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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2022

Physical Models from Physical Templates Using Biocompatible Liquid Crystal Elastomers as Morphologically Programmable Inks For 3D Printing

Advanced manufacturing has received considerable attention as a tool for the fabrication of cell scaffolds however, finding ideal biocompatible and biodegradable materials that fit the correct parameters for 3D printing and guide cells to align remain a challenge. Herein, a photocrosslinkable smectic-A (Sm-A) liquid crystal elastomer (LCE) designed for 3D printing is presented, that promotes cell proliferation but most importantly induces cell anisotropy. The LCE-based bio-ink allows the 3D duplication of a highly complex brain structure generated from an animal model. Vascular tissue models are generated from fluorescently stained mouse tissue spatially imaged using confocal microscopy and subsequently processed to create a digital 3D model suitable for printing. The 3D structure is reproduced using a Digital Light Processing (DLP) stereolithography (SLA) desktop 3D printer. Synchrotron Small-Angle X-ray Diffraction (SAXD) data reveal a strong alignment of the LCE layering within the struts of the printed 3D scaffold. The resultant anisotropy of the LCE struts is then shown to direct cell growth. This study offers a simple approach to produce model tissues built within hours that promote cellular alignment.

3D cell culture↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stochastic reconstruction of fracture network pattern using spatial point processes

Fracture spatial patterns can strongly affect fluid flow in the subsurface. Proximity and distribution of fractures control reservoir flow behavior over various length scales. In many studies, however, simplified geometrical patterns are generated for fractures which may lead to unrealistic subsurface models. Here we introduce a new method for characterization and modeling of fracture spatial patterns based on outcrop observations. We use Ripley's K-function to characterize the arrangement of fracture barycenters and intersection points over various length scales. In addition, we use semivariograms to quantify spatial correlation in fracture intensity maps. Using this information, we develop a stochastic algorithm that generates two-dimensional fracture network realizations with spatial properties similar to those of a real fracture network measured in the field. Numerical simulation models indicate that the generated fracture realizations exhibit similar flow behaviors as that of the original fracture network. Furthermore, such modeling tools expand and improve our capability in building representative fracture models and in quantification of uncertainty in naturally and hydraulically fractured reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A scalable planning framework of energy storage systems under frequency dynamics constraints

As the penetration of renewables increases in power systems, the declining system inertia can cause frequency stability issues. Battery energy storage systems (BESSs) respond fast and therefore can relieve the low inertia difficulty but need to be appropriately sized considering the associated cost. This paper presents a novel stochastic optimization model for economically planning BESS capacity while considering the spatial–temporal correlation of wind generation and generator outages under frequency stability constraints, which include the rate-of-change of frequency (RoCoF), frequency nadir (FN), and quasi-steady-state (QSS) frequency. A set of new FN constraints that can be easily linearized is developed. To account for renewable uncertainties, a realistic uncertainty modeling approach, Random Field, is adopted to generate wind generation scenarios by considering both spatial and temporal evolutions of wind speed profiles. The ESS sizing is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem and solved by using a scalable decomposition-and-coordination approach, Surrogate Absolute Value Lagrangian Relaxation (SAVLR). To further improve the scalability and reduce computational burdens, a rolling-horizon-based update is developed and incorporated into SAVLR for providing a practical solution to the long-term planning of very large-scale power systems. Finally, a modified IEEE 118-bus system and the Polish system are used to validate the effectiveness and scalability of the model and solution methodology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems. However, estimating global NH 3 emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy. In this report we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH 3 emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH 3 emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr -1 , lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH3 emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr -1 ) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH3 emissions reductions of 47% (44–56%) for rice, 27% (24–28%) for maize and 26% (20–28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH3 emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1–2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5–8.5 by 2030–2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra: Modeling Archive

