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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

Parametric Study of Panel PCM–Air Heat Exchanger Designs

Heat exchangers, devices for the transfer of heat between two or more working fluids, are extensively used in cooling applications and heating applications. Heat exchangers in buildings are typically components of space-conditioning systems, as well as of water-heating applications. Heat exchangers are also sometimes used in applications that require storage and release of energy at specific times. Phase change materials (PCMs) enhance these heat-exchange processes, given their ability to melt and solidify at a fixed range of temperatures, absorbing or releasing significant amounts of latent heat. Five different configurations of PCM–air heat exchangers for thermal control in buildings are analyzed in this work. The heat exchangers were fitted with PCM encapsulated in plastic and composite pouches of various shapes, and packaged in stackable panel layers. Three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of coupled incompressible fluid and conjugate heat transfer were performed on the designs. The phase change process was numerically modelled using the apparent heat capacity method. Steady-state CFD simulations provided quantification of pressure drop as a function of air flow velocity. Transient simulation results describe the thermal evolution of PCM in the pouches, helping to determine the best performing configuration with respect to total thermal charging time.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Comparative performance assessment of air-source and ground-source heat pumps using CO₂ and R-410A with water well integration: A simulation study

This study investigates the performance and feasibility of heat pump systems for residential space heating in cold climates, with a particular focus on ground source heat pumps (GSHPs) with water wells. Four configurations are modeled and compared, a CO 2 air-source heat pump (ASHP), an R-410A ASHP, a CO 2 GSHP with water well integration, and an R-410A ground-source heat pump with water well integration. System simulations are conducted at both equipment and whole-building levels, followed by a nationwide analysis across ten representative cities using EnergyPlus. Results show that water-well-coupled GSHPs maintain approximately 87 % of their efficiency and 85.5 % of heating capacity as ambient temperature drops from 47 °F/8.3 °C to −15 °F/-26.1 °C, whereas ASHPs retain only 55 % efficiency and 44.5 % capacity. R-410A systems achieve higher efficiency, while CO 2 systems provide significant environmental advantages, including reduced risks of groundwater contamination from refrigerant leakage. On average, the CO 2 GSHPs deliver 35–45 % heating energy savings relative to ASHPs and demonstrate strong potential as a replacement for gas furnaces in cold climates. This work represents a systematic comparative assessment of CO 2 and R-410A air-source and ground-source heat pumps with water well integration. In conclusion, the findings highlight the technical viability, environmental benefits and deployment potential of CO 2 GSHPs, offering a pathway toward efficient and sustainable residential heating solutions in diverse U.S. climates.

CO 2 GSHP↗

Combined Heat and Power Technology Fact Sheet Series: District Energy

This fact sheet provides an overview of district energy systems, which are characterized by one or more central plants producing hot water, steam, and/or chilled water, which then flows through a network of insulated pipes to provide hot water, space heating, and/or air conditioning for nearby buildings. District energy systems serve a variety of end-use markets, including downtowns (central business districts), college and university campuses, hospitals and healthcare facilities, airports, military bases, and industrial complexes. By combining loads for multiple buildings, district energy systems create economies of scale that help reduce energy costs and enable the use of high-efficiency technologies such as combined heat and power (CHP).

Combined Heat and Power, CHP, District Energy, Tec↗

Development and field demonstration of residential air source integrated heat pump using a three-stage compressor

To promote decarbonization and all electrification at residential sectors, it is necessary to use air source heat pumps (ASHPs) to replace natural gas for space heating and water heating. ASHPs are widely utilized for residential space cooling, heating, and water heating due to their simplicity and cost-effectiveness. However, their performance can be compromised in cold climates, where they may experience reduced heating capacity. A multi-functional heat pump, using a single compressor, to meet all home space conditioning and water heating demands, is an emerging technology. To address this limitation, we have developed and demonstrated an air source integrated heat pump to fulfill comprehensive home comfort requirements. This system employs a three-stage compressor and a single set of heat exchangers and valves, optimizing functionality while minimizing costs. The performance of the developed system was rigorously evaluated in both laboratory and field settings. In laboratory conditions, the system achieved a Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio of 17.0 (average COP of 4.98) and a Heating Seasonal Performance Factor of 11.0 (3.22). Additionally, in its most efficient operational mode—combining space cooling and water heating—the unit attained a total energy efficiency exceeding 7.0 seasonal COP in the field and could heat a 189-liter tank of water in just 25 min. The field study corroborated the laboratory findings, validating the system’s performance in real-world conditions. Here, this integrated heat pump represents an ideal solution for decarbonizing homes in northern climates by providing efficient space heating and water heating, thereby replacing the need for natural gas.

