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NASA NTRS2021

Dynamic Ensemble Prediction of Cognitive Performance in Space

Astronauts are exposed to a unique set of stressors in spaceflight. Microgravity, isolation, confinement, and environmental and operational hazards: all of these can impact sleep, vigilant attention, and alertness, which are critical to mission success. In this paper, we seek to understand the most important predictors of alertness over the course of a space mission, using self-reported, cognitive, and environmental data collected from 24 astronauts on 6-month missions to the International Space Station (ISS). Alertness was repeatedly and objectively assessed on the ISS with a brief 3-minute Psychomotor Vigilance Test (PVT) that is highly sensitive to sleep deprivation. To relate PVT performance to time-varying and sparsely-measured environmental, operational, and psychological covariates, we propose a n ensemble prediction model comprising of linear mixed effects regression, random forest, and functional concurrent regression models. An extensive cross-validation procedure reveals that this ensemble outperforms any one of its components alone. We also discover that a participant’s past performance, reported fatigue and stress, and temperature and radiation exposure were among the most important variables associated with alertness. This method is broadly applicable to environmental studies where the main goal is accurate, individualized prediction involving a mixture of person-level traits and irregularly measured time series.

Danni Tu↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-response Curves

NASA will soon be collecting noise-annoyance community survey data as the X-59 aircraft flies supersonically over several communities in the USA. Sparse measurements of the X-59 sonic thumps will be used together with physics-based simulations to estimate noise doses at survey participant locations. These dose estimates have associated error that affects the accuracy of modeled dose-response curves, which can result in misestimation of annoyance. The precision in dose-response curves is also a consideration in selecting the number of survey participants. To enable pretest studies of dose error and precision, simulated dose-response data were generated based on NASA’s Quiet Supersonic Flights 2018 test. The data included various degrees of dose error and sample size. Frequentist multilevel logistic regression models were fit to the true and perturbed dose-response data. Simple proportional relationships were identified between the model parameters and the perturbation standard deviation. The summary dose-response curves illustrate the impact on accuracy if dose error is not accounted for in the model. The precision in the dose-response curves is also shown as the number of participants and degree of participation is varied. Finally, sampling variability is illustrated by showing the dose-response curves for several replicates with random draws of participants and errors.

X-59↗

NASA NTRS2019

Industrial-Era Decline in Subarctic Atlantic Productivity

Marine phytoplankton play a critical role in modulating marine-based food webs, fishery yields, and the global drawdown of atmospheric CO2. Due to sparse measurements prior to 21st century satellite monitoring, however, little is known of the long-term response of planktonic stocks to climate forcing. Here we produce the first continuous, multi-century record of subarctic Atlantic marine productivity, showing a marked 10 ± 7% decline has occurred across this highly-productive ocean basin over the last two centuries. We support this conclusion through the application of a novel marine-productivity proxy, established using a unique signal of planktonic-derived aerosol commonly identified across an array of Greenlandic ice cores. Utilizing contemporaneous satellite-era observations, we demonstrate this signal’s use as a robust and high-resolution proxy for spatially-integrated marine productivity variations. We show that the initiation of declining subarctic Atlantic productivity broadly coincides with the onset of Arctic surface warming, and that productivity strongly covaries with regional sea-surface temperatures and basin-wide gyre circulation strength over recent decades. Taken together, our results suggest the industrial era productivity decline may be evidence of the predicted5 collapse of northern Atlantic planktonic stocks in response to a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Continued AMOC weakening, as projected for the 21st century, may therefore result in further productivity declines across this globally-relevant region.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Effects of Dose Error and Sample Size on Sonic Boom Dose-Response Curves

X-59↗

NASA NTRS2026

The Significance of Water Vapor Isotopes in Improving Weather Prediction

Water vapor isotopes carry the integrated history of evaporation, condensation, mixing, and transport. Although previous studies have shown potential to improve forecasts under controlled conditions, real-world applications have been limited by systematic biases in both models and satellite retrievals arising from sparse measurements in the free troposphere. Here we assimilate mid‑tropospheric δD retrievals (peak sensitivity ~4.2 km) from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer into the Isotope‑incorporated Global Spectral Model and evaluate the added value beyond co‑assimilated temperature and specific humidity with identical spatial and temporal coverage. Assimilating δD improves 0–120 h forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, and geopotential height, with the largest gains in the midlatitudes; heavy‑precipitation skill also increases for thresholds >3 mm per 6 h. Demonstrated in a coarse‑resolution configuration with limited observations, the results indicate that isotopic information strengthens transport tracking and hydrological constraints, motivating evaluation in operational high‑resolution forecasting systems.

