Mathematical problems of modeling stochastic nonlinear dynamic systems
Systems analysis logic applied to mathematical modeling of dynamic nonlinear stochastic processes
Mortensen, R. E.↗
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Multi-element flow-driven spectral chaos (ME-FSC) method for uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems
The flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) is a recently developed method for tracking and quantifying uncertainties in the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems using the spectral approach. The method uses a novel concept called enriched stochastic flow maps as a means to construct an evolving finite-dimensional random function space that is both accurate and computationally efficient in time. In this paper, we present a multi-element version of the FSC method (the ME-FSC method for short) to tackle (mainly) those dynamical systems that are inherently discontinuous over the probability space. In ME-FSC, the random domain is partitioned into several elements, and then the problem is solved separately on each random element using the FSC method. Subsequently, results are aggregated to compute the probability moments of interest using the law of total probability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the ME-FSC method in dealing with discontinuities and long-time integration of stochastic dynamical systems, four representative numerical examples are presented in this paper, including the Van-der-Pol oscillator problem and the Kraichnan-Orszag three-mode problem. Results show that the ME-FSC method is capable of solving problems that have strong nonlinear dependencies over the probability space, both reliably and at low computational cost.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Adaptive control of stochastic linear systems with unknown parameters
The problem of optimal control of linear discrete-time stochastic dynamical system with unknown and, possibly, stochastically varying parameters is considered on the basis of noisy measurements. It is desired to minimize the expected value of a quadratic cost functional. Since the simultaneous estimation of the state and plant parameters is a nonlinear filtering problem, the extended Kalman filter algorithm is used. Several qualitative and asymptotic properties of the open loop feedback optimal control and the enforced separation scheme are discussed. Simulation results via Monte Carlo method show that, in terms of the performance measure, for stable systems the open loop feedback optimal control system is slightly better than the enforced separation scheme, while for unstable systems the latter scheme is far better.
Ku, R. T.↗
A Kinetic Monte Carlo Approach for Simulating Cascading Transmission Line Failure
In this work, cascading transmission line failures are studied through a dynamical model of the power system operating under fixed conditions. The power grid is modeled as a stochastic dynamical system where first-principles electromechanical dynamics are excited by small Gaussian disturbances in demand and generation around a specified operating point. In this context, a single line failure is interpreted in a large deviation context as a first escape event across a surface in phase space defined by line security constraints. The resulting system of stochastic differential equations admits a transverse decomposition of the drift, which leads to considerable simplification in evaluating the quasipotential (rate function) and, consequently, computation of exit rates. Tractable expressions for the rate of transmission line failure in a restricted network are derived from large deviation theory arguments and validated against numerical simulations. Extensions to realistic settings are considered, and individual line failure models are aggregated into a Markov model of cascading failure inspired by chemical kinetics. Cascades are generated by traversing a graph composed of weighted edges representing transitions to degraded network topologies. Numerical results indicate that the Markov model can produce cascades with qualitative power-law properties similar to those observed in empirical cascades.
Kinetic Monte Carlo, rare events, Cascading Failur↗
Operation Optimization using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework
In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Approximate properties of the response of nonlinear dynamic systems to stochastic inputs
Indirect method considers effect of nonlinearity and obtains approximate probability densities of certain characteristics, from these densities various statistical properties are calculated. Direct method determines response moments directly. Neither method is restricted by system motion with regard to whether or not it is stationary.
Zirkle, L. D.↗
A survey of design methods for failure detection in dynamic systems
A number of methods for detecting abrupt changes (such as failures) in stochastic dynamical systems are surveyed. The class of linear systems is concentrated on but the basic concepts, if not the detailed analyses, carry over to other classes of systems. The methods surveyed range from the design of specific failure-sensitive filters, to the use of statistical tests on filter innovations, to the development of jump process formulations. Tradeoffs in complexity versus performance are discussed.
Willsky, A. S.↗
A survey of design methods for failure detection in dynamic systems
A number of methods for the detection of abrupt changes (such as failures) in stochastic dynamical systems were surveyed. The class of linear systems were emphasized, but the basic concepts, if not the detailed analyses, carry over to other classes of systems. The methods surveyed range from the design of specific failure-sensitive filters, to the use of statistical tests on filter innovations, to the development of jump process formulations. Tradeoffs in complexity versus performance are discussed.
Willsky, A. S.↗
Kernel learning backward SDE filter for data assimilation
In this paper, we develop a kernel learning backward SDE filter method to estimate the state of a stochastic dynamical system based on its partial noisy observations. A system of forward backward stochastic differential equations is used to propagate the state of the target dynamical model, and Bayesian inference is applied to incorporate the observational information. Further, to characterize the dynamical model in the entire state space, we introduce a kernel learning method to learn a continuous global approximation for the conditional probability density function of the target state by using discrete approximated density values as training data. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the kernel learning backward SDE is highly effective.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Methods of sequential estimation for determining initial data in numerical weather prediction
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is an initial-value problem for a system of nonlinear differential equations, in which initial values are known incompletely and inaccurately. Observational data available at the initial time must therefore be supplemented by data available prior to the initial time, a problem known as meteorological data assimilation. A further complication in NWP is that solutions of the governing equations evolve on two different time scales, a fast one and a slow one, whereas fast scale motions in the atmosphere are not reliably observed. This leads to the so called initialization problem: initial values must be constrained to result in a slowly evolving forecast. The theory of estimation of stochastic dynamic systems provides a natural approach to such problems. For linear stochastic dynamic models, the Kalman-Bucy (KB) sequential filter is the optimal data assimilation method, for linear models, the optimal combined data assimilation-initialization method is a modified version of the KB filter.