Integrated heat pump↗

Microcanonical Kinetics of Water-Mediated Proton Transfer in 4ABAH + ·(H 2 O) n = 4–6 Clusters (ABA = Aminobenzoic Acid): A Model System for Size-Dependent Relaxation to Ergodic Behavior

Here, we leverage the unique properties of the 4ABAH + · (H 2 O) n clusters (ABA = 4-aminobenzoic acid, n = 4−6) to quantitatively address how a finite, isolated system evolves into an ergodic condition starting from localized arrangements in configuration space. This system adopts two distinct structural isomers in which water molecules cluster around the cationic centers of its two protomers with widely separated positive charge centers. These isomers arise from excess proton attachment to either the acid (O) or amino (N) group on opposite sides of the benzene ring. Both forms are captured and kinetically trapped using cryogenic ion methods and then selectively vibrationally excited through their mutually exclusive IR bands involving NH and OH stretching fundamentals. Because the IR excitation lies below the water binding energy, the system can evolve to explore slow, rare events that lead to the interconversion between the two isomers. The rates of these intracluster reactions are determined by using a pump−probe scheme involving ∼5 ns IR pump and UV probe lasers. The rates occur on the microsecond time scale, leading to steady state populations of the isomers, thus revealing the cluster size-dependent fractionation between the two species at microcanonical equilibrium. The steady state distributions are correlated with the expected trend in the cluster size-dependent reaction energetics, which are in turn consistent with changes in the relative densities of states of the two species. These results thus provide an unusually clear example in which complex, protic-solvent-mediated chemical transformations are captured within a finite system at a precisely determined internal energy.

Rana, Abhijit [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United S↗

Accelerating Optimal Integration of Energy Efficiency Strategies with Industrialized Modular Construction: Preprint

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Industrialized Construction Innovation team first introduced the Industrialized Construction Assessment Framework to achieve affordable, net-zero energy (NZE) modular multifamily buildings in the 2020 ACEEE paper "Integrating Energy Efficiency Strategies with Industrialized Construction for our Clean Energy Future." Since then, NREL has continued to drive the ambitious plan to accelerate optimal integration of energy efficiency strategies during industrialized construction with little or no additional cost, labor, and production time. This follow-on paper introduces the Energy in Modular (EMOD) buildings method and presents NREL's research efforts over the last two years in collaboration with industry, including affordable housing partners. NREL has developed an idealized NZE modular multifamily building design that incorporates five energy efficiency strategies well suited for industrialized construction in factories: (1) envelope thermal control, (2) envelope infiltration control, (3) mechanical, electrical, and plumbing systems, (4) smart controls, and (5) solar plus storage. This paper highlights results from leveraging design for manufacturing and assembly principles, testing, and validation pilots with factory partners; demonstrating pod prototypes in test stand at NREL; and performing simulations. Overall, these research efforts address barriers to whole-building system integration, such as poor installation quality of thermal and air barriers; lack of unitized systems for space conditioning, energy recovery and ventilation, and water heating; problematic on-site installation, commissioning, and configuration of controls; and lack of cost-effective integration for grid-friendly design and emerging technologies. Conclusively, the paper delineates next steps for future work with NREL's partners toward developing a transformational pathway for our clean energy future.

