Bayesian Statistical Analysis for Mass Spectrometric Data Processing [Poster]
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Liquid radioactive waste has been stored in large, underground carbon steel tanks of 4.92-million-liter capacity at the United States Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in Aiken, South Carolina since the 1950s. The In-service inspection of the Savannah River Site High Level Waste tanks will be reviewed as well as Ultrasonic testing (UT) for detecting for general wall thinning, pitting and interface attack through accessible regions of the tanks. In-service inspection [1] of the Savannah River Site (SRS) High Level Waste (HLW) tanks is an essential element of a comprehensive structural integrity program. Inspection confirmed the effectiveness of chemistry and temperature controls used to preclude localized and general corrosion of the tanks. Ultrasonic testing is used to detect general wall thinning, pitting and interface attack, as well as vertically oriented cracks through inspection of a 21.59 cm (8.5-in.) wide strip extending over the accessible height of the primary tank wall.
This study analyzes the relationships between porosity and seismic attributes in the Delaware Basin, focusing on the Devonian, Silurian, Fusselman, and Montoya formations.
Bayesian inference applied to x-ray spectroscopy data analysis enables uncertainty quantification necessary to rigorously test theoretical models. However, when comparing to data, detailed atomic physics and radiation transfer calculations of x-ray emission from non-uniform plasma conditions are typically too slow to be performed in line with statistical sampling methods, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Furthermore, differences in transition energies and x-ray opacities often make direct comparisons between simulated and measured spectra unreliable. Here, we present a spectral decomposition method that allows for corrections to line positions and bound–bound opacities to best fit experimental data, with the goal of providing quantitative feedback to improve the underlying theoretical models and guide future experiments. In this work, we use a neural network (NN) surrogate model to replace spectral calculations of isobaric hot-spots created in Kr-doped implosions at the National Ignition Facility. The NN was trained on calculations of x-ray spectra using an isobaric hot-spot model post-processed with Cretin, a multi-species atomic kinetics and radiation code. The speedup provided by the NN model to generate x-ray emission spectra enables statistical analysis of parameterized models with sufficient detail to accurately represent the physical system and extract the plasma parameters of interest.
Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.
The search for new fundamental particles is one of the defining goals of the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The discovery of the Higgs Boson by the ATLAS and CMS collaborations provided the capstone of the Standard Model of particle physics, but outstanding questions remain. Why does the Higgs boson have a mass of 125 GeV when its natural mass would be many orders of magnitude larger? Is there a universal symmetry which unites all three forces described by the Standard Model? Can that symmetry be extended to include gravity? Is dark matter, evidenced by astronomical observations, made of a particle that interacts via Standard Model forces with the rest of matter? Together, these motivations provide compelling arguments that new physical processes await discovery. This project addressed some outstanding questions about the fundamental particles and their interactions with the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider. In particular, the project improved the discovery potential for new, long- lived particles produced via electroweak processes in proton-proton collisions and set world-leading limits on their existence for certain values of their potential mass and lifetime. To achieve this, the project developed new data analysis methods, developed new triggers to select events with new long-lived particles during data-taking of the ATLAS experiment, and analyzed the largest proton–proton collision dataset ever produced. The project also supported significant development of the data acquisition software for the upgrade to the ATLAS inner detector, the Inner TracKer (ITk). The upgrade of the ATLAS inner detector is essential to the success of the entire Phase II physics program on ATLAS. Personnel supported by the project provided support for integration, assembly, and testing of the inner two layers of the ITk pixel system during its prototype and pre-production phase. Four PhD students and two post-doctoral scholars were supported by the grant and received invaluable scientific training as part of the research endeavor. The students and postdocs gained essential professional skills in the areas of advanced data analysis techniques, statistical analysis of data and simulation, programming in C++ and Python, hardware and instrumentation development, and presentation and collaboration skills. Additionally, approximately ten undergraduate students supported through other funding sources participated in research activities synergistic with the goals of this project, receiving essential mentorship from the personnel supported by this project.
A method of applying Principal Component Analysis, Soft Independent Modeling of Class Analysis, and statistical analysis is described that can be applied to many types of testers to ascertain how well matched the performance of the testers in the analysis are to one another or how well matched a tester is to itself at a later time. This method is most useful for situations for which the same units have not been run across the testers being analyzed for matched performance.
The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .
Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.
Statistical analysis of steady-state catalytic kinetic data is often limited by data sparsity due to the slow pace at which the data is collected. Data sparsity and limitations in statistical analysis make it difficult to differentiate between mechanistic models and catalytic sites. A Bayesian inference tool is reported for catalysis researchers to estimate error in the determination of reaction orders from steady state microreactor data. The benefits of a Bayesian inference approach are discussed, as an alternative to the more common frequentist approach. The approach incorporates prior knowledge of the system and the data collected to form an error estimate on reaction orders. We investigated the effects of three distinct data treatments—individual fitting of trials, pooled analysis, and constrained regression methods—on the precision and uncertainty of reaction order determinations. To assess the robustness of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the influence of Bayesian parameters on uncertainty estimation. Additionally, we utilized synthetic data to illustrate how data quality impacts the precision of uncertainty assessments. We show Bayesian analysis can obtain a more precise estimation of error with a sparse data set than a frequentist analysis. Finally, this work provides strong evidence that the adoption of Bayesian analysis of kinetic data may help researchers make more precise arguments as to the strength of their evidence for a particular mechanistic hypothesis, or in comparing across different catalysts.
