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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances

Abstract. There has been widespread adoption of downscaled products amongst practitioners and stakeholders to ascertain risk from climate hazards at the local scale (e.g., ∼ 5 km resolution). Such products must nevertheless be consistent with physical laws to be credible and of value to users. Here we evaluate statistically and dynamically downscaled products by examining local co-evolution of downscaled temperature and precipitation during convective and frontal precipitation events (two mechanisms testable with just temperature and precipitation). We find that two widely used statistical downscaling techniques (Localized Constructed Analogs version 2, LOCA2, and Seasonal Trends and Analysis of Residuals Empirical Statistical Downscaling Model, STAR-ESDM) generally preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation events over the historical and future projected intervals as compared to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) and two observation-based data products (Livneh and nClimGrid-Daily). However, both techniques dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation that is otherwise robustly captured in global climate models (i.e., prior to downscaling) and with process-based dynamical downscaling across five different regional climate models. In the case of LOCA2, this leads to appreciable underestimation of future frontal precipitation event intensity. This study is one of the first to quantify a likely ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling methods and identify a phenomenon where projections of future change diverge depending on data production method employed. Finally, our work proposes expected co-variances during convective and frontal precipitation as useful evaluation diagnostics that can be universally applied to a wide range of statistically downscaled products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

White paper on light sterile neutrino searches and related phenomenology

This white paper provides a comprehensive review of our present understanding of experimental neutrino anomalies that remain unresolved, charting the progress achieved over the last decade at the experimental and phenomenological level, and sets the stage for future programmatic prospects in addressing those anomalies. It is purposed to serve as a guiding and motivational "encyclopedic" reference, with emphasis on needs and options for future exploration that may lead to the ultimate resolution of the anomalies. We see the main experimental, analysis, and theory-driven thrusts that will be essential to achieving this goal being: 1) Cover all anomaly sectors -- given the unresolved nature of all four canonical anomalies, it is imperative to support all pillars of a diverse experimental portfolio, source, reactor, decay-at-rest, decay-in-flight, and other methods/sources, to provide complementary probes of and increased precision for new physics explanations; 2) Pursue diverse signatures -- it is imperative that experiments make design and analysis choices that maximize sensitivity to as broad an array of these potential new physics signatures as possible; 3) Deepen theoretical engagement -- priority in the theory community should be placed on development of standard and beyond standard models relevant to all four short-baseline anomalies and the development of tools for efficient tests of these models with existing and future experimental datasets; 4) Openly share data -- Fluid communication between the experimental and theory communities will be required, which implies that both experimental data releases and theoretical calculations should be publicly available; and 5) Apply robust analysis techniques -- Appropriate statistical treatment is crucial to assess the compatibility of data sets within the context of any given model.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2026

Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP)

Anthropogenic climate change is unfolding rapidly, yet its regional manifestation can be obscured by internal variability. A primary goal of climate science is to identify the externally forced climate response from among the noise of internal variability. Separating the forced response from internal variability can be addressed in climate models by using a large ensemble to average over different possible realizations of internal variability. However, with only one realization of the real world, it is a major challenge to isolate the forced response directly in observations. In the Forced Component Estimation Statistical Method Intercomparison Project (ForceSMIP), contributors used existing and newly developed statistical and machine learning methods to estimate the forced response over 1950–2022 within individual realizations of the climate system. Participants used neural networks, linear inverse models, fingerprinting methods, and low-frequency component analysis, among other approaches. These methods were trained using large ensembles from multiple climate models and then applied to observations. Here, we evaluate method performance within large ensembles and investigate the estimates of the forced response in observations. Our results show that many different types of methods are skillful for estimating the forced response in climate models, though the relative skill of individual methods varies depending on the variable and evaluation metric. Methods with comparable skill in models can give a wide range of estimates of the forced response pattern in observations, illustrating the epistemic uncertainty in forced response estimates. ForceSMIP gives new insights into the forced response in observations, its uncertainty, and methods for its estimation.

Climate attribution↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Bayesian Inverse Problems: A High-Dimensional Statistics Viewpoint

This paper analyzes hierarchical Bayesian inverse problems using techniques from highdimensional statistics. Furthermore, our analysis leverages a property of hierarchical Bayesian regularizers that we call approximate decomposability to obtain non-asymptotic bounds on the reconstruction error attained by maximum a posteriori estimators. The new theory explains how hierarchical Bayesian models that exploit sparsity, group sparsity, and sparse representations of the unknown parameter can achieve accurate reconstructions in high-dimensional settings.

