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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1987

Criteria of interplanetary parameters causing intense magnetic storms (Dst less than -100nT)

Ten intense storms occurred during the 500 days of August 16, 1978 to December 28, 1979. From the analysis of ISEE-3 field and plasma data, it is found that the interplanetary cause of these storms are long-duration, large and negative IMF B sub Z events, associated with interplanetary duskward-electric fields greater than 5 mV/m. Because a one-to-one relationship was found between these interplanetary events and intense storms, it is suggested that these criteria can, in the future, be used as predictors of intense storms by an interplanetary monitor such as ISEE-3. These B sub Z events are found to occur in association with large amplitudes of the IMF magnitude within two days after the onset of either high-speed solar wind streams or of solar wind density enhancement events, giving important clues to their interplanetary origin. Some obvious possibilities will be discussed. The close proximity of B sub Z events and magnetic storms to the onset of high speed streams or density enhancement events is in sharp contrast to interplanetary Alfven waves and HILDCAA events previously reported, and thus the two interplanetary features corresponding geomagnetic responses can be thought of as being complementary in nature. An examination of opposite polarity B sub Z events with the same criteria show that their occurrence is similar both in number as well as in their relationship to interplanetary disturbances, and that they lead to low levels of geomagnetic activity.

Gonzalez, Walter D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

An Estimate of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity for 2008

The statistics of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the interval 1945-2007 are examined and estimates are given for the frequencies of occurrence of the number of tropical cyclones, number of hurricanes, number of major hurricanes, number of category 4/5 hurricanes, and number of U.S. land-falling hurricanes for the 2008 hurricane season. Also examined are the variations of peak wind speed, average peak wind speed per storm, lowest pressure, average lowest pressure per storm, recurrence rate and duration of extreme events (El Nino and La Nina), the variation of 10-yr moving averages of parametric first differences, and the association of decadal averages of frequencies of occurrence of North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones against decadal averages of Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, annual mean temperature (found to be extremely important for number of tropical cyclones and number of hurricanes). Because the 2008 hurricane season seems destined to be one that is non-El Nino-related and is a post-1995 season, estimates of the frequencies of occurrence for the various subsets of storms should be above long-term averages.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Tropical Cyclone Outer Size Increases in the Western North Atlantic

The outer size of a tropical cyclone (TC) plays a pivotal role in its impact through a modulation of wind duration, rainfall extent and storm surge. While global and basin scale trends in TC size have been examined previously, whether there have been regional changes over time remains unclear. Here, using a suite of observations and reanalyses, we detect an increasing TC outer size over the western North Atlantic during 1979–2022. Over the western subtropical North Atlantic where the largest changes are found, the area-averaged increase in the radius of 17 ms -1 winds is about 7.5% over this period. Analysis of the large-scale environment reveals that the air-sea thermodynamic state has become more favorable for storm intensification, and thereby expansion, over that region. Further, numerical model simulations link changes in the environment with those in storm size, and suggest a combination of natural variability and external forcing in driving them.

Balaguru, Karthik [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
NASA NTRS2007

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Green, Lawrence L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Investigation of Dust Storms Observed with the Mars Color Imager

Daily global imaging by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) continues the record of the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and has allowed creation of a long-duration record of Martian dust storms. We observe dust storms over the first two Mars years of the MARCI record, including tracking individual storms over multiple sols, as well as tracking the growth and recession of the seasonal polar caps. Using the combined 6 Mars year record of textured dust storms (storms with visible textures on the observed dust cloud tops), we study the relationship between textured dust storm activity and meteorology (as simulated by the MarsWRF general circulation model) and surface properties. We find that textured dust storms preferentially occur in places and seasons with above average surface wind stress. Textured dust storm occurrence also has a modest linear anti-correlation with surface albedo (0.43) and topography (0.40). Lastly, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the distribution of occurrence of textured dust storms and find that over 50 of the variance in textured dust storm activity can be explained by two EOF modes. We associate the first EOF mode with cap-edge storms just before Ls = 180deg and the second EOF mode with flushing dust storms that occur from Ls = 180-210deg and again near Ls = 320deg.

