SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Storms”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

Anthropogenic Influences on Tornadic Storms

The impact of climate change on severe storms and tornadoes remains uncertain, largely owing to inconsistencies in observational data and limitations of climate models. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting climate model simulations to examine how three tornadic storms would change if similar events were to occur in pre-industrial and future climates. The choice of events includes winter, nocturnal, and spring tornadic storms to provide insight into how the timing and seasonality of storms may affect their response to climate change. Updraft helicity (UH), convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), and convective inhibition (CIN) were used to determine the favorability for the three tornadic storm events in the different climate states. We found that from the pre-industrial to present, the potential for tornadic storms decreased in the winter event and increased in the nocturnal and spring events. With future climate change, the potential for tornadic storms increased in the winter and nocturnal events in association with increased CAPE, and decreased in the spring event despite greater CAPE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of Resolution on Heavy‐Precipitating Storms in Climate Model Hindcasts

The present study investigates the impact of horizontal resolutions on heavy‐precipitating storms using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version2 (E3SMv2) at low (∼100 km, LR) and high (∼25 km, HR) resolutions through short‐range hindcasts. The short‐range hindcast approach ensures a faithful comparison of model resolution in simulating the same storm events under a controlled large‐scale environment. Using a phenomenon‐based framework, we attribute precipitation to specific storm types: tropical cyclones (TCs), extratropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Our findings show that E3SM hindcasts with both HR and LR configurations significantly underestimate storm‐associated precipitation intensity but overestimate precipitation from other sources. Furthermore, both HR and LR hindcasts face significant challenges in accurately simulating extreme precipitation events, particularly over MCS hotspots. Nevertheless, HR simulations capture more detailed and intense precipitation patterns with an improved representation of storm dynamics. HR hindcasts produce 16% more storm precipitation compared to LR. For precipitation extremes, HR simulates a 33% higher 99th percentile precipitation magnitudes compared to LR, and most of the increment comes from these four heavy‐precipitating storm types. The increase in precipitation mainly comes from stratiform precipitation rather than convective precipitation. The improvement in HR simulations varies across different storm types with TC showing the largest improvement. The phenomenon‐based approach provides important insights into precipitation simulations especially for extremes. Our results emphasize the need for further refinement in high‐resolution models to improve the accuracy of precipitation predictions, which is crucial for better understanding and mitigating climate change impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Seasonal controls on isolated convective storm drafts, precipitation intensity, and life cycle as observed during GoAmazon2014/5

Abstract. Isolated deep convective cloud life cycle and seasonal changes in storm properties are observed for daytime events during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Green Ocean Amazon Experiment (GoAmazon2014/5) campaign to understand controls on storm behavior. Storm life cycles are documented using surveillance radar from initiation through maturity and dissipation. Vertical air velocity estimates are obtained from radar wind profiler overpasses, with the storm environment informed by radiosondes. Dry-season storm conditions favored reduced morning shallow cloud coverage and larger low-level convective available potential energy (CAPE) than wet-season counterparts. The typical dry-season storm reached its peak intensity and size earlier in its life cycle compared with wet-season cells. These cells exhibited updrafts in core precipitation regions (Z>35 dBZ) to above the melting level as well as persistent downdrafts aloft within precipitation adjacent to their cores. Moreover, dry-season cells recorded more intense updrafts to earlier life cycle stages as well as a higher incidence of strong updrafts (i.e., >5 m s−1) at low levels. In contrast, wet-season storms were longer-lived and featured a higher incidence of moderate (i.e., 2–5 m s−1) updrafts aloft. These storms also favored a shift in their most intense properties to later life cycle stages. Strong downdrafts were less frequent within wet-season cells aloft, indicating a potential systematic difference in draft behaviors, as linked to graupel loading and other factors between the seasons. Results from a stochastic parcel model suggest that dry-season cells may expect stronger updrafts at low levels because of larger low-level CAPE in the dry season. Wet-season cells anticipate strong updrafts aloft because of larger free-tropospheric relative humidity and reduced entrainment-driven dilution. Enhanced dry-season downdrafts are partially attributed to increased evaporation, dry-air entrainment mixing, and negative buoyancy in regions adjacent to sampled dry-season cores.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electron Dropout Events and Flux Enhancements Associated With Geomagnetic Storms Observed by PROBA-V/Energetic Particle Telescope From 2013 to 2019

