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Purpose of presentation: (1) Status update on the developing methodology to revise sub-system sparing targets. (2) To describe how to incorporate uncertainty into spare assessments and why it is important to do so (3) Demonstrate hardware risk postures through PACT evaluation
There are two general shortcomings to the current annual sparing assessment: 1. The vehicle functions are currently assessed according to confidence targets, which can be misleading- overly conservative or optimistic. 2. The current confidence levels are arbitrarily determined and do not account for epistemic uncertainty (lack of knowledge) in the ORU failure rate. There are two major categories of uncertainty that impact Sparing Assessment: (a) Aleatory Uncertainty: Natural variability in distribution of actual failures around an Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) (b) Epistemic Uncertainty : Lack of knowledge about the true value of an Orbital Replacement Unit's (ORU) MTBF We propose an approach to revise confidence targets and account for both categories of uncertainty, an approach we call Probability and Confidence Trade-space (PACT) evaluation.
This paper investigates the number of redundant units needed to achieve high reliability with high confidence. The approach applies to the case where the unit failure rate is too high for a single unit to provide the required reliability over the mission duration. To achieve high reliability, the design then uses N redundant units, one operating unit and N – 1 spares. If the unit failure rate is f, the mission length is L, and f * L is small (not the case assumed here), the unit failure probability over the mission duration is F1 = f * L << 1. In this case, the probability that all N units will fail is FN = F1N, and the needed N = LN(FN)/LN(F1). For the case of large f * L assumed here, F1 = f * L > 1, and F1 is the expected number of failures during the mission. The needed redundancy, N, to achieve the specified N unit reliability, FN, can be computed using the cumulative Poisson distribution with mean equal to F1. The number of spares, N - 1, is increased until the probability - that the total number of failures will be less than N -1 - achieves the required reliability. The confidence that this reliability can be achieved can be computed using the cumulative Poisson distribution or the chi-square distribution. Since the measured unit failure rate, f, has some uncertainty, the confidence that the rate is not lower than the actual failure rate and the required reliability is not overestimated is about 50%. Adding more redundant units increases the confidence that the required reliability, FN, will be achieved. For a fixed number of redundant units, the expected reliability and confidence can be traded off, since lower reliability goals have higher confidence in being achieved. Both the required reliability and confidence can be specified initially and the needed number of redundant units computed using the measured failure rate. The unit failure rate is determined by initial reliability growth testing to remove design errors and to better estimate the final constant failure rate. Reducing the failure rate and reducing its variance both reduce the number of redundant units needed for the required reliability and confidence. Since the total cost is the sum of the costs of the units and of the testing, there is an optimum test time that produces minimum cost.
In 2019 the International Space Station (ISS) experienced an on on-orbit failure that affected 1 of 28 Battery Charge Discharge Units (BCDUs). Telemetry pointed to a short circuit failure of a Power Rectifier Quad Diode Module. Astronauts removed the failed unit from service which was then returned to Earth for failure analysis. The failure analysis confirmed that the quad diode module had failed short circuit. The investigation identified silver dendrites had grown on the insulated, sloped edge of the mesa semiconductor die of the failed diode and also a 2nd diode in the same quad diode module. Voids between the diode’s protective encapsulating ring and the die provided space within which dendrites were able to form and cause catastrophic failure. The NASA Engineering & Safety Center (NESC) convened a EEE Parts Sub-Team to investigate root cause and to assist with risk assessment for all of the flight diode modules (4 distinct production lots) and the flight spares (from a 5th lot). Analysis of the original diode manufacturer’s read and record screening test data identified some lots which contained diodes with parametric instabilities that could signal conditions suited for silver dendrite formation. Computed Tomography (CT) X-ray screening inspection was performed on flight spare modules to identify diodes that do not exhibit voids between the edge of die and encapsulating ring as a mitigation against dendrite formation.
Ground testing of the DS1 flight spare thruster (FT2) is presently being conducted.
Reliability modeling and analysis of dynamic TMR using standby spares
Simplified technique to determine the number of spare parts required for a given risk level employs shrot-cut approximations in lieu of computer-assisted or complex computational analyses.
A mathematical programing model is presented to optimize the selection of Orbital Replacement Unit on-orbit spares for the Space Station. The model maximizes system availability under the constraints of logistics resupply-cargo weight and volume allocations.
