Results for “TCs” — Page 2

DOE OSTI2023

AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-uniform Gas Gaps

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a three-dimensional finite element thermal model, which is subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty due to the nub-to-shell clearance caused by a design error of AGR-5/6/7 capsules. The thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for six different days during the irradiation for Capsules 1 and 2. The analysis varied the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error of the residuals (measured minus calculated) for the operational thermocouples (TCs). From these results, the following conclusions were made: (1) The holder offsets led to slightly lower average temperatures but wider temperature variations (lower minimum and higher peak fuel temperatures) for both Capsule 1 and Capsule 2. (2) During earlier cycles (162A–164B), when numerous TCs were still operational, the best-fit offset distance varied over a specific range for both the top and bottom ([0.002–0.0035 in.] for Capsule 1 and [0.003-0.004 in] for Capsule 2). In contrast, the offset azimuthal direction varied widely, especially for the offset at the bottom of the Capsule 1 holder. This is because holder movement was somewhat constrained at the top of Capsule 1 by the TC leads running through the capsule head and into the holder and by the through tubes in Capsule 2, but the Capsule 1 bottom did not have this type of constraint. (3) During later cycles, when all TCs failed, applying the maximum possible offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest direction for both the top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1557? in Capsule 1 (i.e., a 135? increase from 1422? with zero offset on September 20, 2019 (166A)); the maximum offset of 0.0068 in. to the south for both top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1110°C in Capsule 2 on April 20, 2020 (i.e., a 116? increase from 994? with zero offset (168A)). High peak fuel temperatures in Capsule 1 during Cycle 166A could be the cause of massive particle failure near the end of this cycle. (4) Even though the highest temperature at the tip of Type-N TCs, such as TC-1-7, slightly exceeded 1000?, the temperature along the TC wire reached as high as 1335? assuming an offset of 0.006 in. in the northwest of Capsule 1 holder near the end of Cycle 166A. This temperature significantly exceeds the temperature threshold at which TC degradation is expected to occur, ultimately contributing to considerable particle failures in Capsule 1. For eight Type-N TCs in Capsule 2, the peak TC line temperature was much lower (i.e., 1029°C for TC-2-5), assuming maximum offset of 00068 in. to the south during cycle 168A.

advanced gas reactors↗

DOE OSTI2023

AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-uniform Gas Gaps

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a three-dimensional finite element thermal model, which is subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty due to the nub-to-shell clearance caused by a design error of AGR-5/6/7 capsules. The thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for six different days during the irradiation for Capsules 1 and 2. The analysis varied the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error of the residuals (measured minus calculated) for the operational thermocouples (TCs). From these results, the following conclusions were made: (1) The holder offsets led to slightly lower average temperatures but wider temperature variations (lower minimum and higher peak fuel temperatures) for both Capsule 1 and Capsule 2. (2) During earlier cycles (162A–164B), when numerous TCs were still operational, the best-fit offset distance varied over a specific range for both the top and bottom ([0.002–0.0035 in.] for Capsule 1 and [0.003-0.004 in] for Capsule 2). In contrast, the offset azimuthal direction varied widely, especially for the offset at the bottom of the Capsule 1 holder. This is because holder movement was somewhat constrained at the top of Capsule 1 by the TC leads running through the capsule head and into the holder and by the through tubes in Capsule 2, but the Capsule 1 bottom did not have this type of constraint. (3) During later cycles, when all TCs failed, applying the maximum possible offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest direction for both the top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1557? in Capsule 1 (i.e., a 135? increase from 1422? with zero offset on September 20, 2019 (166A)); the maximum offset of 0.0068 in. to the south for both top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1110°C in Capsule 2 on April 20, 2020 (i.e., a 116? increase from 994? with zero offset (168A)). High peak fuel temperatures in Capsule 1 during Cycle 166A could be the cause of massive particle failure near the end of this cycle. (4) Even though the highest temperature at the tip of Type-N TCs, such as TC-1-7, slightly exceeded 1000?, the temperature along the TC wire reached as high as 1335? assuming an offset of 0.006 in. in the northwest of Capsule 1 holder near the end of Cycle 166A. This temperature significantly exceeds the temperature threshold at which TC degradation is expected to occur, ultimately contributing to considerable particle failures in Capsule 1. For eight Type-N TCs in Capsule 2, the peak TC line temperature was much lower (i.e., 1029°C for TC-2-5), assuming maximum offset of 00068 in. to the south during cycle 168A.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Timelike Compton Scattering from a longitudinally polarised target with CLAS12 at Jefferson Lab

