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At least 37 records · Page 2

Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions

Most extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to assess 40-year trends in the rain rates of these storms, which have remained unknown. We show that rain rates increased in the rainiest quadrant of monsoon depressions, southwest of the vortex center; precipitation decreased in eastern quadrants, yielding no clear trend in precipitation averaged over the entire storm diameter. In an atmospheric reanalysis, ascent increased in the region of amplifying precipitation, but we could not detect trends in the intensity of rotational winds around the storm center. These storm changes occurred in a background environment where humidity increased rapidly over land while warming was more muted. Monsoon lows, which we show produce less precipitation than depressions, exhibit weaker trends that are less statistically robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Motion detection in astronomical and ice floe images

Two approaches are presented for establishing correspondence between small areas in pairs of successive images for motion detection. The first one, based on local correlation, is used on a pair of successive Voyager images of the Jupiter which differ mainly in locally variable translations. This algorithm is implemented on a sequential machine (VAX 780) as well as the Massively Parallel Processor (MPP). In the case of the sequential algorithm, the pixel correspondence or match is computed on a sparse grid of points using nonoverlapping windows (typically 11 x 11) by local correlations over a predetermined search area. The displacement of the corresponding pixels in the two images is called the disparities to cubic surfaces. The disparities at points where the error between the computed values and the surface values exceeds a particular threshold are replaced by the surface values. A bilinear interpolation is then used to estimate disparities at all other pixels between the grid points. When this algorithm was applied at the red spot in the Jupiter image, the rotating velocity field of the storm was determined. The second method of motion detection is applicable to pairs of images in which corresponding areas can experience considerable translation as well as rotation.

Manohar, M.↗

The relationship of storm severity to directionally resolved radio emissions

The objective was to provide continuous observation of atmospheric electrical activity occurring in association with tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The observations were to include the location of all detected intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning activity occurring in the storm. To provide synoptic scale coverage, a phase linear interferometer high frequency direction finder (HFDF) system was constructed and developed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This was used in concert with the existing HFDF interferometer at the southwest research institute to provide lightning location data through triangulation. Atmospheric electrical events were synchronized through the use of satellite receivers at each site. The intent of the data analysis was to correlate the location of electrical centers of activity with radar and satellite imagry to identify areas of intense convection within the tropical storm system. Analysis of the hurricane Alicia data indicate a center of atmospheric electrical activity associated with the vortex of the storm. The center appears to rotate from the Northern side of the vortex to the Southern side during the period of observation. An analysis of the atmospheric electrical burst rates associated with hurrican Alicia indicates that the electrical activity appears to maximize at the time of greatest storm intensity, i.e., maximum winds and lowest central pressure.

Johnson, R. L.↗

Quasar Host Galaxies/Neptune Rotation/Galaxy Building Blocks/Hubble Deep Field/Saturn Storm

Computerized animations simulate a quasar erupting in the core of a normal spiral galaxy, the collision of two interacting galaxies, and the evolution of the universe. Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images show six quasars' host galaxies (including spirals, ellipticals, and colliding galaxies) and six clumps of galaxies approximately 11 billion light years away. A false color time lapse movie of Neptune displays the planet's 16-hour rotation, and the evolution of a storm on Saturn is seen though a video of the planet's rotation. A zoom sequence starts with a ground-based image of the constellation Ursa major and ends with the Hubble Deep Field through progressively narrower and deeper views.

