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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2005

Interannual Variability in Surface LW Fluxes Over the Tropical Oceans As Seen in ISCCP-FD and GEWEX SRB Data Sets

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1 983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Fu!l and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NAS/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Significant differences in both interannual variability as well as trends are found between among these data sets. For radiative fluxes these differences are traced to TOVS thermodynamic soundings used to drive the ISCCP-FD calculations. Errors in near surface temperature and precipitable water cascade into ISCCP upward and downward IR flux components, demonstrably affecting interannual variability. Revised estimates of clear-sky fluxes over ocean are made using statistical algorithms and water vapor from the (SSM/I) Special Sensor Microwave Imager. These calculations show strong near-surface water vapor feedback over the tropical oceans in association with SST changes. However, it is also shown that ISCCP longwave cloud forcing, common to both the ISCCP-FD and GEWEX SRB retrievals, is the main driver of a long-term decrease in net LW flux to the surface during the near-20 year period covered by these revised estimates.

Robertson, F. R.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Instrumentation System Diagnoses a Thermocouple

An improved self-validating thermocouple (SVT) instrumentation system not only acquires readings from a thermocouple but is also capable of detecting deterioration and a variety of discrete faults in the thermocouple and its lead wires. Prime examples of detectable discrete faults and deterioration include open- and short-circuit conditions and debonding of the thermocouple junction from the object, the temperature of which one seeks to measure. Debonding is the most common cause of errors in thermocouple measurements, but most prior SVT instrumentation systems have not been capable of detecting debonding. The improved SVT instrumentation system includes power circuitry, a cold-junction compensator, signal-conditioning circuitry, pulse-width-modulation (PWM) thermocouple-excitation circuitry, an analog-to-digital converter (ADC), a digital data processor, and a universal serial bus (USB) interface. The system can operate in any of the following three modes: temperature measurement, thermocouple validation, and bonding/debonding detection. The software running in the processor includes components that implement statistical algorithms to evaluate the state of the thermocouple and the instrumentation system. When the power is first turned on, the user can elect to start a diagnosis/ monitoring sequence, in which the PWM is used to estimate the characteristic times corresponding to the correct configuration. The user also has the option of using previous diagnostic values, which are stored in an electrically erasable, programmable read-only memory so that they are available every time the power is turned on.

Perotti, Jose↗
NASA NTRS2009

Baseline Assessment and Prioritization Framework for IVHM Integrity Assurance Enabling Capabilities

Fundamental to vehicle health management is the deployment of systems incorporating advanced technologies for predicting and detecting anomalous conditions in highly complex and integrated environments. Integrated structural integrity health monitoring, statistical algorithms for detection, estimation, prediction, and fusion, and diagnosis supporting adaptive control are examples of advanced technologies that present considerable verification and validation challenges. These systems necessitate interactions between physical and software-based systems that are highly networked with sensing and actuation subsystems, and incorporate technologies that are, in many respects, different from those employed in civil aviation today. A formidable barrier to deploying these advanced technologies in civil aviation is the lack of enabling verification and validation tools, methods, and technologies. The development of new verification and validation capabilities will not only enable the fielding of advanced vehicle health management systems, but will also provide new assurance capabilities for verification and validation of current generation aviation software which has been implicated in anomalous in-flight behavior. This paper describes the research focused on enabling capabilities for verification and validation underway within NASA s Integrated Vehicle Health Management project, discusses the state of the art of these capabilities, and includes a framework for prioritizing activities.

Cooper, Eric G.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Carbon Budget 2016

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.

Quéré, Corinne Le↗
NASA NTRS2019

MARGInS Model-Based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems

The high complexity of modern aircraft and spacecraft requires elaborate Verification and Validation (V&V) approaches to make sure that such complex systems work properly and reliably. MARGInS is a framework for the analysis, understanding, and prediction of the behavior of a complex, hybrid system. MARGInS contains a set of machine learning and statistical algorithms for multivariate clustering, treatment learning, critical factor determination, time-series analysis, event prediction, and safety-boundary detection and characterization. The framework supports system testing and can be configured to find novel features in test suites, determine classes of behavior, propose new experiments that can efficiently explore and characterize the boundaries between classes of system behavior, and to create visualizations and reports.

