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DOE OSTI2020

Big Data and AI at DoE's Legacy Sites - 20546

More than 30 years have passed since DOE started the decommissioning of nuclear weapon complexes and the clean-up of soil and groundwater. All the sites have been collecting and archiving soil and groundwater monitoring datasets; particularly contaminant concentration time-series. These datasets provide unparalleled opportunities to understand the system behavior (including more fundamental hydrological and geochemical processes, the response to various perturbations, the long-term trend and environmental decay rate towards the regulatory limit). This understanding is critical for providing multiple lines of evidences that can support site closure. In this study, we explore the machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) applications to the long-term soil and groundwater management at DoE's legacy sites. ML can improve our understanding of the subsurface systems, which is critical for long-term monitoring and management of the sites, while AI can automate or support some of decision-making processes (e.g., anomaly detection, monitoring well placements). The particular focuses are to develop general algorithms to: (1) to identify distinct spatiotemporal patterns and to identify several groups that have similar temporal behaviors, using unsupervised clustering methods, (2) identify the different temporal scales of hydrological responses to climate perturbations by time-series analysis, and (3) reduce the number of monitoring wells by identifying the minimum sufficient number of wells to capture the heterogeneity of the groundwater contaminant plume and concentration distribution, using the Gaussian Process model. We demonstrate our methodology at the Savannah River Site F-Area. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

Into the UV: A Precise Transmission Spectrum of HAT-P-41b Using Hubble’s WFC3/UVIS G280 Grism

The ultraviolet–visible wavelength range holds critical spectral diagnostics for the chemistry and physics at work in planetary atmospheres. To date, time-series studies of exoplanets to characterize their atmospheres have relied on several combinations of modes on the Hubble Space Telescope’s STIS/COS instruments to access this wavelength regime. Here for the first time, we apply the Hubble WFC3/UVIS G280 grism mode to obtain exoplanet spectroscopy from 200 to 800 nm in a single observation. We test the G280 grism mode on the hot Jupiter HAT-P-41b over two consecutive transits to determine its viability for the characterization of exoplanet atmospheres. We obtain a broadband transit depth precision of 29–33 ppm and a precision of on average 200 ppm in 10 nm spectroscopic bins. Spectral information from the G280 grism can be extracted from both the positive and negative first-order spectra, resulting in a 60% increase in the measurable flux. Additionally, the first Hubble Space Telescope orbit can be fully utilized in the time-series analysis. We present detailed extraction and reduction methods for use by future investigations with this mode, testing multiple techniques. We find the results to be fully consistent with STIS measurements of HAT-P-41b from 310 to 800 nm, with the G280 results representing a more observationally efficient and precise spectrum. HAT-P-41b’s transmission spectrum is best fit with a model with T {sub eq} = 2091 K, high metallicity, and significant scattering and cloud opacity. With these first-of-their-kind observations, we demonstrate that WFC3/UVIS G280 is a powerful new tool to obtain UV–optical spectra of exoplanet atmospheres, adding to the UV legacy of Hubble and complementing future observations with the James Webb Space Telescope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Rapid QSTS Simulations for High-Resolution Comprehensive Assessment of Distributed PV

The rapid increase in penetration of distributed energy resources on the electric power distribution system has created a need for more comprehensive interconnection modeling and impact analysis. Unlike conventional scenario-based studies, quasi-static time-series (QSTS) simulations can realistically model time-dependent voltage controllers and the diversity of potential impacts that can occur at different times of year. However, to accurately model a distribution system with all its controllable devices, a yearlong simulation at 1-second resolution is often required, which could take conventional computers a computational time of 10 to 120 hours when an actual unbalanced distribution feeder is modeled. This computational burden is a clear limitation to the adoption of QSTS simulations in interconnection studies and for determining optimal control solutions for utility operations. The solutions we developed include accurate and computationally efficient QSTS methods that could be implemented in existing open-source and commercial software used by utilities and the development of methods to create high-resolution proxy data sets. This project demonstrated multiple pathways for speeding up the QSTS computation using new and innovative methods for advanced time-series analysis, faster power flow solvers, parallel processing of power flow solutions and circuit reduction. The target performance level for this project was achieved with year-long high-resolution time series solutions run in less than 5 minutes within an acceptable error.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-driven Detection and Early Prediction of Thermoacoustic Instability in a Multi-nozzle Combustor

