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At least 37 records · Page 2

Non-Systematic Errors of Monthly Oceanic Rainfall Derived From TMI

A major objective of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) is to produce a multi-year time series of monthly rainfall over 50 latitude by 50 longitude boxes with an uncertainty of 1 mm/day for low rain rates and 10% for high rain rates. Based on some simple assumptions about the error structure, we compute the non-systematic errors of monthly oceanic rainfall over the same space/time domain derived from data taken by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI). The mean rain rates over a two-year period (1998-1999) are calculated to be 3.0, 2.85, 2.94 mm/day for SSM/I onboard the DMSP F-13, F-14 and TMI, respectively. Assuming that the non-systematic errors for each sensor are independent, the errors are calculated to be 22.2%, 22.4% and 19.7% for F-13, F-14 and for TMI, respectively. The non-systematic error for the TMI is smaller than that for either F-13 or F-14 SSM/I at the low rain rates but is comparable at rain rates higher than about 5 mm/day. The TRMM objective of 1 mm/day for non-systematic error is met by TMI for rain rates up to 5-6 mm/day. For higher rain rates, the nonsystematic error is in the 15% range. The goal of a 10% error for high rain rates may be realized by a combination of sensor measurements from multiple satellites, such as that advocated by the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM).

Chiu, Long S.↗

Near Identifiability of Dynamical Systems

Concepts regarding approximate mathematical models treated rigorously. Paper presents new results in analysis of structural identifiability, equivalence, and near equivalence between mathematical models and physical processes they represent. Helps establish rigorous mathematical basis for concepts related to structural identifiability and equivalence revealing fundamental requirements, tacit assumptions, and sources of error. "Structural identifiability," as used by workers in this field, loosely translates as meaning ability to specify unique mathematical model and set of model parameters that accurately predict behavior of corresponding physical system.

Hadaegh, F. Y.↗

Active figure maintenance control using an optical truss laser metrology system for a space-based far-IR segmented telescope

A two-stage active control approach was developed addressing the figure control problem for a spaceborne FIR telescope, the Precision Segmented Reflectors Focus Moderate Mission Telescope (FMMT). The first active control stage aligns the optical segments based on images; attention is here given to the second stage, active figure maintenance control system, which maintains the alignment of the optical elements between initializations to hold the mirror figure steady while obtaining data and fixes translational and rotational changes of the optical segments induced by long-term thermal drifts of the support structure. Errors are expected to be 10-100 microns at the nodes of the primary backup structure over the course of an orbit. An rms performance of 0.8 microns of wavefront error can be expected during the maintenance function based on specified nominal sensor noises, actuator accuracies, and system environments. A performance of less than 0.3 microns rms can be expected, based on advanced components.

Lau, Kenneth↗

Robustness tests utilizing the structure of modelling error

The present investigation is essentially concerned with the extension of results presented by Lehtomaki et al. (1981) on the robustness of multivariable linear time invariant feedback control systems. The work reported by Lehtomaki et al. is based on a multivariable version of Nyquist's theorem from which several robustness theorems were derived. In connection with the current investigation a slightly more general approach based on Nyquist's theorem is given in a fundamental robustness theorem from which various robustness tests may be obtained. A fundamental characterization of robustness is considered, and important tools from matrix theory are introduced. Attention is given to robustness tests and unstructured model error, and a robustness analysis for linear systems with structured model error.