affordable housing↗

Hydronic Shell: An Affordable Solution for Multifamily Deep Energy Retrofit

Approximately 42% of multi-family buildings in the United States have do not have insulation as required by the building codes. Envelope retrofits of these buildings are needed to improve their thermal performance, provide thermal resilience, and enable a pathway to electrification of space heating systems. Hydronic shell (HS) is a retrofit technique where a stud wall layer is added to a masonry wall along with a convective coil and a fan coil unit fitted in the façade cavity which can provide both heating and cooling to the space. The HS system serves a dual purpose of 1) retrofitting the building envelope and 2) retrofitting the HVAC system and enabling electrification of space heating. The electrification of space heating is possible from the installation of a combination of hydronic system/fan coil unit system which uses a central heat pump as a source of heating water in the cavity between the existing wall and retrofit insulation layer. This study evaluates the performance of the HS system at varying outdoor conditions mimicked by a climate chamber and hot water supply temperature from a water bath. During the ramp-up period, the indoor chamber temperature could be increased from 66 ºF to 69.5 ºF within an hour using heating water at 120 ºF when the outdoor chamber temperature was at 0 ºF. When the indoor chamber temperature was maintained within a deadband, variation in cavity air temperature was mostly influenced by the duration when water was flowing through the cavity convector. It was seen from the testing that the hydronic system alone without use of fan in the system is able to maintain the space temperature at coldest outdoor condition used in the experiment (0 ºF) even at lowest hot water supply temperature chosen (90 ºF). During the ramp-down period, the fastest decline in temperature took 6.4 hours from temperature to drop from 69.6 ºF to 66 ºF which shows tremendous potential of thermal resilience and peak load shifting.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Assessment of Impacts on Electric End-Use Load Profile of a Typical Residential Building from a Ground Source Heat Pump Systems Integrated with Underground Thermal Energy Storage

Buildings are the primary users of electricity, and a considerable amount of electric energy consumed in residential and commercial buildings is for meeting thermal demands (e.g., space heating/cooling, water heating, etc.). Therefore, integrating thermal energy storage with a building’s energy system has the potential to reshape the electric load profile of the building and mitigate the mismatch between the renewable power supply and the thermal demands of buildings. A novel ground-source heat pump system (GSHP) integrated with underground thermal energy storage (UTES) has been developed to enable flexible electric demand at buildings while meeting their thermal demands with an energy-efficient GSHP system. This paper assessed the potential impacts of the proposed system on the peak electrical demand and annual electricity consumption in a typical residential building at various climate zones in the United States. The results show that by replacing the conventional HVAC system (air conditioner and natural gas furnace) with the UTES integrated GSHP system, summer peak electric demand can be reduced by 27% to 50% depending on the weather. Although the winter peak electrical demand could be increased by up to 70% if the proposed system replaces natural gas furnace, the existing electricity supply system for single-family homes in most regions of the United States have adequate capacity for the replacement. While eliminating the natural gas consumption for space heating, the proposed system consumes more electricity on an annual basis in heating-dominated regions. However, it consumes less electricity in cooling dominated regions. The resulting variance in annual electricity consumption in various climate zones is within 15% compared with the baseline system.

Shi, Liang↗

Non-Destructive, Three-Dimensional Imaging of Processes in the Rhizosphere Utilizing High Energy Photons

Soil structure, which can be described as the aggregation and distribution of pore spaces, regulates carbon, nutrient, and water cycling across the Earth system. Yet the inability to make quantitative, dynamic, in situ measurements of soil structure and rhizosphere carbon flow has prevented meaningful incorporation of soil structural processes into Earth System Models (ESMs). The key limitations are: (i) Lack of scale integration between micron-scale soil structure and ecosystem-scale models, (ii) Poor functional linkage between soil structural properties and biogeochemical processes, and (iii) Absence of dynamic 3D measurements of rhizosphere structural changes and carbon transformations. To address these challenges, we developed a new integrated positron emission tomography (PET) - microcomputed tomography (CT) imaging platform that enables the first 4D (spatial 3D and time), non-invasive, quantitative imaging of carbon allocation and rhizosphere structural dynamics in living plants and intact soils. The system combines: • Rhizo-PET (R-PET): a high-resolution positron emission tomography scanner optimized for 11 CO 2 tracing in plant roots. • a-Se micro-CT: a high-contrast, high-spatial resolution CT system based on amorphous selenium (a-Se) direct conversion technology, enabling micron-scale visualization of soil structure and root–soil interfaces. Together, these advances allow us to quantify how carbon exudates move, transform, and stabilize within the rhizosphere, directly informing missing processes in BER-relevant carbon cycle models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Resolving Mesoscale Convective Systems: Grid Spacing Sensitivity in the Tropics and Midlatitudes