Guzewich, Scott D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Stormtime transport of ring current and radiation belt ions

This is an investigation of stormtime particle transport that leads to formation of the ring current. Our method is to trace the guiding-center motion of representative ions (having selected first adiabatic invariants mu) in response to model substorm-associated impulses in the convection electric field. We compare our simulation results qualitatively with existing analytically tractable idealizations of particle transport (direct convective access and radial diffusion) in order to assess the limits of validity of these approximations. For mu approximately less than 10 MeV/G (E approximately less than 10 keV at L equivalent to 3) the ion drift period on the final (ring-current) drift shell of interest (L equivalent to 3) exceeds the duration of the main phase of our model storm, and we find that the transport of ions to this drift shell is appropriately idealized as direct convective access, typically from open drift paths. Ion transport to a final closed drift path from an open (plasma-sheet) drift trajectory is possible for those portions of that drift path that lie outside the mean stormtime separatrix between closed and open drift trajectories, For mu approximately 10-25 MeV/G (110 keV approximately less than E approximately less than 280 keV at L equivalent to 3) the drift period at L equivalent to 3 is comparable to the postulated 3-hr duration of the storm, and the mode of transport is transitional between direct convective access and transport that resembles radial diffusion. (This particle population is transitional between the ring current and radiation belt). For mu approximately greater than 25 MeV/G (radiation-belt ions having E approximately greater than 280 keV at L equivalent to 3) the ion drift period is considerably shorter than the main phase of a typical storm, and ions gain access to the ring-current region essentially via radial diffusion. By computing the mean and mean-square cumulative changes in 1/L among (in this case) 12 representative ions equally spaced in drift time around the steady-state drift shell of interest (L equivalent to 3), we have estimated (from both our forward and our time-reversed simulations) the time-integrated radial-diffusion coefficients D(sup sim)(sub LL) for particles having selected values of mu approximately greater than 15 MeV/G. The results agree surprisingly well with the predictions (D(sup ql)(sub LL)) of quasilinear radial diffusion theory, despite the rather brief duration (approximately 3 hrs) of our model storm and despite the extreme variability (with frequency) of the spectral-density function that characterizes the applied electric field during our model storm. As expected, the values of D(sup sim)(sub LL) deduced (respectively) from our forward and time-reversed simulations agree even better with each other and with D(sup sim)(sub LL) when the impulse amplitudes which characterize the individual substorms of our model storm are systematically reduced.

Chen, Margaret W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

What is the Relationship between the Solar Wind and Storms/Substorms?

The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried past the Earth by the solar wind has long been known to be the principal quantity that controls geomagnetic storms and substorms. Intervals of strong southward IMF with durations of at least a significant fraction of a day produce storms, while more typical, shorter intervals of less-intense southward fields produce substorms. The strong, long-duration southward fields are generally associated with coronal mass ejections and magnetic clouds or else they are produced by interplanetary dynamics initiated by fast solar wind flows that compress preexisting southward fields. Smaller, short-duration southward fields that occur on most days are related to long period waves, turbulence, or random variations in the IMF. Southward IMF enhances dayside reconnection between the IMF and the Earth's dipole with the reconnected field lines supplementing open field lines of the geomagnetic tail and producing an expanded polar cap and increased tail energy. Although the frequent storage of solar wind energy and its release during substorms is the most common mode of solar wind/magnetosphere interaction, under certain circumstances, steady southward IMF seems to produce intervals of relatively steady magnetosphere convection without substorms. During these latter times, the inner magnetosphere remains in a stressed tail-like state while the more distant magnetotail has larger northward field and more dipolar-like field lines. Recent evidence suggests that enhanced magnetosphere particle densities associated with enhanced solar wind densities allow more particles to be accelerated for the ring current, thus creating larger storms.