Electron flux variations for E > 500 keV during geomagnetic storms are investigated using the Energetic Particle Telescope (EPT). This detector launched in May 2013 on board the satellite PROBA-V at an altitude of 820 km was designed to provide uncontaminated spectra of electrons, protons, and alpha particles. Electron flux dropout events are observed during the main phase of each storm and even during substorms: a rapid reduction of the electron flux is noted throughout the outer electron radiation belt at all energies above about 0.5 MeV on timescales of a few hours. The electron spectrograms measured by the EPT between 2013 and 2019 show that after each geomagnetic storm, dropout events are followed by a flux enhancement starting first at low L values, and reaching the slot or even the inner belt for the strongest storms. We determine the link between Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) and the minimum value of the L-shell where the dropouts deplete the outer belt, as well as the nonlinear relation between Dst and the minimum L-shell where the flux penetrates in the slot region or even the inner belt during the storms. Dropouts appear at all energies measured by EPT and penetrate down to $\textit{L}$~3.5 for the strongest events. Dropouts are observed at Low Earth Orbit each time Dst has an inverted peak < –40 nT. Flux enhancements appear at lower L only for big storm events with Dst < –50 nT. They penetrate down to an impenetrable barrier with a minimum L-shell related to Dst and to the energy. For E > 1 MeV, this limit is also linked to the plasmapause position.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Restoration Tool): Each year hurricanes and tropical storms in the United States damage critical infrastructure assets, disrupt the services they provide, and cause millions to billions of dollars in economic impacts due to extended recovery times. The Storm-DEPART tool and analytical output enable more impactful data-driven decision-making capabilities and strengthen national-level disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. Storm-DEPART, built through multi-month collaboration between Entergy and INL, combines Entergy’s critical infrastructure inventory data with weather forecasts to predict damages to Electric utility’s assets due to natural disasters and the estimated recovery support needed, including time, materials, and resource allocation. In the event of an approaching hurricane, this innovative solution can assess potential damage to power generation capacity, transmission grids, distribution networks, and communications assets from wind bands, storm surge, and flooding. With more effective predictions, Entergy can more efficiently allocate resources to mitigate impacts and optimize recovery for customers. Storm-DEPART also allows Electric utilities the ability to apply a planning scenario and model expected damage to better inform infrastructure restoration needs leading to enhance system resiliency. The technology is fully transferrable to other electric utilities with the same damage estimating challenges. The INL team is working on the evolution of Storm-DEPART to include ice event damage prediction framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessment of Storm-Associated Precipitation and Its Extremes Using Observational Data Sets and Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts

Heavy precipitation, often associated with weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), can cause significant socio-economic loss. Here, in this study, we apply atmospheric feature trackers to quantify the contributions of these storm types in observational data sets and climate model short-range hindcasts. We generate a global hourly storm data set at 0.25° spatial resolution covering 2006–2020, based on the tracking results from TempestExtremes and Python FLEXible object TRacKeR. Our analyses show that these four storm types account for 67% of global annual mean precipitation and 82% of top 1% precipitation extremes, with MCSs mainly over the tropics, and ARs and ETCs over the midlatitudes. The percentage of precipitation contributions from these storms also show strong seasonality over many geographical locations. We further apply the tracking results to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) short-range hindcasts and evaluate how well these storms are simulated. The evaluation show that E3SM, with ∼1° resolution, significantly underestimates storm-associated precipitation totals and extremes, especially for MCSs in the tropics. Our analysis also suggests that model fails to capture the correct mean diurnal phases and amplitude of MCS precipitation. This phenomenon-based approach provides a better understanding of precipitation characteristics and can lead to enhanced model evaluation by revealing underlying problems in model physics related to precipitation processes associated with the heavy-precipitating storms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Differences in Lightning—Storm Microphysical Relationships in Subtropical South America Versus the Continental U.S. and Their Impact on Model Lightning Parameterizations