This dataset is a model archive of the paper Permafrost Thaw, Uneven Subsidence and Projected Drying of Ice-wedge Polygon Tundra (in prep) to support a modeling study investigating how projected increases in Arctic temperature and precipitation will jointly influence hydrologic conditions in ice-rich tundra landscapes. With this dataset, this study is to address the research question: Will Arctic tundra landscapes become wetter or drier with increasing precipitation and temperature in the future when thaw-induced ground subsidence and associated microtopographic evolution are represented? The simulations focus on ice-wedge polygon tundra, a widespread form of ice-rich permafrost terrain that is highly sensitive to thaw-driven landscape change. This dataset contains model input and output data for four study watersheds in Alaska: Anaktuvuk, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Brooks Foothills, and Prudhoe Bay. Simulations were performed using the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS, v1.5), a physics-rich integrated surface–subsurface hydrologic model. For each watershed, ten modeling cases were performed representing two landscape evolution conditions (with subsidence and without subsidence) combined with five climate forcing scenarios derived from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5, SSP5 with precipitation trend, SSP2, SSP2 with precipitation trend, and SSP2 with double precipitation trend). Particularly, for each watershed under the forcing SSP2 with precipitation trend, there are two additional simulations considering spatially heterogeneous subsidence distributions: one assumes randomly distributed scaling and the other includes elevation dependent distribution scaling. These simulations span 1980–2099 and include spin-up runs (1980–2009) followed by transient projections (2010–2099). To facilitate reproducibility of simulations, all datasets are organized by watershed. For each study watershed, the dataset contains: (1) Pre-partitioned mesh files for 32-core modeling (.par.32.XX), located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh/basin; and also a non-partitioned mesh file (.exo) located in EACH_WATERSHED/mesh; (2) Climate forcings corresponding to the five SSP scenarios (.h5), located in EACH_WATERSHED/data; (3) Final states (.h5) from column spin-up modeling used to initialize historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009, located in EACH_WATERSHED/PreSpinupHistorical; (4) Final states (.h5) of historical watershed-scale spin-up runs from 1980 to 2009 used to initialize projection runs, located in EACH_WATERSHED/Spinup_daymetERA5; (5) ATS modeling input files (.xml), located in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/inputfiles; (6) ATS modeling output files (.dat), located in in EACH_WATERSHED/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/combined_obs; (7) For the Brooks Foothills watershed, additional spatial model outputs are provided (.h5) for selected years (2033 and 2093) used to generate spatial figures in this study, located in Brooksfoothills/EACH_SIMULATION_SCENARIO/results-WITH/WITHOUT_SUBSIDENCE-year2033/2093. All data files with suffix .h5 can be accessible through Python h5py, and all data files with suffix of .dat can be imported by Python pandas. Mesh file with .exo can be visualized through Paraview or read by Python netCDF. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) project is a research effort to reduce uncertainty in the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) by developing a predictive understanding of Arctic tundra ecosystems underlain by permafrost and to quantify feedbacks from the Arctic tundra to the Earth system. NGEE Arctic is supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. Over Phases 1–3, observations made by the NGEE Arctic team across a gradient of permafrost landscapes in Arctic Alaska improved the representation of tundra processes in the land surface component of E3SM (the E3SM Land Model, ELM). Model improvements emphasized unique aspects of permafrost environments and explored reductions in model complexity while retaining predictive power. The Arctic-informed ELM developed by NGEE Arctic has been used to make novel predictions on processes ranging from permafrost thaw to soil biogeochemical cycling to Earth system feedbacks associated with the unique characteristics of tundra plants. In Phase 4, the NGEE Arctic team is evaluating our new predictive understanding under novel conditions across the Arctic domain. In collaboration with partners at long-term pan-Arctic research sites we are examining whether an Arctic-informed ELM can faithfully simulate interactions among surface and subsurface processes at site, regional, and pan-Arctic scales. In turn, we are using variety of tools to dynamically extend and evaluate ELM inference, with an emphasis on data synthesis and pan-Arctic model evaluation, reintegration of code with an evolving E3SM, scaling across heterogeneous Arctic landscapes, and the appropriate representation of the impacts of increasingly frequent Arctic disturbances.

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > PRECIPITATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark matter isocurvature from curvature

Isocurvature fluctuations, where the relative number density of particle species spatially varies, can be generated from initially adiabatic, or curvature, fluctuations if the various species fall out of or were never in thermal equilibrium. The freezing of the thermal relic dark matter abundance is one such case, but for modes that are still outside the horizon the amplitude is highly suppressed and originates from the small change in the local expansion rate due to the local space curvature produced by the curvature fluctuation. We establish a simple separate-universe method for calculating this generation that applies to both freeze-in and freeze-out models, identify three critical epochs for this process, and give general scaling behaviors for the amplitude in each case: the freezing epoch, the kinetic decoupling epoch and matter-radiation equality. Freeze-out models are typically dominated by spatially modulated annihilation from the latter epochs and can generate much larger isocurvature fluctuations compared with typical freeze-in models, albeit still very small and observationally allowed by cosmic microwave background measurements. Here, we illustrate these results with concrete models where the dark matter interactions are vector or scalar mediated.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alchemy: A Model-Based Approach for 2D to 3D Autonomous Nuclear System Design