Fairfield, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Stormtime transport of ring current and radiation belt ions

A dynamical guiding-center simulation model is used to study the stormtime ion transport which leads to the formation of the ring current and diffusion in the radiation belts. Representative ions guiding-center motion in response to model storm-associated impulses in the convection electric field is traced for a range of ion mu values. The present numerical results are compared with previously formulated limiting idealization of particle transport in order to assess the limits of validity of these approximations. For ions having drift periods that exceed the duration of the main phase of the storm, their inward transport to form the stormtime ring current is appropriately described as direct convective access. For ions having drift periods comparable to the duration of the main phase of the storm, there is a transition between direct convective access and transport that resembles radial diffusion. Lower-energy ring-current ions at L of about 3 are freshly injected there from open adiabatic trajectories, whereas the higher-energy ring-current population consists of a mixture of freshly injected and previously trapped ions.

Chen, Margaret W.↗
NASA NTRS1992

The onset and growth of the 1990 equatorial disturbance on Saturn

Observational data are presented which are consistent with the generation of the Saturn equatorial surface brightenings observed in September, 1990, by a single convective disturbance which created constructively and destructively interfering wave patterns. The initial development, size, duration, and appearance of this storm are similar to the equatorial storms of 1876 and 1933. Attention is given to the motions of the initial convective disturbance and its expansion and mature phases.

Beebe, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS2013

On the Current Trend of Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Lengthening of the Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Atlantic Basin

In this TP, the trend in North Atlantic basin TC activity, especially as related to the determination of the length of season (LOS) and its possible association with warming surface-air and sea-surface temperature, is revisited. In particular, examined are: (1) the trend in TC activity for the yearly intervals 1945-1965, 1966-1994, and 1995-2012 for TCs having duration NSD greater or equal to 0.25 day, less than 2 days, greater than or equal to 2 days, greater than or equal to 4 days, and greater than or equal to 8 days; (2) the latitudinal and longitudinal genesis locations of the short-lived TC (defined herein as those TCs having duration NSD less than 2 days) for the three yearly intervals; (3) the first storm day (FSD), last storm day (LSD), and LOS based on TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (4) the relationship between FSD, LSD, and LOS for TCs having duration NSD greater than or equal to 0.25 day and NSD greater than or equal to 2 days; (5) the surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the interval 1945-2012; (6) the relationship of FSD, LSD, and LOS against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; (7) the relationship of TC activity against surface-air and sea-surface temperature, wind, and the NAO; and (8) the relationship of TC activity against FSD and LOS. This TP represents an update to an earlier study by Wilson concerning the length of the yearly hurricane season.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2017

NASA Experience with Large and Small UAS for Atmospheric Science

NASA's unmanned aerial systems (UAS) have been utilized in many science missions, going all the way back to 1993. Some of these missions have targeted imagery (fire, vegetation) and surface measurements, but many have been applied to atmospheric research, both physical (dynamics, weather, etc.) and chemical (e.g.,composition). NASA's largest UAS, the Global Hawk, has been used to study atmospheric composition at the tropical tropopause in the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) mission, where the benefit of the UAS was long range and especially duration of up to 24 hours. Two Global Hawks were used in the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinal (HS3) mission to observe hurricane development. Again, long duration at altitude was the significant feature of the UAS. At the smallest scale, NASA has flown DragonEye UAS to measure volcanic gas emissions in both Costa Rica and Hawaii. The small DragonEye could sample gases in hazardous locations where manned aircraft could not fly. At mid-size, the NASA SIERRA UAS has flown imaging payloads and chemical remote sensing instruments in local and international settings. Theseexperiences provide direction for best use of UAS in atmospheric science, which will be presented.

