Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Streamflow Projections”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

26 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data and scripts associated with “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” (v2)

This data package is associated with the publication “When do Riverine Systems 'Feel the Burn'? Simulating How Burn Extent and Severity Modulate Hydrologic Controls on Biogeochemical Export” published in Water Resources Research (Wampler et al. 2025; preprint: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.174438106.63564767/v1). This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a processed based model to explore the impacts of area burned and burn severity on streamflow, nitrate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in two test basins: a semi-arid, mixed land use basin and a humid, primarily forested basin. We developed 1800 wildfire scenarios that we ran in each basin: 20 different burn extents (5 to 100% by 5%), 3 different burn severities (low, moderate, and high), and 30 different post-fire precipitation scenarios. We also ran an additional 30 scenarios associated with no wildfire for the 30 post-fire precipitation scenarios. For each scenario we were interested in the change in runoff ratio (streamflow) and average concentration and annual loads (nitrate and DOC) across the wildfire scenarios. This data package contains the data and scripts required to build SWAT models for the two test basins, create and run the wildfire scenarios, and generate the data summaries and figures used in the associated manuscript. This data package was originally published in March 2025. It was updated in January 2026 (v2; new and modified files) to include the final files after the manuscript went through reviews. See the change history section below for more details. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Flow Forecasting on New England’s Great River Hydro (CRADA 549) (Final Report)

Great River Hydro (GRH) is New England's largest conventional hydropower generator and operates sustainable hydropower systems in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Massachusetts. Several of GRH’s hydropower projects on the Connecticut River are largely constrained to operate as run-of-river; however, though a new FERC license they have opportunity in the form of flex hours where they are allowed to deviate operations to capture favorable market conditions or emergency operations. To maximize value from these new operations, GRH is considering new sources of forecasted inflow. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is evaluating the quality of two commercial inflow forecasts for GRH under DOE Water Power Technology Office’s Notice of Opportunity for Technical Assistance: Improving Hydropower’s Value through Informed Decision Making. This project will provide an unbiased evaluation of the accuracy of inflow forecasts available through commercial vendors. GRH will use this information to support their decision on which inflow forecast to use under their new FERC license and to assess the overall value of the available inflow forecasting tools and practices. In this talk we will discuss details of the near real-time forecast evaluation process, the metrics involved in the evaluation, and some preliminary results. In addition, we’ll touch on the second phase of the project which involves evaluating scheduling strategies that identify windows of opportunity to change operations in ways that increase profit through participation in day ahead and real time markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data and script associated with “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest”

This data package contains the data and code to use and run the Water Tracer enabled version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrologic model (WT-WRF-Hydro) with the Sequential Precipitation Input Tagging (SPIT) framework. It is associated with the publication “Shifts in Rain-Snow Partitioning Drive Faster Water Transit Times in the US Pacific Northwest” published in Scientific Reports (Butler et al., 2026; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-46539-1). We use the Continental U.S. (CONUSII; Rasmussen et al., 2021) dataset to force the model with an historical climate (2006–2013) and a future climate (2086–2093) with a representative carbon pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. We use the model to calculate water transit times in five headwater catchments within the U.S. Pacific Northwest. We also show key hydrologic and environmental variables that affect water transit times and changes in the future. Finally, we use observed data to validate the model such as stream water isotopes, snowpack characteristics, and stream discharge. For details on how to navigate data packages generated by this project, see https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/PNNLRiverCorridorSFA/About. In addition to a readme, this data package also includes a file-level metadata (FLMD) file that describes each file and a data dictionary (DD) that describes all column/row headers and variable definitions. The data package consists of 11 folders: (1) "Figures" contains the exported figures used in the manuscript; (2) "Model_Isotope_Date" contains the WT-WRF-Hydro isotope date used in model validation; (3) “Model_Outputs_Future” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro future climate outputs; (4) “Model_Outputs_Historical” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro historical climate outputs; (5) “Model_Outputs_Weights_Areas” contains the WT-WRF-Hydro weights per catchment used to calculate water transit times and isotopes in stream water; (6) “MODIS_data_scripts” contains data used to validate snow conditions in the study area; (7) “Observed_Flow_Data” contains the observed streamflow data used in model validation; (8) “Observed_Isotope_Data” contains the observed stream water isotope data used in model validation; (9) “Scripts” contains the Python scripts used to general results and the figures; (10) “Statistic_Outputs” contains the water transit time statistical outputs reported in this manuscript; (11) “Validation_SNOTEL” contains the SNOTEL data used in model validation. The files in this data package have the following file extensions: .tif, .txt, .csv, .pdf, .py, .jpg, and .png.