MAP estimation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forward modeling fluctuations in the DESI LRGs target sample using image simulations

We use the forward modeling pipeline, Obiwan, to study the imaging systematics of the Luminous Red Galaxies (LRGs) targeted by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Imaging systematics refers to the false fluctuation of galaxy densities due to varying observing conditions and astrophysical foregrounds corresponding to the imaging surveys from which DESI LRG target galaxies are selected. We update the Obiwan pipeline, which we previously developed to simulate the optical images used to target DESI data, to further simulate WISE images in the infrared. This addition allows simulating the DESI LRGs sample, which utilizes WISE data in the target selection. Deep DESI imaging data combined with a method to account for biases in their shapes is used to define a truth sample of potential LRG targets. We inject these data evenly throughout the DESI Legacy Imaging Survey footprint at declinations between -30 and 32.375 degrees. We simulate a total of 15 million galaxies to obtain a simulated LRG sample (Obiwan LRGs) that predicts the variations in target density due to imaging properties. We find that the simulations predict the trends with depth observed in the data, including how they depend on the intrinsic brightness of the galaxies. We observe that faint LRGs are the main contributing source of the imaging systematics trend induced by depth. We also find significant trends in the data against Galactic extinction that are not predicted by Obiwan. These trends depend strongly on the particular map of Galactic extinction chosen to test against, implying systematic contamination in the Galactic extinction maps is a likely root cause (e.g., Cosmic-Infrared Background, dust temperature correction). We additionally observe a morphological change of the DESI LRGs population evidenced by a correlation between OII emission line average intensity and the size of the z-band PSF. This effect most likely results from uncertainties in background subtraction. The detailed findings we present should be used to guide any observational systematics mitigation treatment for the clustering of the DESI LRGs sample.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Exploring quantum statistics for massive Dirac and Majorana neutrinos using spinor-helicity techniques

Recently, there has been interest in the applicability of quantum statistics to distinguish Dirac from Majorana neutrinos in multineutrino final states. In particular, debate has arisen over the validity of the Dirac-Majorana confusion theorem in these processes, i.e., that any distinction between the Dirac and Majorana processes goes to zero as the neutrino mass goes to zero. Here we approach this problem equipped with spinor-helicity methods generalized for massive Dirac and Majorana fermions. We explicitly calculate all helicity amplitudes, and their squares, for the decay of a light scalar particle to two neutrinos and two oppositely charged leptons. This allows us to pinpoint the crucial steps which could lead to claims of a violation of the confusion theorem. We show that, if the correct antisymmetrization of Dirac to Majorana amplitudes is used, identification of which is clear in this framework, and all relevant contributions are appropriately summed, a scalar decay into two charged leptons and two neutrinos satisfies the Dirac-Majorana confusion theorem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative measurements of dislocations in metals for advancing predictive simulations

LLNL applications require scientists to predict how materials evolve under various thermomechanical conditions. While this is achieved through physics-based simulations, uncertainty in the predictions of mechanical properties remains a serious challenge that limits the predictive capabilities of models because we lack methods to compare predictions of atomic-scale defects (dislocations) with experimental measurements. High energy X-ray diffraction (HEXRD) is the most relevant technique that can provide the necessary statistical information on dislocations. However, this technique is not yet quantitative because we lack a precise understanding of the relationship between X-ray diffraction patterns and the underlying material dislocation content and arrangements. To address this need, we used our novel computational X-ray diffraction method to simulate the effect of dislocations on the diffraction patterns. We compared virtual and experimental diffraction patterns. Results allowed us to clearly establish the relationship between X-ray diffraction patterns and the underlying dislocation structures, proving that it is feasible to quantitatively measure dislocation statistics with HEXRD. This project delivered a method that can provide the missing piece to LLNL’s mechanical property simulations in advanced metals by obtaining experimentally long-needed quantitative dislocation data, which could fully enable predictive capabilities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

CV4Quantum: Reducing the Sampling Overhead in Probabilistic Error Cancellation Using Control Variates

Quasiprobabilistic decompositions (QPDs) play a key role in maximizing the utility of near-term quantum hardware. For example, Probabilistic Error Cancellation (PEC) (an error mitigation technique) and circuit cutting (which enables large quantum computations to be performed on quantum hardware with a limited number of qubits) both involve QPDs. Computations based on QPDs typically incur large sampling overheads that grow exponentially with the number of error-terms mitigated or number of circuit-cuts employed, limiting their practical feasibility. In this work, we adapt the control variates variance reduction technique from the statistics literature in order to reduce the sampling overhead in QPD-based computations. We demonstrate our method using simulation experiments that mimic a realistic PEC scenario. In our experiments, we observed a more than 50% reduction in the number of samples needed to achieve a given precision, in more than 50% of the PEC-based estimations performed in the study when using our approach. We discuss how future research on constructing good control variates can lead to even stronger sampling overhead reduction.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)