Cohn, S. E.↗
A nonlinear perturbation theory for estimation and control of time discrete stochastic systems
Nonlinear perturbation theory for optimal estimation and control of time-discrete, stochastic, dynamic systems when measurement data is noisy
Sorenson, H. W.↗
On stochastic control and optimal measurement strategies
The control of stochastic dynamic systems is studied with particular emphasis on those which influence the quality or nature of the measurements which are made to effect control. Four main areas are discussed: (1) the meaning of stochastic optimality and the means by which dynamic programming may be applied to solve a combined control/measurement problem; (2) a technique by which it is possible to apply deterministic methods, specifically the minimum principle, to the study of stochastic problems; (3) the methods described are applied to linear systems with Gaussian disturbances to study the structure of the resulting control system; and (4) several applications are considered.
Kramer, L. C.↗
Reduced-order Kalman filtering with incomplete observability
Kalman filtering is considered with reference to linear stochastic dynamic systems without complete observability. It is shown that the canonical decomposition theorem can be extended to the stochastic case and the matrix Riccati equation of the Kalman filter is order-reducible if some states are not observable. The inclusion of unobservable states in Kalman filtering makes the unobservable states 'asymptotically' observable in the filter if these unobservable states are dynamically connected to observable states and asymptotically stable. The reduced-order Kalman filter saves computation time when compared to the conventional Kalman filter.
Yonezawa, K.↗
Effective Lagrangian for Nambu-Goldstone modes in nonequilibrium open systems
Not Available
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Measurement and feedback-driven adaptive dynamics in the classical and quantum kicked top
In classical dynamical systems, stochastic feedback can stabilize otherwise unstable periodic orbits, giving rise to distinct controlled and uncontrolled phases as the rate of control application is varied. In this work, we apply these control protocols in classical, semiclassical, and quantum regimes to the kicked top, a paradigmatic model of quantum chaos. The quantum kicked top, modeled as the dynamics of a spin-S object, naturally interpolates between these regimes with the spin size S acting as an effective Planck constant. We show that the dynamics of the kicked top in classical, semiclassical, and fully quantum limits can all be controlled using stochastic feedback protocols. Comparing the full quantum dynamics to a truncated Wigner approximation that captures quantum noise but neglects interference beyond the Ehrenfest time, we find that low-moment observables are largely accounted for semiclassically, while the remaining discrepancy in higher moments is consistent with contributions from interference and possibly nonlinearities in rare trajectories that explore the compact phase space. We also find rapid purification in the numerics studied for all rates of control considered, suggesting that control quenches the top's ability to encode a qubit of quantum information even in the uncontrolled phase.
Prasad, Mahaveer [Tata Inst.; Singapore U. Tech. D↗
On the determination of optimal costly measurement strategies for linear stochastic systems.
This paper presents the formulation of a class of optimization problems dealing with selecting, at each instant of time, one measurement provided by one out of many sensors. Each measurement has an associated measurement cost. The basic problem is then to select an optimal measurement policy, during a specified observation time interval, so that a weighted combination of prediction accuracy and accumulated observation cost is optimized. The current analysis is limited to the class of linear stochastic dynamic systems and measurement subsystems. The problem of selecting the optimal measurement strategy can be transformed into a deterministic optimal control problem. It is shown that the optimal measurement policy and the associated matched Kalman-type filter can be precomputed.
Athans, M.↗
Operation Optimization Using Reinforcement Learning with Integrated Artificial Reasoning Framework
In large and complex systems, operational decision-making requires a systematic analysis with a vast amount of data from both process parameters and component status monitoring. In this paper, we present an integrated artificial reasoning approach for system state transition models that can help operational decision-making with explainable and traceable reasoning. The integrated artificial reasoning framework is a physics-based approach of defining the system structure in a Bayesian network, so we leveraged it in a Markov decision process (MDP) for finding optimal operational solutions. In our proposed framework, the MDP is implemented on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), which represents causalities in a system. The multilevel flow modeling was utilized in order to extract these causalities in a more efficient and objective manner. Since multilevel flow modeling is based on the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws, the target system is decomposed into several mass, energy, and information structures, which serve as the basis for a DBN. The MDP consists of the processes of finding a solution for the Bellman equation, which can be derived from the conditional probability equations of the constructed DBN. System operators can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from the component degradation process or random failures. We analyzed a simplified example system to illustrate finding an optimal operational policy with this approach.
Kim, Junyung↗
Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory
This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.
Markov decision process↗