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At least 37 records · Page 2

Observed form and action of the magnetic energy release in flares

The observable spatio-temporal characteristics of the energy release in flares and their association with the magnetic environment and tracers of field dynamics are reviewed. The observations indicate that impulsive phase manifestations, like particle acceleration, may be related to the formation of neutral sheets at the interface between interacting bipoles, but that the site for the bulk of the energy release is within closed loops rather than at the interaction site.

Machado, Marcos E.↗

Causality-respecting adaptive refinement for PINNs: enabling precise interface evolution in phase field modeling

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for solving physical systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). However, their accuracy in dynamical systems, particularly those involving sharp moving boundaries with complex initial morphologies, remains a challenge. Here, this study introduces an approach combining residual-based adaptive refinement (RBAR) with causality-informed training to enhance the performance of PINNs in solving spatio-temporal PDEs. Our method employs a three-step iterative process: initial causality-based training, RBAR-guided domain refinement, and subsequent causality training on the refined mesh. Applied to the Allen-Cahn equation, a widely-used model in phase field simulations, our approach demonstrates significant improvements in solution accuracy and computational efficiency over traditional PINNs. Notably, we observe an ‘overshoot and relocate’ phenomenon in dynamic cases with complex morphologies, showcasing the method’s adaptive error correction capabilities. This synergistic interaction between RBAR and causality training enables accurate capture of interface evolution, even in challenging scenarios where traditional PINNs fail. Our framework not only resolves the limitations of uniform refinement strategies but also provides a generalizable methodology for solving a broad range of spatio-temporal PDEs. The enhanced performance of the RBAR–causality combined framework demonstrates its strong potential for advancing PINN-based modeling of physical systems characterized by complex, evolving interfaces.

Allen-Cahn equations↗

Functional organization of primate translational vestibulo-ocular reflexes and effects of unilateral labyrinthectomy

Translational vestibulo-ocular reflexes (trVORs) are characterized by distinct spatio-temporal properties and sensitivities that are proportional to the inverse of viewing distance. Anodal (inhibitory) labyrinthine stimulation (100 microA, < 2 s) during motion decreased the high-pass filtered dynamics, as well as horizontal trVOR sensitivity and its dependence on viewing distance. Cathodal (excitatory) currents had opposite effects. Translational VORs were also affected after unilateral labyrinthectomy. Animals lost their ability to modulate trVOR sensitivity as a function of viewing distance acutely after the lesion. These deficits partially recovered over time, albeit a significant reduction in trVOR sensitivity as a function of viewing distance remained in compensated animals. During fore-aft motion, the effects of unilateral labyrinthectomy were more dramatic. Both acute and compensated animals permanently lost their ability to modulate fore-aft trVOR responses as a function of target eccentricity. These results suggest that (1) the dynamics and viewing distance-dependent properties of the trVORs are very sensitive to changes in the resting firing rate of vestibular afferents and, consequently, vestibular nuclei neurons; (2) the most irregularly firing primary otolith afferents that are most sensitive to labyrinthine electrical stimulation might contribute to reflex dynamics and sensitivity; (3) inputs from both labyrinths are necessary for the generation of the translational VORs.

Non-NASA Center↗

ICED: An Integrated CGRA Framework Enabling DFVS-Aware Acceleration

oarse-grained reconfigurable arrays (CGRAs) are a promising solution to enable energy-efficient acceleration of applications from different domains. By leveraging reconfiguration at the functional level, they can adapt to significantly different computational patterns. Existing CGRA mapping approaches extract instruction-level parallelism, exploit loop-pipelining opportunities, guarantee the data dependency, and target high throughput of a given loop. However, the recurrence data-dependency in the DFG and the mismatch between required and available computing/communication resources complicate the mapping, and might lead to significant unbalances in the utilization of the CGRA's tiles. This results in wasted power for tiles with low utilization. Applying dynamic voltage and frequency scaling (DVFS) can potentially solve this challenge and improve energy efficiency by adjusting voltage and frequency of different tiles independently. CGRAs have also been successful in accelerating data-dependent streaming applications. However, in these applications, the execution time of each kernel in the pipeline might dynamically vary depending on the characteristics of the input. This also leads to under-utilization of resources for the dynamically changing kernels that do not limit the application throughput. DVFS can also improve energy efficiency for these applications by dynamically changing the voltage and frequency levels of tiles that host non performance-constraining kernels. This paper proposes ICEDTEA -- an integrated DVFS-aware framework to map applications on CGRAs that support power islands. ICEDTEA proposes a CGRA architecture supporting DVFS islands at varying granularity (from a single tile to a group of tiles) and the related DVFS-aware compilation and mapping toolchain. ICEDTEA is the first work that introduces DVFS support for spatio-temporal CGRAs at power-island levels. The experimental evaluation shows that ICEDTEA improves average utilization by 2.3$\times$ and energy-efficiency by 1.32$\times$ over a conventional CGRA. With streaming applications, ICEDTEA improves energy efficiency by 1.12$\times$ over a state-of-the-art CGRA that introduces partial dynamic reconfiguration to adapt to variations in kernels' throughput.