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are a critical global water cycle component and drive extreme precipitation events in tropical and midlatitude regions. However, simulating deep convection remains challenging for modern numerical weather and climate models due to the complex interactions of processes from microscales to synoptic scales. Recent models with kilometer‐scale horizontal grid spacings offer notable improvements in simulating deep convection compared to coarser‐resolution models. Still, deficiencies in representing key physical processes, such as entrainment, lead to systematic biases. Additionally, evaluating model outputs using process‐oriented observational data remain difficult. This study presents an ensemble of MCS simulations with spanning the deep convective gray zone ( from 12 km to 125 m) in the Southern Great Plains of the U.S. and the Amazon Basin. Comparing these simulations with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) wind profiler observations, we find greater sensitivity in the Amazon Basin compared to the Great Plains. Convective drafts converge structurally at sub‐kilometer scales, but some deficiencies remain. In both regions, simulated up and downdrafts are too deep and extreme downdrafts are not strong enough. Furthermore, Amazonian updrafts are too strong. Overall, we observe higher sensitivity in the tropics, including an artificial buildup in vertical kinetic energy at scales of , suggesting a need for 250 m in this region. Nevertheless, bulk convergence—agreement of storm‐average statistics—is achievable with kilometer‐scale simulations within a 10% error margin with 1 km providing a good balance between accuracy and computational cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urea-to-Ammonia Conversion at Proteus mirabilis Modified Pt–Ni/BDD Electrodes

Efficient wastewater recycling technologies are essential for long-duration space missions and sustainable water management on Earth. Here, a bioelectrochemical system integrating Proteus mirabilis with a platinum–nickel-modified boron-doped diamond electrode (Pt–Ni/BDDE) for urea-to-ammonia conversion in synthetic urine is presented. Immobilized P. mirabilis catalyzes enzymatic ureolysis, converting urea into ammonia, which is subsequently oxidized electrochemically, and no direct electrochemical urea oxidation is observed. Cyclic voltammetry (CV) of P. mirabilis on Pt–Ni/BDDE in 0.1 M urea and synthetic urine revealed a broad anodic oxidation peak at approximately 0.55–0.75 V vs Ag/AgCl (sat. KCl), corresponding to ammonia oxidation. Control experiments using bare BDDE and Pt–Ni/BDDE in synthetic urine showed no oxidation peak, establishing that the bioelectrocatalytic response originates exclusively from the bioelectrode interface. Chronoamperometry studies revealed that immobilization potential and time critically influenced bacterial adhesion and electrochemical response, with optimal conditions yielding a maximum current density of 0.0055 mA·cm –2 . These quantitative results establish that microbial ureolysis can be efficiently coupled with advanced electrode materials for urea-to-ammonia conversion, offering a promising self-sustaining strategy for urine processing and water recovery in closed-loop life support systems.

Ammonia↗

From Theory to Practice: Feasibility Study of a Thermal Microgrid at a DoD Installation: Preprint