Explorations into the internal dynamics of hadrons are constantly evolving, and the requirement for experimental results to verify theoretical models of hadron structure is paramount. A key area in this field is the study of Generalised Parton Distributions (GPDs), which are functions used to model the momenta of quarks and gluons within hadrons, and the methods to access GPDs experimentally. One such scattering process that allows access to these is Timelike Compton Scattering. TCS complements existing Deeply Virtual Compton Scattering experiments and allows investigation into the universality of GPDs through access to the real and imaginary parts of the parton helicity independent GPD Hq via beam spin asymmetries (BSA), and it provides novel access to the real and imaginary parts of the parton helicity dependent GPD ˜Hq through target polarisation asymmetries (TSA). This thesis work presents a comparative study with the first published BSA for TCS at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab), alongside a first time extraction of a Target Spin Asymmetry with the Summer 2022 data taking run. JLab hosts the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) which provides a 12 GeV electron beam to four experimental halls. Hall-B contains the CEBAF Large Acceptance Spectrometer, which took data across three run periods on a longitudinally polarised NH3 and ND3 fixed target from 2022-2023, to extract measurements of electron-proton scattering, from which a TCS signal could be extracted. The thesis discusses work done to understand and eliminate contributions from the non-/low-polarised nuclear background, testing pre-established cuts to eliminate pion background from a dilepton (e+e-) final state and modifying them as needed for the new experimental run, and attempts to hone in on a clean TCS signal from which to extract the two asymmetry observables. A comparison with existing BSA results was performed; however, the statistical errors are too large to draw a significant conclusion as to whether there is agreement across each bin. More data is needed for a multidimensionally binned extraction. A proof of principle was achieved in the TSA measurements, with two out of four kinematic bins showing preliminary agreement in shape with theoretical values. Again, the errors are significant due to the contributions from the nuclear background. To support these conclusions, a further study was done, which takes into account an estimate of the asymmetries with the full available dataset (this thesis is based only on data taken in the summer set; at the time of writing processing was still being conducted for the final two datasets), as well as an estimate including additional future experiment days that were awarded in July 2024. Additional work was done on a secondary project exploring the feasibility of measuring TCS at the upcoming Electron Ion Collider, supporting the design proposal for the detector for the first interaction region and giving a positive outlook for the future of these types of measurements beyond JLab.

Gates, Kayleigh [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2025

AGR-5/6/7 Thermal Model with Non-uniform Gas Gaps

Fuel compact temperatures are a crucial factor in assessing the irradiation performance of tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. In the absence of direct measurement, fuel compact temperatures were calculated using a three-dimensional finite element thermal model, which is subject to simulation uncertainty. The most dominant factor in the uncertainty of calculated fuel temperatures is the gas gap uncertainty due to the nub-to-shell clearance caused by a design error of AGR-5/6/7 capsules. The thermal model was revised to examine the most probable graphite offset position for six different days during the irradiation for Capsules 1 and 2. The analysis varied the offset distance and azimuthal direction at both the top and bottom of the holder. The best-fit offset was estimated based on the minimum root mean square error of the residuals (measured minus calculated) for the operational thermocouples (TCs). From these results, the following conclusions were made: (1) The holder offsets led to slightly lower average temperatures but wider temperature variations (lower minimum and higher peak fuel temperatures) for both Capsule 1 and Capsule 2. (2) During earlier cycles (162A–164B), when numerous TCs were still operational, the best-fit offset distance varied over a specific range for both the top and bottom ([0.002–0.0035 in.] for Capsule 1 and [0.003-0.004 in] for Capsule 2). In contrast, the offset azimuthal direction varied widely, especially for the offset at the bottom of the Capsule 1 holder. This is because holder movement was somewhat constrained at the top of Capsule 1 by the TC leads running through the capsule head and into the holder and by the through tubes in Capsule 2, but the Capsule 1 bottom did not have this type of constraint. (3) During later cycles, when all TCs failed, applying the maximum possible offset of 0.006 in. to the northwest direction for both the top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1557? in Capsule 1 (i.e., a 135? increase from 1422? with zero offset on September 20, 2019 (166A)); the maximum offset of 0.0068 in. to the south for both top and bottom resulted in a calculated peak fuel temperature of 1110°C in Capsule 2 on April 20, 2020 (i.e., a 116? increase from 994? with zero offset (168A)). High peak fuel temperatures in Capsule 1 during Cycle 166A could be the cause of massive particle failure near the end of this cycle. (4) Even though the highest temperature at the tip of Type-N TCs, such as TC-1-7, slightly exceeded 1000?, the temperature along the TC wire reached as high as 1335? assuming an offset of 0.006 in. in the northwest of Capsule 1 holder near the end of Cycle 166A. This temperature significantly exceeds the temperature threshold at which TC degradation is expected to occur, ultimately contributing to considerable particle failures in Capsule 1. For eight Type-N TCs in Capsule 2, the peak TC line temperature was much lower (i.e., 1029°C for TC-2-5), assuming maximum offset of 00068 in. to the south during cycle 168A.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High‐Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

