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The Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator: Energy Resilience for Mission Assurance
The Multi-scenario extreme weather simulator (MEWS) is a stochastic weather generation tool. The MEWS algorithm uses 50 or more years of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA) daily summaries [1] for maximum and minimum temperature and NOAA climate norms [2] to calculate historical heat wave and cold snap statistics. The algorithm takes these statistics and shifts them according to multiplication factors provided in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical basis technical summary [3] for heat waves.
Non-Routine Event Detection and Adjustment (NRE) v1
The non-routine event (NRE) detection and adjustment module provides algorithms to detect and to adjust changes in energy use that are not attributable to installed efficiency measures, and not accounted for in the baseline model's independent variables. The detection algorithm is based on statistical change point algorithm and the adjustment uses a data driven approach to quantify the changes in the energy use that are induced by the NRE.
Angular filter refractometry analysis using simulated annealing [An improved method for characterizing plasma density profiles using angular filter refractometry]
Here, a new method of analysis for angular filter refractometry images was developed to characterize laser-produced, long-scale-length plasmas using an annealing algorithm to iterative converge upon a solution. Angular filter refractometry (AFR) is a novel technique used to characterize the density pro files of laser-produced, long-scale-length plasmas. A synthetic AFR image is constructed by a user-defined density profile described by eight parameters, and the algorithm systematically alters the parameters until the comparison is optimized. The optimization and statistical uncertainty calculation is based on a minimization of the $\chi$2 test statistic. The algorithm was successfully applied to experimental data of plasma expanding from a flat, laser-irradiated target, resulting in average uncertainty in the density profile of 5-10% in the region of interest.
K-space algorithmic reconstruction (KAREN): a robust statistical methodology to separate Bragg and diffuse scattering
Diffuse scattering occurring in the Bragg diffraction pattern of a long-range-ordered structure represents local deviation from the governing regular lattice. However, interpreting the real-space structure from the diffraction pattern presents a significant challenge because of the dramatic difference in intensity between the Bragg and diffuse components of the total scattering function. In contrast to the sharp Bragg diffraction, the diffuse signal has generally been considered to be a weak expansive or continuous background signal. In this paper, using 1D and 2D models, it is demonstrated that diffuse scattering in fact consists of a complex array of high-frequency features that must not be averaged into a low-frequency background signal. To evaluate the actual diffuse scattering effectively, an algorithm has been developed that uses robust statistics and traditional signal processing techniques to identify Bragg peaks as signal outliers which can be removed from the overall scattering data and then replaced by statistically valid fill values. This method, described as a 'K-space algorithmic reconstruction' (KAREN), can identify Bragg reflections independent of prior knowledge of a system's unit cell. KAREN does not alter any data other than that in the immediate vicinity of the Bragg reflections, and reconstructs the diffuse component surrounding the Bragg peaks without introducing discontinuities which induce Fourier ripples or artifacts from underfilling `punched' voids. The KAREN algorithm for reconstructing diffuse scattering provides demonstrably better resolution than can be obtained from previously described punch-and-fill methods. The superior structural resolution obtained using the KAREN method is demonstrated by evaluating the complex ordered diffuse scattering observed from the neutron diffraction of a single plastic crystal of CBr 4 using pair distribution function analysis.
Inverse design of equilibrium cluster fluids applied to a physically informed model
Inverse design strategies have proven highly useful for the discovery of interaction potentials that prompt self-assembly of a variety of interesting structures. However, often the optimized particle interactions do not have a direct relationship to experimental systems. In this work, we show that Relative Entropy minimization is able to discover physically meaningful parameter sets for a model interaction built from depletion attraction and electrostatic repulsion that yield self-assembly of size-specific clusters. Here, we then explore the sensitivity of the optimized interaction potentials with respect to deviations in the underlying physical quantities, showing that clustering behavior is largely preserved even as the optimized parameters are perturbed.
Preface to the Focus Section on Machine Learning in Seismology
Machine learning (ML) is a collection of algorithms and statistical models that enable computers to extract relevant patterns and information from large data sets. Unlike physical modeling approaches, in which scientists develop theories based on physical laws to compare with real–world observations, ML approaches learn directly from data without explicitly reasoning about the underlying physical mechanisms. ML algorithms are often categorized into supervised and unsupervised learning (see fig. 2 in Kong et al., 2018). Supervised learning algorithms build a model from existing labeled input data with the goal of predicting the labels of new data.
