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At least 37 records · Page 2

Seasonal Cost-Benefit Analysis of Automated Distribution Feeder Upgrades with Advanced Mitigation Technologies

The increasing deployment of distributed solar photovoltaics (DPV) to meet clean energy goals can trigger adverse grid operation issues, such as voltage excursions and the violation of thermal loading constraints of the power delivery elements (e.g., lines and transformers) on the evolving electricity infrastructure. Such integration issues would require distribution upgrades with associated costs to mitigate them and to maintain reliable and resilient grid operating conditions. Traditional distribution network upgrade approaches use a specific single snapshot analysis that is overly conservative. This study considers a multi-time point analysis to capture both moderate (probable bounds) and extreme grid operating conditions using time points such as minimum load with minimum photovoltaics (PV), maximum load with maximum PV, maximum load with minimum PV, and minimum load with maximum PV. Further, this study investigates seasonal variation impacts and associated distribution upgrade costs for a spring season case (March, representing a low load and high PV scenario) and a summer case (July, representing a high load and high PV scenario). Such seasonal analysis will allow system operators to characterize upgrade requirements and associated costs across various periods. Because the spatial distribution of DPV can impact upgrade and associated costs, this study investigates three common DPV deployment scenarios - randomly deployed, close to the substation, and far from the substation - at different penetration levels. Apart from spatial distribution impacts, this project evaluates the techno-economic impacts of the nodal photovoltaic penetration factor (NPPF) for generating the various DPV deployment scenarios at increasing penetration levels. This project investigates the impact of varying nodal PV-to-load ratios using conservative and extreme NPPF values of 3 and 10, respectively. This study investigates the deployment of traditional infrastructure upgrade strategies, such as installing new voltage regulating equipment, transformers and lines replacements, and the activation of advanced inverter functionality (e.g., autonomous volt/VAR) in expanding PV hosting capacity. Existing DPV systems are assumed to operate with the legacy unity power factor, and we considered the possibility of retrofitting such systems with the activation of volt/VAR control as integration standards and regulations continue to evolve to allow such functions. The cost-benefit analysis metrics used in study include distribution upgrade costs, average cost per watt of the upgrade cost, average marginal cost per watt of the upgrade cost, and power losses.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Satellite-derived attributes of cloud vortex systems and their application to climate studies

Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) visible and infrared mosaics are analyzed in conjunction with synoptic meteorological observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and upper-air height to derive composite patterns of cyclonic cloud vortices for the Northern Hemisphere. The patterns reveal variations in the structure and implied dynamics of cyclonic systems at different stages of development that include: (1) increasing vertical symmetry of the lower-level and upper-air circulations and (2) decreasing lower-tropospheric thicknesses and temperature advection, associated with increasing age of the vortex. Cloud vortices are more intense in winter than in summer and typically reach maximum intensity in the short-lived prespiral signature stage. There are major structural differences among frontal wave, polar air, and 'instant occlusion' cyclogenesis types. Cyclones in the dissipation stage may reintensify (deepen), as denoted by the appearance in the imagery of an asymmetric cloud band or a tightened spiral vortex. The satellite-derived statistics on cloud vortex intensity, which are seasonal- and latitude- as well as type-dependent, are applied to a preliminary examination of the synoptic manifestations of seasonal climate variability. An apparently close relationship is found, for two winter and spring seasons, between Northern Hemisphere cyclonic activity and variations in cryosphere variables, particularly the extent of Arctic sea ice. The results may indicate that increased snow and ice extent accompany a southward displacement of cyclonic activity and/or a predominance of deeper systems. However, there is also a strong regional dependence to the ice-synoptics feedback. This study demonstrates the utility of high resolution meteorological satellite imagery for studies of climate variations (climate dynamics).