Abstract High‐resolution climate models (∼28 km grid spacing) can permit realistic simulations of tropical cyclones (TCs), thus enabling their investigation in relation to the climate system. On the global scale, previous works have demonstrated that the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5 presents a reasonable TC climatology under prescribed present‐day (1980–2005) forcing. However, for the Western North Pacific (WNP) region, known biases in simulated TC genesis frequency and location under‐represent the basin's dominant share in observations. This study addresses these model biases in WNP by evaluating WNP TCs in a decadal simulation, and exploring potential improvements through nudging experiments. Among the major environmental controls of TC genesis, the lack of mid‐level moisture is identified as the leading cause of the deficit in simulated WNP TC genesis over the Pacific Warm Pool. Subsequent seasonal experiments explore the effect of constraining the large‐scale environment on TC development by nudging WNP temperature field toward reanalysis at various strengths. Temperature nudging elicits a significant response in TC genesis and intensity development, as well as in moisture and convection over the Warm Pool. These responses are sensitive to the choice of nudging timescale. Overall, the nudging experiments demonstrate that improvements in the large‐scale environment can lead to improvements in simulated TCs, suggesting future model developments in relation to model physics. In this way, the potential improvements in model fidelity will contribute to the understanding of how the mean state of current or future climates may give rise to extremes such as TCs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Response to Surface Warming in Aquaplanet Simulations With Uniform Thermal Forcing

While many modeling studies have attempted to estimate how tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation is impacted by climate change, the multitude of analysis techniques and methodologies have resulted in varying conclusions. Simplified models may be able to help overcome this problem. Radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE) model simulations have been used in various configurations to study fundamental aspects of Earth's climate. While many RCE modeling studies have focused on TC genesis, intensification, and size, limited work has been done using RCE to study TC precipitation. Here, in this study, the response of TC precipitation to sea surface temperature (SST) change is analyzed in global Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) aquaplanet simulations run with Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project protocols, with the addition of planetary rotation. We expect that the insight gained about how TC precipitation responds to SST warming will help predict how TCs in the real world respond to climate change. In the CAM RCE simulations, the warmer SST simulations have less TCs on average, but the TCs tend to be larger in outer size and more intense. As simulation SST increases, more extreme precipitation rates occur within TCs, and more of the TC precipitation comes from these extreme rates. For extreme (99th percentile) TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity increases dominate the 8.6% per K increase, while TC outer size changes have little impact. For accumulated TC precipitation, SST, and TC intensity contributions are still the majority, but TC outer size changes also contribute to the 6.6% per K increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Influence of African Easterly Wave Suppression on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity in a Convection-Permitting Model