Tan, Cheng↗

Resolving turbulent magnetohydrodynamics: a hybrid operator-diffusion framework

We present a hybrid machine learning framework that combines physics-informed neural operators (PINOs) with score-based generative diffusion models to simulate the full spatio-temporal evolution of two-dimensional, incompressible, resistive magnetohydrodynamic turbulence across a broad range of Reynolds numbers (Re). The framework leverages the equation-constrained generalization capabilities of PINOs to predict coherent, low-frequency dynamics, while a conditional diffusion model stochastically corrects high-frequency residuals, enabling accurate modeling of fully developed turbulence. Trained on a comprehensive ensemble of high-fidelity simulations with Re ϵ {100, 250, 500, 750, 1000, 3000, 10000}, the approach achieves state-of-the-art accuracy in regimes previously inaccessible to deterministic surrogates. At Re = 1000 and 3000, the model faithfully reconstructs the full spectral energy distributions of both velocity and magnetic fields late into the simulation, capturing non-Gaussian statistics, intermittent structures, and cross-field correlations with high fidelity. At extreme turbulence levels (Re = 10 000), it remains the first surrogate capable of recovering the high-wavenumber evolution of the magnetic field, preserving large-scale morphology and enabling statistically meaningful predictions.

Diffusion-Integrated Neural Operators↗

Learning turbulent flows with generative models for super resolution and sparse flow reconstruction

Neural operators are promising surrogates for dynamical systems but when trained with standard L 2 losses they tend to oversmooth fine-scale turbulent structures. Here, we show that combining operator learning with generative modeling overcomes this limitation. We consider three practical turbulent-flow challenges where conventional neural operators fail: spatio-temporal super-resolution, forecasting, and sparse flow reconstruction. For Schlieren jet super-resolution, an adversarially trained neural operator (adv-NO) reduces the energy-spectrum error by 15 × while preserving sharp gradients at neural operator-like inference cost. For 3D homogeneous isotropic turbulence, adv-NO trained on only 160 timesteps from a single trajectory forecasts accurately for five eddy-turnover times and offers 114 × wall-clock speed-up at inference than the baseline diffusion-based forecasters, enabling near-real-time rollouts. For reconstructing cylinder wake flows from highly sparse Particle Tracking Velocimetry-like inputs, a conditional generative model infers full 3D velocity and pressure fields with correct phase alignment and statistics. These advances enable accurate reconstruction and forecasting at low compute cost, bringing near-real-time analysis and control within reach in experimental and computational fluid mechanics.

Fluid dynamics↗

Resolving the dynamic correlated disorder in KTa 1- x Nb x O 3

Understanding the complex temporal and spatial correlations of ions in disordered perovskite oxides is critical to rationalize their functional properties. Here, in this study, we provide new insights into the longstanding controversy regarding the off-centering of transition metal ions in the archetypal ferroelectric alloy KTa 1-x Nb x O 3 (KTN). By mapping the full energy (E) and wavevector (Q) dependence of the dynamical structure factor S(Q, E) using neutron scattering, and rationalizing our observations with atomistic simulations leveraging machine learning, we fully resolve the static vs dynamic nature of diffuse scattering sheets, as well as their composition (x) and temperature dependence. Our first-principles simulations, extended with machine-learning molecular dynamics, reproduce both inelastic neutron spectra and diffuse features, and establish how dynamically-correlated transition metal off-centerings couple to phonons, unifying local and collective viewpoints. This study sheds new light into an exemplary ferroelectric systems and shows the importance of mapping the full S(Q, E) to reveal critical spatio-temporal correlations of atomic disorder from which functional properties emerge.