Schoenung, Susan↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida

The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1 mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5 mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change’s impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm’s record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (T avg ) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida’s magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using T avg . Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Mossel, Carolien↗
NASA NTRS2007

Evaluation of the Potential of NASA Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis in Global Landslide Hazard Assessment

Landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. In the U.S. alone landslides occur in every state, causing an estimated $2 billion in damage and 25- 50 deaths each year. Annual average loss of life from landslide hazards in Japan is 170. The situation is much worse in developing countries and remote mountainous regions due to lack of financial resources and inadequate disaster management ability. Recently, a landslide buried an entire village on the Philippines Island of Leyte on Feb 17,2006, with at least 1800 reported deaths and only 3 houses left standing of the original 300. Intense storms with high-intensity , long-duration rainfall have great potential to trigger rapidly moving landslides, resulting in casualties and property damage across the world. In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed datasets, it has become possible to conduct global-scale landslide hazard assessment. This paper evaluates the potential of the real-time NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) system to advance our understanding of and predictive ability for rainfall-triggered landslides. Early results show that the landslide occurrences are closely associated with the spatial patterns and temporal distribution of rainfall characteristics. Particularly, the number of landslide occurrences and the relative importance of rainfall in triggering landslides rely on the influence of rainfall attributes [e.g. rainfall climatology, antecedent rainfall accumulation, and intensity-duration of rainstorms). TMPA precipitation data are available in both real-time and post-real-time versions, which are useful to assess the location and timing of rainfall-triggered landslide hazards by monitoring landslide-prone areas while receiving heavy rainfall. For the purpose of identifying rainfall-triggered landslides, an empirical global rainfall intensity-duration threshold is developed by examining a number of landslide occurrences and their corresponding TMPA precipitation characteristics across the world. These early results , in combination with TRMM real-time precipitation estimation system, may form a starting point for developing an operational early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides around the globe.

Hong, Yang↗
NASA NTRS2010

The 2011 Draconid Shower Risk to Earth-Orbiting Satellites

Current meteor shower forecast models project a strong Draconid outburst, possibly a storm, on October 8, 2011, with a duration of approximately 7 hours and peaking between 19 and 21 hours UT. Predicted rates span an order of magnitude, with maximum Zenithal Hourly Rates (ZHRs) ranging from a few tens to several hundred. Calibration of the NASA MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model 1 to radar and optical observations of past apparitions, particularly the 2005 Draconid outburst 2, suggest that the maximum rate will be several hundreds per hour. Given the high spatial density of the Draconid stream, this implies a maximum meteoroid flux of 5-10 Draconids km(exp -2)/hr (to a limiting diameter of 1 mm), some 25-50 times greater than the normal sporadic flux of 0.2 km(exp -2)/ hr for particles of this size. Total outburst fluence, assuming a maximum ZHR of 750, is 15.5 Draconids km(exp -2), resulting in an overall 10x risk increase to spacecraft surfaces vulnerable to hypervelocity impacts by 1 mm particles. It is now established that a significant fraction of spacecraft anomalies produced by shower meteoroids (e.g. OLYMPUS and LandSat 5) are caused by electrostatic discharges produced by meteoroid impacts. In these cases, the charge generated is roughly proportional to v(exp 3.5(4)), giving a Draconid moving at 20 km/s approximately 1/80th the electrical damage potential of a Leonid of the same mass. In other words, a Draconid outburst with a maximum ZHR of 800 presents the same electrical risk as a normal Leonid shower with a ZHR of 15, assuming the mass indices and shower durations are the same. This is supported by the fact that no spacecraft electrical anomalies were reported during the strong Draconid outbursts of 1985 and 1998. However, the lack of past anomalies should not be taken as carte blanche for satellite operators to ignore the 2011 Draconids, as the upcoming outburst will constitute a period of enhanced risk for vehicles in near-Earth space. Each spacecrft is unique, and components have differing damage thresholds; programs are encouraged to conduct analyses to determine whether or not mitigation strategies are necessary for their vehicles.