Satellite studies have shown that some of the deepest convection with high lightning flash rates occurs downstream of the Andes in subtropical South America (SSA). Using high resolution ground‐based observations in SSA, we explore the relationship between lightning and radar‐inferred storm microphysics. Results show these storms have significantly larger 35‐dBZ volumes and more graupel per lightning flash compared to storms in the U.S. We then test microphysics‐based lightning parameterizations for storms in SSA on a 1‐km convection‐permitting simulation of a mesoscale convective system. Results from the simulation match well with observed flash rates. If parameterizations based on U.S. storms had been applied, flash rates would have been overestimated by a factor of eight. These results suggest that storms in SSA are fundamentally different compared to storms in the U.S., and caution should be exercised when applying microphysics‐based lightning parameterizations in different regions of the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of ocean coupling in the weakening of the extratropical storm tracks from Arctic sea ice loss

Abstract Within the changing climate, the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks have been projected to shift poleward and expand eastward. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks arise from a variety of sometimes competing effects on the region's baroclinicity. Arctic amplification weakens the meridional temperature gradient, hence weakening the storm track, while low-latitude warming has the opposite effect, and surface-amplified warming at high latitudes reduces static stability. To determine the mechanisms driving these competing changes, we use a hierarchy of models with different levels of ocean-atmosphere coupling, using forcings from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) to assess the role of Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. We find that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances and sharpens the weakening of both the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks in response to Arctic sea ice loss, that surface turbulent heat flux modulates the intensity of the weakening, and that local ocean dynamics controls the meridional location of the response. A moist isentropic diagnostic of the atmospheric overturning circulation shows that most of the weakening of the storm tracks and its associated changes in atmospheric heat transport (AHT) arise from a weakening of the transient eddy mass flux. Poleward of the storm tracks, the AHT also decreases, but through weakened effective stratification rather than weakening mass fluxes, an effect which occurs even in the absence of ocean dynamical coupling.

Audette, Alexandre (ORCID:0000000163321088)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Urbanization-induced land and aerosol impacts on storm propagation and hail characteristics

Changes in land surface and aerosol characteristics from urbanization can affect dynamic and microphysical properties of severe storms, thus affecting hazardous weather events resulting from such storms such as hail and tornado. We examine the joint and individual effects of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols of Kansas City on a severe convective storm observed during the 2015 Plains Elevated Convection At Night (PECAN) field campaign, focusing on storm evolution, convective intensity, and hail characteristics. The simulations are carried out at the cloud-resolving scale (1 km) using a version of WRF-Chem in which the spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) is coupled with the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC). It is found that the urban land effect of Kansas City initiated a much stronger convective cell and the storm got further intensified when interacting with stronger turbulence induced by the urban land. The urban land effect also changed the storm path by diverting the storm toward the city mainly resulting from enhanced urban land-induced convergence in the urban area and around the urban-rural boundaries. The joint effect of urban land and anthropogenic aerosols enhances occurrences of both severe hail and significant severe hail by ~ 20% by enhancing hail formation and growth from riming. Overall the urban land effect on convective intensity and hail is relatively larger than the anthropogenic aerosol effect, but the joint effect is much notable than either of the individual effects, emphasizing the importance to consider both effects in evaluating urbanization effects.

Lin, Yun↗

DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Uncertainties in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Hazard Modeling Using Synthetic Storms

Tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall hazard assessment is subject to the bias in TC climatology estimation from climate simulations or synthetic downscaling. In this study, we investigate the uncertainty in TC rainfall hazard assessment induced by this bias using both rain gauge and radar observations and synthetic-storm-model-coupled TC rainfall simulations. We identify the storm’s maximum intensity, impact duration, and minimal distance to the site to be the three most important storm parameters for TC rainfall hazard, and the relationship between the important storm parameters and TC rainfall can be well captured by a physics-based TC rainfall model. The uncertainty in the synthetic rainfall hazard induced by the bias in TC climatology can be largely explained by the bias in the important storm parameters simulated by the synthetic storm model. Correcting the distribution of the most biased parameter may significantly improve rainfall hazard estimation. Bias correction based on the joint distribution of the important parameters may render more accurate rainfall hazard estimations; however, the general technical difficulties in resampling from high-dimensional joint probability distributions prevent more accurate estimations in some cases. The results of the study also support future investigation of the impact of climate change on TC rainfall hazards through the lens of future changes in the identified important storm parameters.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The effects of storms and a transient sandy veneer on the interannual planform evolution of a low-relief coastal cliff and shore platform at Sargent Beach, Texas, USA