He, Yuning↗
NASA NTRS2019

Cloud Giovanni: Reining in Costs and Improving Performance with Analytical Data Stores Using Scalable Serverless Architecture

Giovanni is the Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure developed at NASA GES DISC which provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science data. It receives large number of user requests each day for a variety of analysis and visualization services, which leads to the big data challenge of serving gradually increasing large data volumes with diverse statistical algorithms. We hereby propose a multi-dimensional accumulation method which provides fast and cost-efficient cloud analysis for diverse services including both area averaging and time averaging. This method involves the weighted volume integration over multiple variable dimensions (time and space), and is implemented in AWS using Athena providing serverless and highly scalable data analysis. Compared to the standard method, this approach dramatically reduced the computational time by order of magnitude with a minimal AWS cost incurred. For example, for a benchmark of 10-year area averaging over the 1x1 degree daily variable, the computational time was reduced from minutes to seconds, and the Athena cost is only $5 for 100,000 requests.

Zhang, Hailiang↗
NASA NTRS2022

Combining Machine Learning and Numerical Simulation for High-Resolution PM2.5 Concentration Forecast

Forecasting ambient PM2.5 concentrations with spatiotemporal coverage is key to alerting decision-makers of pollution episodes and preventing detrimental public exposure, especially in regions with limited ground air monitoring stations. The existing methods either rely on chemical transport models (CTMs) to forecast spatial distribution of PM2.5 with nontrivial uncertainty or statistical algorithms to forecast PM2.5 concentration time-series at air monitoring locations without continuous spatial coverage. In this study, we developed a PM2.5 forecast framework by combining the robust Random Forest algorithm with a publicly accessible global CTM forecast product – NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System “Composition Forecasting” (GEOS-CF), providing spatiotemporally continuous PM2.5 concentration forecasts for the next five days at a 1-km spatial resolution. Our forecast experiment was conducted for a region in Central China including the populous and polluted Fenwei Plain. The forecast for the next two days had overall validation R2 of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively; the R2 was around 0.5 for the following three forecast days. Spatial cross-validation showed similar validation metrics. Our forecast model, with validation normalized mean bias close to zero, substantially reduced the large biases in GEOS-CF. The proposed framework requires minimal computational resources compared to running CTMs at urban scales, enabling near-real-time PM2.5 forecast in resource-restricted environments.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS2022

Radiation Tolerance and Mitigation for Neuromorphic Processors

Neuromorphic processors are designed to execute Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) at very high speed using only a fraction of the electrical power needed to run a DNN on a traditional CPU or GPU. This unique capability makes Neuromorphic processors a prime candidate for space systems, where advanced computational tasks like image analysis, depth map reconstruction, or rover control need to be executed in a power-starved environment. In contrast to the growing number of applications of Neuromorphic processors in smart phones, the automotive and robotics domain, the space environment is unforgiving because of extreme temperatures and high levels of radiation. Any space system, operating beyond LEO requires computing hardware that is resilient against radiation effects. However, Neuromorphic processors have not yet been designed or tested for their radiation tolerance. In this report, we consider traditional methods of detection of radiation events and mitigation via redundancy and gauge their effectiveness on DNNs. In contrast to traditional flight software, however, neural networks represent a statistical algorithm, which might affect its resilience against radiation events. We will focus on the analysis of the tolerance of DNNs with respect to radiation events and discuss techniques to detect radiation hits using on-chip triple modular redundancy (TMR) on an Intel Loihi neuromorphic processor and to mitigate radiation damage. We describe an architecture for on-chip TMR for the Intel Loihi and present results of initial experiments.

Neural Networks↗
NASA NTRS2011

Statistically Optimized Inversion Algorithm for Enhanced Retrieval of Aerosol Properties from Spectral Multi-Angle Polarimetric Satellite Observations

The proposed development is an attempt to enhance aerosol retrieval by emphasizing statistical optimization in inversion of advanced satellite observations. This optimization concept improves retrieval accuracy relying on the knowledge of measurement error distribution. Efficient application of such optimization requires pronounced data redundancy (excess of the measurements number over number of unknowns) that is not common in satellite observations. The POLDER imager on board the PARASOL microsatellite registers spectral polarimetric characteristics of the reflected atmospheric radiation at up to 16 viewing directions over each observed pixel. The completeness of such observations is notably higher than for most currently operating passive satellite aerosol sensors. This provides an opportunity for profound utilization of statistical optimization principles in satellite data inversion. The proposed retrieval scheme is designed as statistically optimized multi-variable fitting of all available angular observations obtained by the POLDER sensor in the window spectral channels where absorption by gas is minimal. The total number of such observations by PARASOL always exceeds a hundred over each pixel and the statistical optimization concept promises to be efficient even if the algorithm retrieves several tens of aerosol parameters. Based on this idea, the proposed algorithm uses a large number of unknowns and is aimed at retrieval of extended set of parameters affecting measured radiation.

