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Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Decision Making During Spacecraft Operations

Decisions made during the operational phase of a space mission often have significant and immediate consequences. Without the explicit consideration of the risks involved and their representation in a solid model, it is very likely that these risks are not considered systematically in trade studies. Wrong decisions during the operational phase of a space mission can lead to immediate system failure whereas correct decisions can help recover the system even from faulty conditions. A problem of special interest is the determination of the system fault protection strategies upon the occurrence of faults within the system. Decisions regarding the fault protection strategy also heavily rely on a correct understanding of the state of the system and an integrated risk model that represents the various possible scenarios and their respective likelihoods. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling is applicable to the full lifecycle of a space mission project, from concept development to preliminary design, detailed design, development and operations. The benefits and utilities of the model, however, depend on the phase of the mission for which it is used. This is because of the difference in the key strategic decisions that support each mission phase. The focus of this paper is on describing the particular methods used for PRA modeling during the operational phase of a spacecraft by gleaning insight from recently conducted case studies on two operational Mars orbiters. During operations, the key decisions relate to the commands sent to the spacecraft for any kind of diagnostics, anomaly resolution, trajectory changes, or planning. Often, faults and failures occur in the parts of the spacecraft but are contained or mitigated before they can cause serious damage. The failure behavior of the system during operations provides valuable data for updating and adjusting the related PRA models that are built primarily based on historical failure data. The PRA models, in turn, provide insight into the effect of various faults or failures on the risk and failure drivers of the system and the likelihood of possible end case scenarios, thereby facilitating the decision making process during operations. This paper describes the process of adjusting PRA models based on observed spacecraft data, on one hand, and utilizing the models for insight into the future system behavior on the other hand. While PRA models are typically used as a decision aid during the design phase of a space mission, we advocate adjusting them based on the observed behavior of the spacecraft and utilizing them for decision support during the operations phase.

dynamic fault trees

Iterative Repair Planning for Spacecraft Operations Using the Aspen System

This paper describes the Automated Scheduling and Planning Environment (ASPEN). ASPEN encodes complex spacecraft knowledge of operability constraints, flight rules, spacecraft hardware, science experiments and operations procedures to allow for automated generation of low level spacecraft sequences. Using a technique called iterative repair, ASPEN classifies constraint violations (i.e., conflicts) and attempts to repair each by performing a planning or scheduling operation. It must reason about which conflict to resolve first and what repair method to try for the given conflict. ASPEN is currently being utilized in the development of automated planner/scheduler systems for several spacecraft, including the UFO-1 naval communications satellite and the Citizen Explorer (CX1) satellite, as well as for planetary rover operations and antenna ground systems automation. This paper focuses on the algorithm and search strategies employed by ASPEN to resolve spacecraft operations constraints, as well as the data structures for representing these constraints.

Rabideau, G.

Robust local search for spacecraft operations using adaptive noise

Randomization is a standard technique for improving the performance of local search algorithms for constraint satisfaction. However, it is well-known that local search algorithms are constraints satisfaction. However, it is well-known that local search algorithms are to the noise values selected. We investigate the use of an adaptive noise mechanism in an iterative repair-based planner/scheduler for spacecraft operations. Preliminary results indicate that adaptive noise makes the use of randomized repair moves safe and robust; that is, using adaptive noise makes it possible to consistently achieve, performance comparable with the best tuned noise setting without the need for manually tuning the noise parameter.

planning

Increasing the Automation and Autonomy for Spacecraft Operations with Criteria Action Table

The Criteria Action Table (CAT) is an automation tool developed for monitoring real time system messages for specific events and processes in order to take user defined actions based on a set of user-defined rules. CAT was developed by Lockheed Martin Space Operations as a part of a larger NASA effort at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to create a component-based, middleware-based, and standard-based general purpose ground system architecture referred as GMSEC - the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center. CAT has been integrated into the upgraded ground systems for Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Small Explorer (SMEX) satellites and it plays the central role in their automation effort to reduce the cost and increase the reliability for spacecraft operations. The GMSEC architecture provides a standard communication interface and protocol for components to publish/describe messages to an information bus. It also provides a standard message definition so components can send and receive messages to the bus interface rather than each other, thus reducing the component-to-component coupling, interface, protocols, and link (socket) management. With the GMSEC architecture, components can publish standard event messages to the bus for all nominal, significant, and surprising events in regard to satellite, celestial, ground system, or any other activity. In addition to sending standard event messages, each GMSEC compliant component is required to accept and process GMSEC directive request messages.

Li, Zhen-Ping

Iterative Repair Planning for Spacecraft Operations Using the Aspen System

This paper describes the Automated Scheduling and Planning Environment (ASPEN). ASPEN encodes complex spacecraft knowledge of operability constraints, flight rules, spacecraft hardware, science experiments and operations procedures to allow for automated generation of low level spacecraft sequences.

planning

Analysis of the Apollo spacecraft operational data management system. Executive summary

A study was made of Apollo, Skylab, and several other data management systems to determine those techniques which could be applied to the management of operational data for future manned spacecraft programs. The results of the study are presented and include: (1) an analysis of present data management systems, (2) a list of requirements for future operational data management systems, (3) an evaluation of automated data management techniques, and (4) a plan for data management applicable to future space programs.

Source record

Application of Space Environmental Observations to Spacecraft Pre-Launch Engineering and Spacecraft Operations

This presentation focuses on the effects of the space environment on spacecraft systems and applying this knowledge to spacecraft pre-launch engineering and operations. Particle radiation, neutral gas particles, ultraviolet and x-rays, as well as micrometeoroids and orbital debris in the space environment have various effects on spacecraft systems, including degradation of microelectronic and optical components, physical damage, orbital decay, biasing of instrument readings, and system shutdowns. Space climate and weather must be considered during the mission life cycle (mission concept, mission planning, systems design, and launch and operations) to minimize and manage risk to both the spacecraft and its systems. A space environment model for use in the mission life cycle is presented.