Coastal cliff erosion is alongshore-variable and episodic, with retreat rates that depend upon sediment as either tools of abrasion or protective cover. However, the feedbacks between coastal cliff planform morphology, retreat rate, and sediment cover are poorly quantified. This study investigates Sargent Beach, Texas, USA, at the annual to interannual scale to explore (1) the relationship between temporal and spatial variability in cliff retreat rate, roughness, and sinuosity and (2) the response of retreat rate and roughness to changes in sand and shell hash cover of the underlying mud substrate as well as the impact of major storms using field measurements of sediment cover, erosion, and aerial images to measure shore platform morphology and retreat. A storm event in 2009 increased the planform roughness and sinuosity of the coastal cliff at Sargent Beach. Following the storm, aerial-image-derived shorelines with annual resolution show a decrease in average alongshore erosion rates from 12 to 4 m yr –1 , coincident with a decrease in shoreline roughness and sinuosity (smoothing). Like the previous storm, a storm event in 2017 increased the planform roughness and sinuosity of the cliff. Over shorter timescales, monthly retreat of the sea cliff occurred only when the platform was sparsely covered with sediment cover on the shore platform, indicating that the tools and cover effects can significantly affect short-term erosion rates. The timescale to return to a smooth shoreline following a storm or roughening event, given a steady-state erosion rate, is approximately 24 years, with the long-term rate suggesting a maximum of ~107 years until Sargent Beach breaches, compromising the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway (GIWW) under current conditions and assuming no future storms or intervention. The observed retreat rate varies, both spatially and temporally, with cliff face morphology, demonstrating the importance of multi-scale measurements and analysis for interpretation of coastal processes and patterns of cliff retreat.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Storm-DEPART (Damage Estimate Prediction and Recovery Tool)

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗

DOE OSTI2023

Efficient Probabilistic Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification of Tropical Cyclone–Driven Storm Tides and Inundation

Abstract This study proposes and assesses a methodology to obtain high-quality probabilistic predictions and uncertainty information of near-landfall tropical cyclone–driven (TC-driven) storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. Forecasts of TC track, intensity, and size are perturbed according to quasi-random Korobov sequences of historical forecast errors with assumed Gaussian and uniform statistical distributions. These perturbations are run in an ensemble of hydrodynamic storm tide model simulations. The resulting set of maximum water surface elevations are dimensionality reduced using Karhunen–Loève expansions and then used as a training set to develop a polynomial chaos (PC) surrogate model from which global sensitivities and probabilistic predictions can be extracted. The maximum water surface elevation is extrapolated over dry points incorporating energy head loss with distance to properly train the surrogate for predicting inundation. We find that the surrogate constructed with third-order PCs using elastic net penalized regression with leave-one-out cross validation provides the most robust fit across training and test sets. Probabilistic predictions of maximum water surface elevation and inundation area by the surrogate model at 48-h lead time for three past U.S. landfalling hurricanes (Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Laura in 2020) are found to be reliable when compared to best track hindcast simulation results, even when trained with as few as 19 samples. The maximum water surface elevation is most sensitive to perpendicular track-offset errors for all three storms. Laura is also highly sensitive to storm size and has the least reliable prediction. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to develop and evaluate a methodology that can be used to provide high-quality probabilistic predictions of hurricane-induced storm tide and inundation with limited time and resources. This is important for emergency management purposes during or after the landfall of hurricanes. Our results show that sampling forecast errors using quasi-random sequences combined with machine learning techniques that fit polynomial functions to the data are well suited to this task. The polynomial functions also have the benefit of producing exact sensitivity indices of storm tide and inundation to the forecasted hurricane properties such as path, intensity, and size, which can be used for uncertainty estimation. The code implementing the presented methodology is publicly available on GitHub.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan Middle DP Road Recovery Effort, June 26, 2020