African easterly waves (AEWs) are strongly linked to Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on the synoptic timescale by serving as seedling disturbances for TC genesis. However, it is unclear whether climatological TC frequency is limited by AEWs. We investigated the impact of suppressing AEWs using a 3-member ensemble of convection-permitting regional model simulations, in which AEWs were either retained or removed through the lateral boundary conditions. Suppressing AEWs did not substantially change seasonal TC number, but did influence TC intensity, genesis time and location. Suppressing AEWs produced stronger TCs, shifted peak TC genesis from September to August, and reduced (increased) TC genesis in the eastern Atlantic (Gulf of Mexico). Without AEWs, TCs generated under more favorable large-scale atmospheric conditions. Furthermore, these results indicate that AEWs may not be reliable predictors of basin-wide seasonal TC frequency. However, simulations provide evidence that AEWs could influence the large-scale environment that is important for TCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Revisiting the Definition of Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones by Clustering the Initial Intensity and Inner‐Core Size

Abstract Rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) provides a great challenge in operational forecasting and contributes significantly to the development of major TCs. RI is commonly defined as an increase in the maximum sustained surface wind speed of at least a certain threshold within 24 hr. The most widely used threshold is 30 kt (15.4 m/s), which was determined statistically. Here we propose a new definition for RI by objectively clustering TCs using the intensification rate, initial intensity, and radius of the maximum wind speed (RMW). A group of 770 samples is separated at a threshold of 45 kt (23.2 m/s). The threshold is 40 kt (20.6 m/s) for the western North Atlantic, where TC size measurements are more reliable. Monte Carlo experiments demonstrate that the proposed threshold is robust even considering the uncertainty in RMW of as high as 30 km. We show that, when a TC undergoes RI, its maximum wind speed is approximately 60 ± 15 kt (30.9 ± 7.7 m/s) and the RMW is 45 ± 20 km. The new threshold outperforms the conventional threshold of 30 kt/24 hr in describing the bimodal distribution of lifetime maximum intensity and explaining the annual count of Category 5 TCs. This new definition provides a more physically based threshold and describes a more reliable representation of extreme events. Although more comparisons are needed for operational application, it is likely to be desirable for case‐based process studies and could provide a more valuable metric for TC intensification classification and research.

Li, Yi↗

DOE OSTI2021

Central American mountains inhibit eastern North Pacific seasonal tropical cyclone activity

Abstract The eastern North Pacific (ENP) has the highest density of tropical cyclones (TCs) on earth, and yet the controls on TCs, from individual events to seasonal totals, remain poorly understood. One effect that has not been fully considered is the unique geography of the Central American mountains. Although observational studies suggest these mountains can readily fuel individual TCs through dynamical processes, here we show that these mountains indeed play the opposite role on the seasonal timescale, hindering seasonal ENP TC activity by up to 35%. We found that these mountains significantly interrupt the abundant moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea to the ENP, limiting deep convection over the open ocean area where TCs preferentially occur. This study advances our fundamental understanding of ENP TC genesis mechanisms across the weather-to-climate timescales, and also highlights the importance of topography representation in improving the ENP regional climate simulations, as well as TC seasonal predictions and future projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An oceanic pathway for Madden–Julian Oscillation influence on Maritime Continent Tropical Cyclones

While the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been shown to affect tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide through its modulation of large-scale circulation in the atmosphere, little or no role for the ocean has been identified to date in this influence of MJO on TCs. Using observations and numerical model simulations, we demonstrate that MJO events substantially impact TCs over the Maritime Continent (MC) region through an oceanic pathway. While propagating across the MC region, MJO events cause significant sea surface cooling with an area-averaged value of about 0.35 ± 0.12 °C. Hence, TCs over the MC region immediately following the passage of MJO events encounter considerably cooler sea surface temperatures. Consequently, the enthalpy fluxes under the storms are reduced and the intensification rates decrease by more than 50% on average. These results highlight an important role played by the ocean in facilitating MJO-induced sub-seasonal variability in TC activity over the MC region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climatological analysis of tropical cyclone impacts on hydrological extremes in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States