Thermoacoustic instability (TAI) is a critical issue in modern lean-burn gas-turbine combustors, which is induced by a strong coupling between the resonant combustor acoustics and fluctuations in the heat release rate. This instability may lead to high-amplitude pressure waves that generate undesirable noise levels as well as fatigue stresses in mechanical structures of the combustor. The intense pressure fluctuations due to TAI may also cause large flow perturbations and possibly flow reversal that may lead to flame oscillations, flame liftoff, and even flame blow-out. Hence, there is a strong need for exercising control actions in a timely fashion to mitigate the TAI phenomena. Anomaly detection is an essential prerequisite to the design of a good controller and such a detector must be able to reliably predict a forthcoming TAI. To detect and predict the onset of a TAI from an ensemble of pressure time series, this paper investigates three data-driven methods: Fast Fourier transform (FFT), symbolic time series analysis (STSA), and hidden Markov modeling (HMM). The main focus of the paper is to make a comparative evaluation of these three anomaly detection methods for classification of the current regime of operation into stable and unstable categories as well as for real-time identification of precursors to impending instabilities with short-length time series of measured variables (e.g., pressure oscillations). Finally, the results, generated on experimental data from a multi-nozzle combustor apparatus, have been compared to evaluate the performance of FFT, STSA, and HMM methods for TAI analysis.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modeling interval trendlines: Symbolic singular spectrum analysis for interval time series

Abstract In this article we propose an extension of singular spectrum analysis for interval‐valued time series. The proposed methods can be used to decompose and forecast the dynamics governing a set‐valued stochastic process. The resulting components on which the interval time series is decomposed can be understood as interval trendlines, cycles, or noise. Forecasting can be conducted through a linear recurrent method, and we devised generalizations of the decomposition method for the multivariate setting. The performance of the proposed methods is showcased in a simulation study. We apply the proposed methods so to track the dynamics governing the Argentina Stock Market (MERVAL) in real time, in a case study over a period of turbulence that led to discussions of the government of Argentina with the International Monetary Fund.

de Carvalho, Miguel↗

DOE OSTI2024

Streamflow in the United States: Characteristics, trends, regime shifts, and extremes

Long-term streamflow observations contain essential information for understanding hydrological changes and managing water resources. A continental-scale dataset or analysis of temporal streamflow change is still lacking across hydrologic gauges in the Conterminous United States (CONUS). Here, we compiled 70 years of streamflow records from 1951 to 2021 at ~ 8000 hydrologic stations across the CONUS and characterized temporal trends, regime shifts, and extreme events using a Bayesian time series analysis algorithm. We found that the occurrences of sudden streamflow changes (e.g., regime shifts and extreme events) have been increasing with time across the CONUS. In addition, we derived 181 streamflow indicators that are valuable for hydrological and biological applications, such as the duration and frequency of high or low streamflow events. The Mississippi River Basin, especially the middle and lower parts, was a hot spot of high-frequency high-flow events. Overall, we anticipate the dataset generated here offers valuable information for understanding and quantifying changes in water resources across the CONUS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved Data Interpretation through Identification of Time Series Periodicity Changes

Analysis and interpretation of time series data is easiest when the data values occur at uniform intervals in time, but actual data may have differing data sampling frequencies, such as monthly and daily readings. Applying data analysis techniques, such as smoothing, to such a data set may not give a representative result between time segments. The ability to automatically distinguish time segments of differing data frequency would provide a means for applying data analysis independently to each segment, though a suitable blending at segment boundaries would be required. A method for detecting frequency changes was developed and applied to Gaussian and median smoothing of hydraulic head data from groundwater wells at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The process identifies time segments of high-frequency (daily) or low-frequency (greater than daily) data using adjusted-bandwidth Gaussian kernel density estimation and a threshold value, which are further refined to address small blocks of low-frequency data within larger blocks of high-frequency data. User-selectable levels of smoothing are then applied independently to the time segments prior to combining the segment results for a single smoothed data set. This time segment identification approach provides effective low- and high-frequency data separation, which provides a method to apply data analysis independently to each time segment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evolving physical and mechanical rock properties during exposure at Earth's surface