42 ENGINEERING↗

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A model for the characterization of the spatial properties in vestibular neurons

Quantitative study of the static and dynamic response properties of some otolith-sensitive neurons has been difficult in the past partly because their responses to different linear acceleration vectors exhibited no "null" plane and a dependence of phase on stimulus orientation. The theoretical formulation of the response ellipse provides a quantitative way to estimate the spatio-temporal properties of such neurons. Its semi-major axis gives the direction of the polarization vector (i.e., direction of maximal sensitivity) and it estimates the neuronal response for stimulation along that direction. In addition, the semi-minor axis of the ellipse provides an estimate of the neuron's maximal sensitivity in the "null" plane. In this paper, extracellular recordings from otolith-sensitive vestibular nuclei neurons in decerebrate rats were used to demonstrate the practical application of the method. The experimentally observed gain and phase dependence on the orientation angle of the acceleration vector in a head-horizontal plane was described and satisfactorily fit by the response ellipse model. In addition, the model satisfactorily fits neuronal responses in three-dimensions and unequivocally demonstrates that the response ellipse formulation is the general approach to describe quantitatively the spatial properties of vestibular neurons.

Non-NASA Center↗

Nonlinear stability of oscillatory core-annular flow: A generalized Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation with time periodic coefficients

In this paper the nonlinear stability of two-phase core-annular flow in a pipe is examined when the acting pressure gradient is modulated by time harmonic oscillations and viscosity stratification and interfacial tension is present. An exact solution of the Navier-Stokes equations is used as the background state to develop an asymptotic theory valid for thin annular layers, which leads to a novel nonlinear evolution describing the spatio-temporal evolution of the interface. The evolution equation is an extension of the equation found for constant pressure gradients and generalizes the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation with dispersive effects found by Papageorgiou, Maldarelli & Rumschitzki, Phys. Fluids A 2(3), 1990, pp. 340-352, to a similar system with time periodic coefficients. The distinct regimes of slow and moderate flow are considered and the corresponding evolution is derived. Certain solutions are described analytically in the neighborhood of the first bifurcation point by use of multiple scales asymptotics. Extensive numerical experiments, using dynamical systems ideas, are carried out in order to evaluate the effect of the oscillatory pressure gradient on the solutions in the presence of a constant pressure gradient.

Coward, Adrian V.↗

Parallel-in-Time Solution of Hyperbolic PDE Systems via Characteristic-Variable Block Preconditioning

We consider the parallel-in-time solution of both linear and nonlinear hyperbolic partial differential equation (PDE) systems in one spatial dimension. In the nonlinear setting, the discretized equations are solved with a preconditioned residual iteration based on a global linearization. The linear(ized) equation systems are approximately solved parallel-in-time using a block preconditioner applied in the characteristic variables of the underlying linear(ized) hyperbolic PDE. This change of variables is motivated by the observation that intervariable coupling between characteristic variables is weak, at least locally where spatio-temporal variations in the eigenvectors of the associated flux Jacobian are sufficiently small, while that between the original variables is not. For an ℓ-dimensional system of PDEs, applying the preconditioner consists of solving a sequence of ℓ scalar linear(ized)-advection-like problems, each associated with a different characteristic wave-speed in the underlying linear(ized) PDE. Furthermore, we approximately solve these linear advection problems using multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT); however, any other suitable parallel-in-time method could be used. Numerical examples are shown for the (linear) acoustics equations in heterogeneous media and for the (nonlinear) shallow water equations and Euler equations of gas dynamics with shocks and rarefactions. For many test problems, the solver converges in just a handful of iterations and with mesh-independent convergence rates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Interactive multiscale modeling to bridge atomic properties and electrochemical performance in Li-CO 2 battery design

Li-CO 2 batteries are promising energy storage systems due to their high theoretical energy density and CO 2 fixation capability, relying on reversible Li 2 CO 3 /C formation during discharge/charge cycles. Here, we present a multiscale modeling framework integrating Density Functional Theory (DFT), Ab-Initio Molecular Dynamics (AIMD), classical Molecular Dynamics (MD), and Finite Element Analysis (FEA) to investigate atomic and cell-level properties. The considered Li-CO 2 battery consists of a lithium metal anode, an ionic liquid electrolyte, and a carbon cloth cathode with Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 catalyst. DFT and AIMD determined the electrical conductivities of Sb 0.67 Bi 1.33 Te 3 and Li 2 CO 3 using the Kubo–Greenwood formalism and studied the CO 2 reduction mechanism on the cathode catalyst. MD simulations calculated the CO 2 diffusion coefficient, Li + transference number, ionic conductivity, and Li + solvation structure. The FEA model, parameterized with atomistic simulation data, reproduced the available experimental voltage–capacity profile at 1 mA/cm 2 and revealed spatio-temporal variations in Li 2 CO 3 /C deposition, porosity, and CO 2 concentration dependence on discharge rates in the cathode. Accordingly, Li 2 CO 3 can form large and thin film deposits, leading to dispersed and local porosity changes at 0.1 mA/cm 2 and 1 mA/cm 2 , respectively. The capacity decreases exponentially from 81,570 mAh/g at 0.1 mA/cm 2 to 6200 mAh/g at 1 mA/cm 2 , due to pore clogging from excessive discharge product deposition that limits CO 2 transport to the cathode interior. Therefore, the performance of Li-CO 2 batteries can be improved by enhancing CO 2 transport, regulating Li 2 CO 3 deposition, and optimizing cathode architecture.