Abstract Research efforts related to landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) and their hydrological impacts have focused mostly on the continental or regional scales, whereas many coastal management and infrastructure decisions are made at much finer spatial scales. In this context, this study aims to provide local-scale understandings of the climatological characteristics and hydrological impacts of TCs (from 1950 to 2019) over the Mid-Atlantic region defined as the Delaware River Basin (DRB) and Susquehanna River Basin (SRB). The climatological analysis is based on analyzing long-term, spatially distributed observational datasets of hurricane tracks, precipitation, and streamflows. Results suggest that, despite limited contribution of TCs to regional precipitation (<9%), TC is the dominant driver for extreme floods in the southern part of DRB (e.g. tributaries of the Christina River and lower Schuylkill River) and the southwestern portions of SRB (e.g. tributaries of the Lower Susquehanna and Junita River), where TC’s effect on drought alleviation is also comparatively higher. At the basin level, SRB is more susceptible to flooding associated with TCs and prone to drought relative to DRB; however, strong spatial variability of TC’s impact on hydrological extremes is observed within and across the basins. While the TC effect on flood/drought is negligible for the high-elevation, northern part of the region, TC increases the magnitude of the 100 year flood by up to 19.6% in DRB and 53.0% in SRB; the duration of short-term extreme hydrological drought is reduced by TC by up to 25.0% in SRB and 24.7% in DRB, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermocouples in Resistive and Induction Furnaces Operated in Strong Magnetic Fields

The thermomagnetic processing methods require an understanding of the in situ temperatures experienced by the workpieces. When commonly used thermocouples (TCs) are employed in induction furnaces, RF fields can contribute additional temperature uncertainties to the ones arising from the use of strong magnetic fields. Focusing on temperatures between 300 ° C and 1000 ° C produced by induction and resistive furnaces, the readings generated by Type-K TCs were contrasted to the ones produced by Type-S and Type-N sensors for magnetic fields up to 9 T. Overall, when comparing Type-K response to temperatures above 700 ° C in both zero field and high field ( ≤9 T), the differences amounted to less than 1% and when continuously measured has a linear relationship to the strength of the applied field. The relative invariance of Type-N and Type-S TCs was confirmed. In conclusion, these findings suggest that the use of TCs in high magnetic fields remains a viable option for applications, although the precision depends on the type used.

Tener, Zachary P. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗

DOE OSTI2021

Spontaneous Cyclogenesis without Radiative and Surface-Flux Feedbacks

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most intense and feared storms in the world. What physical processes lead to cyclogenesis remains the most mysterious aspect of TC physics. Here, we study spontaneous TC genesis in rotating radiative–convective equilibrium using cloud-resolving simulations over an f plane with constant sea surface temperature. Previous studies proposed that spontaneous TC genesis requires either radiative or surface-flux feedbacks. To test this hypothesis, we perform mechanism-denial experiments, in which we switch off both feedback processes in numerical simulations. We find that TCs can self-emerge even without radiative and surface-flux feedbacks. Although these feedbacks accelerate the genesis and impact the size of the TCs, TCs in the experiments without them can reach similar intensities as those in the control experiment. We show that TC genesis is associated with an increase in the available potential energy (APE) and that convective heating dominates the APE production. Overall, our result suggests that spontaneous TC genesis may result from a cooperative interaction between convection and circulation and that radiative and surface-flux feedbacks accelerate the process. Furthermore, we find that increasing the planetary rotation favors spontaneous TC genesis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Cyclone Wind Shear-Relative Asymmetry in Reanalyses