Lehtomaki, N. A.↗

The evolution of the FIGARO data reduction system

The Figaro data reduction system originated at Caltech around 1983. It was based on concepts being developed in the U.K. by the Starlink organization, particularly the use of hierarchical self-defining data structures and the abstraction of most user-interaction into a set of 'parameter system' routines. Since 1984 it has continued to be developed at AAO, in collaboration with Starlink and Caltech. It was adopted as Starlink's main spectroscopic data reduction package, although it is by no means limited to spectra; it has operations for images and data cubes and even a few (very specialized) for four-dimensional data hypercubes. It continued to be used at Caltech and will be used at the Keck. It is also in use at a variety of other organizations around the world. Figaro was originally a system for VMS Vaxes. Recently it was ported (at Caltech) to run on SUN's, and work is underway at the University of New South Wales on a DecStation version. It is hoped to coordinate all this work into a unified release, but coordination of the development of a system by organizations covering three continents poses a number of interesting administrative problems. The hierarchical data structures used by Figaro allow it to handle a variety of types of data, and to add new items to data structures. Error and data quality information was added to the basic file format used, error information being particularly useful for infrared data. Cooperating sets of programs can add specific sub-structures to data files to carry information that they understand (polarimetry data containing multiple data arrays, for example), without this affecting the way other programs handle the files. Complex instrument-specific ancillary information can be added to data files written at a telescope and can be used by programs that understand the instrumental details in order to produce properly calibrated data files. Once this preliminary data processing was done the resulting files contain 'ordinary' spectra or images that can be processed by programs that are not instrument-specific. The structures holding the instrumental information can then be discarded from the files. Much effort has gone into trying to make it easy to write Figaro programs; data access subroutines are now available to handle access to all the conventional items found in Figaro files (main data arrays, error information, quality information etc), and programs that only need to access such items can be very simple indeed. A large number of Figaro users do indeed write their own Figaro applications using these routines. The fact that Figaro programs are written as callable subroutines getting information from the user through a small set of parameter routines means that they can be invoked in numerous ways; they are normally linked and run as individual programs (called by a small main routine that is generated automatically), but are also available linked to run under the ADAM data acquisition system and there is an interface that lets them be called as part of a user-written Fortran program. The long-term future of Figaro probably depends to a large extent on how successfully it manages the transition from being a VMS-only system to being a multi-platform system.

Shortridge, K.↗

Performance Metrics, Error Modeling, and Uncertainty Quantification

A common set of statistical metrics has been used to summarize the performance of models or measurements-­ the most widely used ones being bias, mean square error, and linear correlation coefficient. They assume linear, additive, Gaussian errors, and they are interdependent, incomplete, and incapable of directly quantifying un­certainty. The authors demonstrate that these metrics can be directly derived from the parameters of the simple linear error model. Since a correct error model captures the full error information, it is argued that the specification of a parametric error model should be an alternative to the metrics-based approach. The error-modeling meth­odology is applicable to both linear and nonlinear errors, while the metrics are only meaningful for linear errors. In addition, the error model expresses the error structure more naturally, and directly quantifies uncertainty. This argument is further explained by highlighting the intrinsic connections between the performance metrics, the error model, and the joint distribution between the data and the reference.

Quantification↗

On the apparent insignificance of the randomness of flexible joints on large space truss dynamics

Deployable periodic large space structures have been shown to exhibit high dynamic sensitivity to period-breaking imperfections and uncertainties. These can be brought on by manufacturing or assembly errors, structural imperfections, as well as nonlinear and/or nonconservative joint behavior. In addition, the necessity of precise pointing and position capability can require the consideration of these usually negligible and unknown parametric uncertainties and their effect on the overall dynamic response of large space structures. This work describes the use of a new design approach for the global dynamic solution of beam-like periodic space structures possessing parametric uncertainties. Specifically, the effect of random flexible joints on the free vibrations of simply-supported periodic large space trusses is considered. The formulation is a hybrid approach in terms of an extended Timoshenko beam continuum model, Monte Carlo simulation scheme, and first-order perturbation methods. The mean and mean-square response statistics for a variety of free random vibration problems are derived for various input random joint stiffness probability distributions. The results of this effort show that, although joint flexibility has a substantial effect on the modal dynamic response of periodic large space trusses, the effect of any reasonable uncertainty or randomness associated with these joint flexibilities is insignificant.

Koch, R. M.↗

A study of the modal truncation error in the component mode analysis of a dual-rotor system

In the component mode synthesis method, the equation of motion in the generalized coordinates is built upon the undamped eigenvalue data of the component structures. Error is inevitable when truncated modes are used. In this paper, two modal truncation schemes were evaluated with regard to the critical speed, stability, and unbalance response of a two-spool gas turbine engine. The numbers of modes required to yield acceptable accuracy in these cases were determined. Guidelines for modal truncation were derived from these results.

