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Astrophysics Milestones for Pulsar Timing Array Gravitational-wave Detection

The NANOGrav Collaboration reported strong Bayesian evidence for a common-spectrum stochastic process in its12.5 yr pulsar timing array data set, with median characteristic strain amplitude at periods of a year of A(yr) = 1.92(+0.75,-0.55) x 10^(-15). However, evidence for the quadrupolar Hellings & Downs interpulsar correlations, which are characteristic of gravitational-wave signals, was not yet significant. We emulate and extend the NANOGrav data set, injecting a wide range of stochastic gravitational-wave background(GWB)signals that encompass a variety of amplitudes and spectral shapes, and quantify three key milestones.(I)Given the amplitude measured in the 12.5 yr analysis and assuming this signal is a GWB, we expect to accumulate robust evidence of an interpulsar-correlated GWB signal with 15–17 yr of data, i.e., an additional 2–5 yr from the 12.5 yr data set.(II)At the initial detection, we expect a fractional uncertainty of 40% on the power-law strain spectrum slope, which is sufficient to distinguish a GWB of supermassive black hole binary origin from some models predicting more exotic origins.(III)Similarly, the measured GWB amplitude will have an uncertainty of 44% upon initial detection, allowing us to arbitrate between some population models of supermassive black hole binaries. In addition, power-law models are distinguishable from those having low-frequency spectral turnovers once 20 yr of data are reached. Even though our study is based on the NANOGrav data, we also derive relations that allow for a generalization to other pulsar timing array data sets. Most notably, by combining the data of individual arrays into the International Pulsar Timing Array, all of these milestones can be reached significantly earlier.

Nihan S. Pol↗

Binary Black Holes, Accretion Disks and Relativistic Jets: Photocenters of Nearby AGN and Quasars

One of the most challenging questions in astronomy today is to understand the origin, structure, and evolution of the central engines in the nuclei of quasars and active galaxies (AGNs). The favoured theory involves the activation of relativistic jets from the fueling of a supermassive black hole through an accretion disk. In some AGN an outer optically thick, dusty torus is seen orbiting the black hole system. This torus is probably related to an inner accretion disk - black hole system that forms the actual powerhouse of the AGN. In radio-loud AGN two oppositely-directed radio jets are ejected perpendicular to the torus/disk system. Although there is a wealth of observational data on AGN, some very basic questions have not been definitively answered. The Space Interferometry Mission (SIM) will address the following three key questions about AGN. 1) Does the most compact optical emission from an AGN come from an accretion disk or from a relativistic jet? 2) Does the separation of the radio core and optical photocenter of the quasars used for the reference frame tie, change on the timescales of their photometric variability, or is the separation stable at the level of a few microarcseconds? 3) Do the cores of galaxies harbor binary supermassive black holes remaining from galaxy mergers? It is not known whether such mergers are common, and whether binaries would persist for a significant time.

Wehrle, Ann E.↗

Discovering new forces with gravitational waves from supermassive black holes

Supermassive black hole binary mergers generate a stochastic gravitational wave background detectable by pulsar timing arrays. While the amplitude of this background is subject to significant uncertainties, the frequency dependence is a robust prediction of general relativity. Here we show that the effects of new forces beyond the Standard Model can modify this prediction and introduce unique features into the spectral shape. In particular, we consider the possibility that black holes in binaries are charged under a new long-range force, and we find that pulsar timing arrays are capable of robustly detecting such forces. Supermassive black holes and their environments can acquire charge due to high-energy particle production or dark sector interactions, making the measurement of the spectral shape a powerful test of fundamental physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

General Relativistic Simulations of Magnetized Plasmas Around Merging Supermassive Black Holes

Coalescing supermassive black hole binaries are produced by the mergers of galaxies and are the most powerful sources of gravitational waves accessible to space-based gravitational observatories. Some such mergers may occur in the presence of matter and magnetic fields and hence generate an electromagnetic counterpart. In this paper we present the first general relativistic simulations of magnetized plasma around merging supermassive black holes using the general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic code Whisky. By considering different magnetic field strengths, going from non-magnetically dominated to magnetically dominated regimes, we explore how magnetic fields affect the dynamics of the plasma and the possible emission of electromagnetic signals. In particular we observe, total amplification of the magnetic field of approx 2 orders of magnitude which is driven by the accretion onto the binary and that leads to stronger electromagnetic signals than in the force-free regime where such amplifications are not possible.

Giacomazzo, Bruno↗

Tracking the moving optical photocenters of active galaxies: binary black holes, accretion disks and relativistic jets

We will use the astrometric capabilities of the Space Interferometry Mission to answer three key questions about active galactic nuclei: 1) Does the separation of the radio core and optical photocenter of quasars change on the same timescale as their photometric variability? 2) Does the most compact optical emission from an active galactic nucleus come from an accretion disk or from a relativistic jet? and 3) Do the cores of galaxies harbor binary supermassive black holes remaining from galaxy mergers?

astrometry↗

A Possible Tidal Disruption Event Candidate in the Black Hole Binary System of OJ 287