As with all empirical sciences, nuclear physics operates in the virtuous cycle of the scientific method: observations inspire theoretical models; models lead to new predictions; predictions are tested in experiments; experiments lead to new observations; and so on. Evaluating what we are inferring, and how certain we are of it, is key to this process. These requirements, and a general interest in applying novel statistical, mathematical, and computational techniques, led to the formation of a dedicated research community entitled “Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)” (https://isnet-series.github.io/), which now includes more than 300 members. While the community’s interests lean toward nuclear theory, the unifying theme for this group is the inference of knowledge from data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effective Defect Detection Using Instance Segmentation for NDI

Ultrasonic testing is a common Non-Destructive Inspection (NDI) method used in aerospace manufacturing. However, the complexity and size of the ultrasonic scans make it challenging to identify defects through visual inspection or machine learning models. Using computer vision techniques to identify defects from ultrasonic scans is an evolving research area. In this study, we used instance segmentation to identify the presence of defects in the ultrasonic scan images of composite panels that are representative of real components manufactured in aerospace. We used two models based on Mask- RCNN (Detectron 2) and YOLO 11 respectively. Additionally, we implemented a simple statistical pre-processing technique that reduces the burden of requiring custom-tailored pre-processing techniques. Our study demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of using instance segmentation in the NDI pipeline by significantly reducing data pre-processing time, inspection time, and overall costs.

computer vision techniques↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atom-at-a-Time Radioactive Molecule Identification: Looking toward Studies of Superheavy Elements

The chemical behavior of superheavy elements (SHEs, Z > 103) remains poorly understood. Their chemical properties are expected to deviate from established trends, challenging the predictive power of the periodic table. To investigate these elements experimentally, they must first be synthesized through nuclear reactions and then quickly subjected to chemical studies before they decay. Given the low production rates of these reactions and the need for measurements on an atom-at-a-time basis, innovative techniques are needed. Here, to address these challenges, a novel gas-phase chemistry method has been developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, utilizing the Berkeley Gas-filled Separator and FIONA. This technique enables the production, identification, and study of molecular species formed by SHEs. As a proof of concept, we present measurements on the formation and identification of 151,152 HoO + molecules, demonstrating the capability to study the production of radioactive molecules under controlled conditions and directly identify them via their mass-to-charge ratio. These measurements validate the effectiveness of this technique for low-statistics SHE studies, highlighting the potential of this approach to ignite the next generation of experimental SHE chemistry research, offering a path to re-evaluate SHE placement on the periodic table.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

How are Heterogeneous Nucleation Rate Observations Influenced by Instrument Resolution?

Experimental measurements of the heterogeneous nucleation rate rely on counting the number of nuclei with time. However, the size of a thermodynamically stable nucleus is often a few nanometers in diameter and is below the resolution of most (in situ) measurement techniques that provide a statistically valid sample. Due to the finite resolution of the instruments and analysis methods, it is challenging to capture the incipient nuclei and the subsequent evolution of nuclei density over time. In this work, we demonstrate the impact of instrument resolution on observed nuclei densities by comparing numerical modeling with experimental results. Further, to achieve this, we implemented heterogeneous nucleation within the pore-scale reactive transport modeling framework using classical nucleation theory (CNT). We compared the modeling results with nucleation rates measured using X-ray nanotomography (XnT) and evaluated how these impact the apparent values of the prefactor and interfacial energy based on CNT and the crystal growth rate. Specifically, we applied a resolution threshold (artificial resolution limit) in the model during nuclei counting to resemble an experimental resolution, ranging from 15 to 500 nm. The findings reveal that the instrument resolution significantly impacts the apparent prefactor and interfacial energy. Both apparent prefactor and interfacial energy decrease with a decrease in the instrument resolution. While deviation in the prefactor due to resolution is anticipated, those in the interfacial energy are unexpected. The approach described here allows one to correct apparent nucleation rates that depend on the instrument’s resolution to derive “intrinsic” CNT parameters for the prefactor and interfacial energy.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Galaxy cluster profiles: a Gaussian mixture model approach to halo miscentering

Measurements of the galaxy density and weak-lensing profiles of galaxy clusters typically rely on an assumed cluster center, which is taken to be the brightest cluster galaxy or other proxies for the true halo center defined as the minimum in the potential well. Departure of the assumed cluster center from the true halo center bias the resultant profile measurements, an effect known as miscentering bias. Currently, miscentering is typically modeled in stacked profiles of clusters with a two parameter model. We use an alternate approach in which the profiles of individual clusters are used with the corresponding likelihood computed using a Gaussian mixture model. We test the approach using halos and the corresponding subhalo profiles from the IllustrisTNG hydrodynamic simulations. We obtain significantly improved estimates of the miscentering parameters for both 3D and projected 2D profiles relevant for imaging surveys. We discuss applications to upcoming cosmological surveys. Our Python package for the Gaussian mixture model is publicly available at https://github.com/KyleMiller1/Halo-Miscentering-Mixture-Model.