American River↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data, model inputs, and analysis scripts associated with a manuscript on stream intermittency controls across spatial scales in Pacific Northwest watersheds

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript "Hydroclimatic Memory and Watershed Template Shape Stream Intermittency: Multi-scale Attribution Using Process-based Simulation and Explainable ML" by Niroula et al. (2026), submitted to Water Resources Research (WRR). The study investigates the dominant controls on stream intermittency across local, reach, and watershed scales using a coupled process-based simulation and explainable machine-learning framework. Long-term daily simulations from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) were used to generate wetness states and ponded-depth responses over river-corridor cells. These ATS outputs were then aggregated across scales and used to train XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to quantify the relative importance of hydroclimatic forcings, watershed template attributes, and antecedent-memory effects in shaping intermittency behavior. The analysis is carried out for three contrasting Pacific Northwest watersheds: Oak Creek (OCW), American River Watershed (ARW), and H.J. Andrews (HJA). Across these testbeds, the package contains ATS-ready watershed inputs, ATS run configuration and selected output files, model-evaluation data products, intermittency-analysis datasets, machine-learning target-feature tables, SHAP outputs, and notebooks used to organize, analyze, and visualize results. At a high level, the package documents a workflow in which ATS provides the physically based simulation backbone and explainable machine learning is used as a post-processing attribution tool. The contents are intended to support interpretation of the manuscript figures and results, provide context for how intermittency metrics were generated at multiple scales, and preserve the key artifacts needed to understand and reuse the analysis workflow. The package contains a high-level directory summary file (`summary.txt`) and four main content folders (1) `evaluation_plots` contains evaluation figures and supporting evaluation datasets; (2) `intermittency_plots` contains intermittency-focused analysis notebook and prepared datasets; (3) `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` contains ML training inputs, SHAP outputs, and figure-generation notebooks; and (4) `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` contains ATS model setup materials, forcing inputs, geometry, and selected run files. More specifically, the `evaluation_plots` folder contains the notebook used for ATS evaluation plotting and site-specific evaluation datasets. These include evapotranspiration and water-balance products for three watersheds, as well as an Oak Creek field-measurement discharge file. The `intermittency_plots` folder contains the notebook used for intermittency analysis and the prepared datasets used to analyze intermittent and non-intermittent wetness behavior across the study watersheds. The `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` folder contains notebooks and outputs for the machine-learning and explainability workflow. This includes the main XGBoost and SHAP notebook(s), a beeswarm plotting notebook, target-feature tables for machine-learning training, SHAP summary tables, and per-sample SHAP value archives. The `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` folder contains ATS-related watershed inputs and supporting materials. This includes mesh and shape products, ATS-readable LAI and meteorological forcing inputs, selected ATS spinup and transient-run files, and a watershed workflow example notebook. Subdirectories are organized by watershed where applicable.All files are .cpg (codepage files), .csv (comma-separated values), .dbf (database files), .exo (Exodus mesh format), .h5 (HDF5 format), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .pkl (Python pickle), .prj (projection files), .sh (shell scripts), .shp (shapefile geometry), .shx (shapefile index), .txt (text files), or .xml (markup data).

Advanced Terrestrial Simulator↗
DOE OSTI2025

Drivers of Historical and Future Coastal Runoff Across the Arctic and Sub‐Arctic Subregions of Alaska, USA