Context. Because Cepheid variable stars have long been used as a cosmic benchmark for scaling distances in our Galaxy and beyond, the accuracy of stellar evolution models for Cepheids have wide-reaching effects. However, our understanding of the dynamics in the interiors of these physically complex stars is limited. Aims. Our goal is to provide a detailed multi-dimensional picture of hydrodynamic convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of Cepheids. Methods. Using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), we studied the structure of intermediate-mass stars that cross the instability strip. Then, we performed two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of six stars with the fully compressible Multidimensional Stellar Implicit Code (MUSIC). Our simulations did not model the radial pulsations but focused on the interior structure of this family of stars. We developed and applied a new statistical analysis to examine convection and convective boundary mixing in the interior of these stellar simulations. Results. Based on a grid of MESA models, we demonstrated that a common structure for intermediate mass Cepheids includes an interior convective shell as well as a thin outer convective envelope. Using the extreme value theory approach to analyze our MUSIC simulation data, we found that overshooting above the convective shell fills the space between these convectively unstable layers. We developed a new statistical analysis that provides a clearer picture of how overshooting fills this layer; it also allowed us to formulate a detailed comparison between overshooting above and below the convective shell. Our analysis effectively decomposes the overshooting layer into two layers: a weak overshooting layer and a strong overshooting layer. Statistically, this is accomplished by decomposing the strongly non-Gaussian probability density function into a mixture of gamma distributions. Using our mixture model, we showed that the ratio of overshooting lengths above and below the convective shell depends directly on the radial extent of the convective shell as well as its depth in the star. We proposed a new form for the diffusion coefficient that addresses the need for overlapping overshooting layers between convective shells. We introduced the idea of a “super-mixing layer” where overshooting from both the convective shell and the convective envelope results in efficient mixing and could be viewed as merging the two adjacent convective zones.
Aims/hypothesis Progression to type 1 diabetes is associated with genetic factors, the presence of autoantibodies and a decline in beta cell insulin secretion in response to glucose. Very little is known regarding the molecular changes that occur in human insulin-secreting beta cells prior to the onset of type 1 diabetes. Herein, we applied an unbiased proteomics approach to identify changes in proteins and potential mechanisms of islet dysfunction in islet-autoantibody-positive organ donors with pre-symptomatic stage 1 type 1 diabetes (HbA1c ≤42 mmol/mol [6.0%]). We aimed to identify pathways in islets that are indicative of beta cell dysfunction. Methods Multiple islet sections were collected through laser microdissection of frozen pancreatic tissues from organ donors positive for single or multiple islet autoantibodies (AAb + , n=5), and age (±2 years)- and sex-matched non-diabetic (ND) control donors (n=5) obtained from the Network for Pancreatic Organ donors with Diabetes (nPOD). Islet sections were subjected to MS-based proteomics and analysed with label-free quantification followed by pathway and functional annotations. Results Analyses resulted in ~4500 proteins identified with low false discovery rate (<1%), with 2165 proteins reliably quantified in every islet sample. We observed large inter-donor variations that presented a challenge for statistical analysis of proteome changes between donor groups. We therefore focused on only the donors with stage 1 type 1 diabetes who were positive for multiple autoantibodies (mAAb + , n=3) and genetic risk compared with their matched ND controls (n=3) for the final statistical analysis. Approximately 10% of the proteins (n=202) were significantly different (unadjusted p<0.025, q<0.15) for mAAb + vs ND donor islets. The significant alterations clustered around major functions for upregulation in the immune response and glycolysis, and downregulation in endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress response as well as protein translation and synthesis. The observed proteome changes were further supported by several independent published datasets, including a proteomics dataset from in vitro proinflammatory cytokine-treated human islets and single-cell RNA-seq datasets from AAb + individuals. Conclusions/interpretation In situ human islet proteome alterations in stage 1 type 1 diabetes centred around several major functional categories, including an expected increase in immune response genes (elevated antigen presentation/HLA), with decreases in protein synthesis and ER stress response, as well as compensatory metabolic response. The dataset serves as a proteomics resource for future studies on beta cell changes during type 1 diabetes progression and pathogenesis. Data availability The LC-MS raw datasets that support the findings of this study have been deposited in the online repository: MassIVE (https://massive.ucsd.edu/ProteoSAFe/static/massive.jsp) with accession no. MSV000090212.
