiquitous RF links to proactively forecast FSO link degradation prior to signal drops below threshold levels. This enables pre-calculation of rerouting to maximally maintain high data rate FSO links throughout the duration of weather effects. We implement a supervised learning model to anticipate FSO attenuation based on the analysis of RF patterns. Through the simulation of a dense lower earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a simulated satellite network, highlighting the balance between predictive accuracy and prediction duration. An emulated cloud attenuation model is proposed to provide insight into the temporal profiles of RF signals and their correlation to FSO channel dynamics. Our investigation sheds light on the trade-offs between prediction horizon and accuracy arising from RF beacon numbers and proximity.

FSO availability