Engineering design of nuclear power plant (NPP) piping and equipment systems frequently bypasses crucial 2D system planning, instead moving straight to 3D modeling. This often leads to designs that exceed building envelope constraints, forcing expensive and time-consuming redesigns. When 2D modeling is employed, it typically involves labor-intensive manual workflows that convert 2D drawings into 3D models, resulting in inefficiencies and errors across design iterations. These workflows further suffer from poor software interoperability and dependence on proprietary software ecosystems, thereby contributing to schedule delays and cost overruns. This paper presents Alchemy, an autonomous framework that transforms 2D system definitions into Industry Foundation Classes (IFC)-compliant 3D building information models (BIMs) for expediting nuclear facility design at the conceptual preliminary phase. Using a model-based approach, the framework treats the 2D system diagram as the central reference model employed to automatically generate all subsequent outputs, ensuring consistency between the system definition and the resulting physical design. A web-based interface enables engineers to define hierarchical system topologies including associated equipment, geometric properties, and connectivity requirements. A two-phase equipment layout optimization algorithm automatically computes collision-free spatial configurations within predefined building envelopes. An artificial intelligence (AI)-assisted pipe routing module then generates orthogonal, collision-free routing paths, allowing the user to select either an A* search-based method or an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO)-based method. All outputs are authored natively in IFC format, relying on open-source technologies and standardized formats in order to ensure extensibility and eliminate proprietary software dependencies. The proposed framework is validated on two representative pressurized-water reactor (PWR)-based case studies, for which it autonomously generates IFC-compliant 3D models in minutes, drastically reducing workflows that typically require hours of manual effort. The generated model demonstrates topologically correct equipment placement, physically plausible spatial relationships, and collision-free pipe routing consistent with known PWR loop configurations. This work represents a foundational step toward digital engineering for nuclear facility preliminary design, with future ongoing development targeting design code compliance and expanded system complexity.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Stock-specific spatial overlap among seabird predators and Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon suggests a mechanism for predation during early marine residence

Abstract Objective Because predation is thought to be the primary source of natural mortality for juvenile salmon first entering the ocean, we sought to identify regions where, on average, stock-specific spatial overlap between the distribution of threatened and endangered juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and abundant fish-eating seabirds (common murres Uria aalge and sooty shearwaters Ardenna grisea) suggests the greatest potential for ocean predation risk to juvenile Chinook Salmon. Methods The relative abundance and spatial distribution of seabird predators and juvenile Chinook Salmon were quantified as part of long-term ecosystem surveys during May 2003–2012 and June 2003–2022. Genetic stock identification methods were used to assign individual fish to their respective stock groups. Stock-specific species distribution models then generated maps and indices of average annual spatial overlap between predators and prey within the survey area. Result There is unequivocal evidence for spatial overlap between common murres, sooty shearwaters, and five genetic groups of interior and lower Columbia River juvenile Chinook Salmon. We found strongly positive (≥0.70) spatial correlations between predator and prey densities in both May and June, although spatial overlap was, in general, greater during May. The region of highest spatial overlap occurred on the inner continental shelf between the Columbia River mouth (46.2°N) and Grays Harbor (47.0°N), a region at the beginning of the juvenile salmon migratory pathway that is strongly affected by freshwater outflow from the river. Conclusion Our findings support the idea that ocean avian predation during early marine residence has the potential to affect marine survival of juvenile Chinook Salmon and should be further investigated to better inform and implement ecological models and possible recovery actions for Chinook Salmon populations of the Columbia River basin.