Hydrology↗

NASA NTRS2012

Telescope Alignment From Sparsely Sampled Wavefront Measurements Over Pupil Subapertures

Alignment of two-element telescopes is a classic problem. During recent integration and test of the Space Interferometry Mission s (SIM s) Astrometric Beam Combiner (ABC), the innovators were faced with aligning two such telescope subsystems in the presence of a further complication: only two small subapertures in each telescope s pupil were accessible for measuring the wavefront with a Fizeau interferometer. This meant that the familiar aberrations that might be interpreted to infer system misalignments could be viewed only over small sub-regions of the pupil, making them hard to recognize. Further, there was no contiguous surface of the pupil connecting these two subapertures, so relative phase piston information was lost; the underlying full-aperture aberrations therefore had an additional degree of ambiguity. The solution presented here is to recognize that, in the absence of phase piston, the Zygo measurements primarily provide phase tilt in the subaperture windows of interest. Because these windows are small and situated far from the center of the (inaccessible) unobscured full aperture, any aberrations that are higher-order than tilt will be extremely high-order on the full aperture, and so not necessary or helpful to the alignment. Knowledge of the telescope s optical prescription allows straightforward evaluation of sensitivities (subap mode strength per unit full-aperture aberration), and these can be used in a predictive matrix approach to move with assurance to an aligned state. The technique is novel in every operational way compared to the standard approach of alignment based on full-aperture aberrations or searching for best rms wavefront. This approach is closely grounded in the observable quantities most appropriate to the problem. It is also more intuitive than inverting full phase maps (or subaperture Zernike spectra) with a ray-tracing program, which must certainly work in principle, but in practice met with limited success. Even if such classical alignment techniques became practical, the techniques reported here form a reassuringly transparent and intuitive check on the course of the alignment with very little computational effort.

Bloemhof, Eric E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Estimating Sonic Boom Metrics Across a Community Using a Kalman Filter

As part of the Quesst mission, NASA will fly the X‑59 aircraft over selected communities to evaluate community responses to low-intensity sonic booms. The purpose of these community tests is to determine the dose-response relationship between the noise exposure metrics and the community response. The independent variables for the dose-response relationship are the noise exposure metrics experienced by survey respondents within the community. Two sources of noise exposure metrics are available in each community: measurements at sparse locations throughout the community, and calculations from propagation models across the community. Both the measurements and calculations are subject to uncertainty. A Kalman filter is proposed to combine the measured and calculated noise exposure metrics to obtain the best estimate of the true noise exposure metrics across the community. The noise exposure metrics estimated by the Kalman filter have lower uncertainty than either the measured or calculated noise exposure metrics alone. Simulations demonstrate that the Kalman filter produces a more accurate estimate of the true noise exposure metrics than other noise estimation methods.

Sonic boom↗

NASA NTRS1995

Inferring the thermal-infrared hemispheric emission from a sparsely-vegetated surface by directional measurements

The thermal-infrared (longwave) emission from a vegetated terrain is generally anisotropic, i.e., the emission temperature varies with the view direction. If a directional measurement of temperature is considered to be equal to the effective temperature of the hemispheric emission, then the estimate of the latter can be significantly in error. The view-direction (zenith angle theta(sub eq) at which the emission equivalence does hold is determined in our modeling study. In a two-temperature field-of-view (soil and plants), theta(sub eq) falls in a narrow range depending on plant density and canopy architecture. Theta(sub eq) does not depend on soil and (uniform) plant temperatures nor on their ratio, even though the pattern of emission vs. the view direction depends crucially on this ratio. For a sparse canopy represented as thin, vertical cylindrical stalks (or vertical blades uniformly distributed in azimuth) with horizontal facets, theta(sub eq) ranges from 48 to 53 deg depending on the optical density of the vertical elements alone. When plant elements are modeled as small spheres, theta(sub eq) lies between 53 to 57 deg (for the same values of the canopy optical density). Only for horizontal leaves (a truly planophile canopy) is the temperature measured from any direction equal to the temperature of the hemispheric emission. When the emission temperature changes with optical depth within the canopy at a specified rate, theta(sub eq) depends to some extent on that rate. For practically any sparsely vegetated surface, a directional measurement at the zenith angle of 50 deg offers an appropriate evaluation of the hemispheric emission, since the error in the estimate will, at most, only slightly exceed 1% (around 4 W/sq m). Estimates of the hemispheric emission through a nadir measurement, on the other hand, can be in error in some cases by about 10%, i.e., on the order of 40 W/sq m.