Source record↗

Supercell Low-Level Mesocyclones: Origins of Inflow and Vorticity

Abstract The development and intensification of low-level mesocyclones in supercell thunderstorms have often been attributed, at least in part, to augmented streamwise vorticity generated baroclinically in the forward flank of supercells. However, the ambient streamwise vorticity of the environment (often quantified via storm-relative helicity), especially near the ground, is particularly skillful at discriminating between nontornadic and tornadic supercells. This study investigates whether the origins of the inflow air into supercell low-level mesocyclones, both horizontally and vertically, can help explain the dynamical role of environmental versus storm-generated vorticity in the development of low-level mesocyclone rotation. Simulations of supercells, initialized with wind profiles common to supercell environments observed in nature, show that the air bound for the low-level mesocyclone primarily originates from the ambient environment (rather than from along the forward flank) and from very close to the ground, often in the lowest 200–400 m of the atmosphere. Given that the near-ground environmental air comprises the bulk of the inflow into low-level mesocyclones, this likely explains the forecast skill of environmental streamwise vorticity in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere. The low-level mesocyclone does not appear to require much augmentation from the development of additional horizontal vorticity in the forward flank. Instead, the dominant contributor to vertical vorticity within the low-level mesocyclone is from the environmental horizontal vorticity. This study provides further context to the ongoing discussion regarding the development of rotation within supercell low-level mesocyclones. Significance Statement Supercell thunderstorms produce the majority of tornadoes, and a defining characteristic of supercells is their rotating updraft, known as the “mesocyclone.” When the mesocyclone is stronger at lower altitudes, the likelihood of tornadoes increases. The purpose of this study is to understand if the rotation of the mesocyclone in supercells is due to horizontal spin present in the ambient environment or whether additional horizontal spin generated by the storm itself primarily drives this rotation. Our results suggest that inflow air into supercells and low-level mesocyclone rotation are mainly due to the properties of the environmental inflow air, especially near the ground. This hopefully provides further context to how our community views the development of low-level mesocyclones in supercells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equatorial irregularity belt and its movement during a magnetic storm

Evidence for an equatorial irregularity belt and its movement during a magnetic storm has been obtained from Faraday rotation measurements at a chain of 140-MHz radio beacons receiving from the ATS-6 satellite. The stations covered a latitude region from the magnetic equator to the 45 deg N dip on the Indian subcontinent. An irregularity belt extending from the magnetic equator to about 27 deg N latitude was observed during the main phase of the magnetic storm of 10 January, 1976.

Vats, H. O.↗

Urbanization may enhance tornado potential: A single case report

Tornadoes pose a risk of catastrophic economic loss and casualty in the United States. Modification of land use by urbanization alters the meteorological conditions that may impact tornado formation and intensification processes. Here we explored the simulated impact of Kansas City urbanization on the tornado potential of a supercell storm. In this studied case, we found that urbanization might enhance tornado potential by a) strengthening the low-level streamwise vorticity in the storm inflow region, thus forming stronger rotating updrafts; and b) intensifying near-surface horizontal vorticity near the boundary of the forward-flank cold pool which increases the ingestion, tilting, and stretching of streamwise horizontal vorticity into vertical vorticity. The former results from the stronger east-to-west pressure perturbation gradient due to the faster, stronger outflow boundary, and the latter is mainly a result of stronger cold fronts and a better alignment of storm-relative inflow with the horizontal vorticity vector. We emphasize that our conclusions only represent one possibility of how urbanization would affect tornado potential, and a more systematic examination is needed to achieve a more general conclusion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earth-based observations of Faraday rotation in radio bursts from Jupiter

New observations have been made of Faraday rotation in decameter-wavelength radio bursts from the planet Jupiter. Data obtained during six Io-B storms clearly indicate that an appreciable fraction of the observed Faraday rotation occurs in the Jovian magnetosphere. All of the Faraday rotation observed during a single Io-A storm can be accounted for by earth's ionosphere. Measurements of the Faraday effect in Io-B emissions indicate that the source is in Jupiter's northern magnetic hemisphere. Observations of the Faraday effect in Io-C emissions are proposed to determine its location as well.

Phillips, J. A.↗

Decameter storm radiation. II

The height, size, directivity, and lifetime of decametric storm sources are investigated. The height of the continuum sources is determined from the rotation rate, and the gradient of electron density for the regions of storm origin is computed by assuming that the radiation originates at the plasma frequency. The mean angular size of the sources is found to be quite large (increasing with decreasing frequency), the storm continuum is strongly directive toward the disk center, and east-west asymmetry is observed at decameter wavelengths. Two distinct classes of type III bursts are observed during storms: 'off-fringe' (displaced in position from the continuum source) and 'on-fringe' (coinciding in position with the continuum). A model of the storm region is proposed in which the 'on-fringe' bursts originate in regions of diverging field lines above closed magnetic loops and the 'off-fringe' bursts are excited by energetic electron streams having access to open field lines at the base of the loops.