Ground testing of the DS1 night spare thruster (FT2) is presently being conducted. To date, the thruster has accumulated over 4500 hours of operation. Comparison of FT2 with the performance of the engineering model thruster 2 (EMT2) during the 8.2 khr test shows a transient, lasting for about 3000 hours, during which the discharge chamber efficiency decreases for both thrusters. The flow rates are 2% lower for FT2 than for EMT2 and the discharge chamber performance is 4.5% lower for FT2 during the transient. Sensitivity data obtained during the test show that the lower flow rate accounts for about half of the observed difference. After the initial transients decay, the performance of both thrusters is comparable with the exception of the electron backstreaming margin--which is 6 V lower for FT2.
The XRS instrument on Astro-E is a fully self-contained microcalorimeter x-ray instrument capable of acquiring optimally filtering, and characterizing events for 32 independent pixels. With the launch of the Astro-E spacecraft, a full flight spare detector system has been integrated into a laboratory cryostat for use on the electron beam ion trap (EBIT) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The detector system contains a microcalorimeter array with 32 instrumented pixels heat sunk to 60 mK using an adiabatic demagnetization refrio,erator. The instrument has a composite resolution of 8eV at 1 keV and 12eV at 6 keV with a minimum of 95% quantum efficiency. This will allow high spectral resolution, broadband observations of collisionally excited plasmas which are produced in the EBIT experiment. Unique to our instrument are exceptionally well characterized 1000 Angstrom thick aluminum on polyimide infrared blocking filters. The detailed transmission function including the edc,e fine structure of these filters has been measured in our laboratory using an erect field grating spectrometer. This will allow the instrument to perform the first broadband absolute flux measurements with the EBIT instrument. The instrument performance as well as the results of preliminary measurements will be discussed. Work performed under the auspices of the U.S. D.o.E. by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract W-7405-ENG-48 and was supported by the NASA High Energy Astrophysics Supporting Research and Technology Program.
A long duration test of the DSl flight spare ion thruster (FT2) is presently being conducted at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. To, date the thruster has accumulated over 23,500 hours of operation, and 190 kg of Xenon propellant, over 230% of the initial design life. The primary objectives of the test include the processing of 200 kg of Xenon propellant, the identification of unknown failure modes, the characterization and drivers of these failure modes, and to measure performance degradation as the thruster wears. The test is fitted with an extensive array of diagnostics to measure engine wear and performance degradation. To date the most notable erosion processes include severe discharge cathode keeper erosion, accelerator grid erosion, reduction in electrical isolation of the neutralizer assembly, and deposit formation within the neutralizer orifice, reducing margin from plume mode. Over the past 23,500 hours of operation, performance degradation has been minimal, and it is anticipated that the above erosion processes will not preclude the thruster from processing over 200 kg of Xenon.
The extended life test (ELT) of the Deep Space 1 (DS1) spare flight ion thruster (FT2) was voluntarily terminated June 26th 2003. The test was started in Cotober of 1998, just prior to the launch of the DS1 spacecraft, with the primary purpose of determining the ultimate service life capability of the NASA 30-cm-ion thruster technology.
Destructive physical analysis of the discharge and neutralizer hollow cathode assemblies from the Deep Space 1 Flight Spare 30,000 Hr life test was performed to characterize physical and chemical evidence of operationally induced effects after 30,372 hours of operation with beam extraction. Post-test inspection of the discharge-cathode assembly was subdivided into detailed analyses at the subcomponent level. Detailed materials analysis and optical inspection of the insert, orifice plate, cathode tube, heater, keeper assembly, insulator, and low-voltage propellant isolator were performed. Energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) and scanning electron microscopy (SEW analyses were used to determine the extent and composition of regions of net deposition and erosion of both the discharge and neutralizer inserts. A comparative approach with an un-operated 4:1:1 insert was used to determine the extent of impregnate material depletion as a function of depth from the ID surface and axial position from the orifice plate. Analysis results are compared and contrasted with those obtained from similar analyses on components from shorter term tests, and provide insight regarding the prospect for successful longer-term operation consistent with SOA ion engine program life objectives at NASA.