Dubovik, O↗
NASA NTRS2004

Automatic Generation of Algorithms for the Statistical Analysis of Planetary Nebulae Images

Analyzing data sets collected in experiments or by observations is a Core scientific activity. Typically, experimentd and observational data are &aught with uncertainty, and the analysis is based on a statistical model of the conjectured underlying processes, The large data volumes collected by modern instruments make computer support indispensible for this. Consequently, scientists spend significant amounts of their time with the development and refinement of the data analysis programs. AutoBayes [GF+02, FS03] is a fully automatic synthesis system for generating statistical data analysis programs. Externally, it looks like a compiler: it takes an abstract problem specification and translates it into executable code. Its input is a concise description of a data analysis problem in the form of a statistical model as shown in Figure 1; its output is optimized and fully documented C/C++ code which can be linked dynamically into the Matlab and Octave environments. Internally, however, it is quite different: AutoBayes derives a customized algorithm implementing the given model using a schema-based process, and then further refines and optimizes the algorithm into code. A schema is a parameterized code template with associated semantic constraints which define and restrict the template s applicability. The schema parameters are instantiated in a problem-specific way during synthesis as AutoBayes checks the constraints against the original model or, recursively, against emerging sub-problems. AutoBayes schema library contains problem decomposition operators (which are justified by theorems in a formal logic in the domain of Bayesian networks) as well as machine learning algorithms (e.g., EM, k-Means) and nu- meric optimization methods (e.g., Nelder-Mead simplex, conjugate gradient). AutoBayes augments this schema-based approach by symbolic computation to derive closed-form solutions whenever possible. This is a major advantage over other statistical data analysis systems which use numerical approximations even in cases where closed-form solutions exist. AutoBayes is implemented in Prolog and comprises approximately 75.000 lines of code. In this paper, we take one typical scientific data analysis problem-analyzing planetary nebulae images taken by the Hubble Space Telescope-and show how AutoBayes can be used to automate the implementation of the necessary anal- ysis programs. We initially follow the analysis described by Knuth and Hajian [KHO2] and use AutoBayes to derive code for the published models. We show the details of the code derivation process, including the symbolic computations and automatic integration of library procedures, and compare the results of the automatically generated and manually implemented code. We then go beyond the original analysis and use AutoBayes to derive code for a simple image segmentation procedure based on a mixture model which can be used to automate a manual preproceesing step. Finally, we combine the original approach with the simple segmentation which yields a more detailed analysis. This also demonstrates that AutoBayes makes it easy to combine different aspects of data analysis.

Fischer, Bernd↗
NASA NTRS1981

Contextual classification of multispectral image data - An unbiased estimator for the context distribution

Recent investigations have demonstrated the effectiveness of a contextual classifier that combines spatial and spectral information employing a general statistical approach. This statistical classification algorithm exploits the tendency of certain ground-cover classes to occur more frequently in some spatial contexts than in others. Indeed, a key input to this algorithm is a statistical characterization of the context: the context distribution. Here a discussion is given of an unbiased estimator of the context distribution which, besides having the advantage of statistical unbiasedness, has the additional advantage over other estimation techniques of being amenable to an adaptive implementation in which the context distribution estimate varies according to local contextual information. Results from applying the unbiased estimator to the contextual classification of three real Landsat data sets are presented and contrasted with results from noncontextual classifications and from contextual classifications utilizing other context distribution estimation techniques.

Tilton, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Estimation of context for statistical classification of multispectral image data

Recent investigations have demonstrated the effectiveness of a contextual classifier that combines spatial and spectral information employing a general statistical approach. This statistical classification algorithm exploits the tendency of certain ground cover classes to occur more frequently in some spatial contexts than in others. Indeed, a key input to this algorithm is a statistical characterization of the context: the context function. An unbiased estimator of the context function is discussed which, besides having the advantage of statistical unbiasedness, has the additional advantage over other estimation techniques of being amenable to an adaptive implementation in which the context-function estimate varies according to local contextual information. Results from applying the unbiased estimator to the contextual classification of three real Landsat data sets are presented and contrasted with results from noncontextual classifications and from contextual classifications utilizing other context-function estimation techniques.