Barth, Janet L.

Spacecraft Operation Emulation Via Six DOF Tendon-Actuated Robot

NASA Johnson Space Center’s (JSC) Simulation, Emulation, Navigation, Sensors and STAR (SENSS) Laboratory has developed a large-scale six degree of freedom tendon-actuated robot (STAR) for emulation of spacecraft proximity operations and Entry, Descent, and Landing approach trajectories to aid in the rapid development and testing of a wide range of guidance, navigation, and control algorithms at low cost.

navigation

Meteor Shower Forecasting for Spacecraft Operations

Although sporadic meteoroids are a much greater hazard to spacecraft than shower meteoroids in general, meteor showers can significantly increase the risk of damage over short time periods. Because showers are brief, it is sometimes possible to mitigate the risk operationally, which requires accurate predictions of shower activity. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office generates an annual meteor shower forecast that describes the variations in the near-Earth meteoroid flux produced by meteor showers, which presents the shower flux both in absolute terms and relative to the sporadic ux. The shower forecast incorporates model predictions of annual variations in shower activity and quotes fluxes to several limiting particle kinetic energies. In this work, we describe our forecasting methods, compare them to actual observations, and highlight recent improvements to the temporal pro les based on flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR).

Moorhead, Althea V.

Beacon Spacecraft Operations: Lessons in Automation

A new approach to mission operations has been flight validated on NASA's Deep Space One (DS1) mission that launched in October 1998. The beacon monitor operations technology is aimed at decreasing the total volume of downlinked engineering telemetry by reducing the frequency of downlink and the volume of data received per pass.

spacecraft operations automation beacon

Meteor Shower Forecasting for Spacecraft Operations

Although sporadic meteoroids generally pose a much greater hazard to spacecraft than shower meteoroids, meteor showers can significantly increase the risk of damage over short time periods. Because showers are brief, it is sometimes possible to mitigate the risk operationally, which requires accurate predictions of shower activity. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) generates an annual meteor shower forecast that describes the variations in the near-Earth meteoroid flux produced by meteor showers, and presents the shower flux both in absolute terms and relative to the sporadic flux. The shower forecast incorporates model predictions of annual variations in shower activity and quotes fluxes to several limiting particle kinetic energies. In this work, we describe our forecasting methods and present recent improvements to the temporal profiles based on flux measurements from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR).

Moorhead, Althea V.

Solar-induced variations of environment affecting manned space flight and spacecraft operations

Estimates of short and long term solar activity are required for calculating variations in the environment with regard to spacecraft charging, radiation effects, and orbital lifetime. Correlations appear to exist between the time of solar activity and the time of operational anomalies due to electrical discharges when the dielectric surfaces of geosynchronous spacecraft are charged by interaction with the ambient plasma to levels above breakdown voltage. An ability to predict the solar induced variation variability of the plasmas could permit refinement of design criteria. The influence of the radiation on spacecraft materials, systems, and manned operations is summarized. Solar radition effects on the orbital altitude atmospheric density environment and spacecraft lifetimes are also considered.

Johnson, W. G.

Revamping Spacecraft Operational Intelligence

The EPOXI flight mission has been testing a new commercial system, Splunk, which employs data mining techniques to organize and present spacecraft telemetry data in a high-level manner. By abstracting away data-source specific details, Splunk unifies arbitrary data formats into one uniform system. This not only reduces the time and effort for retrieving relevant data, but it also increases operational visibility by allowing a spacecraft team to correlate data across many different sources. Splunk's scalable architecture coupled with its graphing modules also provide a solid toolset for generating data visualizations and building real-time applications such as browser-based telemetry displays.

Hwang, Victor

Hydrazine Conservation for the Dawn Spacecraft Operations at the Dwarf Planet Ceres

Dawn is a low-thrust interplanetary spacecraft currently orbiting the dwarf planet Ceres. After successfully completing its Vesta and Ceres prime missions, Dawn is now in its extended mission, continuously exploring Ceres. After losing the second reaction wheel assembly at the end of the Vesta mission, the feasibility of the Ceres mission was at risk due to the potentially significant increase in hydrazine consumption from using only the reaction control system thrusters. This paper summarizes the intense, collaborative efforts undertaken by the project to conserve hydrazine prior to Vesta departure, during cruise to Ceres, and throughout the Ceres mission. The project’s efforts in minimizing the number of turns are discussed. A special emphasis is given to describing various efforts taken by the Attitude Control Subsystem team in an attempt to reduce hydrazine consumption. These efforts include: changing default slew rates, control gain tuning, changing nadir pointing strategy with Ahead Cross Nadir pointing, hybrid control implementation using hydrazine based thrusters and two remaining reaction wheels, optimal science turn location analysis, and reaction wheel angular momentum management strategies for reducing the number of momentum unloadings. In addition to the Attitude Control Subsystem team’s efforts, the Mission Design and Navigation team’s efforts taken in designing hydrazine friendly orbit transfers are discussed. The trade study performed collaboratively by the Attitude Control Subsystem team and the Science Operations Support Team in choosing hydrazine friendly off-nadir targets is also discussed. Various simulation results are presented and compared against actual flight data obtained. Lastly, remaining hydrazine status at the end of the prime Ceres mission and the hydrazine management planning for the extended mission are discussed.

Salami, Mana