This study investigates historical and future coastal runoff across the Arctic and sub-Arctic subregions of Alaska, USA, emphasising changes in terrestrial hydrology and their implications for coastal discharge. Using the physically based SnowModel-HydroFlow framework, historical (1991–2020) and future (2071–2100) coastal discharge climatologies were simulated, incorporating meteorological, topographic, and land cover inputs. Results reveal distinct seasonal and spatial patterns in temperature, precipitation, and snow dynamics across the Beaufort, Chukchi, Yukon, and Bristol subregions. Future projections suggest significant warming and shifts in hydrological regimes, such as increased annual precipitation and coastal discharge totals. Following a high emissions, business as usual pathway (SSP5-8.5), coastal discharge hydrographs in the Beaufort and Yukon subregions remain snow dominated with increases in discharge in nearly all months, while Chukchi and Bristol subregions shift from snow dominated to rain dominated. These changes are linked to rising temperatures, decreasing snow precipitation fractions, and altered freezing levels, with implications for water storage, timing, and availability. This research provides insights into the drivers and consequences of hydrological changes in a rapidly warming Arctic, supporting efforts to predict and mitigate the impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Co-Firing Switchgrass and Waste Coal in A Power Plant: A Techno-Economic and Life Cycle Evaluation for The Ohio River Valley (SWITCH) (Final Technical Report for Ohio State/FE0032204)

Abandoned coal mine lands (AMLs) represent one of the most persistent environmental challenges in the United States. Prior to the enactment of the Surface Mining Control and Reclamation Act (SMCRA) in 1977, coal mining operations were not legally required to reclaim disturbed lands, leaving behind approximately 500,000 AML sites nationwide. These sites pose severe environmental and health risks, including acid mine drainage, soil and water contamination, and spontaneous combustion of waste coal piles. Millions of Americans live within one mile of these AMLs, underscoring the urgency of remediation. Traditional reclamation practices, such as planting cool-season grasses, often fail to fully restore ecological function or leverage the economic potential of these lands. This project addressed these challenges by developing integrated strategies for resource recovery, land reclamation, and sustainable energy production. This project evaluated an integrated strategy to convert this liability into an opportunity by recovering waste coal and co-firing it with switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) cultivated on reclaimed or marginal AML areas in existing coal-fired power plants. Switchgrass not only provides a renewable feedstock but also aids in land reclamation and carbon sequestration. 1) Remote Sensing and Machine Learning for Waste Coal Identification Using Sentinel-2 satellite imagery and supervised classification, we applied four machine learning models to detect historical waste coal piles. Random Forest achieved the highest accuracy (precision: 86%, recall: 77%). Time-series analysis revealed gradual vegetation recovery since 1986, indicating natural reclamation processes in historical sites, while active mining areas showed ongoing disturbance. This workflow enables scalable monitoring and prioritization of reclamation efforts. 2) UAS-Based Stockpile Volume Estimation To quantify recoverable waste coal, we evaluated Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) equipped with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and multispectral sensors. Structure-from-Motion (SfM) photogrammetry combined with interpolated Digital Terrain Models (DTMs) achieved strong agreement with LiDAR reference volumes (Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ≈147 m 3 , Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) ≈2%). Sensitivity analysis confirmed that spatial resolution significantly influences accuracy, emphasizing the need for high-resolution data for precise volume estimation. This approach offers a scalable, cost-effective, and accurate alternative to conventional ground-based surveys. 3) Switchgrass Cultivation for Bioenergy and Water Quality Improvement We assessed the hydrological and water quality impacts of converting AMLs to switchgrass production areas using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results showed that converting 10% of the watershed area into the switchgrass production zone reduced streamflow by 3.1%, total suspended solids by 18.1%, total nitrogen by 7.6%, and total phosphorus by 6.2%, while achieving biomass yields of 8.6–9.2 metric tons per hectare. These findings highlight switchgrass as a dual-benefit strategy for land reclamation and bioenergy feedstock production. 4) Integrated Co-Firing and CCS for Carbon-Negative Power Generation We modeled co-firing scenarios using the Power Plant Flexible Model (PPFM) to evaluate plant efficiency, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). Without carbon capture and storage (CCS), increasing switchgrass co-firing ratios reduced LCOE from $\$$150/MWh at 0% biomass to $\$$110/MWh at full substitution. Under CCS, costs remained higher (~$\$$250/MWh at 0% biomass) but decreased to $\$$200/MWh at 100% biomass, while enabling net-zero or carbon-negative electricity due to switchgrass sequestration benefits. Although CCS introduced efficiency penalties, pairing it with biomass co-firing offset these impacts and maximized climate benefits. Overall, optimizing co-firing ratios between 60-100%, supported by reliable logistics and storage strategies, emerged as a practical pathway to balance affordability, sustainability, and net-zero or negative GHG emissions while promoting productive reuse of AMLs.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field and Model Data Associated with the Manuscript “Drivers of Streamflow Intermittency in Humid Regions: 1. Evaluating Above- and Below-ground Controls of Flow Persistence in a Forested Catchment”