Otterman, J.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Measurement of optical modulation functions in sparsely sampled mosaic focal plane arrays

It is pointed out that the measurement of optical modulation functions for detectors in focal plane arrays may be somewhat more difficult under 'full-up' systems conditions as compared to ideal laboratory conditions. An idealized optical modulation test arrangement is considered along with a full-up scanned system involving an earth mapper in polar orbit. In testing the system in full-up condition, a problem arises with respect to the acquisition of knife edge response data. In order to overcome this problem, a preferred method is developed for obtaining KER data on a single scan. A special 'phased edge' reticle is developed for use in the test set-up. Attention is given to aspects of knife edge reconstruction.

Young, J. B.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) and a Dynamic Loads Balance to Predict Launch Vehicle Buffet Environments

This NESC assessment examined the accuracy of estimating buffet loads on in-line launch vehicles without booster attachments using sparse unsteady pressure measurements. The buffet loads computed using sparse sensor data were compared with estimates derived using measurements with much higher spatial resolution. The current method for estimating launch vehicle buffet loads is through wind tunnel testing of models with approximately 400 unsteady pressure transducers. Even with this relatively large number of sensors, the coverage can be insufficient to provide reliable integrated unsteady loads on vehicles. In general, sparse sensor spacing requires the use of coherence-length-based corrections in the azimuthal and axial directions to integrate the unsteady pressures and obtain reasonable estimates of the buffet loads. Coherence corrections have been used to estimate buffet loads for a variety of launch vehicles with the assumption methodology results in reasonably conservative loads. For the Space Launch System (SLS), the first estimates of buffet loads exceeded the limits of the vehicle structure, so additional tests with higher sensor density were conducted to better define the buffet loads and possibly avoid expensive modifications to the vehicle design. Without the additional tests and improvements to the coherence-length analysis methods, there would have been significant impacts to the vehicle weight, cost, and schedule. If the load estimates turn out to be too low, there is significant risk of structural failure of the vehicle. This assessment used a combination of unsteady pressure-sensitive paint (uPSP), unsteady pressure transducers, and a dynamic force and moment balance to investigate the integration schemes used with limited unsteady pressure data by comparing them with direct integration of extremely dense fluctuating pressure measurements. An outfall of the assessment was to evaluate the potential of using the emerging uPSP technique in a production test environment for future launch vehicles. The results show that modifications to the current technique can improve the accuracy of buffet estimates. More importantly, the uPSP worked remarkably well and, with improvements to the frequency response, sensitivity, and productivity, will provide an enhanced method for measuring wind tunnel buffet forcing functions (BFFs).

Schuster, David M.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Far Ultraviolet Refractive Index of Optical Materials for Solar Blind Channel (SBC) Filters for HST Advanced Camera for Surveys

Refractive index measurements using the minimum deviation method have been carried out for prisms of a variety of far ultraviolet optical materials used in the manufacture of Solar Blind Channel (SBC) filters for the HST Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS). Some of the materials measured are gaining popularity in a variety of high technology applications including high power excimer lasers and advanced microlithography optics operating in a wavelength region where high quality knowledge of optical material properties is sparse. Our measurements are of unusually high accuracy and precision for this wavelength region owing to advanced instrumentation in the large vacuum chamber of the Diffraction Grating Evaluation Facility (DGEF) at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). Index values for CaF2, BaF2, LiF, and far ultraviolet grades of synthetic sapphire and synthetic fused silica are reported and compared with values from the literature.

Leviton, Douglas B.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modeling of solid/porous wall boundary conditions for the validation of computational fluid dynamics codes

A computational study has been undertaken to investigate method of modeling solid and porous wall boundary conditions in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes. The procedure utilizes experimental measurements at the walls to develop a flow field solution based on the method of singularities. This flow field solution is then imposed as a boundary condition in a CFD simulation of the internal flow field. The effectiveness of this method in describing the boundary conditions at the wind tunnel walls using only sparse experimental measurements has been investigated. Position and refinement of experimental measurement locations required to describe porous wall boundary conditions has also been considered.

Beutner, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Determination of solid/porous wall boundary conditions from wind tunnel data for computational fluid dynamics codes

A computational and experimental study has been undertaken to investigate methods of modeling solid and porous wall boundary conditions in CFD codes. The procedure utilizes experimental measurements at the walls to develop a flow field solution based on the method of singularities. This flow field solution is then imposed as a boundary condition in a CFD simulation of the internal flow field. The effectiveness of this method in describing the boundary conditions at the wind tunnel walls using only sparse experimental measurements has been investigated. Verification of the approach using computational studies has been carried out using an incompressible flow solver. The current work demonstrates this technique for low speed flows and compares the result with experimental data obtained from a heavily instrumented variable porosity test section. Position and refinement of experimental measurements required to describe porous wall boundary conditions has also been considered for application to other porous wall wind tunnels.