Cooke, William J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

MESSENGER Observations of Extreme Loading and Unloading of Mercury's Magnetic Tail

During MESSENGER's third flyby of Mercury, the magnetic field in the planet's magnetotail increased by factors of 2 to 3.5 over intervals of 2 to 3 min. Magnetospheric substorms at Earth are powered by similar tail loading, but the amplitude is approx.10 times less and typical durations are approx.1 hour. The extreme tail loading observed at Mercury implies that the relative intensity of sub storms must be much larger than at Earth. The correspondence between the duration of tail field enhancements and the characteristic time for the Dungey cycle, which describes plasma circulation through Mercury's magnetosphere. suggests that such circulation determines substorm timescale. A key aspect of tail unloading during terrestrial substorms is the acceleration of energetic charged particles, but no acceleration signatures were seen during the MESSENGER flyby.

Slavin, James A.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Pressure Deficit in Gale Crater and a Larger Northern Polar Cap After the MY34 Global Dust Storm

We describe the model-independent analysis technique of Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) pressure and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) data in de la Torre Juárez et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169945479.90436599/v1) that compared multiple years of surface pressures on Gale before, during, and after the Global Dust Storm of Mars Year 34. The analysis found (a) representative pressure scale heights over Gale; (b) that the storm was followed by a pressure deficit at Gale; (c) the following C storms did not eliminate the deficit; (d) changes in the duration of the polar caps condensation seasons, with an early start of the North Polar (NP) ice cap growing season the year before the Great Dust Storm (GDS) and a late signature of the end of the expansion season thereafter, changes consistent with a larger growth phase of the NP cap; (e) MCS observed a larger than usual NP cap; and (f) cold temperature anomalies over the NP and warm over the Southern Pole after the storm. We also show that the analysis of observed MSL pressure data alone filters out effects on the pressure signal that are attributable to dynamical and orographic processes in a recent model analysis that makes similar interpretations as our 2019 study. One additional Mars year of observations is included to eliminate early concerns about sensor drifts. Noting that a similar NP anomaly was observed with MCS data after the last early GDS in MY25, and not the later GDS of MY27, the results suggest a possible unique effect of early GDSs.

Manuel de la Torre Juárez↗
NASA NTRS1987

Criteria of interplanetary parameters causing intense magnetic storms (Dst of less than -100 nT)

An analysis of ISEE-3 field and plasma data shows that 10 intense magnetic storms that occurred in 1979 were caused by long-duration, large-amplitude (13-30 nT) and negative (less than -10 nT) IMF Bz events associated with interplanetary duskward-electric fields of greater than 5 mV/m. The results suggest that these criteria may be used as predictors of intense storms. A study of opposite polarity (northward) Bz events with the same criteria shows that their occurrence is similar both in number and in their relationship to interplanetary disturbances. The amplitudes of the storms were not found to vary with shock strengths.

Gonzalez, Walter D.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Electric Field Measurements During the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Program

During the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) field program, a system of 6 electric field mills was flown on one of NASA's Global Hawk aircraft. We placed several mills on the aircraft to enable us to measure the vector electric field. We created a distributed, ethernet-connected system so that each sensor has its own embedded Linux system, complete with web server. This makes our current generation system fully "sensor web enabled." The Global Hawk has several unique qualities, but relevant to quality storm electric field measurements are high altitude (20 km) and long duration (20-30 hours) flights. There are several aircraft participating in the GRIP program, and coordinated measurements are happening. Lightning and electric field measurements will be used to study the relationships between lightning and other storm characteristics. It has been long understood that lightning can be used as a marker for strong convective activity. Past research and field programs suggest that lightning flash rate may serve as an indicator and precursor for rapid intensification change in tropical cyclones and hurricanes. We have the opportunity to sample hurricanes for many hours at a time and observe intensification (or de-intensification) periods. The electrical properties of hurricanes during such periods are not well known. American

Bateman, Monte G.↗