Advanced district thermal energy systems, also known as thermal microgrids, can electrify and decarbonize urban districts in a highly efficient way, but adoption of such systems, especially in the US, has been slow. Thermal microgrids use a network circulating water at near-ambient (60-80 degree F) (15- 25 degree C) temperatures, and water-source heat pumps at connected buildings to boost or lower the temperature for space conditioning and domestic hot water. Addressing challenges related to retrofits of existing buildings for integration with such systems, as well as quantifying the benefits of different configurations, will be key to unlocking the full potential of thermal microgrids for energy savings, decarbonization, and resiliency. This paper will do that, by reporting on preliminary results from a feasibility study of a thermal microgrid, and illustrating the process of conceptual design to seek the best possible performance, within the many constraints of existing buildings. The feasibility study focuses on a cluster of existing buildings, including a grocery store, big box style retail store, motel, and clinic, at a US Department of Defense installation in Germany. The study will assess the performance of a pilot-scale thermal microgrid serving those buildings, in terms of energy, emissions, and life cycle cost, and assess practical considerations (such as building retrofits and scalability) for future implementation. A significant opportunity exists for waste heat recovery from refrigeration at the grocery store (more than offsetting the entire building s space heating load in terms of waste heat availability), and modeling of the proposed thermal microgrid will assess the benefits of the waste heat integration. The moderate operating temperatures of thermal microgrids facilitate the integration of waste heat from a variety of sources, and the networks allow waste heat to be shared amongst buildings in proximity. Along with results on expected energy and emissions performance, as well as waste heat integration, the paper will assess implications of load diversity on system performance. The paper will also discuss the process of evaluating existing building HVAC systems for compatibility with a thermal microgrid, including the feasibility of lower heating hot water temperatures compatible with currently-available water-to-water heat pumps. The cluster of buildings under consideration in this study has much in common with commercial buildings in the United States. The process of and results from this feasibility study can inform assessment of the potential for thermal microgrids in other locations and help unlock the benefits of such systems for decarbonization and energy savings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Potential of Utilizing Thermal Energy Storage Integrated Ground Source Heat Pump System to Reshape Electricity Demand in the United States

Each year, more than 20% of electricity generated in the United States is consumed for meeting the thermal demands (e.g., space cooling, space heating, and water heating) in residential and commercial buildings. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with building’s HVAC systems has the potential to reshape the electric load profile of the building and mitigate the mismatch between the renewable generation and the demand of buildings. A novel ground source heat pump (GSHP) system integrated with underground thermal energy storage (UTES) has been proposed to level the electric demand of buildings while still satisfying their thermal demands. This study assessed the potential impacts of the proposed system with a bottom-up approach. The impacts on the electricity demand in various electricity markets were quantified. The results show that, within the capacity of the existing electric grids, the maximum penetration rate of the proposed system in different wholesale markets could range from 51% to 100%. Altogether, about 46 million single-family detached houses can be retrofitted into the proposed system without increasing the annual peak demand of the corresponding markets. By implementing the proposed system at its maximum penetration rate, the grid-level summer peak demand can be reduced by 9.1% to 18.2%. Meanwhile, at the grid level, the annual electricity consumption would change by –12% to 2%. The nationwide total electricity consumption would be reduced by 9%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Mixed‐Phase Clouds Over the Southern Ocean as Observed From Satellite and Surface Based Lidar and Radar

Abstract This study investigates the occurrence of mixed‐phase clouds (MPC, i.e., cloud layers containing both liquid and ice water at sub‐freezing temperatures) over the Southern Ocean (SO) using space‐ and surface‐based lidar and radar observations. The occurrence of supercooled clouds is dominated by geometrically thin (<1 km) layers that rarely contain ice. We diagnose layers that are geometrically thicker than 1 km to contain ice ~65% and ~4% of the time from below by surface remote sensors and from above by orbiting remote sensors, respectively. We examine the discrepancy in MPC occurrence statistics as diagnosed from below and above the cloud layer. From above, we find that MPC occurrence has a gradient associated with the Antarctic Polar Front near 55°S with a rare occurrence of satellite‐derived MPC south of that latitude. In contrast, surface sensors find ice in 33% of supercooled liquid water layers. We infer using observing system simulation experiments and data analysis that space‐based lidar cannot identify the occurrence of MPC except when secondary ice‐forming processes operate in convection that is, sufficiently strong to loft ice crystals to cloud tops. We conclude that the CALIPSO phase statistics of MPC have a severe low bias in MPC occurrence. Based on surface‐based statistics in the SO, we present a parameterization of the frequency of MPC as a function of cloud top temperature that differs substantially from that used in recent climate model simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development and testing of residential micro-CHP powered by opposed piston engine (CRADA Final Report)

