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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Marine Alternative Fuel Pricing, Supply, and Demand

The International Maritime Organization low sulfur fuel rules and greenhouse gas-reduction strategy may create a significant perturbation to global refinery operations, impacting volumes and prices of marine fuel globally and within the United States and incentivizing the transition to alternative fuel use. The goals of this project are to (1) enhance understanding of how very low-sulfur fuel-primarily fuel oil and diesel-and low carbon fuel requirements and promising biofuel processes will affect the marine fuel supply chain; and (2) explore how these perturbations interact with and impact indicators such as pricing, number of trips, and demand behavior, along with the potential to meet low sulfur and carbon fuel demand with biofuel supply chains, (3) merge innovative thinking in the area of marine fuels within research centers of DOE (NREL) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (Volpe). These goals will be accomplished through the combination of detailed refinery, marine fuel burn, system dynamics, and geospatially explicit linear programming models.

biofuel↗
NASA NTRS1978

Electric energy demand and supply prospects for California

A recent history of electricity forecasting in California is given. Dealing with forecasts and regulatory uncertainty is discussed. Graphs are presented for: (1) Los Angeles Department of Water and Power and Pacific Gas and Electric present and projected reserve margins; (2) California electricity peak demand forecast; and (3) California electricity production.

Jones, H. G. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Temporal complementarity of marine renewables with wind and solar generation: Implications for GB system benefits

Wave and tidal energy have the potential to provide benefits to power systems with high proportions of stochastic renewable generation. This is particularly applicable with wind and solar photovoltaics, as the offsetting of these renewable resources results in more reliable renewable generation. This study utilises ten metrics to quantify the temporal complementarity and supply-demand balancing requirements of the energy mix in Great Britain, to investigate the potential magnitude of these system benefits. Wave and tidal generation profiles are created using historical resource data and hydrodynamic models. The results show that the inclusion of wave and tidal generation creates a renewable energy mix which is more available under multiple conditions: throughout a year of operation; at times of peak demand; for multiple consecutive hourly time periods; and at times when wind and solar generation are not available. Three regional case studies also show that the inclusion of marine energy allows for improved regional supply-demand matching, reducing instances of energy shortage and excess and potentially relieving transmission congestion at particularly constrained locations within GB. Finally, the implications of these findings are discussed in terms of GB wholesale market operation, system balancing and system security.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

H2@Scale Hydrogen Economic Potential Supply and Demand Locations

This data release provides estimates of hydrogens economic potential for possible hydrogen applications and production technologies by geographic location for various scenarios, as described in "The Technical and Economic Potential of the H2@Scale Concept within the United States". We define the economic potential as the quantity of hydrogen at an equilibrium price at which suppliers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy the same quantity of hydrogen.

alternative energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

A country-scale green energy-water-hydrogen nexus: Jordan as a case study

Many developing countries suffer from a shortage of clean energy-water production, causing significant dependency on imported fossil fuel to meet the local energy and freshwater demands. Furthermore, when planning a 100 % renewable energy system (RES) to match the energy demand on an hourly basis, the RES is usually oversized. Hence, unavoidable large amounts of excess energy would be generated during hours of high production, low demand, and fully charged energy storage systems (ESSs). Hence, using Jordan as a case study, this work proposes a novel integrated system of wind, solar photovoltaic (PV), and lithium-ion ESS to match 100 % of the country's energy demand while using the excess generated power to drive reverse osmosis water desalination plants to match the demand of freshwater as well. Furthermore, the remaining excess energy is used for producing green hydrogen. A techno-economic optimizer was developed to show that this concept is indeed feasible. Here, the model was used to scan Jordan for the fitting sites of the highest demand-supply matching and the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), simultaneously. Three different integration scenarios are presented, namely PV-ESS, wind-ESS, and hybrid PV-wind-ESS RESs. The hybrid system showed the best performance, especially compared to the wind-ESS RES, in terms of total installed capacity (33.37 GW), LCOE (0.0492 USD/kWh), specific water cost (0.3629 USD/m 3 ), and energy and water demand-supply fractions (99.47 and 96.16 %, respectively). Storing desalinated water in natural aquifers was found to be a favorable option to enhance the performance of the three systems, where stored water by the end of the year was sufficient to cover the freshwater requirements for several following years. Finally, the remaining excess energy is used to produce green hydrogen with an annual production of up to 1.37 million tons and a specific cost down to 1.08 USD/kg.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Supply and Demand Drivers of Global Hydrogen Deployment in the Transition toward a Decarbonized Energy System