Hybrid geological modeling: Combining machine learning and multiple-point statistics
Accurately modeling and constructing a geologically realistic subsurface model remains an outstanding problem as the morphology controls the flow behaviors. Particularly, one of the pattern-based methods, namely cross-correlation based simulation, has been proved to be an effective way to reconstruct a realistic model, at both small and large scales. However, conditioning to point data in the large-scale problems is still a crucial issue in these algorithms, since there is always a trade-off between the quality of the realizations and the degree of point data reproduction. Specifically, it is not practical to build a training image (TI) which includes all the possibilities and variabilities. Therefore, finding a pattern that can represent the point data and, at the same time, preserving the connectivities is difficult. This leads to producing highly-connected realizations with a significant mismatch or poor models with a reasonable degree of point data reproduction. To accurately reproduce the densely distributed hard data, pixel-based methods can also produce some unrealistic artifacts around the hard data. In this paper, to overcome this challenge, however, we use pattern-based methods as they often produce more disconnected geobodies when dealing with dense hard data, and proposed a hybrid algorithm using the pattern-based methods and convolutional neural network (CNN). The trained CNN model is utilized to improve the quality of conditioning to point data for the original realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. As such, the mismatch locations are identified, and the same regions are used in the training of CNN to mimic the procedure through which a missing region can be filled. To evaluate the performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm, it is tested on cases with different dimensions and different numbers of facies. Then, the newly improved realizations are compared with the initial realizations generated by the pattern-based algorithm. The comparison is also conducted by the flow simulation test. And it indicates that the proposed hybrid algorithm can better reproduce the point data, while the connectivities are better preserved.
Finite-Temperature Structures of Supported Subnanometer Catalysts Inferred via Statistical Learning and Genetic Algorithm-Based Optimization
Single-atom catalysts (SACs) minimize noble metal utilization and can alter the activity and selectivity of supported metal nanoparticles. However, the morphology of active centers, including single atoms and subnanometer clusters of a few atoms, remains elusive due to experimental challenges. The computational cost to describe numerous cluster shapes and sizes makes direct first-principles calculations impractical. We present a computational framework to enable structure determination for single-atom and subnanometer cluster catalysts. As a case study, we obtained the low energy structures of Pd n (n = 1-21) clusters supported on CeO 2 (111), which are critical components of automobile three-way catalysts. Trained on density functional theory data, a three-dimensional cluster expansion is established using statistical learning to describe the Hamiltonian and predict energies of supported Pdn clusters of any structure. Low energy stable and metastable structures are identified using a Metropolis Monte Carlo-based genetic algorithm in the canonical ensemble at 300 K. We observe that supported single atoms sinter to form bilayer clusters and large cluster isomers share similarities in both shape and energy, and elucidate the significance of the support and microstructure on cluster stability. We discovered a simple surrogate structure-energy model, where the energy per atom scales with the square root of the average first coordination number, which can be used to estimate energies and compare the stability of clusters. Our framework, applicable to any metal/support system, fills an important methodological gap to predict the stability of supported metal catalysts in the subnanometer regime.
Final Scientific/Technical Report: Integrating Advanced Software and Statistical Methods for Spectroscopic Dark Energy Surveys
“Dark energy” is a phenomenon of unknown origin that pervades the vacuum of space and is causing the present-day expansion of the universe to accelerate. Understanding the nature of dark energy is one of the most fundamental challenges to modern physics, having the potential to revolutionize our theories of both gravity and elementary particle physics. The effects of dark energy are currently only accessible to astronomical survey experiments that probe large volumes of the cosmos. One of the most powerful forms of experiment for studying dark energy is the cosmological “redshift survey,” which maps the large-scale structure of the universe as traced by the positions of galaxies, quasars, and intergalactic hydrogen clouds. The signature of dark energy and other cosmological parameters is imprinted on this large-scale structure as it evolves over cosmic time. This project focused on maximizing the accurate extraction of information from redshift surveys by improving the algorithms and statistics applied across the chain of inference from raw pixels to high-level cosmological parameter estimation. At the low level, this project developed new techniques for calibrating and analyzing high-background, low signal-to-noise data from astronomical survey spectrographs to provide reliable three-dimensional maps of galaxies and quasars throughout the universe. At the high level, this project developed new statistical frameworks for understanding the completeness of redshift surveys and the underlying demographics of the galaxies that they observe, thereby allowing for a more accurate connection between survey results and theoretical models. This work contributes to maximizing the scientific reach of existing and planned surveys, and opens new potential feasibility for more ambitious surveys in the future.
Optimal Portfolio Management in a Modified Constant Elasticity of Variance Model
We investigate the optimal management of a portfolio consisting of a risk asset and a risk-free bond. The asset dynamics is specified by the M-CEV model. Assuming that the investor has a power utility function, we derive an explicit analytical portfolio-management formula that contains confluent hypergeometric functions. The asymptotic form of the proposed portfolio management strategy is obtained, as well as approximate formulas consisting only of elementary functions. We additionally present an application of our results in the context of algorithmic statistical-arbitrage strategies.
Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning Research Needs Workshop Report
Abstract Machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI) methods have been used successfully in recent years to solve problems in many areas, including image recognition, unsupervised and supervised classification, game-playing, system identification and prediction, and autonomous vehicle control. Data-driven machine learning methods have also been applied to fusion energy research for over 2 decades, including significant advances in the areas of disruption prediction, surrogate model generation, and experimental planning. The advent of powerful and dedicated computers specialized for large-scale parallel computation, as well as advances in statistical inference algorithms, have greatly enhanced the capabilities of these computational approaches to extract scientific knowledge and bridge gaps between theoretical models and practical implementations. Large-scale commercial success of various ML/AI applications in recent years, including robotics, industrial processes, online image recognition, financial system prediction, and autonomous vehicles, have further demonstrated the potential for data-driven methods to produce dramatic transformations in many fields. These advances, along with the urgency of need to bridge key gaps in knowledge for design and operation of reactors such as ITER, have driven planned expansion of efforts in ML/AI within the US government and around the world. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science programs in Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) have organized several activities to identify best strategies and approaches for applying ML/AI methods to fusion energy research. This paper describes the results of a joint FES/ASCR DOE-sponsored Research Needs Workshop on Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning, held April 30–May 2, 2019, in Gaithersburg, MD (full report available at https://science.osti.gov/-/media/fes/pdf/workshop-reports/FES_ASCR_Machine_Learning_Report.pdf ). The workshop drew on broad representation from both FES and ASCR scientific communities, and identified seven Priority Research Opportunities (PRO’s) with high potential for advancing fusion energy. In addition to the PRO topics themselves, the workshop identified research guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of ML/AI methods in fusion energy science, which include focusing on uncertainty quantification, methods for quantifying regions of validity of models and algorithms, and applying highly integrated teams of ML/AI mathematicians, computer scientists, and fusion energy scientists with domain expertise in the relevant areas.
The impact of urban configuration types on urban heat islands, air pollution, CO 2 emissions, and mortality in Europe: a data science approach
The world is becoming increasingly urbanized. As cities around the world continue to grow, it is important for urban planners and policymakers to understand how different urban configuration patterns affect the environment and human health. We aimed at identifying European urban configuration types, based on the Local Climate Zones categories and street design variables from Open Street Map, and evaluating their association with motorized traffic flows, Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) intensities, tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), CO 2 per capita emissions and age-standardized mortality. We considered 946 European cities from 31 countries for the analysis defined in the 2018 Urban Audit database, of which 919 European cities were analysed. Data were collected at a 250 m × 250 m grid cell resolution. We divided all cities into five concentric rings based on the Burgess concentric urban planning model and calculated the mean values of all variables for each ring. First, to identify distinct urban configuration types, we applied the Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection for Dimension Reduction method, followed by the k-means clustering algorithm. Next, statistical differences in exposures (including SUHI) and mortality between the resulting urban configuration types were evaluated using a Kruskal–Wallis test followed by a post-hoc Dunn's test. We identified four distinct urban configuration types characterising European cities: compact high density (n=246), open low-rise medium density (n=245), open low-rise low density (n=261), and green low density (n=167). Compact high density cities were a small size, had high population densities, and a low availability of natural areas. In contrast, green low-density cities were a large size, had low population densities, and a high availability of natural areas and cycleways. The open low-rise medium and low-density cities were a small to medium size with medium to low population densities and low to moderate availability of green areas. Motorised traffic flows and NO 2 exposure were significantly higher in compact high density and open low rise medium density cities when compared with green low density and open low-rise low density cities. Additionally, green low-density cities had a significantly lower SUHI effect compared with all other urban configuration types. Per person CO 2 emissions were significantly lower in compact high density cities compared with green low density cities. Lastly, green low density cities had significantly lower mortality rates when compared with all other urban configuration types. Our findings indicate that, although the compact city model is more sustainable, European compact cities still face challenges related to poor environmental quality and health. Our results have notable implications for urban and transport planning policies in Europe and contribute to the ongoing discussion on which city models can bring the greatest benefits for the environment, climate, and health.
Database-wide hazard modelling of the onset of DIII-D tearing modes with field features
The rate of onset (hazard) of tearing modes is modelled probabilistically using statistical learning algorithms. Axisymmetric energy-density equilibrium fields are taken as raw high-dimensional input features which are reduced with principal component analysis. Signal processing of non-axisymmetric magnetics fluctuation array data provides the target information from which to learn. Model selection, visualization and calibration assessment procedures are detailed. Here, the analysis is deployed at large scale across the DIII-D tokamak database. Standard model selection criteria suggest that the energy-density post-processed feature is a better choice for modelling the onset rate compared to the non-processed equilibrium reconstruction solution. Two example applications of the learned rate function are demonstrated: (i) proximity-to-onset discharge monitoring and (ii) database analysis showing an (expected) observational global trend that the general hazard increases as a plasma performance metric increases. An important connection between the hazard function and its use as a conditional probability generator is reviewed in the Appendix.