Rocks at Earth's surface experience progressive damage due to exposure to environmental conditions. Although environmental damage to rocks is recognized as being time-dependent, our quantitative understanding of its effects on physical and mechanical properties remains limited by field and laboratory studies constrained to short timescales. In this study, we aim to rigorously quantify how these properties evolve under longer natural environmental exposure spanning from the Holocene to the late Pleistocene. We conducted a ‘time series’ analysis of key physical and mechanical rock properties using multiple interior samples from 10 cogenetic granitoid boulders exposed for different amounts of time at two sites in Eastern California, USA. We find that over the late Pleistocene (~30 ka), rocks exhibit porosity increases of 40 ± 4 % and seismic velocity decreases of 7 ± 1 % at both sites. Similarly, over the same time period, rock tensile and compressive strengths declined by an average of 11 ± 4 %, and rock permeability increased on average by 104 ± 50 %. Microscopic analysis of thin sections of the same rocks indicates that microfracture density and intensity also progressively increased over the same timescales. These results suggest that time-dependent fracture propagation due to environmental exposure is likely a central contributor to the observed changes in rock properties. This study provides quantitative documentation that pronounced changes in the physical and mechanical properties of rock progressively occur within thousands of years of exposure.

Critical zone↗

DOE OSTI2022

2022 FORCE Development Status Update

Integrated energy systems (IESs) are essential for decarbonizing electricity and industrial sectors and fully exploiting these systems requires sophisticated planning, scheduling, and dispatching tools to maximize their socio-economic benefits. The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) is a tool suite developed at Idaho National Laboratory and is dedicated to making robust analyses of IESs easier for analysts and researchers. The report summarizes the improvements and updates to FORCE during the most recent development cycle. Particularly, we demonstrate improvements to user accessibility, stochastic time-series analysis, and vertical integration with the software tools provided in FORCE.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Identification and Online Updating of Dynamic Models for Demand Response of an Industrial Air Separation Unit

Demand-response operation of air separation units requires frequent changes in production rate(s), and scheduling calculations must explicitly consider process dynamics to ensure feasibility of the solutions. To this end, scale-bridging models (SBMs) approximate the scheduling-relevant dynamics of a process and its controller in a low-order representation. In contrast to previous works that have employed nonlinear SBMs, this paper proposes linear SBMs, developed using time-series analysis, to facilitate online scheduling computations. Using a year-long industrial dataset, we nd that compact linear SBMs are suitable approximations over typical scheduling horizons, but that their accuracies are unpredictable over time. We introduce a strategy for online updating of the SBMs, based on Kalman ltering schemes for online parameter estimation. The approach greatly improves the accuracy of SBM predictions and will enable the use of linear SBM-based demand-response scheduling in the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Con Connections: Detecting Fraud from Abstracts using Topological Data Analysis

In this paper we present a novel approach for identifying fraudulent papers from their titles and abstracts. The premise of the approach is that there are holes in the presentation of the approach and findings of fraudulent research papers. As an abstract is intended to highlight key features of the approach as well as important conclusions the authors seek to determine if the assumed existence of holes can be identified from analysis of abstracts alone. The data set considered is derived from papers sharing a single author with labels determined based on a formal linguistic analysis of the complete documents. To detect these logical and literary holes we utilize techniques from topological data analysis which summarizes data based on the presence of multi-dimensional, topological holes. We find that, in fact, topological features derived through a combination of techniques in natural language processing and time-series analysis allow for superior detection of the fraudulent papers than the natural language processing tools alone. Thus we conclude that the connections and holes present in the abstracts of research cons contributes to an ability to infer the scientific validity of the corresponding work.

