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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2000

Constraints on Cosmological Parameters From The Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect and Thermal Bremsstrahlung

We discuss the possibility of constraining cosmological parameters using the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect and thermal bremsstrahlung caused by intra-cluster gas in clusters of galaxies. The new generation of X-ray satellites and ground based interferometers dedicated to SZ observations will enable one to reduce uncertainties in these measurements, and thus make this method potentially quite promising in the near future. The importance of this method is that, unlike most other methods, it is based on physical principles, no 'standard candles' or 'rulers' needed. We estimate the accuracy achievable in the determination of the matter density, OMEGA(sub m), the cosmological constant, OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and the Hubble constant, h, using the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance derived from observations in the near future. We demonstrate that constraints from the angular diameter distance are orthogonal to those from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) fluctuations in the parameter space defined by OMEGA(sub m), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA), and h. Assuming a statistical error of five percent in the angular diameter distance for each cluster in a sample of five hundred clusters, we show that the redshift dependence of the angular diameter distance combined with constraints from CMB fluctuations can put stringent constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.03), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.03) and h (+/- 0.03, 3(sigma) errors). We also show that, with as few as 50 clusters between redshifts 0.01 and 1.5 with an assumed 10% statistical error in the angular diameter distance determination, one can distinguish between models with zero cosmological constant and spatially flat models with a cosmological constant with high confidence level (independently from the supernova results) and put meaningful constraints on OMEGA(sub m) (+/- 0.01), OMEGA(sub LAMBDA) (+/- 0.01) and h (+/- 0.01, 3(sigma) errors). With the expected advances in observational technology, we will be limited by systematic errors. We discuss the sources of systematic errors and how they can be reduced.

Molnar, S. M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of three-cornered hat error estimates in MERRA-2 to guide an improved reanalysis-Part 1

The three-cornered hat (3CH) method estimates the uncertainties of three different co-located model or observational data sets (Anthes and Rieckh, 2018; Sjoberg et al., 2021). Rieckh et al. (2021) used the 3CH method to compare the random error statistics of different global forecast and reanalysis models, as well as radio occultation (RO) and radiosonde observations. That study showed that the MERRA-2 reanalysis, while having smaller errors in the stratosphere than its predecessor MERRA, had larger errors in the troposphere than many of the other data sets analyzed. The MERRA-2 errors were particularly large in the tropics. In a collaborative effort between UCAR’s COSMIC (Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Meteorology) program and NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), we carried out further 3CH error diagnostics to help isolate the causes of these larger errors and help guide the development of an improved reanalysis. This presentation summarizes random error statistics associated with MERRA-2, ECMWF’s ERA5 reanalysis, and COSMIC-2 (C2) RO observations. We compute 3CH error variance estimates of refractivity, as well as temperature and specific humidity using UCAR’s COSMIC Data Analysis and Archive Center (CDAAC) improved 1D-variational (1D-Var) retrieval (wetPf2) over 15 latitude bands from 45S to 45N. The 1D-Var retrievals of specific humidity and temperature for C2 use NCEP’s Global Forecast System (GFS) as the background. Anthes et al. (2021) showed that it gives accurate estimates of temperature and specific humidity in the tropics and subtropics, even in the challenging environment of intense Hurricane Dorian (2019). This presentation confirms the previous results that MERRA-2 has significantly larger errors in the tropics and subtropics than either C2 or ERA5. Its errors are larger between 30S and 30N compared to 30-45 N-S latitudes, and are also larger over land compared to oceans. Most of the MERRA-2 refractivity errors come from specific humidity, except over land below 3 km where temperature errors are large. These results suggest that moist convection and atmospheric boundary layer physics in MERRA-2 may be responsible for a significant part of the higher uncertainties. These results are being used to guide GMAO in developing an improved next-generation reanalysis, as shown in a companion presentation submitted to this conference (El Akkraoui et al., 2021), which extends this study and describes improvements to MERRA-2 leading to the next GMAO reanalysis.

Jeremiah Sjoberg↗
NASA NTRS1971

L-/S-band calibration error analysis.

Results of a statistical error analysis performed to determine the degree of uncertainty encountered when calibrating steerable receiving antennas with the solar calibration method. The analysis considers the propagation of precision error indices. It is shown that a worst-case one-sigma (1 sigma) uncertainty of plus or minus 0.8 dB in system noise temperature occurs for a solar calibration at L-band. Somewhat better precision can be achieved by monitoring the antenna gain-to-noise temperature ratio at a station; a worst-case uncertainty of plus or minus 0.5 dB (1 sigma) can be realized. An error analysis is made of a method to determine absolute antenna gain based upon solar flux density. The uncertainty in this type of measurement is plus or minus 0.7 dB (1 sigma) at L- and S-band frequencies.

Taylor, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1971

Vhf/uhf stellar calibration error analysis.