In 2000 and 2002 the Stardust Mission exposed aerogel collector panels for a total of about 200 days to the stream of interstellar grains sweeping through the solar system. The material was brought back to Earth in 2006. The goal of this work is the laboratory calibration of the collection process by shooting high speed [5 - 30km/s] interstellar dust (ISD) analogues onto Stardust aerogel flight spares. This enables an investigation into both the morphology of impact tracks as well as any structural and chemical modification of projectile and collector material. First results indicate a different ISD flux than previously assumed for the Stardust collection period.
A technique has been devised to enable creation of a dynamic set of test points in an embedded digital electronic system. As a result, electronics contained in an application specific circuit [e.g., gate array, field programmable gate array (FPGA)] can be internally probed, even when contained in a closed housing during all phases of test. In the present technique, the test points are not fixed and limited to a small number; the number of test points can vastly exceed the number of buffers or pins, resulting in a compact footprint. Test points are selected by means of spare logic resources within the ASIC(s) and/or FPGA(s). A register is programmed with a command, which is used to select the signals that are sent off-chip and out of the housing for monitoring by test engineers and external test equipment. The register can be commanded by any suitable means: for example, it could be commanded through a command port that would normally be used in the operation of the system. In the original application of the technique, commanding of the register is performed via a MIL-STD-1553B communication subsystem.
The Deep Space 1 (DSl) spare flight thruster (FT2) was operated for 30,352 hours during the extended life test (ELT). The test was performed to validate the service life of the thruster, study known and identify unknown life limiting modes. Several of the known life limiting modes involve the ion optics system. These include loss of structural integrity for either the screen grid or accelerator grid due to sputter erosion from energetic ions striking the grid, sputter erosion enlargement of the accelerator grid apertures to the point where the accelerator grid power supply can no longer prevent electron backstreaming, unclearable shorting between the grids causes by flakes of sputtered material, and rouge hole formation due to flakes of material defocusing the ion beam. Grid gap decrease, which increases the probability of electron backstreaming and of arcing between the grids, was identified as an additional life limiting mechanism after the test. A combination of accelerator grid aperture enlargement and grid gap decrease resulted in the inability to prevent electron backstreaming at full power at 26,000 hours of the ELT. Through pits had eroded through the accelerator grid webbing and grooves had penetrated through 45% of the grid thickness in the center of the grid. The upstream surface of the screen grid eroded in a chamfered pattern around the holes in the central portion of the grid. Sputter deposited material, from the accelerator grid, adhered to the downstream surface of the screen grid and did not spall to form flakes. Although a small amount of sputter deposited material protruded into the screen grid apertures, no rouge holes were found after the ELT.
The NASA Stardust mission used silica aerogel slabs to slowly decelerate and capture impinging cosmic dust particles for return to Earth. During this process, impact tracks are generated along the trajectory of the particle into the aerogel. It is believed that the morphology and dimensions of these tracks, together with the state of captured grains at track termini, may be linked to the size, velocity, and density of the impacting cosmic dust grain. Here, we present the results of laboratory hypervelocity impact experiments, during which cosmic dust analog particles (diameters of between 0.2 and 0.4 lm), composed of olivine, orthopyroxene, or an organic polymer, were accelerated onto Stardust flight spare low-density (approximately 0.01 g/cu cm) silica aerogel. The impact velocities (3-21 km/s) were chosen to simulate the range of velocities expected during Stardust's interstellar dust (ISD) collection phases. Track lengths and widths, together with the success of particle capture, are analyzed as functions of impact velocity and particle composition, density, and size. Captured terminal particles from low-density organic projectiles become undetectable at lower velocities than those from similarly sized, denser mineral particles, which are still detectable (although substantially altered by the impact process) at 15 km/s. The survival of these terminal particles, together with the track dimensions obtained during low impact speed capture of small grains in the laboratory, indicates that two of the three best Stardust candidate extraterrestrial grains were actually captured at speeds much lower than predicted. Track length and diameters are, in general, more sensitive to impact velocities than previously expected, which makes tracks of particles with diameters of 0.4 lm and below hard to identify at low capture speeds (<10 km/s). Therefore, although captured intact, the majority of the interstellar dust grains returned to Earth by Stardust remain to be found.
Transporting of Spare Altitude Chamber from Lunar Module (LM) Site to Command Service Module (CSM) Site. The video is broken into three parts: - Part 1: Run time of 21 min., 21 sec.; color; no sound - Part 2: Run time of 17 min., 14 sec.; color; no sound - Part 3: Run time of 18 min., 41 sec.; color, no sound All videos are in the mp4 format.