Carleton, Andrew M.↗

Juniper Pollen Hotspots in the Southwest

Rationale: Juniperus pollen is a major allergen in Texas, Oklahoma, and New Mexico. While the bulk of pollen may be released in rural areas, large amounts of pollen can be transported to urban areas. Major juniper species in the region include: Juniperus ashei, J. virginiana, J. pinchotii, and J. monosperma. Pollen release is virtually continuous beginning in late September with J. pinchotii and ending in May with J. monosperma. Urban areas in the region were evaluated for the potential of overlapping seasons in order to inform sensitive individuals. Methods: Burkard volumetric pollen traps were established for two consecutive spring seasons at 6 sites in northern New Mexico and 6 sites for two consecutive winter and fall seasons in Texas and Oklahoma Standard methods were used in the preparation and analysis of slides. Results: The Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex is home to over 6 million people. It is adjacent to populations of J. pinchotii, J. virginiana, and J. ashei. Peak concentration near Dallas for J. ashei in 2011 was 5891 pollen grains/m3 in January 7th. The peak date for J. pinchotii at an upwind sampling location in San Marcos, TX was November 1, 2010 and peak for J. virginiana at a nearby station in Tulsa, OK was November 1, 2010 and peak for J. virginiana at a nearby station in Tulsa, OK was February 20, 2011. Amarillo, TX is adjacent to J. pinchotii, J. ashei, and J. monosperma populations and may be subject to juniper pollen from September through May. Conclusions: Considering the overlapping distributions of juniper trees and the overlapping temporal release of pollen, sensitive patients may benefit from avoiding hotspots.

Bunderson, L. D.↗

Visible and near-ultraviolet spectroscopy at Thule AFB (76.5 N) from January 28 - February 15, 1988

Near-ultraviolet and visible spectrographs identical to those employed at McMurdo Station, Antarctica (77.8 S) during the austral spring seasons of 1986 and 1987 were used to study the stratosphere above Thule, Greenland (76.5 N) during early spring, 1988. Observations were carried out both at night using the direct moon as a light source, and during the day by collecting the scattered light from the zenith sky when solar zenith angles were less than about 94.5 degrees. Excellent meteorological conditions prevailed in the troposphere and stratosphere at Thule. Surface weather was extremely clear over most of the period, facilitating measurements of the direct light from the moon. The lower stratospheric arctic polar vortex was located very near Thule throughout the observing period, and temperature at the 30 mbar level were typically below -80 C above Thule, according to the National Meteorological Center daily analyses. Thus conditions were favorable for polar stratospheric cloud formation above Thule. Total column ozone abundances were about 350 to 400 Dobson units, and did not suggest a clear temporal trend over the observing period. Stratospheric nitrogen dioxide measurements were complicated by the presence of a large component of tropospheric pollution on many occasions. Stratospheric nitrogen dioxide could be identified on most days using the absorption in the scattered light from the zenith sky, which greatly enhances the stratospheric airmass while suppressing the tropospheric contribution. These measurements suggest that the total vertical column abundance of nitrogen dioxide present over Thule in February was extremely low, sometimes as low as 3 x 10 to the 14th per sq cm. The abundance of nitrogen dioxide increased systemically from about 3 x 10 to the 14th in late January to 1.0 x 10 to the 15th per sq cm in mid-February, perhaps because of photolysis of N2O5 in the upper part of the stratosphere, near 25 to 35 km.

Mount, G. H.↗

Seasonal Trends in Stratospheric Water Vapor as Derived from SAGE II Data

Published analysis of HALOE and Boulder balloon measurements of water vapor have shown conflicting trends in stratospheric water vapor for the periods of 1981 through 2005. Analysis of the SAGE II monthly mean water vapor data filtered for large aerosol events for time periods from 1985-1991, 1995-1999, and 2000-2005 have shown a globally decreasing water vapor trend at 17.5km. Seasonal analysis for these three time periods show a decreasing trend in water vapor at 17.5km for the winter and spring seasons. The summer and autumn seasonal analysis show a decreasing trend from 1985-2005, however, there is a increasing trend in water vapor at 17.5km for these seasons during 1995-2005. Latitude vs height seasonal analysis show a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere between 20S - 20N for the autumn season, while at the latitudes of 30-50S and 30-50N there is an increasing trend in water vapor at heights up to 15km for that season. Comparison with regions of monsoon activity (Asian and North American) show that the Asian monsoon region had some effect on the lower stratospheric moistening in 1995-1999, however, for the time period of 2000-2005, there was no change in the global trend analysis due to either monsoon region. This may be due to the limitations of the SAGE II data from 2000-2005.

Roell, Marilee M.↗

Cause of a Lower-Tropospheric High-Ozone Layer in Spring Over Hanoi

The ozonesonde observations in Hanoi, Vietnam, over fourteen years since 2004 have confirmed the enhancement in lower tropospheric ozone concentration at about 3 km altitude in the spring season. We investigated the evolution of the ozone enhancement from analysis of meteorological data, backward trajectories, and model sensitivity experiments. In spring, air masses over Hanoi exhibit strong height dependence. At 3km, the high-ozone air masses originate from the land area to the west of Hanoi, while low-ozone air masses below about 1.5 km are from the oceanic area to the east. Above 4 km, the air masses are mostly traced back to the farther west area. The chemical transport model simulations revealed that precursor emissions from biomass burning in the inland Indochina Peninsula have the largest contribution to the lower tropospheric ozone enhancement, which is transported upward and eastward and overhangs the clean air intrusion from the ocean to the east of Hanoi. At this height level, the polluted air has the horizontal extent of about 20 degrees in longitude and latitude. The polluted air observed in Hanoi is transported further east and widely spread over the northern Pacific Ocean.