This package contains field data, modeling files, and scripts supporting the investigation of the drivers of streamflow intermittency in a forested catchment. It includes the field data collected from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys, ground penetrating radar (GPR), continuous self-potential (SP) monitoring, electromagnetic (EM) imaging, groundwater and stilling well. In addition, it contains the data and results of the coupled water- and electrical-flow model developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics and Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), as well as software files and Jupyter notebooks used to process the data and generate figures in the manuscript submitted for peer review. The data archive is organized in the following directories: 1) Climate Includes hourly precipitation and daily evapotranspiration time series (2024 – 2025) provided as CSV files, alongside a text file detailing dataset units. 2) Coupled_model Contains two subfolders: Synthetic and Field_Application subfolder. Synthetic subfolder contains the ATS XML input script (can be opened using any code editor) for the four synthetic hydrological cases tested (Connected and gaining, Connected and losing, Disconnected and losing, and dry stream). It also includes other experimental cases to test the influence of precipitation and concentration gradient. For each synthetic case, the flow model simulation is executed using the ATS XML scripts and the included Python script (generate_data_set.py) to convert ATS output to COMSOL-ready input. COMSOL Multiphysics template (.mph can be opened with the commercial software COMSOL and requires a license) is executed using the ATS output data to simulate the potential field. It also includes the Synthetic_model_plot.ipynb (can be opened using any code editor) to visualize the SP result and generate manuscript figures. The data subfolder contains mesh files to run both the ATS (.exo and .stl files can be viewed using Paraview; .h5 files can be opened using HDFView software and h5py Python package) and COMSOL models. Field_Application subfolder contains two subfolders: ES_MDA_inversion and Final_Model. ES_MDA_inversion contains the Python script (.py can be opened using any code editor) and SP observation data used to run the Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) inversion sequence to get the optimal model parameters. The Final_model subfolder contains the ATS XML input scripts, data files, output data for the two SP sites. The same workflow steps outlined for the Synthetic subfolder apply here. It also contains the Jupyter notebook (Plot_final_calib.ipynb) to visualize the results of the modeled SP, stream-groundwater exchange and moisture content. 3) Discharge Includes the electrical conductivity (EC) time series (provided as CSV files) from salt slug injections. It also includes the Jupyter notebook (Discharge_process.ipynyb) used to estimate discharge. All discharge measurements collated into rating_curve_processed.csv 4) EM Contains the CSV file of the EM data from the DUALEM-42, including spatial coordinates (x, y, z), apparent conductivity, and in-phase measurements at 2 m coil separations for horizontal coplanar (HCP) and perpendicular (PRP) geometries. 5) ERT Contains raw resistivity data (provided as CSV files), spatial location of each of the electrodes (provided as CSV files), and files used for the resistivity inversion (.resipy can be opened with the open-source ResIPy software). 6) GPR Includes GPR field datasets collected at 100 MHz and 250 MHz antenna frequencies, along with the processing/interpretation project file (GPR_process.gpz can be viewed using EKKO_Project 6, a commercial software by Sensors & Software that requires a license). 7) Slug_test Includes the slug test data at all the groundwater wells provided as CSV files, as well as the Jupyter notebook (Slug_test.ipynb) for calculating hydraulic conductivity. 8) SP Contains the SP data collected in field at the two SP sites (one in the perennial reach and the other in the intermittent reach), provided as DAT files. 9) Well_data Contains two subfolders: 1) Raw, which provides unprocessed pressure, electrical conductivity and temperature timeseries downloaded from the loggers in all the groundwater and stilling wells, and 2) Processed, which contains sorted, QA/QC timeseries data for each well. The data archive also contains data_process.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook used for field data analysis and generating figures (plotting well, SP, climate, and discharge data, as well as calculating head gradient at sites with nested groundwater wells). It also includes DTW.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook containing the code for the dynamic time warping (DTW) with sliding window to evaluate SP signal synchronicity.

ATS↗