The role of hydrogen in energy system decarbonization is being actively examined by the research and policy communities. We evaluate the potential ‘hydrogen economy’ in global climate change mitigation scenarios using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). We consider major hydrogen production methods in conjunction with delivery options to understand how hydrogen infrastructure affects its deployment. We also consider a rich set of hydrogen end-use technologies and vary their costs to understand how demand technologies affect deployment. We find that the availability of hydrogen transmission and distribution infrastructure primarily affects the hydrogen production mix, particularly the share produced centrally versus onsite, whereas assumptions about end-use technology primarily affect the scale of hydrogen deployment. In effect, hydrogen can be a distributed energy vector, enabled by onsite renewable electrolysis and, to a lesser extent, by onsite industrial production using natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). While the share of hydrogen in final energy is small relative to the share of other major energy carriers in our scenarios, hydrogen enables decarbonization in difficult-to-electrify end uses such as industrial high-temperature heat. Its contribution to greenhouse gas mitigation increases as the climate objective is tightened.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Retrospective Analog Year Analyses Using NASA Satellite Data to Improve USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

The USDA World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB) is responsible for monitoring weather and climate impacts on domestic and foreign crop development. One of WAOB's primary goals is to determine the net cumulative effect of weather and climate anomalies on final crop yields. To this end, a broad array of information is consulted, including maps, charts, and time series of recent weather, climate, and crop observations; numerical output from weather and crop models; and reports from the press, USDA attach s, and foreign governments. The resulting agricultural weather assessments are published in the Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, to keep farmers, policy makers, and commercial agricultural interests informed of weather and climate impacts on agriculture. Because both the amount and timing of precipitation significantly affect crop yields, WAOB often uses precipitation time series to identify growing seasons with similar weather patterns and help estimate crop yields for the current growing season, based on observed yields in analog years. Historically, these analog years are visually identified; however, the qualitative nature of this method sometimes precludes the definitive identification of the best analog year. Thus, one goal of this study is to derive a more rigorous, statistical approach for identifying analog years, based on a modified coefficient of determination, termed the analog index (AI). A second goal is to compare the performance of AI for time series derived from surface-based observations vs. satellite-based measurements (NASA TRMM and other data).

Teng, William↗
DOE OSTI2021

Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the COVID-19 pandemic. While some consequences such as food waste are directly caused by the disruption due to supply chain inefficiency, others are indirectly caused by a change in consumer’s preferences. As a result, evaluating food supply chain resilience is a difficult task. With an attempt to understand impacts of demand on the food supply chain, we developed an agent-based model based on the case of Idaho’s potato supply chain. Results showed that not only the magnitude but also the timing of the demand shock will have different impacts on various stakeholders of the supply chain. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, the model helps explain why food waste and shortages may occur with dramatic shifts in consumer demand. Second, this paper provides a new angle on evaluating the various mitigation strategies and policy responses to disruptions beyond COVID-19.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementational Aspects for the Characterization of Low-Inertia in Power Systems

The replacement of conventional generating units with non-conventional renewable energy resources impacts the stability of the power system. While the general goal of supplying demand could be achieved from both generation resources, inverter-based energy resources are different from traditional synchronous machines in the sense that they do not inherently provide inertia to the system. The latter obviously worsen the system ability to maintain the balance between supply and demand after certain contingencies such as generator outages. With high integration of renewable-based generation resources, there is a reduction in total system inertia, which could lead to systems with less time to react for frequency restoration in case of such unexpected unit failures. While conceptually it is true, there is a missing gap in the field of power system stability community in terms of test-bed power systems for characterizing low-inertia conditions. In this paper, a framework for low-inertia power systems is presented. The purpose of the test-bed is to establish an environment for testing and conducting research on power systems experiencing low-inertia issues. The frequency nadir, the rate of change of frequency, and the under-frequency load shedding scheme are used as a measure of the healthiness of power grids.