tropospheric ozone↗

Cause of a Lower-Tropospheric High-Ozone Layer in Spring Over Hanoi

The ozonesonde observations in Hanoi, Vietnam, over fourteen years since 2004 have confirmed the enhancement in lower tropospheric ozone concentration at about 3 km altitude in the spring season. We investigated the evolution of the ozone enhancement from analysis of meteorological data, backward trajectories, and model sensitivity experiments. In spring, air masses over Hanoi exhibit strong height dependence. At 3km, the high-ozone air masses originate from the land area to the west of Hanoi, while low-ozone air masses below about 1.5 km are from the oceanic area to the east. Above 4 km, the air masses are mostly traced back to the farther west area. The chemical transport model simulations revealed that precursor emissions from biomass burning in the inland Indochina Peninsula have the largest contribution to the lower tropospheric ozone enhancement, which is transported upward and eastward and overhangs the clean air intrusion from the ocean to the east of Hanoi. At this height level, the polluted air has the horizontal extent of about 20 degrees in longitude and latitude. The polluted air observed in Hanoi is transported further east and widely spread over the northern Pacific Ocean.

Hanoi↗

High-Resolution Mesoscale Model Setup for the Eastern Range and Wallops Flight Facility

Mesoscale weather conditions can have an adverse effect on space launch, landing, ground processing, and weather advisories, watches, and warnings at the Eastern Range (ER) in Florida and Wallops Flight Facility (WFF) in Virginia. During summer, land-sea interactions across Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lead to sea breeze front formation, which can spawn deep convection that can hinder operations and endanger personnel and resources. Many other weak locally-driven low-level boundaries and their interactions with the sea breeze front and each other can also initiate deep convection in the KSC/CCAFS area. These convective processes often last 60 minutes or less and pose a significant challenge to the local forecasters. Surface winds during the transition seasons (spring and fall) pose the most difficulties for the forecasters at WFF. They also encounter problems forecasting convective activity and temperature during those seasons. Therefore, accurate mesoscale model forecasts are needed to better forecast a variety of unique weather phenomena. Global and national scale models cannot properly resolve important local-scale weather features at each location due to their horizontal resolutions being much too coarse. Therefore, a properly tuned local data assimilation (DA) and forecast model at a high resolution is needed to provide improved capability. To accomplish this, a number of sensitivity tests were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in order to determine the best DA/model configuration for operational use at each of the space launch ranges to best predict winds, precipitation, and temperature. A set of Perl scripts to run the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI)/WRF in real-time were provided by NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT). The GSI can analyze many types of observational data including satellite, radar, and conventional data. The GSI/WRF scripts use a cycled GSI system similar to the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model. The scripts run a 12-hour pre-cycle in which data are assimilated from 12 hours prior up to the model initialization time. A number of different model configurations were tested for both the ER and WFF by varying the horizontal resolution on which the data assimilation was done. Three different grid configurations were run for the ER and two configurations were run for WFF for archive cases from 27 Aug 2013 through 10 Nov 2013. To quantify model performance, standard model output will be compared to the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS) data. The MADIS observation data will be compared to the WRF forecasts using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) verification package. In addition, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Stage IV precipitation data will be used to validate the WRF precipitation forecasts. The author will summarize the relative skill of the various WRF configurations and how each configuration behaves relative to the others, as well as determine the best model configuration for each space launch range.

Watson, Leela R.↗

Groundwater Depth Overrides Tree-Species Effects on the Structure of Soil Microbial Communities Involved in Nitrogen Cycling in Plantation Forests

