Analysis of Bias-variance Trade-off in Estimators for Variational Inferencing .
Abstract not provided.
Das, Niladri↗
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Singleton Sieving: Overcoming the Memory/Speed Trade-Off in Exascale k-mer Analysis
Traditional filter data structures, such as Bloom filters, do not offer necessary features that modern high-performance data analytics applications need in order to efficiently perform complex data analysis tasks. For example, MetaHipMer, a de novo metagenome assembler, can use filters to weed out singleton k-mers and reduce memory usage by 30%-70%. However, the filter needs the ability to associate values with k-mers in order to perform the analysis in a single communication pass. Bloom filters do not support value associations and cause the application to perform an extra communication pass, thereby increasing the run time. Therefore, MetaHipMer faces a trade off between memory and speed due to the limited capabilities of traditional filters. In this paper, we overcome the memory and speed trade off in MetaHipMer by integrating a GPU-based feature-rich filter, the Two-Choice filter (TCF), in the MetaHipMer pipeline. The TCF uses key-value association to approximately store k-mers with extensions. This allows MetaHipMer to perform k-mer analysis on the GPUs in a single communication pass. Our empirical analysis shows a 50% reduction in memory usage in k-mer analysis on each node in MetaHipMer without any effect on the overall run time or assembly quality. The memory reduction in turn results in a 43% reduction in the number of nodes required to assemble datasets and enables MetaHipMer to scale to much larger datasets.
McCoy, Hunter↗
Meta-analysis identifies pleiotropic loci controlling phenotypic trade-offs in sorghum
Abstract Community association populations are composed of phenotypically and genetically diverse accessions. Once these populations are genotyped, the resulting marker data can be reused by different groups investigating the genetic basis of different traits. Because the same genotypes are observed and scored for a wide range of traits in different environments, these populations represent a unique resource to investigate pleiotropy. Here, we assembled a set of 234 separate trait datasets for the Sorghum Association Panel, a group of 406 sorghum genotypes widely employed by the sorghum genetics community. Comparison of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted with two independently generated marker sets for this population demonstrate that existing genetic marker sets do not saturate the genome and likely capture only 35–43% of potentially detectable loci controlling variation for traits scored in this population. While limited evidence for pleiotropy was apparent in cross-GWAS comparisons, a multivariate adaptive shrinkage approach recovered both known pleiotropic effects of existing loci and new pleiotropic effects, particularly significant impacts of known dwarfing genes on root architecture. In addition, we identified new loci with pleiotropic effects consistent with known trade-offs in sorghum development. These results demonstrate the potential for mining existing trait datasets from widely used community association populations to enable new discoveries from existing trait datasets as new, denser genetic marker datasets are generated for existing community association populations.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Exploring young adult texts within the Historically Responsive Literacy Framework with preservice teachers
Abstract While culturally responsive texts have become more common in teacher education, too often, preservice teachers (PTs) are not asked to examine how to use these books pedagogically. To address this issue, in a young adult (YA) literature course, the Framework for Culturally and Historically Responsive Literacy (HRL) (Muhammad, 2000) Cultivating genius: An equity framework for culturally and historically responsive literac y, 2020; Scholastic) was used in conjunction with representative and inclusive YA trade books. Data analysis was conducted on PT's course work, including HRL unit plans, to determine whether PTs were able to implement Muhammad's (2020) framework using YA texts. The findings of this study show that PTs' understanding of the HRL tenets was at varying levels. While there were unit plans with learning goals that matched Muhammad's purpose and definition for each tenet and YA connections for every tenet, PTs showed a better understanding of the tenets of identity and intellect than skills and Criticality. Implications of these findings including exposing PTs to learning frameworks “written by people of color and designed for children of color” (Muhammad, 2020, p. 11) to create instruction that meets their future students' needs and does not just skim the surface of culturally responsive pedagogies.