Results of a statistical error analysis performed to determine the degree of uncertainty encountered when calibrating steerable vhf/uhf receiving antennas with the stellar calibration method. The analysis considers the propagation of precision error indices. It is shown that an antenna gain calibration by the stellar method has a one-sigma (1 sigma) uncertainty of plus or minus 0.65 dB at 1440 MHz (L-band), and plus or minus 0.8 dB (1 sigma) at 136 MHz (vhf). Somewhat increased precision can be achieved by monitoring the antenna gain-to-noise temperature ratio at a station; a worst-case uncertainty of plus or minus 0.4 dB (1 sigma) can be realized at both L-band and vhf. Finally, field test measurements of antenna gain, obtained at 136 MHz in the NASA space tracking and data acquisition network, demonstrate an uncertainty of plus or minus 1.0 dB or less, which effectively confirms the analytical result.

Taylor, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Reconstruction of the 1997/1998 El Nino from TOPEX/POSEIDON and TOGA/TAO Data Using a Massively Parallel Pacific-Ocean Model and Ensemble Kalman Filter

Two massively parallel data assimilation systems in which the model forecast-error covariances are estimated from the distribution of an ensemble of model integrations are applied to the assimilation of 97-98 TOPEX/POSEIDON altimetry and TOGA/TAO temperature data into a Pacific basin version the NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP)ls quasi-isopycnal ocean general circulation model. in the first system, ensemble of model runs forced by an ensemble of atmospheric model simulations is used to calculate asymptotic error statistics. The data assimilation then occurs in the reduced phase space spanned by the corresponding leading empirical orthogonal functions. The second system is an ensemble Kalman filter in which new error statistics are computed during each assimilation cycle from the time-dependent ensemble distribution. The data assimilation experiments are conducted on NSIPP's 512-processor CRAY T3E. The two data assimilation systems are validated by withholding part of the data and quantifying the extent to which the withheld information can be inferred from the assimilation of the remaining data. The pros and cons of each system are discussed.

Keppenne, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The TOPSAR interferometric radar topographic mapping instrument

We have augmented the NASA DC-8 Airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR) instrument with a pair of C-band antennas displaced across the track to form an interferometer sensitive to topographic variations of the Earth's surface. The antennas were developed by Alenia Spazio under the sponsorship of the Italian Space Agency (ASI), and the AIRSAR instrument and modifications to it supporting TOPSAR were sponsored by NASA. A new data processor was developed at JPL for producing the topographic maps. As of May 1991, one engineering flight line over San Francisco, CA was reduced to a cartographically rectified topographic map. Analysis of the results indicates that statistical errors are in the range of 2 to 4 m, while systematic effects due to aircraft motion are in the range of 6 to 12 m. Future aircraft motion compensation algorithms should reduce the systematic variations to near zero, while the statistical errors could likely be reduced to 2 m or less with some processor improvements.

Zebker, Howard A.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The TOPSAR interferometric radar topographic mapping instrument

The NASA DC-8 AIRSAR instrument has been augmented with a pair of C-band antennas displaced across track to form an interferometer sensitive to topographic variations of the earth's surface. During the 1991 DC-8 flight campaign, data were acquired over several sites in the U.S. and Europe, and topographic maps were produced from several of these flight lines. Analysis of the results indicate that statistical errors are in the 2-4 m range, while systematic effects due to aircraft motion are in the 10-20 m range. Initial results from development of a second generation processor at JPL show that aircraft motion compensation algorithms reduce the systematic variations to 2 m, while the statistical errors are reduced to 2-3 m.

Zebker, Howard A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions. Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz model as well as more realistic models of the means and atmosphere. A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter situations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members. The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to be quite puzzling in that results state estimates are worse than for their filter analogue. In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use the Lorenz model to test and compare the behavior of a variety of implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqui↗
NASA NTRS1999

The Behavior of Filters and Smoothers for Strongly Nonlinear Dynamics

The Kalman filter is the optimal filter in the presence of known Gaussian error statistics and linear dynamics. Filter extension to nonlinear dynamics is non trivial in the sense of appropriately representing high order moments of the statistics. Monte Carlo, ensemble-based, methods have been advocated as the methodology for representing high order moments without any questionable closure assumptions (e.g., Miller 1994). Investigation along these lines has been conducted for highly idealized dynamics such as the strongly nonlinear Lorenz (1963) model as well as more realistic models of the oceans (Evensen and van Leeuwen 1996) and atmosphere (Houtekamer and Mitchell 1998). A few relevant issues in this context are related to the necessary number of ensemble members to properly represent the error statistics and, the necessary modifications in the usual filter equations to allow for correct update of the ensemble members (Burgers 1998). The ensemble technique has also been applied to the problem of smoothing for which similar questions apply. Ensemble smoother examples, however, seem to quite puzzling in that results of state estimate are worse than for their filter analogue (Evensen 1997). In this study, we use concepts in probability theory to revisit the ensemble methodology for filtering and smoothing in data assimilation. We use Lorenz (1963) model to test and compare the behavior of a variety implementations of ensemble filters. We also implement ensemble smoothers that are able to perform better than their filter counterparts. A discussion of feasibility of these techniques to large data assimilation problems will be given at the time of the conference.