Tymochko, Sarah J.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Vis-SAGA: Visual Analytics for Situational Awareness of Grid Anomalies: Preprint

We describe supporting near real-time situational awareness of the electric distribution system by visualizing novel data from voltage sensors deployed on existing broadband cable television network equipment. Our scalable web-based visual analytics platform supports interactive geospatial exploration, time-series analysis, and summarization of grid behavior during potentially anomalous events. The broadband cable television sensor network provides observability of the electrical distribution system at a higher local spatial resolution than is typically available to most utilities, revealing the operational state of the network and aiding in the detection of abnormal behaviors or deviations from expected patterns, particularly across electric utility service areas. We outline the design and development of interactive geospatial and time-series visualization components and the scalable data services that supply metadata, historical, and real-time streams of sensor data across the network. We evaluate our platform during periods of extreme weather, demonstrating its ability to assist in detecting patterns of operation that affect power availability, quality, resiliency, and service restoration.

cable television↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing residential PM 2.5 concentrations and infiltration factors with high spatiotemporal resolution using crowdsourced sensors

Building conditions, outdoor climate, and human behavior influence residential concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ). To study PM 2.5 spatiotemporal variability in residences, we acquired paired indoor and outdoor PM 2.5 measurements at 3,977 residences across the United States totaling >10,000 monitor-years of time-resolved data (10-min resolution) from the PurpleAir network. Time-series analysis and statistical modeling apportioned residential PM 2.5 concentrations to outdoor sources (median residential contribution = 52% of total, coefficient of variation = 69%), episodic indoor emission events such as cooking (28%, CV = 210%) and persistent indoor sources (20%, CV = 112%). Residences in the temperate marine climate zone experienced higher infiltration factors, consistent with expectations for more time with open windows in milder climates. Likewise, for all climate zones, infiltration factors were highest in summer and lowest in winter, decreasing by approximately half in most climate zones. Large outdoor–indoor temperature differences were associated with lower infiltration factors, suggesting particle losses from active filtration occurred during heating and cooling. Absolute contributions from both outdoor and indoor sources increased during wildfire events. Infiltration factors decreased during periods of high outdoor PM 2.5 , such as during wildfires, reducing potential exposures from outdoor-origin particles but increasing potential exposures to indoor-origin particles. Time-of-day analysis reveals that episodic emission events are most frequent during mealtimes as well as on holidays (Thanksgiving and Christmas), indicating that cooking-related activities are a strong episodic emission source of indoor PM 2.5 in monitored residences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evolution of Intent and Social Influence Networks and Their Significance in Detecting COVID-19 Disinformation Actors on Social Media

Online disinformation actors are those individuals or bots who disseminate false or misleading information over social media, with the intent to sway public opinion in the information domain towards harmful social outcomes. Quantification of the degree to which users post or respond intentionally versus under social influence, remains a challenge, as individuals or organizations operating the profile are foreshadowed by their online persona. However, social influence has been shown to be measurable in the paradigm of information theory. In this paper, we introduce an information theoretic measure to quantify social media user intent, and then investigate the corroboration of intent with evolution of the social network and detection of disinformation actors related to COVID-19 discussions on Twitter. Our measurement of user intent utilizes an existing time series analysis technique for estimation of social influence using transfer entropy among the considered users. We have analyzed 4.7 million tweets originating from several countries of interest, during a 5 month period when the arrival of the first dose of COVID vaccinations were announced. Our key findings include evidence that: (i) a significant correspondence between intent and social influence; (ii) ranking over users by intent and social influence is unstable over time with evidence of shifts in the hierarchical structure; and (iii) both user intent and social influence are important when distinguishing disinformation actors from non-disinformation actors.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗

DOE OSTI2021

A multiplexed nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry (NIMS) assay for simultaneously detecting glycosyl hydrolase and lignin modifying enzyme activities