Gergely, T. E.↗

Disentangling the Influences of Storm-Relative Flow and Horizontal Streamwise Vorticity on Low-Level Mesocyclones in Supercells

Sufficient low-level storm-relative flow is a necessary ingredient for sustained supercell thunderstorms and is connected to supercell updraft width. Assuming a supercell exists, the role of low-level storm-relative flow in regulating supercells’ low-level mesocyclone intensity is less clear. One possibility considered in this article is that storm-relative flow controls mesocyclone and tornado width via its modulation of overall updraft extent. This hypothesis relies on a previously postulated positive correspondence between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width. An alternative hypothesis is that mesocyclone characteristics are primarily regulated by horizontal streamwise vorticity irrespective of storm-relative flow. A matrix of supercell simulations was analyzed to address the aforementioned hypotheses, wherein horizontal streamwise vorticity and storm-relative flow were independently varied. Among these simulations, mesocyclone width and intensity were strongly correlated with horizontal streamwise vorticity, and comparatively weakly correlated with storm-relative flow, supporting the second hypothesis. Accompanying theory and trajectory analysis offers the physical explanation that, when storm-relative flow is large and updrafts are wide, vertically tilted streamwise vorticity is projected over a wider area but with a lesser average magnitude than when these parameters are small. These factors partially offset one another, degrading the correspondence of storm-relative flow with updraft circulation and rotational velocity, which are the mesocyclone attributes most closely tied to tornadoes. In conclusion, these results refute the previously purported connections between updraft width, mesocyclone width, and tornado width, and emphasize horizontal streamwise vorticity as the primary control on low-level mesocyclones in sustained supercells.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Effect of Storm Direction on Flood Frequency Analysis

Abstract Storm direction modulates a hydrograph's magnitude and duration, thus having a potentially large effect on local flood risk. However, how changes in the preferential storm direction affect the probability distribution of peak flows remains unknown. We address this question with a novel Monte Carlo approach where stochastically transposed storms drive hydrologic simulations over medium and mesoscale watersheds in the Midwestern United States. Systematic rotations of these watersheds are used to emulate changes in the preferential storm direction. We found that the peak flow distribution impacts are scale‐dependent, with larger changes observed in the mesoscale watershed than in the medium‐scale watershed. We attribute this to the high diversity of storm patterns and the storms' scale relative to watershed size. This study highlights the potential of the proposed stochastic framework to address fundamental questions about hydrologic extremes when our ability to observe these events in nature is hindered by technical constraints and short time records.

Perez, G.↗

Improving our Understanding of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones through Knowledge of the Saharan Air Layer: Hope or Hype?

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet produces the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. Multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to characterize the SAL s properties and evolution in relation to developing hurricanes. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and rarely moves over their inner cores, so jet-induced vertical wind shear does not appear to be a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. Of the three proposed negative influences, dry air appears to be the key influence; however, the presence of dry SAL air is not a good indicator of whether a storm will weaken since many examples of intensifying storms surrounded by such dry air can be found. In addition, a global view of relative humidity shows moisture distributions in other ocean basins that are almost identical to the Atlantic. The dry zones correspond to regions of descending air on the eastern and equatorward sides of semi-permanent oceanic high pressure systems. Thus, the dry air over the Atlantic appears to be primarily a product of the large-scale flow, but with enhanced drying at low levels associated with the Sahara. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not a major negative influence on hurricanes. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Entrainment of Upper Level Dry Air into Hurricane Earl

Hurricane Earl developed from a tropical wave that moved into the Gulf of Mexico, which triggered abundant convection. On 1 Sept. 1998, the wave was upgraded directly to a tropical storm. Earl reached hurricane status the next morning. The system moved erratically as it interacted with an upper level short wave trough rotating around a long wave trough to the northeast. The storm made landfall near 0600 UTC on 3 September near Panama City, FL. During August and September 1998, NASA conducted the Third Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX-3). It focused on studying the intensity, track, and impacts at landfall of hurricanes. On the afternoon of 2 September 1998, the NASA ER2 high-altitude aircraft flying at 65,000 feet in tandem with the NASA DC-8 flying at 35,000 feet flew over and through, respectively, the eastern rainbands of Earl near the Florida Panhandle as the storm neared landfall in the region. Two approaches to studying Earl are undertaken here: first, an examination of the source and height of the dry air region using GOES-8 water vapor data and, second, a look into the impact of the dry air entrainment on the system using aircraft remote sensing data.