Abstract While tropical cyclones (TCs) are axisymmetric vortices to the first order, they often exhibit noteworthy structural asymmetries. These often result from environmental vertical wind shear, which tilts the vortex and induces a wavenumber 1 pattern in the circulation and precipitation fields. Reanalyses and climate models have improved in representing the TC structure and climatology, but their relatively coarse resolution and dependence on parameterized physics cast doubt on their ability to capture the asymmetric TC structure. We perform the most comprehensive process-oriented assessment of TC asymmetry to date in reanalyses. Specifically, we analyze the composite shear-relative TC structure in ERA5 and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which vary in their resolutions, physical parameterization suites, and data assimilation techniques. These structures are compared with aircraft reconnaissance radar observations. In agreement with the observations, the strongest tangential winds are usually found left-of-shear, while inner core rainfall, ascent, vortex tilt, and low-level inflow are favored directly downshear or in the downshear-left quadrant. Outer rainband convection generally peaks in the downshear-right quadrant. Thermodynamic asymmetries are also apparent, with anomalous low-level moisture right-of-shear, midlevel warmth in the upshear-right quadrant (uptilt), and cloud properties suggestive of a realistic precipitation life cycle from growth to fallout. We also decompose rainfall contributions from the convective parameterization and large-scale cloud schemes and highlight the roles of vorticity advection, buoyancy advection, and diabatic processes in driving asymmetric vertical motions in the inner core and outer rainband regions. Our results suggest that process-level studies of TC asymmetry and TC–wind shear interaction under future warming are viable using climate models. Significance Statement Asymmetries are common in tropical cyclones (TCs), influencing their intensity, track, and hazards. Vertical wind shear often plays a leading-order role in causing these asymmetries. It is uncertain how well asymmetric structures and processes are captured in reanalyses and global climate models (GCMs) with grid spacings of 0.25° and coarser. In this study, we first evaluate TC asymmetry in reanalyses, which have the benefit of being forced by observations. This helps to assess whether the resolutions associated with GCMs sufficiently capture asymmetric structures and processes and motivates upcoming work with free-running GCMs to study how TC asymmetry may change in a warming climate.

Carstens, Jacob D.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Thermocouple Testing in Support of the AGR-5/6/7 Experiment

This report documents thermocouple testing performed in IRC Lab C-15 over a period of seven years. This testing supported selection and characterization of the thermocouple set used in the AGR-5/6/7 experiment. The following summary was taken directly from the report. Temperature measurement is a challenging aspect of very high temperature irradiation experiments because commonly used high-temperature commercial thermocouples such as platinum-rhodium (Types S, R, and B) and tungsten-rhenium (Type C), suffer dramatic drift because of neutron-induced transmutation. As a result, these types of thermocouples, which are used routinely for industrial temperature measurements outside of reactors, are used only in very special circumstances for reactor experiments. Conversely, because of their low neutron cross-sections, Type N thermocouples are affected to only a limited extent by neutron irradiation. However, the use of these nickel-based thermocouples is limited when the temperature exceeds 1050°C due to drift arising from minor alloying elements migrating from the thermocouple's metal sheath to the thermoelements. This change in the composition of the thermo-elements results in significant decalibration of the signal. The issues described above were recognized during the early planning stages of the final AGR experiment (designated AGR-5/6/7), and a thermocouple furnace testing program was performed over a seven-year period (2014-2019, 2021) to first select and then characterize the best thermocouple set for the high temperature regions of the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation experiment. The calculated temperature range of the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was 600–1500°C. For temperatures below 1000°C standard Type N thermocouples were deemed adequate. The furnace testing campaign identified two thermocouple types suitable for measuring temperatures above 1000°C, a Mo/Nb thermocouple developed at INL called HTIR-TC, and a Type N thermocouple developed by Cambridge University (called herein Cambridge Type N), which featured a custom high nickel alloy sheath. One of the original goals of the furnace testing program was to identify a thermocouple capable of low drift operation near the peak temperature expected in AGR-5/6/7, i.e., about 1400°C. The HTIR-TC design appeared promising in this regard, however a manufacturing difficulty proved to be a barrier and instead the furnace testing focused on drift performance at 1250°C. The manufacturing difficulty was that the Nb sheaths of the HTIR-TCs experienced extreme embrittlement when heat treated at 1600°C or greater. Heat treatment is needed to stabilize the emf output of this TC type, and the higher the heat treatment temperature the higher the peak temperature of stable operation. Because of the sheath embrittlement the heat treatment temperature had to be lowered to 1450°C resulting in a stable operating temperature of about 1250°C. One of the successes of the furnace testing program was identification of a shortcoming in the heat treatment procedure that had been traditionally used in the production of HTIR-TCs. The shortcoming was that the entire heated length of the HTIR-TC sensor was not being heat treated, but rather only the part of the sensor expected to experience temperatures above 1000°C. The problem manifested itself when the thermocouples were removed from the heat treat furnace and placed in another furnace with a different geometry, their indicated temperatures would be widely scattered, but mostly in the negative direction. The solution was to heat treat the entire heated length of the sensor. Since the deepest immersion depth in the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was about 40 inches, a heat treatment length of 48 inches was used. After this change was implemented, thermocouples which were moved into a new environment with a different temperature profile (i.e., a different furnace), produced accurate temperature measurements. Although assembly of the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was completed in September of 2017 (and irradiation begun in 2018), furnace testing of thermocouples continued in 2018 and 2019. The main purpose of this testing was to establish very long-term drift characteristics of the HTIR and Cambridge Type N thermocouples installed in the experiment. Representative thermocouples from the same lots as those installed in the AGR-5/6/7 experiment were used. Additionally, thermocouples of different designs, (particularly variations on the HTIR-TC design) were "piggy-backed" on this testing program to provide insights for instrumenting future very high temperature irradiation experiments. This two-year testing program demonstrated that HTIR-TCs and Cambridge Type N TCs could operate at 1250°C for up to 10,000 hrs (and in some cases longer) while experiencing negative drifts on the order of 2-4°C/1000 hrs. This performance was considered acceptable given the extreme operating environment the sensors faced.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