Zamon, Jeannette E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mixing of the Connecticut River Plume During Ambient Flood Tides: Spatial Heterogeneity and Contributions of Bottom–Generated and Interfacial Mixing

The Connecticut River plume is influenced by energetic ambient tides in the Long Island Sound receiving waters. The objectives of this modeling study are (a) characterizing the spatial heterogeneity of turbulent buoyancy fluxes, (b) partitioning turbulent buoyancy fluxes into bottom-generated and interfacial shear contributions, and (c) quantifying contributions to plume-integrated mixing within the tidal plume. The plume formed during ambient flood tides under low river discharge, spring tides, and no winds is analyzed. Turbulent buoyancy fluxes (B) and depth-integrated B through the plume (Bd) are characterized by pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Strong mixing (Bd ~ 10 –5 -10 –4 m 3 /s 3 ) occurs near the mouth, in the nearfield plume turning region, over shoals, and nearshore shallow areas. Low to moderate mixing (Bd ~ 10 –8 -10 –6 m 3 /s 3 ) occupies half the plume. Buoyancy fluxes are first partitioned based on the depth of the shear stress minimum between plume-generated and bottom-generated shear maxima. Four other tested partitioning methods are based on open channel flow and stratified shear flow parameterizations. Interfacial and bottom-generated shear contribute to different areas of intense and moderate mixing. All methods indicate a significant plume mixing role for bottom-generated mixing, but interfacial mixing is a bigger contributor. Plume-integrated total and interfacial mixing peak at max ambient flood and the timing of peak bottom-generated mixing varies among partitioning methods. Two-thirds of the mixing occurs in concentrated intense mixing areas. A parameter space with the ambient tidal Froude number and plume thickness to depth ratio as axes indicates many tidally modulated plumes are moderately to dominantly influenced by bottom-generated tidal mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Linking transportation agent-based model ($\mathrm{ABM}$) outputs with micro-urban social types ($\mathrm{MUSTs}$) via typology transfer for improved community relevance

The human relationship with transportation is shaped by social, economic, demographic, and urban form variables, or socio-spatial factors. The spatial dynamics of these are key to generating and interpreting outputs of transportation models that are most relevant for a community and the diverse mobility needs of its members. Here we present a typology transfer framework, grounded in socio-spatial dynamics shaping people's mobility, to take transportation-themed regional mobility model outcomes, in this case from two agent-based models (ABMs), and extrapolate them to other cities, with less time and resource intensity than new ABM development. The typology transfer process first identifies micro-urban social types (MUSTs) using socio-spatial factors, then defines city types based on spatial patterns of MUSTs to assess across which cities transfer results are likely to best hold. Lastly, a typology transfer multiplier matrix extrapolates a given variable, in our case the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric, to another city. The full process demonstration uses ABM results from Chicago (POLARIS model) and San Francisco (BEAM model), applying them to New York City. We discuss how MEP or other outputs can be appropriately estimated and used for integrated, human-centered mobility analysis. Key findings include that this MUST framework of user-defined dependent and independent variables allows tailoring ABM results and interpretations to specific community needs and data availability. Findings clarify that positive outcomes can be targeted towards user groups, based on sociospatial characteristics, using a typology approach, such as inclusive access to mobility choices, transportation affordability, and greater efficiency in resource use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of Scenario Generation Capabilities in the ExaSGD Project

High-fidelity renewable energy scenarios and rare-event high-impact contingencies are essential for modeling operations and infrastructure expansion of the next generation power grids using exascale computing resources. As the ExaSGD project progressed, our capabilities for generating scenarios for modeling wind power output at multiple wind farms significantly improved, evolving from the use of independent random perturbations to importance sampling-based techniques capturing representative spatial-temporal relations. Contingency generation also improved, evolving from standard N-1 techniques to probabilistic models of infrastructure damage resulting from extreme weather events. We review the developments in the realistic intermittent-energy scenario forecasting and extreme-event contingency creation as the ExaSGD project progressed and discuss the future work in these areas.

economic dispatch↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multiscale influenza forecasting

Abstract Influenza forecasting in the United States (US) is complex and challenging due to spatial and temporal variability, nested geographic scales of interest, and heterogeneous surveillance participation. Here we present Dante, a multiscale influenza forecasting model that learns rather than prescribes spatial, temporal, and surveillance data structure and generates coherent forecasts across state, regional, and national scales. We retrospectively compare Dante’s short-term and seasonal forecasts for previous flu seasons to the Dynamic Bayesian Model (DBM), a leading competitor. Dante outperformed DBM for nearly all spatial units, flu seasons, geographic scales, and forecasting targets. Dante’s sharper and more accurate forecasts also suggest greater public health utility. Dante placed 1st in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s prospective 2018/19 FluSight challenge in both the national and regional competition and the state competition. The methodology underpinning Dante can be used in other seasonal disease forecasting contexts having nested geographic scales of interest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC 2 ) v1.1: an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator for large-scale models