Battery performance↗

A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain

This study presents a new physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for simulating lake methane (CH 4 ) emissions at regional scales. The new model, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane), rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach that enables the simulation of CH 4 emissions across a large number of lakes. Building on the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) that simulates the lake physics, we develop a suite of biogeochemical modules to simulate transient dynamics of organic Carbon (C), Oxygen (O 2 ), and CH 4 . We first test the performance of FLaMe-v1.0 by analyzing physical and biogeochemical processes in two theoretical lakes with characteristics that can be considered representative for many lakes (an oligotrophic, deep lake driven by cold climate versus a eutrophic, shallow lake driven by warm climate). Next, we evaluate the model by comparing simulated and observed timeseries of CH 4 emissions in four well-surveyed lakes. We then apply FLaMe-v1.0 at the European scale to evaluate simulated diffusive and ebullitive lake CH 4 fluxes against in-situ measurements in both boreal and central European regions. Finally, we provide a first assessment of the spatio-temporal variability in CH 4 emissions from European lakes with a surface area comprised between 0.1–1000 km 2 (n= 108 407, total area = 1.33 × 105 km 2 ), indicating a total emission of 0.97 ± 0.23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , with the uncertainty constrained by combining FLaMe-v1.0 and machine learning techniques. Moreover, 30 % and 70 % of these CH 4 emissions are through diffusive and ebullitive pathways, respectively. Annually averaged CH 4 emission rates per unit lake area during 2010–2016 have a South-to-North decreasing gradient, resulting in a mean over the European domain as 7.39 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 . Our simulations reveal a strong seasonality (with ice-blocking effects accounted for) in European lake CH 4 emissions, with nearly ten times higher emissions during late summer than during winter. This pronounced seasonal variation highlights the importance of accounting for the sub-annual variability in CH 4 emissions to accurately constrain regional CH 4 budgets. In the future, FLaMe-v1.0 could be embedded into Earth System Models to investigate the feedback between climate warming and global lake CH 4 emissions.

Maisonnier, Manon [Free Univ. of Brussels (Belgium↗

Hybrid learning techniques for scientific data reduction with performance guarantees

The research initiatives supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grant DE-SC0022265 are fundamentally aimed at pioneering advanced machine learning (ML) techniques for scientific data compression within high-performance computing (HPC) environments. This comprehensive body of work addresses the critical challenge posed by the exponential growth of data generated by scientific simulations in domains such as fusion energy, climate modeling, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A core objective is to develop compression algorithms that achieve substantial data reduction—often by orders of magnitude—while rigorously ensuring the fidelity of both the primary data (PD) and scientifically crucial derived quantities of interest (QoI). The methodologies deployed under this grant integrate sophisticated deep learning architectures, prominently featuring autoencoders, advanced generative models like conditional diffusion, and hybrid learning techniques. Key innovations include the development of Guaranteed Autoencoders (GAE) and the Guaranteed Conditional Diffusion with Tensor Correction (GCDTC) framework, which provide explicit, instance-level error bounds on reconstructed data. Furthermore, specialized strategies such as nonlinear constraint satisfaction are employed to preserve the integrity of QoI, a vital requirement for the trustworthiness of downstream scientific analyses. This research also focuses on the design and implementation of scalable, GPU-accelerated software pipelines that seamlessly integrate into existing HPC workflows, ensuring both computational efficiency and practical applicability. The CAESAR framework, for example, unifies foundation and generative models to create an adaptive and efficient compression solution for spatio-temporal scientific data. Collectively, these efforts represent a significant advancement in mitigating the scientific data deluge, enabling more effective data management, accelerated scientific discovery, and optimized utilization of HPC resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Final report- UFL - RAPIDS2: A SciDAC Institute for Computer Science, Data, and Artificial Intelligence