Zhu, Yanqiu↗
NASA NTRS2016

NuSTAR AND Swift Observations of the Very High State in GX 339-4: Weighing the Black Hole With X-Rays

We present results from spectral fitting of the very high state of GX339-4 with Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) and Swift. We use relativistic reflection modeling to measure the spin of the black hole and inclination of the inner disk and find a spin of a = 0.95+0.08/-0.02 and inclination of 30deg +/- 1deg (statistical errors). These values agree well with previous results from reflection modeling. With the exceptional sensitivity of NuSTAR at the high-energy side of the disk spectrum, we are able to constrain multiple physical parameters simultaneously using continuum fitting. By using the constraints from reflection as input for the continuum fitting method, we invert the conventional fitting procedure to estimate the mass and distance of GX 339-4 using just the X-ray spectrum, finding a mass of 9.0+1.6/-1.2 Stellar Mass and distance of 8.4 +/- 0.9 kpc (statistical errors).

accretion↗
NASA NTRS1977

Laser Doppler, velocimeter system for turbine stator cascade studies and analysis of statistical biasing errors

A laser Doppler velocimeter (LDV) built for use in the Lewis Research Center's turbine stator cascade facilities is described. The signal processing and self contained data processing are based on a computing counter. A procedure is given for mode matching the laser to the probe volume. An analysis is presented of biasing errors that were observed in turbulent flow when the mean flow was not normal to the fringes.

Seasholtz, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Optical mass memory investigation

The MASTER 1 optical mass storage system advanced working model (AWM) was designed to demonstrate recording and playback of imagery data and to enable quantitative data to be derived as to the statistical distribution of raw errors experienced through the system. The AWM consists of two subsystems, the recorder and storage and retrieval. The recorder subsystem utilizes key technologies such as an acoustic travelling wave lens to achieve recording of digital data on fiche at a rate of 30 Mbits/sec, whereas the storage and retrieval reproducer subsystem utilizes a less complex optical system that employs an acousto-optical beam deflector to achieve data readout at a 5 Mbits/sec rate. The system has the built in capability for detecting and collecting error statistics. The recorder and storage and retrieval subsystems operate independent of one another and are each constructed in modular form with each module performing independent functions. The operation of each module and its interface to other modules is controlled by one controller for both subsystems.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1995

Heterogeneous reactions of HNO3(g) + NaCl(s) yields HCl(g) + NaNO3(s) and N2O5(g) + NaCl(s) yields ClNO2(g) + NaNO3(s)

The heterogeneous reactions of HNO3(g) + NaCl(s) yields HCl(g) + NaNO3(s) (eq 1) and N2O5(g) + NaCl(s) yields ClNO2(g) + NaNO3(S) (eq 2) were investigated over the temperature range 223-296 K in a flow-tube reactor coupled to a quadrupole mass spectrometer. Either a chemical ionization mass spectrometer (CIMS) or an electron-impact ionization mass spectrometer (EIMS) was used to provide suitable detection sensitivity and selectivity. In order to mimic atmospheric conditions, partial pressures of HNO3 and N2O5 in the range 6 x 10(exp -8) - 2 x 10(exp -6) Torr were used. Granule sizes and surface roughness of the solid NaCl substrates were determined by using a scanning electron microscope. For dry NaCl substrates, decay rates of HNO3 were used to obtain gamma(1) = 0.013 +/- 0.004 (1sigma) at 296 K and > 0.008 at 223 K, respectively. The error quoted is the statistical error. After all corrections were made, the overall error, including systematic error, was estimated to be about a factor of 2. HCl was found to be the sole gas-phase product of reaction 1. The mechanism changed from heterogeneous reaction to predominantly physical adsorption when the reactor was cooled from 296 to 223 K. For reaction 2 using dry salts, gamma(2) was found to be less than 1.0 x 10(exp -4) at both 223 and 296 K. The gas-phase reaction product was identified as ClNO2 in previous studies using an infrared spectrometer. An enhancement in reaction probability was observed if water was not completely removed from salt surfaces, probably due to the reaction of N2O5(g) + H2O(s) yields 2HNO3(g). Our results are compared with previous literature values obtained using different experimental techniques and conditions. The implications of the present results for the enhancement of the hydrogen chloride column density in the lower stratosphere after the El Chichon volcanic eruption and for the chemistry of HCl and HNO3 in the marine troposphere are discussed.

