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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2025

Detecting outbreaks using a spatial latent field

In this paper, we present a method for estimating the infection-rate of a disease as a spatial-temporal field. Our data comprises time-series case-counts of symptomatic patients in various areal units of a region. We extend an epidemiological model, originally designed for a single areal unit, to accommodate multiple units. The field estimation is framed within a Bayesian context, utilizing a parameterized Gaussian random field as a spatial prior. We apply an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample the posterior distribution of the model parameters condition on COVID-19 case-count data from three adjacent counties in New Mexico, USA. Our results suggest that the correlation between epidemiological dynamics in neighboring regions helps regularize estimations in areas with high variance (i.e., poor quality) data. Using the calibrated epidemic model, we forecast the infection-rate over each areal unit and develop a simple anomaly detector to signal new epidemic waves. Our findings show that anomaly detector based on estimated infection-rates outperforms a conventional algorithm that relies solely on case-counts.

Safta, Cosmin [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-C↗

DOE OSTI2024

Utah FORGE 3-2535: Joint Imaging of Fracture Growth and Estimation of Fracture Properties During EGS Development - 2024 Annual Workshop Presentation

This is a presentation on the Joint Electromagnetic/Seismic/InSAR Imaging of Spatial-Temporal Fracture Growth and Estimation of Physical Fracture Properties During EGS Resource Development by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, presented by David Alumbaugh. This is a video presentation on developing a set of technologies and workflow to image induced fracture generation and growth for an Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS). Using a combination of passive seismic and active source borehole EM and InSAR technology it is anticipated imaging and fracture generation and growth monitoring will be actualized. The workflow will provide a template for imaging induced fracture systems for future EGS systems. This presentation was featured in the Utah FORGE R&D Annual Workshop on August 13, 2024.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence for Enhancing Multiscale Analysis: Buildings Focus

This project aims to develop multi-scale building energy data, potentially improving the representation of the U.S. buildings sector in GCAM-USA, an U.S.-focused human-energy-Earth systems model. Existing building energy datasets are typically limited to national or regional levels, which constrains the ability of models to capture fine-scale human-energy-Earth systems interactions and reduces their relevance for decision-making on issues such as energy security, resilience, and energy planning. By leveraging AI and advanced data integration methods, this work fuses multiple existing datasets to enhance the physical and geographic representation of both residential and commercial building energy use. So far, progress includes processing residential building data, designing the data structure for commercial buildings, and testing AI approaches for integrating datasets and addressing spatial-temporal gaps. This effort can not only advances GCAM-USA’s capability in modeling the buildings sector but also supports broader DOE missions, such as developing digital testbeds, enhancing grid resilience analysis, and improving building–energy system modeling at decision-relevant scales.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Characterization and Exhumation of Northwest San Juan Basin Area, NM

The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of PV Fleet Performance in Western United States During August 2020 Extreme Heat Wave

Starting in June 2020 through the end of that year, the western and central United States experienced a widespread heat wave and drought, which resulted in US$5.44 billion (CPI-adjusted) worth of damages. The ongoing heat and drought produced record large wildfires across the region, responsible for an additional US$19.9 billion in damage. These natural disasters directly impacted the energy system in the western US, leading to power blackouts in August 2020. In this work, we analyze the NLR PV Fleets data set, focusing on the geographic area covered by the Western Coordinating Council (WECC). We find that over the 10-day period from August 14 through 24, the median PV system produced 12% lower energy than expected, with some locations experiencing total losses of around 30%. Analyzing the spatial-temporal structure of the data and supplementing with limited operational current and voltage data where available, we find that system underperformance was more strongly impacted by irradiance reduction from wildfire smoke rather than by the high heat itself.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