The BL Lacertae OJ 287 is a supermassive black hole binary system with complex physics of its irregular flares. During 2016 October–2017 April, a surprising outburst in the X-ray, UV, and optical bands was detected, while no variability was seen in the γ-ray light curve. During the outburst, the X-ray light curves were dominated by the soft X-rays, whose peak in luminosity was ~10 46 erg s -1 —more than 10 times higher than the mean level before the outburst—and a "softer-when-brighter" phenomenon was exhibited. These above phenomena have been reported by some previous works. The hardness ratio showed negligible evolution with flare time and soft X-ray luminosity. Critically, the luminosity of the soft X-rays decayed following a power law of $t$ -5/3 , which occurs in most tidal disruption events (TDEs), and a similar trend can be seen in the UV and optical bands during the soft X-ray declining period. Helium and oxygen narrow emission lines are strengthened prominently in the optical spectra of post outburst epochs, that could be attributed to the surrounding gas caused by TDE. In conclusion, we discuss three possible origins of the event, including the jet's precession, the aftereffects of the black hole–disk impaction, and the TDE. Our results show that the TDE is the more likely scenario to explain the outburst.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) Mission and Synergies with LISA and LIGO-Virgo

The Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) is a NASA space mission in study for launch in 2024. It has a 2.4 m telescope, wide-field IR instrument operating in the 0.7 - 2.0 micron range and an exoplanet imaging coronagraph instrument operating in the 400 - 1000 nm range. The observatory will perform galaxy surveys over thousands of square degrees to J=27 AB for dark energy weak lensing and baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and will monitor a few square degrees for dark energy SN Ia studies. It will perform microlensing observations of the galactic bulge for an exoplanet census and direct imaging observations of nearby exoplanets with a pathfinder coronagraph. The mission will have a robust and wellfunded guest observer program for 25% of the observing time. WFIRST will be a powerful tool for time domain astronomy and for coordinated observations with gravitational wave experiments. Gravitational wave events produced by mergers of nearby binary neutron stars (LIGO-Virgo) or extragalactic supermassive black hole binaries (LISA) will produce electromagnetic radiation that WFIRST can observe.

Wide-Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) Miss↗

Precision Measurement of Black Hole Binary Dynamics: Analyzing the LISA Data Stream

One of the richest potential sources of insight into fundamental physics that LISA will be capable of observing is the inspiral of supermassive black hole binaries (BHBs). However, the data analysis challenge presented by the LISA data stream is quite unlike the situation for present day gravitational wave detectors. In order to make the precision measurements necessary to achieve LISA's science goals, the BHB signal must be distinguished from a data stream that not only contains instrumental noise, but potentially thousands of other signals as well, so that the "background" we wish to separate out to focus on the BHB signal is likely to be highly nonstationary and nongaussian, as well as being of scientific interest in its own right. In addition, whereas the theoretical templates that we calculate in order to ultimately estimate the parameters can afford to be somewhat inaccurate and still be effective for present day and near future detectors, this is not the case for LISA, and extremely high fidelity of the theoretical templates for high signal-to-noise signals will be required to prevent theoretical errors from dominating the parameter estimates. NVe, will describe efforts in the community of LISA data analysts to address the challenges regarding the specific issue of BHB signals. These efforts include using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach with the freedom to model the BHB and the other signals present in the data stream simultaneously, rather than trying to remove other signals and risk biasing the remaining data. The Mock LISA Data Challenge is a community of LISA scientists who generate rounds of simulated LISA noise with increasingly difficult signal content, and invite the LISA data analysis community to exercise their methods, or develop new methods, in an attempt to extract the parameters for the signals embedded in the mock data. In addition to practical approaches such ,is this to assess the level of parameter accuracy, one can apply the Fisher matrix formalism to assess both the statistical errors from noise and the theoretical errors

McWilliams, Sean T.↗

Spikey: self-lensing flares from eccentric SMBH binaries

Here, we examine the light curves of two quasars, motivated by recent suggestions that a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) can exhibit sharp lensing spikes. We model the variability of each light curve as due to a combination of two relativistic effects: the orbital relativistic Doppler boost and gravitational binary self-lensing. In order to model each system, we extend previous Doppler plus self-lensing models to include eccentricity. The first quasar is identified in optical data as a binary candidate with a 20-yr period (Ark 120), and shows a prominent spike. For this source, we rule out the lensing hypothesis and disfavour the Doppler-boost hypothesis due to discrepancies in the measured versus recovered values of the binary mass and optical spectral slope. The second source, which we nickname Spikey, is the rare case of an active galactic nucleus identified in Kepler’s high-quality, high-cadence photometric data. For this source, we find a model, consisting of a combination of Doppler modulation and a narrow symmetric lensing spike, consistent with an eccentric SMBHB with a mass of $M_{\text{tot}} = 3\times 10^{7} {\, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }}$, rest-frame orbital period T = 418 d, eccentricity e = 0.5, and seen at an inclination of 8° from edge-on. This interpretation can be tested by monitoring Spikey for periodic behaviour and recurring flares in the next few years. In preparation for such monitoring, we present the first X-ray observations of this object taken by the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetically Arrested Circumbinary Accretion Flows

Abstract Binary systems with comparable masses and a surrounding accretion disk can accrete gas through spiral accretion streams penetrating the central cavity formed by tidal interactions. Using three-dimensional Newtonian magnetohydrodynamics simulations, we investigate the possibility of a magnetically arrested accretion flow through the cavity. Rather than solely continuously feeding the binary through spiral accretion streams, the accretion is regulated by the strong magnetic field inside the cavity. Transport of mass and angular momentum onto the binary then proceeds largely periodically in magnetic flux eruption episodes. The ejected flux tubes carry angular momentum outward and away from the binary, inject hot plasma into the disk, and can launch flares. This likely intermittent scenario could have potential implications for the emission signatures of supermassive black hole binaries and shed light onto the role magnetic fields play in the binary’s orbital evolution.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