Abstract. Climate models are essential for our comprehensive understanding of Earth's atmosphere and can provide critical insights on future changes decades ahead. Because of these critical roles, today's climate models are continuously being developed and evaluated using constraining observations and measurements obtained by satellites, airborne, and ground-based instruments. Instrument simulators can provide a bridge between the measured or retrieved quantities and their sampling in models and field observations while considering instrument sensitivity limitations. Here we present the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2), an open-source ground-based lidar and radar instrument simulator and subcolumn generator, specifically designed for large-scale models, in particular climate models, but also applicable to high-resolution model output. EMC2 provides a flexible framework enabling direct comparison of model output with ground-based observations, including generation of subcolumns that may statistically represent finer model spatial resolutions. In addition, EMC2 emulates ground-based (and air- or space-borne) measurements while remaining faithful to large-scale models' physical assumptions implemented in their cloud or radiation schemes. The simulator uses either single particle or bulk particle size distribution lookup tables, depending on the selected scheme approach, to perform the forward calculations. To facilitate model evaluation, EMC2 also includes three hydrometeor classification methods, namely, radar- and sounding-based cloud and precipitation detection and classification, lidar-based phase classification, and a Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project Observational Simulator Package (COSP) lidar simulator emulator. The software is written in Python, is easy to use, and can be straightforwardly customized for different models, radars, and lidars. Following the description of the logic, functionality, features, and software structure of EMC2, we present a case study of highly supercooled mixed-phase cloud based on measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE). We compare observations with the application of EMC2 to outputs from four configurations of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model (ModelE3) in single-column model (SCM) mode and from a large-eddy simulation (LES) model. We show that two of the four ModelE3 configurations can form and maintain highly supercooled precipitating cloud for several hours, consistent with observations and LES. While our focus is on one of these ModelE3 configurations, which performed slightly better in this case study, both of these configurations and the LES results post-processed with EMC2 generally provide reasonable agreement with observed lidar and radar variables. As briefly demonstrated here, EMC2 can provide a lightweight and flexible framework for comparing the results of both large-scale and high-resolution models directly with observations, with relatively little overhead and multiple options for achieving consistency with model microphysical or radiation scheme physics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recoil imaging for dark matter, neutrinos, and physics beyond the Standard Model

Recoil imaging entails the detection of spatially resolved ionization tracks generated by particle interactions. This is a highly sought-after capability in many classes of detector, with broad applications across particle and astroparticle physics. However, at low energies, where ionization signatures are small in size, recoil imaging only seems to be a practical goal for micro-pattern gas detectors. This white paper outlines the physics case for recoil imaging, and puts forward a decadal plan to advance towards the directional detection of low-energy recoils with sensitivity and resolution close to fundamental performance limits. The science case covered includes: the discovery of dark matter into the neutrino fog, directional detection of sub-MeV solar neutrinos, the precision study of coherent-elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering, the detection of solar axions, the measurement of the Migdal effect, X-ray polarimetry, and several other applied physics goals. We also outline the R&D programs necessary to test concepts that are crucial to advance detector performance towards their fundamental limit: single primary electron sensitivity with full 3D spatial resolution at the $\sim$100 micron-scale. These advancements include: the use of negative ion drift, electron counting with high-definition electronic readout, time projection chambers with optical readout, and the possibility for nuclear recoil tracking in high-density gases such as argon. We also discuss the readout and electronics systems needed to scale-up such detectors to the ton-scale and beyond.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Three-dimensional stacking of canted antiferromagnetism and pseudospin current in undoped Sr 2 IrO 4 : Symmetry analysis and microscopic model realization

Recent optical second-harmonic generation experiments observed unexpected broken spatial symmetries in the undoped spin-orbit Mott insulator Sr2 IrO4, leading to intensive debates on the nature of its ground state. Here we propose that it is a canted antiferromagnetism (CAF) with a hidden order of circulating staggered pseudospin current. Symmetry analysis shows that a proper c-axis stacking of the CAF and the pseudospin current lead to a magnetoelectric coexistence state that breaks the twofold rotation, inversion, and time-reversal symmetries, consistent with experimental observations. We construct a three-dimensional Hubbard model with spin-orbit coupling and structural distortion for the five localized 5d Wannier orbitals centered at Ir sites and demonstrate the microscopic realization of the desired coexistence state in a wide range of band parameters via a combination of self-consistent Hartree-Fock and variational calculations.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning inversion of gravity data for detection of CO 2 plumes in overlying aquifers