Self-Assembly of a Triblock Copolymer in the Presence of a Rigid Conjugated Polyelectrolyte
The properties of conducting polymers are strongly influenced by structural changes induced by long-range order, which can be achieved by using block copolymers that self-assemble into crystalline structures. These blends result in unique mesophases distinct from the pure components with self-assembly behavior modulated by solution conditions and polymer architectures. High-throughput small-angle X-ray scattering data of aqueous Pluronic P123 (PEO 20 –PPO 70 –PEO 20 ) and conjugated polyelectrolyte poly[3-(potassium-4-butanoate) thiophene-2,5-diyl] (PPBT) blends at various concentrations and temperatures were automatically classified into phase maps by autophasemap, an unsupervised statistical analysis algorithm. The outlined phase boundaries revealed that adding PPBT to high P123 concentrations induced a transition from cubicly ordered spherical micelles to hexagonally packed cylindrical micelles. Shear alignment via rheological small-angle neutron scattering of the blends produced monolithic oriented cubic and hexagonal crystal gels. Furthermore, these insights into the self-assembly of conductive polymer blends will aid in the design of soft materials with tunable structural and electronic properties.
The Power of Many: An Ensemble Approach to Spectral Similarity
Quantifying the similarity between two mass spectra─a known reference mass spectrum and an unidentified sample mass spectrum─is at the heart of compound identification workflows in gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The reference spectrum most like the sample is assigned as its identification (provided some quantitative similarity threshold is met, e.g., 80%) and thus accurately measuring similarity is essential. Significant research has gone toward developing metrics for this purpose, each of which has attempted to improve upon existing methods by incorporating GC-MS-specific information (e.g., peak ratios or retention times) or adopting various statistical and algorithmic frameworks. While this active development has led to a plethora of similarity metrics with demonstrated value across different contexts, the unfortunate consequence has been confusion surrounding which metric should be used as a global standard. No such metric is currently accepted as the standard method because different metrics have demonstrated optimal performance in different contexts. In this work, we propose an ensemble approach to spectral similarity scoring that combines the collective information from across existing similarity metrics to form an improved, globally representative similarity metric as a step toward establishing a global standard method. In conclusion, the resulting ensemble metrics are evaluated on over 88,000 spectra of varying complexity and demonstrate improved abilities to accurately rank the correct reference spectrum as the top-matching candidate for a sample relative to the rankings generated by individual similarity scores.
Assessing Historical Variability of South Asian Monsoon Lows and Depressions With an Optimized Tracking Algorithm
Abstract Cyclonic low‐pressure systems (LPS) produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where they are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in their number in recent decades, but their methods have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows. This study presents a fast, objective algorithm for identifying monsoon LPS and uses it to assess interannual variability and trends in reanalyses. Variables and thresholds used in the algorithm are selected to best match a subjectively analyzed LPS data set while minimizing disagreement between four reanalyses in a training period. The stream function of 850 hPa horizontal wind is found to be optimal in this sense; it is less noisy than vorticity and represents the complete nondivergent wind, even when flow is not geostrophic. Using this algorithm, LPS statistics are computed for five reanalyses, and none show a detectable trend in monsoon depression counts since 1979. Both the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) and the IMD data set show a step‐like reduction in depression counts when they began using geostationary satellite data, in 1979 and 1982, respectively; the 1958–2018 linear trend in JRA‐55, however, is smaller than in the IMD data set, and its error bar includes 0. There are more LPS in seasons with above‐average monsoon rainfall and in La Niña years, but few other large‐scale modes of interannual variability are found to modulate LPS counts, lifetimes, or track length consistently across reanalyses.
Identification of high-dielectric constant compounds from statistical design
Abstract The discovery of high-dielectric materials is crucial to increasing the efficiency of electronic devices and batteries. Here, we report three previously unexplored materials with very high dielectric constants (69 < ϵ < 101) and large band gaps (2.9 < E g (eV) < 5.5) obtained by screening materials databases using statistical optimization algorithms aided by artificial neural networks (ANN). Two of these new dielectrics are mixed-anion compounds (Eu 5 SiCl 6 O 4 and HoClO) and are shown to be thermodynamically stable against common semiconductors via phase diagram analysis. We also uncovered four other materials with relatively large dielectric constants (20 < ϵ < 40) and band gaps (2.3 < E g (eV) < 2.7). While the ANN training-data are obtained from the Materials Project, the search-space consists of materials from the Open Quantum Materials Database (OQMD)—demonstrating a successful implementation of cross-database materials design. Overall, we report the dielectric properties of 17 materials calculated using ab initio calculations, that were selected in our design workflow. The dielectric materials with high-dielectric properties predicted in this work open up further experimental research opportunities.