Tilton, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Design of Neural Networks for Fast Convergence and Accuracy: Dynamics and Control

A procedure for the design and training of artificial neural networks, used for rapid and efficient controls and dynamics design and analysis for flexible space systems, has been developed. Artificial neural networks are employed, such that once properly trained, they provide a means of evaluating the impact of design changes rapidly. Specifically, two-layer feedforward neural networks are designed to approximate the functional relationship between the component/spacecraft design changes and measures of its performance or nonlinear dynamics of the system/components. A training algorithm, based on statistical sampling theory, is presented, which guarantees that the trained networks provide a designer-specified degree of accuracy in mapping the functional relationship. Within each iteration of this statistical-based algorithm, a sequential design algorithm is used for the design and training of the feedforward network to provide rapid convergence to the network goals. Here, at each sequence a new network is trained to minimize the error of previous network. The proposed method should work for applications wherein an arbitrary large source of training data can be generated. Two numerical examples are performed on a spacecraft application in order to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Maghami, Peiman G.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Design of Neural Networks for Fast Convergence and Accuracy

A novel procedure for the design and training of artificial neural networks, used for rapid and efficient controls and dynamics design and analysis for flexible space systems, has been developed. Artificial neural networks are employed to provide a means of evaluating the impact of design changes rapidly. Specifically, two-layer feedforward neural networks are designed to approximate the functional relationship between the component spacecraft design changes and measures of its performance. A training algorithm, based on statistical sampling theory, is presented, which guarantees that the trained networks provide a designer-specified degree of accuracy in mapping the functional relationship. Within each iteration of this statistical-based algorithm, a sequential design algorithm is used for the design and training of the feedforward network to provide rapid convergence to the network goals. Here, at each sequence a new network is trained to minimize the error of previous network. The design algorithm attempts to avoid the local minima phenomenon that hampers the traditional network training. A numerical example is performed on a spacecraft application in order to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Maghami, Peiman G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Fast Quantum Algorithm for Predicting Descriptive Statistics of Stochastic Processes

Stochastic processes are used as a modeling tool in several sub-fields of physics, biology, and finance. Analytic understanding of the long term behavior of such processes is only tractable for very simple types of stochastic processes such as Markovian processes. However, in real world applications more complex stochastic processes often arise. In physics, the complicating factor might be nonlinearities; in biology it might be memory effects; and in finance is might be the non-random intentional behavior of participants in a market. In the absence of analytic insight, one is forced to understand these more complex stochastic processes via numerical simulation techniques. In this paper we present a quantum algorithm for performing such simulations. In particular, we show how a quantum algorithm can predict arbitrary descriptive statistics (moments) of N-step stochastic processes in just O(square root of N) time. That is, the quantum complexity is the square root of the classical complexity for performing such simulations. This is a significant speedup in comparison to the current state of the art.

Williams Colin P.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Results of the joint NASA/NOAA AMTS/HIRS2 sounding simulation test

The relative accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved from HIRS2, the current operational infra-red temperature sounder, and AMTS, a proposed advanced high-spectral resolution infra-red sounder were compared. The sounding simulation test compared retrievals generated by GLAS, using their physical retrieval algorithm, and NESDIS, using their operational statistical regression algorithm, for both instruments under clear and cloudy conditions. Test results for both conditions are summarized in tables showing RMS temperature errors for 18 tropospheric layers, 4 stratospheric layers, and surface skin temperature. The improvement of the AMTS instrument over HIRS2, particularly for cloudy conditions is demonstrated. The GLAS retrievals are more accurate than the operational NESDIS retrieval, especially with increasing cloud cover.

Susskind, J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

NOAA/NASA Joint Simulation of AMTS and HIRS

Sounding simulation test was designed to compare the relative accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved from HIRS2, the current operational infrared temperature sounder, and AMTS, a proposed advanced high spectral resolution infrared sounder. Retrievals generated by GLAS, using their physical retrieval algorithm, and NESDIS, using their operational statistical regression algorithm, for both instruments under clear and cloudy conditions were compared. In the cloudy portion of the test, MSU data, corresponding to the microwave component of the current operational sounding system, was used in conjunction with both instruments to aid in cloud seeding.

Susskind, J.↗