A North Atlantic synthetic tropical cyclone tracks, intensity, and rainfall dataset

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) cause significant socio-economic damages to the US and Caribbean coastal regions annually, making it important to understand TC risk at the local-to-regional scales where their impacts are most prominent. However, the short length of the observed record and the substantial computational expense associated with high-resolution climate models make it difficult to assess TC risk using either approach. To overcome these challenges, we developed a database of synthetic TCs using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT). The database includes 50,000 synthetic TC tracks, along-track intensities and storm-induced precipitation. TC tracks generated in RAFT are in reasonable agreement with observations for spatial distribution of TC tracks and basin-scale distributions of TC translation speeds, lifetime maximum intensities and intensification rates. Also, spatial variations in coastal frequency and precipitation for landfalling TCs are well-reproduced in RAFT. In summary, the synthetic TC database based on RAFT provides a reasonable pathway for robust assessment of TC wind and rainfall risk for the US coastal regions and other areas affected by Atlantic TCs.

Xu, Wenwei↗

DOE OSTI2021

ClimateNet: an expert-labeled open dataset and deep learning architecture for enabling high-precision analyses of extreme weather

Abstract. Identifying, detecting, and localizing extreme weather events is a crucial first step in understanding how they may vary under different climate change scenarios. Pattern recognition tasks such as classification, object detection, and segmentation (i.e., pixel-level classification) have remained challenging problems in the weather and climate sciences. While there exist many empirical heuristics for detecting extreme events, the disparities between the output of these different methods even for a single event are large and often difficult to reconcile. Given the success of deep learning (DL) in tackling similar problems in computer vision, we advocate a DL-based approach. DL, however, works best in the context of supervised learning – when labeled datasets are readily available. Reliable labeled training data for extreme weather and climate events is scarce. We create “ClimateNet” – an open, community-sourced human-expert-labeled curated dataset that captures tropical cyclones (TCs) and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in high-resolution climate model output from a simulation of a recent historical period. We use the curated ClimateNet dataset to train a state-of-the-art DL model for pixel-level identification – i.e., segmentation – of TCs and ARs. We then apply the trained DL model to historical and climate change scenarios simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5.1) and show that the DL model accurately segments the data into TCs, ARs, or “the background” at a pixel level. Further, we show how the segmentation results can be used to conduct spatially and temporally precise analytics by quantifying distributions of extreme precipitation conditioned on event types (TC or AR) at regional scales. The key contribution of this work is that it paves the way for DL-based automated, high-fidelity, and highly precise analytics of climate data using a curated expert-labeled dataset – ClimateNet. ClimateNet and the DL-based segmentation method provide several unique capabilities: (i) they can be used to calculate a variety of TC and AR statistics at a fine-grained level; (ii) they can be applied to different climate scenarios and different datasets without tuning as they do not rely on threshold conditions; and (iii) the proposed DL method is suitable for rapidly analyzing large amounts of climate model output. While our study has been conducted for two important extreme weather patterns (TCs and ARs) in simulation datasets, we believe that this methodology can be applied to a much broader class of patterns and applied to observational and reanalysis data products via transfer learning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