A micro–combined heat and power (mCHP) prototype powered by innovative opposed piston engine technology was developed to simultaneously provide electricity and heat to residential or light commercial buildings. The mCHP prototype targeted at residential applications includes an opposed-piston four-stroke (OP4S) engine, generator, rectifier, inverter, battery energy storage system, 52 gal water tank, and application accessories for hot water supply and space heating. The OP4S engine can use renewable or regular natural gas, as well as hydrogen, to generate mechanical power and waste heat in form of hot coolant and exhaust gas simultaneously. The waste heat is recovered and stored in the water tank and can be used as a regular hot water supply and/or for space heating application. The tests show that the mCHP prototype enabled power outputs in the range of 3.2 –7.4 kW with up to 26.4% of AC electricity efficiency and up to 93.1% of the overall mCHP efficiency under stoichiometric combustion modes λ=~1.0. The mCHP was also run under lean combustion mode conditions at λ=~1.3. The lean mode operation enables more than 30% improvement in electrical energy efficiency. The maximum AC efficiency of the lean combustion mode attained was 35.2%, with the engine efficiency is approaching 40%. The exceptional electrical efficiency breaks the typical upper boundary of 30% for ICE-based mCHP. The engine exhaust temperatures in the lean modes are substantially less than in the stoichiometric modes. Moreover, the lean cases achieve high overall mCHP efficiencies: the overall mCHP efficiencies are all greater than 93%. Considering the mCHP prototype can achieve low-cost, flexible matching of thermal and electrical loads through reducing the complexity of distribution and installation, and high efficiency the novel technology will promote mCHP acceptance in the US residential and light commercial markets.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Catalytic Reduction of Graphene Oxide Membranes and Water Selective Channel Formation in Water–Alcohol Separations

Graphene oxide (GO) is a promising membrane system for chemical separation applications due to its 2-D nanofluidics properties and an ability to control interplanar spacing for selectivity. The permeance of water, methanol (MeOH) and isopropyl alcohol (IPA) through 5 µm thick membranes was found to be 0.38 ± 0.15, 0.33 ± 0.16 and 0.42 ± 0.31 LMH/bar (liter/m2·h·bar), respectively. Interestingly, the permeance of a water–alcohol mixture was found to be dramatically lower (~0.01 LMH/bar) than any of its components. Upon removing the solvent mixture, the transmembrane flux of the pure solvent was recovered to near the original permeance. The interlayer space of a dried GO membrane was found to be 8.52 Å, which increased to 12.19 Å. 13.26 Å and 16.20 Å upon addition of water, MeOH and IPA. A decrease in d-space, about 2 Å, was consistently observed when adding alcohol to water wetted GO membrane and an optical color change and reduction in permeance. A newly proposed mechanism of a partial reduction of GO through a catalytic reaction with the water–alcohol mixture is consistent with experimental observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Semi-automated Design of Artificial Intelligence Earth Systems Models

Prediction and observation of water cycles at various scales involve not only patterns isolated in space and time, but also modeling of complex spatio-temporal relationships across multiple domains. For instance, evapotranspiration (ET) and leaf area indexes (LAI) are two parameters that are needed to accurately model and understand land-atmosphere processes. Accurate assessments of ET and LAI are critical for understanding hydrological processes, deforestation, crop yield, and irrigation impacts. However, ET estimates for global simulations are available at very coarse spatial resolution. They are usually derived from satellite data based on broad plant functional types (PFTs), which fail to capture fine-scale variations because of changes in vegetation type across the globe. Similarly LAI estimates have typically been derived from vegetation indices at global scales or estimated locally using physical models, both of which suffer from a range of uncertainties that impact model sensitivity. The new era of AI model development for Earth systems (ES) calls for data-driven methods that provide domain scientists with uncertainty-aware estimations of biophysical parameters such as ET and LAI in a generalizable, interpretable, and discoverable manner.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