Li, D. F.↗

Analysis of modeling errors in system identification

This paper is concerned with the identification of a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced using the concept of near-equivalence between a model and process. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of system parameters are given. The effect of structural error on the parameter estimates for both deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Hadaegh, F. Y.↗

Parameter estimation and error analysis in environmental modeling and computation

A method for the estimation of parameters and error analysis in the development of nonlinear modeling for environmental impact assessment studies is presented. The modular computer program can interactively fit different nonlinear models to the same set of data, dynamically changing the error structure associated with observed values. Parameter estimation techniques and sequential estimation algorithms employed in parameter identification and model selection are first discussed. Then, least-square parameter estimation procedures are formulated, utilizing differential or integrated equations, and are used to define a model for association of error with experimentally observed data.

Kalmaz, E. E.↗

A stochastic-dynamic model for the spatial structure of forecast error statistics

The present investigation is concerned with the presentation of a simplified model of the spatial structure of forecast error statistics, a comparison of the model with actual numerical weather prediction results, and the extent to which simplifying assumptions made in the model are justified. A stochastic-dynamic model is derived for the spatial structure of the global atmospheric mass-field forecast error. The model states that the relative potential vorticity of the forecast error is random. The covariance function of the model's solutions is found to be governed by a simple deterministic equation. The agreement between the stochastic model and actual mass-field forecast errors fields for 12-36 h periods validates the assumptions on which the model is derived. Within this period, the difference between the potential voriticity fields of the atmosphere and of the numerical forecasts used in the comparison is well represented by white noise.

Balgovind, R.↗

Comparison of TRMM 2A25 Products Version 6 and Version 7 with NOAA/NSSL Ground Radar-Based National Mosaic QPE

Characterization of the error associated to satellite rainfall estimates is a necessary component of deterministic and probabilistic frameworks involving spaceborne passive and active microwave measurements for applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards related to extreme rainfall events. We focus here on the error structure of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) at ground. The problem was addressed in a previous paper by comparison of 2A25 version 6 (V6) product with reference values derived from NOAA/NSSL's ground radar-based National Mosaic and QPE system (NMQ/Q2). The primary contribution of this study is to compare the new 2A25 version 7 (V7) products that were recently released as a replacement of V6. This new version is considered superior over land areas. Several aspects of the two versions are compared and quantified including rainfall rate distributions, systematic biases, and random errors. All analyses indicate V7 is an improvement over V6.

Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel↗

Analysis of a Split-Plot Experimental Design Applied to a Low-Speed Wind Tunnel Investigation

A procedure to analyze a split-plot experimental design featuring two input factors, two levels of randomization, and two error structures in a low-speed wind tunnel investigation of a small-scale model of a fighter airplane configuration is described in this report. Standard commercially-available statistical software was used to analyze the test results obtained in a randomization-restricted environment often encountered in wind tunnel testing. The input factors were differential horizontal stabilizer incidence and the angle of attack. The response variables were the aerodynamic coefficients of lift, drag, and pitching moment. Using split-plot terminology, the whole plot, or difficult-to-change, factor was the differential horizontal stabilizer incidence, and the subplot, or easy-to-change, factor was the angle of attack. The whole plot and subplot factors were both tested at three levels. Degrees of freedom for the whole plot error were provided by replication in the form of three blocks, or replicates, which were intended to simulate three consecutive days of wind tunnel facility operation. The analysis was conducted in three stages, which yielded the estimated mean squares, multiple regression function coefficients, and corresponding tests of significance for all individual terms at the whole plot and subplot levels for the three aerodynamic response variables. The estimated regression functions included main effects and two-factor interaction for the lift coefficient, main effects, two-factor interaction, and quadratic effects for the drag coefficient, and only main effects for the pitching moment coefficient.