In this work, we developed an effective U-Net based deep learning (DL) model for inversion of surface gravity data on a rectangular grid to predict 2-D high-resolution subsurface CO 2 distribution along a vertical cross-section due to CO 2 leakage through a wellbore within a deep CO 2 storage reservoir. We used synthetic data to model two types of CO 2 leakage scenarios: one CO 2 plume in a shallow aquifer (single plume case), and two plumes present at different depths (double plume case). The 3-D synthetic plume samples were created by sampling among predetermined CO 2 plume depths, saturations, and volumes. The corresponding surface gravity data on a rectangular grid were generated by a 3-D forward model. The U-Net model detected 72% of single-plume samples, and one or both plumes in 75% of double-plume samples. Most of the undetected single plumes have small gravity field strengths below the typical noise level of 5 μGal. This model generated reproducible, reliable predictions with acceptable errors and demonstrated improved spatial resolution over the conventional least-squares inversion. In contrast to the conventional least-squares inversion, which often overestimates the size of its target and underestimates its density, this U-Net model accurately delineated the boundary of a target. Furthermore, this DL inversion detected deep, small, or low saturation CO 2 plumes that are often more difficult to resolve with conventional gravity inversion methods. We note the limitations of this feasibility study, including the use of synthetic data with regular CO 2 plume shapes, and the prediction of a 2-D plume cross-section rather than the full 3-D plume, as well, we recognize the lower detection fraction for double-plume scenarios. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that DL gravity inversion is a promising and potentially superior method to conventional least-squares inversion. Our U-Net based deep learning inversion approach may be adapted for inversion of other types of geophysical data. DL inversion can facilitate near real-time monitoring of geologic carbon sequestration to provide site operators with prompt information about subsurface CO 2 distribution for risk management and mitigation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Universal model of Floquet operator Krylov space

It is shown that the stroboscopic time evolution under a Floquet unitary, in any spatial dimension, and of any Hermitian operator, can be mapped to an operator Krylov space, which is identical to that generated by the edge operator of the noninteracting Floquet transverse-field Ising model (TFIM) in one-spatial dimension, and with inhomogeneous Ising and transverse field couplings. The latter has four topological phases reflected by the absence (topologically trivial) or presence (topologically nontrivial) of edge modes at 0 and/or π quasienergies. It is shown that the Floquet dynamics share certain universal features characterized by how the Krylov parameters vary in the topological phase diagram of the Floquet TFIM with homogeneous couplings. Furthermore, these results are highlighted through examples, all chosen for numerical convenience to be in one spatial dimension: nonintegrable Floquet spin 1/2 chains and Floquet Z 3 clock model where the latter hosts period-tripled edge modes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2023

Understanding the compound flood risk along the coast of the contiguous United States

Abstract. Compound flooding is a type of flood event caused by multiple flood drivers. The associated risk has usually been assessed using statistics-based analyses or hydrodynamics-based numerical models. This study proposes a compound flood (CF) risk assessment (CFRA) framework for coastal regions in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this framework, a large-scale river model is coupled with a global ocean reanalysis dataset to (a) evaluate the CF exposure related to the coastal backwater effects on river basins, and (b) generate spatially distributed data for analyzing the CF hazard using a bivariate statistical model of river discharge and storm surge. The two kinds of risk are also combined to achieve a holistic understanding of the continental-scale CF risk. The estimated CF risk shows remarkable inter- and intra-basin variabilities along the CONUS coast with more variabilities in the CF hazard over the US west and Gulf coastal basins. Different risk assessment methods present significantly different patterns in a few key regions such as the San Francisco Bay area, the lower Mississippi River, and Puget Sound. Our results highlight the need to weigh different CF risk measures and avoid using single statistics-based or hydrodynamics-based CFRAs. Uncertainty sources in these CFRAs include the use of gauge observations, which cannot account for the flow physics or resolve the spatial variability of risks, and underestimations of the flood extremes and the dependence of CF drivers in large-scale models, highlighting the importance of understanding the CF risks for developing a more robust CFRA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