Microbial communities found in soil ecosystems play important roles in decomposing organic materials and recycling nutrients. A clear understanding on how biotic and abiotic factors influence the microbial community and its functional role in ecosystems is fundamental to terrestrial biogeochemistry and plant production. The purpose of this study was to investigate microbial communities and functional genes involved in nitrogen cycling as a function of groundwater depth (deep and shallow), tree species (pine and eucalypt), and season (spring and fall). Soil fungal, bacterial, and archaeal communities were determined by length heterogeneity polymerase chain reaction (LH-PCR). Soil ammonia oxidation archaeal (AOA) amoA gene, ammonia oxidation bacterial (AOB) amoA gene, nitrite oxidoreductase nrxA gene, and denitrifying bacterial narG, nirK, nirS, and nosZ genes were further studied using PCR and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Soil fungal and bacterial communities remained similar between tree species and groundwater depths, respectively, regardless of season. Soil archaeal communities remained similar between tree species but differed between groundwater depths in the spring only. Archaeal amoA for nitrification and bacterial nirK and nosZ genes for denitrification were detected in DGGE, whereas bacterial amoA and nrxA for nitrification and bacterial narG and nirS genes for denitrification were undetectable. The detected nitrification and denitrification communities varied significantly with groundwater depth. There was no significant difference of nitrifying archaeal amoA or denitrifying nirK communities between different tree species regardless of season. The seasonal difference in microbial communities and functional genes involved in nitrogen cycling suggests microorganisms exhibit seasonal dynamics that likely impact relative rates of nitrification and denitrification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sulfate and nitrate mixing ratios in the vicinity of the tropopause

Measurements of sulfate and nitrate in filter samples made during the Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) from aircraft flying near the tropopause over a period of 28 months beginning in early 1976 are presented. Sulfate and nitrate mixing ratios show a peak near or just above the tropopause during the winter-spring seasons. No peak is evident for sulfate during the summer-fall seasons. The sulfate mixing ratios show a constant average level in 1977-78 of 0.12 + or 0.04 ppbm above the tropopause and 0.05 + or - 0.04 ppbm below the tropopause with higher levels in the spring. Nitrate levels are similar but exhibit greater variability. Correlations between sulfate and nitrate (r = 0.78) and between sulfate and nitrate, on ozone (r = 0.80, 0.78) suggest a predominately stratospheric source for these species.

Lezberg, E. A.↗

Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation

Abstract Colorado River streamflow has decreased 19% since 2000. Spring (March‐April‐May) weather strongly influences Upper Colorado River streamflow because it controls not only water input but also when snow melts and how much energy is available for evaporation when soils are wettest. Since 2000, spring precipitation decreased by 14% on average across 26 unregulated headwater basins, but this decrease did not fully account for the reduced streamflow. In drier springs, increases in energy from reduced cloud cover, and lowered surface albedo from earlier snow disappearance, coincided with potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases of up to 10%. Combining spring precipitation decreases with PET increases accounted for 67% of the variance in post‐2000 streamflow deficits. Streamflow deficits were most substantial in lower elevation basins (<2,950 m), where snowmelt occurred earliest, and precipitation declines were largest. Refining seasonal spring precipitation forecasts is imperative for future water availability predictions in this snow‐dominated water resource region.

Geology↗

Seasonal Variation of Total Mercury Burden in the American Alligator (Alligator Mississippiensis) at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR), Florida

Seasonal variation of mercury (Hg) is not well studied in free-ranging wildlife. Atmospheric deposition patterns of Hg have been studied in detail and have been modeled for both global and specific locations with great accuracy and correlates to environment impact. However, monitoring these trends in wildlife is complicated due to local environmental parameters (e.g., rainfall, humidity, pH, bacterial composition) that can affect the transformation of atmospheric Hg to the biologically available forms. Here, we utilized an abundant and healthy population of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR), FL, and assessed Hg burden in whole blood samples over a span of 7 years (2007 2014; n 174) in an effort to assess seasonal variation of total [Hg]. While the majority of this population is assumed healthy, 18 individuals with low body mass indices (BMI, defined in this study) were captured throughout the 7 year sampling period. These individual alligators exhibited [Hg] that were not consistent with the observed overall seasonal [Hg] variation, and were statistically different from the healthy population of alligators. The alligators with low BMI had elevated concentrations of Hg compared to their age/sex/season matched counterparts with normal BMI. Statistically significant differences were found between the winter and spring seasons for animals with normal BMI. The data in this report supports the conclusion that organismal total [Hg] do fluctuate directly with seasonal deposition rates as well as other seasonal environmental parameters, such as average rainfall and prevailing wind direction. This study highlights the unique environment of MINWR to permit annual assessment of apex predators, such as the American alligator, to determine detailed environmental impact of contaminants of concern.

Hg↗

Satellite Altimeter Observations of Black Sea Level Variations

Satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-1 are used to examine seasonal and mesoscale variability of the Black Sea level. Consistent processing procedures of the altimeter measurements make it possible to determine the dynamical Black Sea level with an rms accuracy about 3 cm. It is shown that the Black Sea circulation intensifies in the winter-spring seasons and attenuates in summer-autumn. The seasonal variability of sea level is accompanied by a radiation of Rossby waves from the eastern coast of the basin. Mesoscale oscillations of the dynamical sea level are found to vary spatially and temporarily. Usually, strong eddy intensity is associated with instabilities of the Rim Current. Away from this circulation feature, in the deep basin, mesoscale variability is much smaller. Mesoscale variability has a strong seasonal signal, which is out of phase with the strength of the Rim Current.