The U.S. Department of Energy and National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) research platform. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes the behavior of a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane MC250 electrolyzer system, manufactured by Nel Hydrogen , [1] when fed historical data generated by the 430-kW, fixed-axis solar photovoltaic (PV) array located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus. (While the electrolyzer balance of plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack.) Solar PV power output data for the 2020 calendar year were categorized on a daily basis by total energy generation and standard deviation. Each day was then ranked by these metrics, and the 25th, 50th, and 100th percentiles were selected. The 75th percentile day did not exhibit sufficient variability to make for a valuable experiment. A similar process was used for the related historical wind dataset . [2] The historical days in 2020 that represented these percentiles are Dec. 19, March 29, and May 4, respectively. The entire solar day’s power profile was then fed through the MC250 electrolyzer. Due to its length, the 100th percentile day experiment was split into two parts, and the final 3 hours of the solar day were not captured. These final 3 hours contained no spikes or dips of interest and simply represented a slow decay of input solar power. Also, a single timestamp (13:13:47 on Jan. 14, 2026) was lost in the hydrogen system supervisory control and data acquisition. Finally, during the 25th percentile experiment (solar day Dec. 19, 2020) data recording was lost from 11:00:13 to 11:14:45. The roughly 15 minutes of the solar profile were rerun at the end of the experiment and spliced into this time slot during post-processing. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying direct current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3,000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current–voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical solar profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1-Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the slide deck “Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis: NLR Historical Solar PV Analysis and Profile Generation” accessible with this data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single solar PV electrolysis experiment and is formatted as: {technology}_{percentile}_{scaling factor} For instance, “solarPV-430kW_25_2x.zip” reports the experiment using the 25th percentile solar data from the historical 2020 solar PV dataset, scaled to 200%. Scaling factors were applied to the generated solar PV power output files to more closely match the 1.25-MW capacity of the electrolyzer. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data. An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and solar power input. A PDF file detailing the historical solar data statistical analysis used to generate the solar profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_solarPV_experiments.csv". [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser . [2] data.nlr.gov/submissions/316 .
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HSSHTC, the safety basis steady state TH code for HFIR, uses a highly conservative approach in which all input and calculation uncertainties are resolved simultaneously at their most limiting setting. This results in excessive conservatism which does not account for the high unlikelihood of such simultaneous worst-case conditions. The present study explores an alternative approach, BEPU, in which reasonable working assumptions for the probability distribution of each input uncertainty are used to determine a relationship between burnout power margin and core fuel failure probability. This was performed under a philosophy of perturbing uncertainty parameters already defined within the HSSHTC methodology while preserving the HSSHTC calculation approach and solution methodology itself. Based on the assumptions employed in this study, the BEPU approach resulted in a 0.29 increase in burnout power ratio (25 MW increase in burnout power) compared to the latest HSSHTC calculations of C-HFIR-2026-004. The study can be refined in the future by employing fuel fabrication data to provide more realistic input distributions. Future changes to the HSSHTC methodology would potentially allow a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties which may further increase the burnout power ratio.
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Overview Code and data repository for NIL Manuscript. Documentation includes sequence processing examples and data analysis. Supplemental sequence processing and R statistical analysis for publication, which compares the microbiome of teosinte-B73 Near Isogenic Lines. Sample Data Amplicon sequence data for 16S rRNA genes, the fungal ITS2 region, and nitrogen-cycling functional genes are available through the NCBI Sequence Read Archive (SRA) under accession number PRJNA1042643(https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/bioproject/PRJNA1042643). Raw metabolomic data are available on Metabolomics Workbench, Project ID: PR002654. This study is available at the NIH Common Fund's National Metabolomics Data Repository (NMDR) website, the Metabolomics Workbench, https://www.metabolomicsworkbench.org where it has been assigned Study ID ST004211. The data can be accessed directly via its Project DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21228/M8KV8T.
Unambiguous identification of active sites in heterogeneous catalysis remains a major challenge, particularly for materials with ultrathin, chemically mixed surface layers. Here, we demonstrate a generalizable approach that combines time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) with multivariate statistical analysis (principal component analysis [PCA] and multivariate curve resolution [MCR]) to resolve catalytically relevant motifs at the nanoscale. Using Ni electrodes as a model system, PCA distinguished hydroxide-enriched domains from oxide- and metal-rich regions, while MCR decomposed depth profiles and 3D images into hydroxide, oxide, and metallic layers with nanometer resolution. A unique secondary-ion fragment, NiO 3 H 3 − (m/z 108.94), emerged as a marker of hydroxide-rich environments and correlated with hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) activity across a series of Ni electrodes. Complementary density functional theory (DFT) calculations revealed that Ni(OH) 2 clusters adjacent to metallic Ni offer the most favorable water dissociation energetics, establishing the structural origin of the marker. While illustrated here for Ni-based HER, this workflow provides a broadly applicable framework to isolate and rank near-surface patterns that govern catalytic activity, thereby extending ToF-SIMS from a qualitative probe to a predictive tool for active site identification.