Leu, Ming-Taun↗
NASA NTRS2010

Performance Bounds on Two Concatenated, Interleaved Codes

A method has been developed of computing bounds on the performance of a code comprised of two linear binary codes generated by two encoders serially concatenated through an interleaver. Originally intended for use in evaluating the performances of some codes proposed for deep-space communication links, the method can also be used in evaluating the performances of short-block-length codes in other applications. The method applies, more specifically, to a communication system in which following processes take place: At the transmitter, the original binary information that one seeks to transmit is first processed by an encoder into an outer code (Co) characterized by, among other things, a pair of numbers (n,k), where n (n > k)is the total number of code bits associated with k information bits and n k bits are used for correcting or at least detecting errors. Next, the outer code is processed through either a block or a convolutional interleaver. In the block interleaver, the words of the outer code are processed in blocks of I words. In the convolutional interleaver, the interleaving operation is performed bit-wise in N rows with delays that are multiples of B bits. The output of the interleaver is processed through a second encoder to obtain an inner code (Ci) characterized by (ni,ki). The output of the inner code is transmitted over an additive-white-Gaussian- noise channel characterized by a symbol signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) Es/No and a bit SNR Eb/No. At the receiver, an inner decoder generates estimates of bits. Depending on whether a block or a convolutional interleaver is used at the transmitter, the sequence of estimated bits is processed through a block or a convolutional de-interleaver, respectively, to obtain estimates of code words. Then the estimates of the code words are processed through an outer decoder, which generates estimates of the original information along with flags indicating which estimates are presumed to be correct and which are found to be erroneous. From the perspective of the present method, the topic of major interest is the performance of the communication system as quantified in the word-error rate and the undetected-error rate as functions of the SNRs and the total latency of the interleaver and inner code. The method is embodied in equations that describe bounds on these functions. Throughout the derivation of the equations that embody the method, it is assumed that the decoder for the outer code corrects any error pattern of t or fewer errors, detects any error pattern of s or fewer errors, may detect some error patterns of more than s errors, and does not correct any patterns of more than t errors. Because a mathematically complete description of the equations that embody the method and of the derivation of the equations would greatly exceed the space available for this article, it must suffice to summarize by reporting that the derivation includes consideration of several complex issues, including relationships between latency and memory requirements for block and convolutional codes, burst error statistics, enumeration of error-event intersections, and effects of different interleaving depths. In a demonstration, the method was used to calculate bounds on the performances of several communication systems, each based on serial concatenation of a (63,56) expurgated Hamming code with a convolutional inner code through a convolutional interleaver. The bounds calculated by use of the method were compared with results of numerical simulations of performances of the systems to show the regions where the bounds are tight (see figure).

Moision, Bruce↗
NASA NTRS2016

Optical Error Budgeting Using Linearized Ray-Trace Models

The Root-Sum-Squared, or “RSS” wavefront error model is a simple, scalar tool, commonly used for space telescope error budgeting. At the same time, much more detailed models, combining ray-trace and Fourier optics with optical alignments and wavefront controls, can provide accurate, high -resolution simulations for detailed system and subsystem design. This paper makes a connection between the two modeling approaches by deriving RSS model coefficients from ray-trace models, including the effects of wavefront controls, for computing system performance from component error statistics. It is shown that, properly constructed, the simple RSS error budget is a covariance analysis, and can be as accurate as high-resolution wavefront models for statistical wavefront error prediction. A notional segmented-aperture space telescope is used to illustrate this error modeling process.

Wavefront error↗
NASA NTRS1982

The intercrater plains of Mercury and the Moon: Their nature, origin and role in terrestrial planet evolution. Measurement and errors of crater statistics

Planetary imagery techniques, errors in measurement or degradation assignment, and statistical formulas are presented with respect to cratering data. Base map photograph preparation, measurement of crater diameters and sampled area, and instruments used are discussed. Possible uncertainties, such as Sun angle, scale factors, degradation classification, and biases in crater recognition are discussed. The mathematical formulas used in crater statistics are presented.

Leake, M. A.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of Kalman filter and optimal smoother estimates of spacecraft attitude

Given a valid system model and adequate observability, a Kalman filter will converge toward the true system state with error statistics given by the estimated error covariance matrix. The errors generally do not continue to decrease. Rather, a balance is reached between the gain of information from new measurements and the loss of information during propagation. The errors can be further reduced, however, by a second pass through the data with an optimal smoother. This algorithm obtains the optimally weighted average of forward and backward propagating Kalman filters. It roughly halves the error covariance by including future as well as past measurements in each estimate. This paper investigates whether such benefits actually accrue in the application of an optimal smoother to spacecraft attitude determination. Tests are performed both with actual spacecraft data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) and with simulated data for which the true state vector and noise statistics are exactly known.

Sedlak, J.↗