Bayesian reasoning↗
DOE OSTI2025

First astrometric constraints on parity-violation in the gravitational wave background

Astrometry, the precise measurement of stellar positions and velocities, offers a promising approach to probing the low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB). Notably, astrometric vector sky maps are sensitive to parity-violating SGWB signals, which cannot be distinguished using pulsar timing array observations in an isotropic SGWB. We present the first astrometric constraints on parity-violating SGWB using quasar catalogs from Gaia DR3 and VLBA data. By analyzing the EB correlation in the two-point correlation function of the proper motions of the quasars, we find 2σ constraints on the parity-violating SGWB amplitude h 70 2 Ω V = -0.020 ± 0.025 from Gaia DR3 and h 70 2 Ω V = -0.004 ± 0.010 from VLBA. These constraints are valid in the frequency range 4.2 × 10 -18 Hz < f < 1.1 × 10 -8 Hz. Although not currently a tight constraint on theoretical models, this first attempt lays the groundwork for future investigations using more precise astrometric data.

Gravitational waves in GR and beyond: theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying bias due to non-Gaussian foregrounds in an optimal reconstruction of CMB lensing and temperature power spectra

We estimate the magnitude of the bias due to non-Gaussian extragalactic foregrounds on the optimal reconstruction of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential and temperature power spectra. The reconstruction is performed using a Bayesian inference method known as the marginal unbiased score expansion (MUSE). We apply MUSE to a minimum variance combination of multifrequency maps drawn from the Agora publicly available simulations of the lensed CMB and correlated extragalactic foreground emission. Taking noise levels appropriate to the SPT-3G D1 release, we find non-Gaussian foregrounds may bias the MUSE reconstruction of the lensing potential amplitude at the level of (0.7 ± 0.3)σ when using modes up to ℓ max = 3500. We do not detect a statistically significant bias, finding a value of (-0.4 ± 0.3)σ, when restricted to lower angular multipoles, ℓ max = 3000. This work is a first step toward understanding the impact of extragalactic foregrounds on optimal reconstructions of CMB temperature and lensing potential power spectra.

Statistical sampling techniques↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field-level reconstruction from foreground-contaminated 21-cm maps

Current and upcoming 21-cm experiments will soon be able to map 21-cm spatial fluctuations in three dimensions for a wide range of redshifts. However, bright foreground contamination and the nature of radio interferometry create significant challenges, making it difficult to access rich cosmological information from the Fourier modes that lie within the “foreground wedge”. Here, in this work, we introduce two approaches aiming to reconstruct the full 21-cm density field, including the missing modes in the wedge: (a) a field-level inference under an effective field theory (EFT) framework; (b) a diffusion-based deep generative model trained on simulations. Under the EFT framework, we implement a fully differentiable forward model that maps the initial conditions of matter fluctuations to the observed, foreground-filtered 21-cm maps. This enables a gradient-based sampler to simultaneously sample the initial conditions and bias parameters, allowing a physically motivated mode reconstruction. Alternatively, we apply a variational diffusion model to perform 21-cm density reconstruction at the map level. Our model is trained on semi-numerical simulations over a wide range of astrophysical parameters. Our results from both approaches should provide improved cosmological constraints from the field level and also enable cross-correlation between experiments that have little or no overlapping modes.

cosmological perturbation theory↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deviations from the Porter-Thomas Distribution due to Nonstatistical 𝛾 Decay below the 150 Nd Neutron Separation Threshold

We introduce a new method for the study of fluctuations of partial transition widths based on nuclear resonance fluorescence experiments with quasimonochromatic linearly polarized photon beams below particle separation thresholds. It is based on the average branching of decays of 𝐽=1 states of an even-even nucleus to the 2$^{+}_{1}$ state in comparison to the ground state. Between 5 and 7 MeV, a constant average branching ratio for 𝛾 decays from 1 − states of 0.490(16) is observed for the nuclide 150 Nd. Assuming 𝜒 2 -distributed partial transition widths, this average branching ratio is related to a degree of freedom of 𝜈 = 1.93⁢(12), rejecting the validity of the Porter-Thomas distribution, requiring 𝜈 = 1. The observed deviation can be explained by nonstatistical effects in the 𝛾-decay behavior with contributions in the range of 9.4(10)% up to 94(10)%.

150 ≤ A ≤ 189↗