Guillory, Anthony R.↗

Mature thunderstorm cloud-top structure and dynamics - A three-dimensional numerical simulation study

The present investigation is concerned with results from an initial set of comparative experiments in a project which utilize a three-dimensional convective storm model. The modeling results presented are related to four comparative experiments, designated Cases A through D. One of two scientific questions considered involves the dynamical processes, either near the cloud top or well within the cloud interior, which contribute to organize cloud thermal patterns such as those revealed by IR satellite imagery for some storms having strong internal cloud-scale rotation. The second question is concerned with differences, in cloud-top height and temperature field characteristics, between thunderstorms with and without significant internal cloud-scale rotation. The four experiments A-D are compared with regard to both interior and cloud-top configurations in the context of the second question. A particular strong-shear experiment, Case B, is analyzed to address question one.

Schlesinger, R. E.↗

Reevaluating the Role of Saharan Air Layer in Atlantic Tropical Cyclogenesis and Evolution

The existence of the Saharan air layer (SAL), a layer of warm, dry, dusty air that frequently moves westward off of the Saharan desert of Africa and over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, has long been appreciated. As air moves over the desert, it is strongly heated from below, producing a very hot air mass at low levels. Because there is no moisture source over the Sahara, the rise in temperature causes a sharp drop in relative humidity, thus drying the air. In addition, the warm air produces a very strong jet of easterly flow in the middle troposphere called the African easterly jet that is thought to play a critical role in hurricane formation. In recent years, there has been an increased focus on the impact that the SAL has on the formation and evolution of hurricanes in the Atlantic. However, the nature of its impact remains unclear, with some researchers arguing that the SAL amplifies hurricane development and with others arguing that it inhibits it. The argument for positively influencing hurricane development is based upon the fact that the African easterly jet provides an energy source for the waves that eventually form hurricanes and that it leads to rising motion south of the jet that favors the development of deep thunderstorm clouds. The potential negative impacts of the SAL include 1) low-level vertical wind shear associated with the African easterly jet; 2) warm SAL air aloft, which increases thermodynamic stability and suppresses cloud development; and 3) dry air, which produces cold downdrafts in precipitating regions, thereby removing energy needed for storm development. As part of this recent focus on the SAL and hurricanes (which motivated a 2006 NASA field experiment), there has been little emphasis on the SAL s potential positive influences and almost complete emphasis on its possible negative influences, almost to the point of claims that the SAL is the major suppressing influence on hurricanes in the Atlantic. In this study, multiple NASA satellite data sets (TRMM, MODIS, CALIPSO, and AIRS/AMSU) and National Centers for Environmental Prediction global analyses are used to see if the proposed negative influences deserve all of the attention they have recently received. The results show that storms generally form on the southern side of the African jet, where favorable background rotation is high. The jet often helps to form the northern side of the storms and is typically stronger in storms that intensify than those that weaken, suggesting that jet-induced vertical wind shear is not a negative influence on developing storms. Warm SAL air is confined to regions north of the jet and generally does not impact the tropical cyclone precipitation south of the jet. A comparison of the environments of strongly strengthening storms and of weakening storms shows no differences in SAL structure, indicating that the SAL has little influence on whether storms weaken or intensify. The large-scale flow at upper levels above the SAL was found to be most important, with the environment of strengthening storms having very little vertical wind shear and also favoring more expansive outflow from the storm. The SAL is shown to occur in a large-scale environment that is already characteristically dry as a result of large-scale subsidence (sinking air motions). Strong surface heating and deep dry convective mixing enhance dryness at low levels, but moisten the air at midlevels. Therefore, mid-to-upper-level dryness is not a defining characteristic of the SAL, but is instead a signature of subsidence. As a result, we conclude that the SAL is not the major negative influence on hurricanes that recent studies have emphasized. It is just one of many possible influences and can be both positive and negative.

Braun, Scott A.↗