Baquedano-Aguilar, Mario D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Long-term hydro-economic analysis tool for evaluating global groundwater cost and supply: Superwell v1.1

Abstract. Groundwater plays a key role in meeting water demands, supplying over 40 % of irrigation water globally, with this role likely to grow as water demands and surface water variability increase. A better understanding of the future role of groundwater in meeting sectoral demands requires an integrated hydro-economic evaluation of its cost and availability. Yet substantial gaps remain in our knowledge and modeling capabilities related to groundwater availability, recharge, feasible locations for extraction, extractable volumes, and associated extraction costs, which are essential for large-scale analyses of integrated human–water system scenarios, particularly at the global scale. To address these needs, we developed Superwell, a physics-based groundwater extraction and cost accounting model that operates at sub-annual temporal and at the coarsest 0.5° (≈50 km × 50 km) gridded spatial resolution with global coverage. The model produces location-specific groundwater supply–cost curves that provide the levelized cost to access different quantities of available groundwater. The inputs to Superwell include recent high-resolution hydrogeologic datasets of permeability, porosity, aquifer thickness, depth to water table, recharge, and hydrogeological complexity zones. It also accounts for well capital and maintenance costs, as well as the energy costs required to lift water to the surface. The model employs a Theis-based scheme coupled with an amortization-based cost accounting formulation to simulate groundwater extraction and quantify the cost of groundwater pumping. The result is a spatiotemporally flexible, physically realistic, economics-based model that produces groundwater supply–cost curves. We show examples of these supply–cost curves and the insights that can be derived from them across a set of scenarios designed to explore model outcomes. The supply–cost curves produced by the model show that most (90 %) nonrenewable groundwater in storage globally is extractable at costs lower than USD 0.57 m−3, while half of the volume remains extractable at under USD 0.108 m−3. The global unit cost is estimated to range from a minimum of USD 0.004 m−3 to a maximum of USD 3.971 m−3. We also demonstrate and discuss examples of how these cost curves could be used by linking Superwell's outputs with other models to explore coupled human–environmental system challenges, such as water resources planning and management, or broader analyses of multisectoral feedbacks.

Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. Here, the climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. -27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

High Assay Low Enriched Uranium - A material in demand and the supply efforts underway

The presentation briefly describes the HALEU demand, sources of supply, & work underway @ INL to meet some of the demand. It highlights HALEU recovery from EBR-II, process enhancements including recasting via multi tier drip cast crucible method to produce reduced dose and reduced physical size uranium ingots referred to as regulus. Includes additional polishing, to improve applicability to meeting HALEU needs and briefly touches on innovative recycling concepts under development (i.e. Zircex). HALEU enables reactors of reduced size, provides for increased fuel efficiency and longer core life, all of which contribute to less waste generation. Supplying HALEU from recycled material has the potential for further reductions in waste generation through via reductions in SNF disposition.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impacts of Climate Change on Energy Systems in Global and Regional Scenarios

A growing number of studies report the impact of climate change on the supply, demand, transport, and cost of energy. However, there is lack of comprehensive overview and understanding of climate change impacts on energy across technologies and scales. Here, we conduct a systematic assessment of results from 186 papers on potential impacts of climate change on energy. Results show that increased cooling demand and decreased heating demand is anticipated globally. Similarly, increases in bio-energy and hydro power and a possible decrease in thermal electricity supply is projected. Overall changes in heating and cooling demand, increased thermal cooling, and reduced hydropower supply in Europe, India and Latin America are projected 35 at the regional scale. Furthermore, our review revealed that studies use a wide range of inconsistent methods and data sources. To move forward, the study proposes a consistent multi-model assessment framework for a comprehensive understanding of climate impacts on energy.