Erickson, Gary E.↗

Toward a Framework for Systematic Error Modeling of NASA Spaceborne Radar with NOAA/NSSL Ground Radar-Based National Mosaic QPE

Characterization of the error associated to satellite rainfall estimates is a necessary component of deterministic and probabilistic frameworks involving space-born passive and active microwave measurement") for applications ranging from water budget studies to forecasting natural hazards related to extreme rainfall events. We focus here on the error structure of NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) at ground. The problem is addressed by comparison of PR QPEs with reference values derived from ground-based measurements using NOAA/NSSL ground radar-based National Mosaic and QPE system (NMQ/Q2). A preliminary investigation of this subject has been carried out at the PR estimation scale (instantaneous and 5 km) using a three-month data sample in the southern part of US. The primary contribution of this study is the presentation of the detailed steps required to derive trustworthy reference rainfall dataset from Q2 at the PR pixel resolution. It relics on a bias correction and a radar quality index, both of which provide a basis to filter out the less trustworthy Q2 values. Several aspects of PR errors arc revealed and quantified including sensitivity to the processing steps with the reference rainfall, comparisons of rainfall detectability and rainfall rate distributions, spatial representativeness of error, and separation of systematic biases and random errors. The methodology and framework developed herein applies more generally to rainfall rate estimates from other sensors onboard low-earth orbiting satellites such as microwave imagers and dual-wavelength radars such as with the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission.

Kirstettier, Pierre-Emmanual↗

Burst-error characteristics of the equatorial transionospheric channel

Analyses of AGC analog data from the Small Astronomy Satellite (SAS) at VHF (136 MHz) have shown amplitude fluctuations in the signals received at several equatorial tracking sites operated by NASA. Errors in data are shown to increase markedly for nighttime satellite passes around the periods of the two equinoxes as compared to the errors observed during other periods. Qualitative and quantitative correlations are established between the ionospheric scintillation phenomenon and the occurrence of errors. Strong time and geographic cause-and-effect relationships are established by determining the statistical correlation between scintillation indices and bit error rates. Detailed analyses of the AGC fading statistics and the fine grain error statistics, such as the block-error distribution and the bit-error autocorrelation function, establish the strong correlation between deep fades and their effects on the burst error structure associated with the transionospheric channel and the communication receiver being employed.

Blank, H. A.↗

Simulation studies of the application of SEASAT data in weather and state of sea forecasting models

The design and analysis of SEASAT simulation studies in which the error structure of conventional analyses and forecasts is modeled realistically are presented. The development and computer implementation of a global spectral ocean wave model is described. The design of algorithms for the assimilation of theoretical wind data into computers and for the utilization of real wind data and wave height data in a coupled computer system are presented.

Cardone, V. J.↗

Regression techniques for oceanographic parameter retrieval using space-borne microwave radiometry

Variations of conventional multiple regression techniques are applied to the problem of remote sensing of oceanographic parameters from space. The techniques are specifically adapted to the scanning multichannel microwave radiometer (SMRR) launched on the Seasat and Nimbus 7 satellites to determine ocean surface temperature, wind speed, and atmospheric water content. The retrievals are studied primarily from a theoretical viewpoint, to illustrate the retrieval error structure, the relative importances of different radiometer channels, and the tradeoffs between spatial resolution and retrieval accuracy. Comparisons between regressions using simulated and actual SMMR data are discussed; they show similar behavior.

Hofer, R.↗

Active wavefront correction in large telescopes

Astronomical progress with the MMT telescope, which attains high-resolution imaging by partial compensation for atmospheric distortion, is discussed. The small tertiary and beam combiner mirrors at the MMT bring six images to a common focus, where there is a TV system for acquisition and guiding. Individual image positions can be controlled by stepper motors driving actuators on the secondaries, each step moving an image 0.05 arc seconds in the focal plane. The instrument's correction for image jiggle due to atmospheric turbulence and drift of the relative positions of the images due to gravitational and thermal effects on the structure are described. A scheme for correcting residual structural errors is discussed. It appears that the telescope can work to about the 17th visual magnitude. For faint sky limited objects comparable performance would require a perfectly rigid single mirror of the same aperture to have 50 percent more collecting area and cost at least 1.5 times more.

Angel, J. R. P.↗