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has issued a final 2017 Construction General Permit (CGP) that covers discharges of stormwater from construction sites. The 2017 National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) General Permit for Storm Water Discharges from Construction Activity (Appendix D) includes the following requirements:(1) conduct a critical habitat and threatened/endangered species study; (2) develop and implement a Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) in accordance with good engineering practices; (3) submit a Notice of Intent (NOI); (4) install and maintain erosion and stormwater controls; (5) perform and document storm water inspections during construction and site stabilization; (6) amend the SWPPP as necessary; and (7) submit a Notice of Termination (NOT) following project completion and final stabilization of disturbed areas. Authorization to discharge storm water is required under this Permit for both large and small construction projects disturbing more than one (1) acre or part of a larger common plan of development that collectively disturbs more than one (1) acre. All parties that meet the definition of Operator must be permitted. Each permittee is not required to develop and implement a separate SWPP Plan. It is required that there be at least one SWPP Plan for a site that incorporates the required elements for all Operators. The 2017 CGP number for New Mexico (Region 6) is NMR100000. This Plan, which has been developed for Triad National Security, LLC (Triad), describes the nature and sequencing of construction activities, potential sources of pollution, and identifies the Best Management Practices (BMPs) to minimize the potential for erosion and storm water pollution. The Plan was developed in accordance with the provisions of the Clean Water Act (33 U.S.C. § §1251 et seq., as amended by the Water Quality Act of 1987, P.L. 100-4), and the regulations established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) General Permits for Storm Water Discharges From Construction Activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan Middle DP Road Recovery Effort, June 26, 2020 (Copy for Informational Puproses Only)

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has issued a final 2017 Construction General Permit (CGP) that covers discharges of stormwater from construction sites. The 2017 National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) General Permit for Storm Water Discharges from Construction Activity (Appendix D) includes the following requirements: (1) conduct a critical habitat and threatened/endangered species study; (2) develop and implement a Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) in accordance with good engineering practices; (3) submit a Notice of Intent (NOI); (4) install and maintain erosion and stormwater controls; (5) perform and document storm water inspections during construction and site stabilization; (6) amend the SWPPP as necessary; and (7) submit a Notice of Termination (NOT) following project completion and final stabilization of disturbed areas. Authorization to discharge storm water is required under this Permit for both large and small construction projects disturbing more than one (1) acre or part of a larger common plan of development that collectively disturbs more than one (1) acre. All parties that meet the definition of Operator must be permitted. Each permittee is not required to develop and implement a separate SWPP Plan. It is required that there be at least one SWPP Plan for a site that incorporates the required elements for all Operators. The 2017 CGP number for New Mexico (Region 6) is NMR100000. This Plan, which has been developed for Triad National Security, LLC (Triad), describes the nature and sequencing of construction activities, potential sources of pollution, and identifies the Best Management Practices (BMPs) to minimize the potential for erosion and storm water pollution. The Plan was developed in accordance with the provisions of the Clean Water Act (33 U.S.C. § §1251 et seq., as amended by the Water Quality Act of 1987, P.L. 100-4), and the regulations established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) General Permits for Storm Water Discharges From Construction Activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Projected Changes to Cool‐Season Storm Tides in the 21st Century Along the Northeastern United States Coast

Abstract This study investigates changes and uncertainties to cool‐season (November‐March) storm tides along the U.S. northeast coast in the 21st century under the high RCP8.5 emission scenario compared to late 20th century. A high‐fidelity (50‐m coastal resolution) hydrodynamic storm tide model is forced with three dynamically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) over three decadal periods (historical, mid‐21st century, and late‐21st century) to project future changes in peak storm tide elevations at coastal counties in the region. While there is no absolute consensus on future changes to storm tides, for any one future decade two out of the three RCMs project an increase at counties along the Hudson River, Delaware River, and northern Chesapeake Bay due to more intense cyclones that track inland of these locations leading to favorable surge generating conditions. The same RCMs also project a decrease at counties facing the open ocean in the mid‐Atlantic Bight as cyclone densities just offshore of the coastline decrease, particularly by late‐century. The greater tidal range in northern areas of the region leads to uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of the projected changes to storm tide levels due to the arbitrary timing of the local tidal stage and the surge‐producing weather event. This random tide‐weather timing is less important in the Chesapeake Bay and unimportant in Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. Similar to other recent studies, we highlight that sea level rise is likely to be more critical than storm climatology for future changes to the cool‐season coastal flooding potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