Lignocellulosic biomass is composed of three major biopolymers: cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin. Analytical tools capable of quickly detecting both glycan and lignin deconstruction are needed to support the development and characterization of efficient enzymes/enzyme cocktails. Previously we have described nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry-based assays for the analysis of glycosyl hydrolase and most recently an assay for lignin modifying enzymes. Here we integrate these two assays into a single multiplexed assay against both classes of enzymes and use it to characterize crude commercial enzyme mixtures. Application of our multiplexed platform based on nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry enabled us to characterize crude mixtures of laccase enzymes from fungi Agaricus bisporus (Ab) and Myceliopthora thermophila (Mt) revealing activity on both carbohydrate and aromatic substrates. Using time-series analysis we determined that crude laccase from Ab has the higher GH activity and that laccase from Mt has the higher activity against our lignin model compound. Inhibitor studies showed a significant reduction in Mt GH activity under low oxygen conditions and increased activities in the presence of vanillin (common GH inhibitor). Ultimately, this assay can help to discover mixtures of enzymes that could be incorporated into biomass pretreatments to deconstruct diverse components of lignocellulosic biomass.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rapid eco‐phenotypic feedback and the temperature response of biomass dynamics

Biomass dynamics capture information on population dynamics and ecosystem-level processes (e.g., changes in production over time). Understanding how rising temperatures associated with global climate change influence biomass dynamics is thus a pressing issue in ecology. The total biomass of a species depends on its density and its average mass. Consequently, disentangling how biomass dynamics responds to increasingly warm and variable temperatures ultimately depends on understanding how temperature influences both density and mass dynamics. Here, we address this issue by keeping track of experimental microbial populations growing to carrying capacity for 15 days at two different temperatures, and in the presence and absence of temperature variability. We develop a simple mathematical expression to partition the contribution of changes in density and mass to changes in biomass and assess how temperature responses in either one influence biomass shifts. Moreover, we use time-series analysis (Convergent Cross Mapping) to address how temperature and temperature variability influence reciprocal effects of density on mass and vice versa. We show that temperature influences biomass through its effects on density and mass dynamics, which have opposite effects on biomass and can offset each other. We also show that temperature variability influences biomass, but that effect is independent of any effects on density or mass dynamics. Last, we show that reciprocal effects of density and mass shift significantly across temperature regimes, suggesting that rapid and environment-dependent eco-phenotypic dynamics underlie biomass responses. Overall, our results connect temperature effects on population and phenotypic dynamics to explain how biomass responds to temperature regimes, thus shedding light on processes at play in cosmopolitan and abundant microbes as the world experiences increasingly warm and variable temperatures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation and calibration of MERRA-2 and CAMS reanalysis for PM 2.5 in a semi-urbanized area in the south of the Amazon

Air pollution has significant implications for the climate and poses irreversible risks to human health. The Amazon region of Brazil is severely affected by biomass burning (BB) emissions, yet air quality monitoring remains highly inadequate. Given the scarcity of surface-based observations, reanalysis models have become essential tools for assessing air pollution. Although MERRA-2 and CAMS PM 2.5 products are widely utilized, their validation and comprehensive evaluation for the Amazon Basin remain limited. Here, this study assesses the performance of these products in a semi-urbanized region in the southern Amazon. The calibrated time series was employed to analyze PM 2.5 concentrations from 2003 to 2023. Our results showed satisfactory performance of both products for the 24-h averages of PM 2.5 , with linear correlations above 0.76. However, it was found that both products overestimate surface concentrations. MERRA-2 performed better, with approximately 30% lower bias than CAMS. Time series analysis showed that the study area is strongly impacted by emissions BB in the dry period, mainly in August and September. Furthermore, our findings indicate a positive trend in increasing PM 2.5 concentrations, with a notable rise observed since 2014. The average PM 2.5 levels frequently exceed the daily air quality guidelines established by the WHO in 2021. It has been estimated that the population of this region is exposed to concentrations above 15 μg.m -3 , on average, more than 30 days per year. Our results contribute to the evaluation of MERRA-2 and CAMS products for Amazon and provide a corrected estimate for surface PM 2.5 . Recent concerns about air quality and the implementation of new surface monitoring networks may improve the evaluation of reanalysis products. In the short term, the need for this information makes our assessments indispensable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