Yalew, Seleshi G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Infrared transmissive concentrated photovoltaics for coupling solar electric energy conversion to solar thermal energy utilization

The use of photovoltaic (PV) cells to convert solar energy to electricity is becoming increasingly prevalent; however, there are still significant limitations associated with the widespread adoption of PV cells for electricity needs. There is a clear need for a high efficiency solar power system that supplies electricity at a competitive cost and that provides for an on-demand supply of electricity as well as energy storage. By combining aspects of concentrated solar power and concentrated photovoltaics, the present invention provides a device that enables the conversion of sunlight to electricity at very high efficiencies and that enables the transmission of thermal energy to heat storage devices for later use. The disclosed device enables transmissive CPV through the use of a multijunction PV cell mounted on a transparent base. The use of a multijunction cell allows for highly efficient absorption of light above the bandgap of the lowest bandgap subcell. The transparent base permits transmission of a high percentage of the remaining light below the bandgap of the lowest bandgap subcell. The present invention also discloses a method of generating electricity through the use of a transmissive CPV device. Sunlight is concentrated onto one or more surfaces of the device. High energy light is absorbed by a multijunction PV cell and converted directly to electricity, while low energy light is transmitted through the device into a thermal storage device, which may then be coupled to a heat engine to generate dispatchable electricity.

Escarra, Matthew David↗
DOE OSTI2023

Envisioning the Future Renewable and Resilient Energy Grids—A Power Grid Revolution Enabled by Renewables, Energy Storage, and Energy Electronics

Today’s power grids are facing tremendous challenges because of the ever-increasing power demand, system complexity, infrastructure cost, knowledge base, and policy and regulatory issues to achieve supply–demand power balance and resiliency with respect to more frequent extreme weather events and cyberattacks. It is particularly challenging when the transition toward 100% intermittent renewable energy sources is considered. Many countries are calling for building up more transmission and distribution lines to increase power delivery capacities. This article is an attempt to answer two urgent questions: Is more transmission and distribution infrastructure really needed to meet the increasing power demand? What kind of future grid infrastructure should we envision and build? This article attempts to answer these questions and proposes the concept of community-centric asynchronous renewable and resilient energy grids. By clearly differentiating the concepts of grid resilience and reliability, the importance of building resilient power electronics’ devices and robust system-level control algorithms to achieve 100% renewable energy integrated resilient grids is presented. To identify the shortcomings and propose advancements, power electronics’ technologies are categorized using the proposed concepts of natural source frequencies (NSf), energy storage, direct energy conversion/control and fault protection (DeCaFp), and high-efficiency energy consumption and buffering (heECaB) technology. The ability of networked microgrids to greatly reduce power outages and power system restoration time is demonstrated by leveraging robust decentralized and centralized control algorithms, identified through a comprehensive literature review. Future research areas are proposed to further enhance grid stability, controllability, cybersecurity, and protection against faults in the presence of 100% renewable sources by leveraging the advanced capabilities of NSf, DeCaFp, and heECaB devices and system-level control algorithms.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2011

Potential Effects of Health Care Policy Decisions on Physician Availability

Many regions in America are experiencing downward trends in the number of practicing physicians and the number of available physician hours, resulting in a worrisome decrease in the availability of health care services. Recent changes in American health care legislation may induce a rapid change in the demand for health care services, which in turn will result in a new supply-demand equilibrium . In this paper we develop a system dynamics model linking physician availability to health care demand and profitability. We use this model to explore scenarios based on different initial conditions and describe possible outcomes for a range of different policy decisions.

Garcia, Christopher↗
DOE OSTI2020

Q3/Q4 2019 Solar Industry Update

This presentation reviews the major trends that occurred in the solar industry in the Q3 and Q4 of 2019. Major topics of focus will be global and U.S. supply & demand, module & system price, investment trends, and updates on U.S. government programs supporting the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