Beutner, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Determination of solid/porous wall boundary conditions from wind tunnel data for computational fluid dynamics codes

A computational and experimental study has been undertaken to investigate methods of modelling solid and porous wall boundary conditions in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes. The procedure utilizes experimental measurements at the walls to develop a flow field solution based on the method of singularities. This flow field solution is then imposed as a pressure boundary condition in a CFD simulation of the internal flow field. The effectiveness of this method in describing the boundary conditions at the wind tunnel walls using only sparse experimental measurements has been investigated. Verification of the approach using computational studies has been carried out using an incompressible flow solver. The current work demonstrates this technique for low speed flows and compares the result with experimental data obtained from a heavily instrumented variable porosity test section. Position and refinement of experimental measurements required to describe porous wall boundary conditions have also been considered for application to other porous wall wind tunnels. The approach developed is simple, computationally inexpensive, and does not require extensive or intrusive measurements. It may be applied to both solid and porous wall wind tunnel tests. Some consideration is given to the extension of this method to three dimensions.

Beutner, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS1993

A method for the modelling of porous and solid wind tunnel walls in computational fluid dynamics codes

Porous wall wind tunnels have been used for several decades and have proven effective in reducing wall interference effects in both low speed and transonic testing. They allow for testing through Mach 1, reduce blockage effects and reduce shock wave reflections in the test section. Their usefulness in developing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes has been limited, however, by the difficulties associated with modelling the effect of a porous wall in CFD codes. Previous approaches to modelling porous wall effects have depended either upon a simplified linear boundary condition, which has proven inadequate, or upon detailed measurements of the normal velocity near the wall, which require extensive wind tunnel time. The current work was initiated in an effort to find a simple, accurate method of modelling a porous wall boundary condition in CFD codes. The development of such a method would allow data from porous wall wind tunnels to be used more readily in validating CFD codes. This would be beneficial when transonic validations are desired, or when large models are used to achieve high Reynolds numbers in testing. A computational and experimental study was undertaken to investigate a new method of modelling solid and porous wall boundary conditions in CFD codes. The method utilized experimental measurements at the walls to develop a flow field solution based on the method of singularities. This flow field solution was then imposed as a pressure boundary condition in a CFD simulation of the internal flow field. The effectiveness of this method in describing the effect of porosity changes on the wall was investigated. Also, the effectiveness of this method when only sparse experimental measurements were available has been investigated. The current work demonstrated this approach for low speed flows and compared the results with experimental data obtained from a heavily instrumented variable porosity test section. The approach developed was simple, computationally inexpensive, and did not require extensive or intrusive measurements of the boundary conditions during the wind tunnel test. It may be applied to both solid and porous wall wind tunnel tests.

Beutner, Thomas John↗

NASA NTRS2019

Diurnal Cycle of IMERG V06 Precipitation

This study demonstrates the maturing ability of the half-hourly precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) for use in global analyses of the diurnal cycle. The refined intercalibration and interpolation between the sensors in V06 leads to greater consistency in the precipitation retrievals over different hours of the day. Evaluation against ground measurements suggests a slight lag in the diurnal phase of only +0.59 h. We demonstrate the diurnal cycle over different regions around the globe, including the Maritime Continent, where accurate representation of precipitation variability in global models remains a challenge. Using examples over Singapore, Bangladesh, and Lake Victoria, we reveal the intricate interplay between diurnal and seasonal variability. This study demonstrates the unprecedented capability of IMERG in capturing the diurnal cycle of precipitation globally, potentially advancing our understanding in regions of sparse ground measurements and supporting improvements in its representation in global models.

Jackson Tan↗

NASA NTRS1983

Linear absorption coefficient of beryllium in the 50-300-A wavelength range

Transmittances of thin-film filters fabricated for an extreme-UV astronomy sounding-rocket experiment yield values for the linear absorption coefficient of beryllium in the 50-300-A wavelength range, in which previous measurements are sparse. The inferred values are consistent with the lowest data previously published and may have important consequences for extreme-UV astronomers.

Barstow, M. A.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Optimal post-experiment estimation of poorly modeled dynamic systems

Recently, a novel strategy for post-experiment state estimation of discretely-measured dynamic systems has been developed. The method accounts for errors in the system dynamic model equations in a more general and rigorous manner than do filter-smoother algorithms. The dynamic model error terms do not require the usual process noise assumptions of zero-mean, symmetrically distributed random disturbances. Instead, the model error terms require no prior assumptions other than piecewise continuity. The resulting state estimates are more accurate than filters for applications in which the dynamic model error clearly violates the typical process noise assumptions, and the available measurements are sparse and/or noisy. Estimates of the dynamic model error, in addition to the states, are obtained as part of the solution of a two-point boundary value problem, and may be exploited for numerous reasons. In this paper, the basic technique is explained, and several example applications are given. Included among the examples are both state estimation and exploitation of the model error estimates.

Mook, D. Joseph↗