Korotaev, G. K.↗

Polar stratospheric optical depth observed between 1978 and 1985

Observations of the stratospheric optical depth at 1.0 micron obtained for high latitudes are presented for a 7-year period. Weekly averaged data determined from measurements made by the Stratospheric Aerosol Measurement experiment from October 1978-1985 show that the overall yearly values in both polar regions are controlled by volcanic perturbations, with most volcanic effects being experienced in Arctic latitudes. Conservatively, peak values found in the Antarctic region were approximately 0.02 and in the Arctic region about 0.55. Probable values for these regions are estimated to be 0.26 and 0.11, respectively. The weekly averaged data also show the seasonal fluctuations due to microphysical and dynamical processes. Comparison of the optical depth record with a weekly averaged 50-mbar temperature record indicates that polar stratospheric clouds are present in the southern high latitudes each year near this level from early June to early September. A depression observed in the optical depth record each austral spring season is believed to be the result of the downward displacement of particles caused by subsidence and sedimentation during the course of winter. Following the breakup of the vortex, optical depth values increase as aerosol is transported poleward. These features are noted to be present in the Arctic region as well, but on a smaller scale because of the satellite sampling methodology and the averaging scheme employed.

Mccormick, M. P.↗

Airborne Lidar Measurements of XCO 2 in Synoptically Active Environment and Associated Comparisons With Numerical Simulations

Frontal boundaries have been shown to cause large changes in CO 2 mole-fractions, but clouds and the complex vertical structure of fronts make these gradients difficult to observe. It remains unclear how the column average CO 2 dry air mole-fraction (XCO 2 ) changes spatially across fronts, and how well airborne lidar observations, data assimilation systems, and numerical models without assimilation capture XCO 2 frontal contrasts (ΔXCO 2 , i.e., warm minus cold sector average of XCO 2 ). We demonstrated the potential of airborne Multifunctional Fiber Laser Lidar (MFLL) measurements in heterogeneous weather conditions (i.e., frontal environment) to investigate the ΔXCO 2 during four seasonal field campaigns of the Atmospheric Carbon and Transport-America (ACT-America) mission. Most frontal cases in summer (winter) reveal higher (lower) XCO 2 in the warm (cold) sector than in the cold (warm) sector. During the transitional seasons (spring and fall), no clear signal in ΔXCO 2 was observed. Intercomparison among the MFLL, assimilated fields from NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), and simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting-—Chemistry (WRF-Chem) showed that (a) all products had a similar sign of ΔXCO 2 though with different levels of agreement in ΔXCO 2 magnitudes among seasons; (b) ΔXCO 2 in summer decreases with altitude; and (c) significant challenges remain in observing and simulating XCO 2 frontal contrasts. A linear regression analyses between ΔXCO 2 for MFLL versus GMAO, and MFLL versus WRF-Chem for summer-2016 cases yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.95 and 0.88, respectively. The reported ΔXCO 2 variability among four seasons provide guidance to the spatial structures of XCO 2 transport errors in models and satellite measurements of XCO 2 in synoptically-active weather systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Signatures of troposphere-stratosphere momentum coupling Implications for global atmospheric angular momentum and earth rotation budgets

During January-August 1978, the global atmospheric angular momentum (M) exhibits distinct patterns of short term momentum interchange across latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere winter-spring season, 30-50 day modulations of M are present in which momentum enhancements at mid-latitudes (20-30 deg) are closely matched by momentum depressions at high latitudes (50-60 deg). During the same interval there are no corresponding variations in M evident in the Southern Hemisphere. Conversely, during Southern Hemisphere fall-winter, similar anti-correlations in monthly scale momentum excursions are evident between mid and high latitudes. In the Northern Hemisphere, the winter-spring momentum signatures are detected throughout the atmosphere, from the lower troposphere to the stratosphere. During the Southern Hemisphere fall-winter, the modulation patterns are not evident at the higher altitudes. Structural details of the momentum signatures indicate that the coupling is sometimes effective on very short time scales, e.g., 1-2 days, or less. The evidence of distinct anti-correlation between large regions has interesting implications for studies of global atmospheric circulation, and also for studies of the excitation of variations in earth rotation in response to short term modulations of M.

Taylor, H. A.↗