The research initiatives supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Grant DE-SC0022265 are fundamentally aimed at pioneering advanced machine learning (ML) techniques for scientific data compression within high-performance computing (HPC) environments. This comprehensive body of work addresses the critical challenge posed by the exponential growth of data generated by scientific simulations in domains such as fusion energy, climate modeling, and computational fluid dynamics (CFD). A core objective is to develop compression algorithms that achieve substantial data reduction—often by orders of magnitude—while rigorously ensuring the fidelity of both the primary data (PD) and scientifically crucial derived quantities of interest (QoI). The methodologies deployed under this grant integrate sophisticated deep learning architectures, prominently featuring autoencoders, advanced generative models like conditional diffusion, and hybrid learning techniques. Key innovations include the development of Guaranteed Autoencoders (GAE) and the Guaranteed Conditional Diffusion with Tensor Correction (GCDTC) framework, which provide explicit, instance-level error bounds on reconstructed data. Furthermore, specialized strategies such as nonlinear constraint satisfaction are employed to preserve the integrity of QoI, a vital requirement for the trustworthiness of downstream scientific analyses. This research also focuses on the design and implementation of scalable, GPU-accelerated software pipelines that seamlessly integrate into existing HPC workflows, ensuring both computational efficiency and practical applicability. The CAESAR framework, for example, unifies foundation and generative models to create an adaptive and efficient compression solution for spatio-temporal scientific data. Collectively, these efforts represent a significant advancement in mitigating the scientific data deluge, enabling more effective data management, accelerated scientific discovery, and optimized utilization of HPC resources.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multiscale drivers of extreme southern California flooding: ENSO, MJO, North Pacific jet, and atmospheric rivers

Extreme rainfall and flooding, driven by a powerful atmospheric river (AR) and a persistent Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), hit Southern California in February 2024 during the 2023–2024 El Niño, affecting over 10 million people. ARs are key contributors to extreme rainfall and flooding along the U.S. West Coast. Although the AR-MJO link has been documented, its spatio-temporal variability remains a major forecasting and risk-management challenge. Combining precipitation, stream gauge and demographic data, we quantify the physical drivers and population exposure to this extreme event. Leveraging a Lagrangian MJO precipitation tracking algorithm, we unravel the multiscale interactions responsible for the AR’s development. El Niño favored a large, long-lived MJO that interacted with the North Pacific Jet (NPJ) over more than three weeks. The MJO convective outflow modulated the NPJ by inducing negative potential vorticity advection along the tropopause. The ensuing NPJ extension and acceleration induced explosive cyclogenesis, whose AR-driven moisture transport resulted in extreme rainfall.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

Long-term microparticle flux variability indicated by comparison of Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) timed impacts for LDEF's first year in orbit with impact data for the entire 5.77-year orbital lifetime

The electronic sensors of the Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) recorded precise impact times and approximate directions for submicron to approximately 100 micron size particles on all six primary sides of the spacecraft for the first 346 days of the LDEF orbital mission. Previously-reported analyses of the timed impact data have established their spatio-temporal features, including the demonstration that a preponderance of the particles in this regime are orbital debris and that a large fraction of the debris particles are encountered in megameter-size clouds. Short-term fluxes within such clouds can rise several orders of magnitude above the long-term average. These unexpectedly large short-term variations in debris flux raise the question of how representative an indication of the multi-year average flux is given by the nearly one year of timed data. One of the goals of the IDE was to conduct an optical survey of impact sites on detectors that remained active during the entire LDEF mission, to obtain full-mission fluxes. We present here the comparisons and contrasts among the new IDE optical survey impact data, the IDE first-year timed impact data, and impact data from other LDEF micrometeoroid and debris experiments. The following observations are reported: (1) the 5.77 year long-term integrated microparticle impact fluxes recorded by IDE detectors matched the integrated impact fluxes measured by other LDEF investigators for the same period; (2) IDE integrated microparticle impact fluxes varied by factors from 0.5 to 8.3 for LDEF days 1-346, 347-2106 and 1-2106 (5.77 years) on rows 3 (trailing edge, or West), 6 (South side), 12 (North side), and the Earth and Space ends; and (3) IDE integrated microparticle impact fluxes varied less than 3 percent for LDEF days 1-346, 347-2106 and 1-2106 (5.77 years) on row 9 (leading edge, or East). These results give further evidence of the accuracy and internal consistency of the recorded IDE impact data. This leads to the further conclusion that the utility of long-term ratios for impacts on various sides of a stabilized satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) is extremely limited. These observations and their consequences highlight the need for continuous, real time monitoring of the dynamic microparticle environment in LEO.

Simon, Charles G.↗

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