Pule, Heather↗
Accounting for Sustainability and Performance: Contrasting Effects of PET-Derived Modifiers on Asphalt Durability
The valorization of waste plastics in roadway infrastructure requires careful balance between sustainability and performance, as ineffective modifiers may incur both environmental and financial costs. This study shows that two modifiers derived from the same waste plastic source (PET)-DOTP (N1,N4-(dioctyl)terephthalamide) and HETP (N1,N4-Bis(2-hydroxyethyl)terephthalamide)-exhibit opposite effects on asphalt properties, despite having nearly the same carbon footprint. DOTP improves elastic recovery in multiple creep recovery tests (MCRT), while HETP increases strain accumulation and reduces elasticity. Density functional theory (DFT) shows that DOTP's molecular structure can disperse well in bitumen mixtures by binding to both polar and non-polar components. In contrast, HETP binds only to the binder's polar sites, lacking adequate dispersion. This increases the risk of aggregation of polar compounds in the bitumen mixture, resulting in a more deformation-prone binder. A techno-economic analysis highlights trade-offs between sustainability and performance in industrial-scale synthesis. This study advocates for applying first-principles thinking in material design, coupled with experimental validation, to engineer plastic waste-derived additives that achieve both performance and sustainability goals.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity
Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics models (MSDs) of global and national challenges and opportunities, including pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requires projections of economic growth. In turn, the pursuit of multiple interacting goals affects economic productivity and growth, generating complex feedback loops among actions and objectives. Yet, most analysis uses either exogenous projections of productivity and growth or specifications endogenously enriched with a very small set of drivers. Extending endogenous treatment of productivity to represent two-way interactions with a significant set of goal-related variables can considerably enhance analysis. Among such variables incorporated in this project are aspects of human development (e.g., education, health, poverty reduction), socio-political change (e.g., governance capacity and quality), and infrastructure (e.g. water and sanitation and modern energy access), all in conditional interaction with underlying technological advance and economic convergence among countries. Using extensive datasets across countries and time, this project broadly endogenizes total factor productivity (TFP) within a large-scale, multi-issue IAM, the International Futures (IFs) model system. We demonstrate the utility of the resultant open system via comparison of new TFP projections with those produced for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, via integrated analysis of economic growth potential, and via multi-scenario analysis of progress toward the SDGs. We find that the integrated system can reproduce existing SSP projections, help anticipate differential economic progress across countries, and facilitate extended, integrated analysis of trade-offs and synergies in pursuit of the SDGs.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Development and Application of a Risk Analysis Toolkit for Plant Resources Optimization
This report summarizes the R&D activities of the Risk Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project during fiscal year 2020 (FY20). This project focuses on the development of methods designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedule, optimal maintenance posture) provided system/component health/cost data. This project development lives in cooperation with the Plant Health Management (PHM) project which focuses on the development of methods that integrate component health data and propagate such information at the system level to evaluate most relevant sources of risk. This year’s activities for the RIAM project focused on the continuation of schedule optimization algorithms developed in FY19. While in FY19 we focused on both deterministic and stochastic capital budgeting methods, in FY20 we moved forward by implementing two versions of schedule optimization methods. The first one reformulates the capital budgeting problem in a distributionally robust form which allows the user to rely on data directly rather than proposing a distribution from the data itself. The second version reformulates the capital budgeting explicitly using risk measures as variables to maximize/minimize. Lastly, we focused on the development of methods designed to identify the optimal maintenance posture based on the Pareto Frontier analysis. Rather than performing a tradeoff analysis (i.e., identify the absolute best posture), the Pareto Frontier analysis performs a trade space exploration approach (i.e., identify value and costs of several postures and have the analyst perform the task of imposing desired value and cost constraints). This is performed by identifying maintenance postures that maximize value (e.g., system availability) and minimize operational costs, i.e., the Pareto frontier in a value-cost trade space.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Techno-Economic Analysis of CSP Incorporating sCO2 Brayton Power Cycles: Trade-Off Between Cost and Performance
Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants, thanks to the implementation of cost-competitive thermal energy storage, represent a dispatchable zero-emission alternative to traditional fossil fuel power plants. Next generation solar towers are expected to adopt high temperature receivers (>700 degrees C) coupled to sCO2-based power blocks, which optimal design is generally pushed towards the maximum cycle efficiency, often neglecting the economic impact with the justification that the main share of the capital cost is represented by the heliostat field. As result, the scientific literature lacks in comprehensive studies on techno-economic evaluation of CSP+sCO2 power plants addressing the important correlation that exists between system cost and performances. This work provides a preliminary techno-economic analysis of a solar power tower comparing four different cycle configurations for the sCO2 power block. Results have been reported on a Pareto front, highlighting the tradeoff between the plant investment cost and the solar-to-electricity plant efficiency. The trends of the optimization variables and cycle results have been reported to give useful insights about proper assumptions for the sCO2 power block design. The recompressed cycle with intercooling resulted as the most promising configuration and it has been further analyzed through a comparison of different solutions on the Pareto front. The cost breakdown of the sCO2 power block has been reported to highlight which components have the greatest impact on the overall plant cost and how they vary along the optimal solutions front. Eventually, the optimization has been repeated introducing a correlation to compute the turbomachinery isentropic efficiencies, to investigate their effect on the techno- economic analysis.
concentrated solar power↗
Safe and Private Forward-trading Platform for Transactive Microgrids
Power grids are evolving at an unprecedented pace due to the rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DER) in communities. These resources are very different from traditional power sources, as they are located closer to loads and thus can significantly reduce transmission losses and carbon emissions. However, their intermittent and variable nature often results in spikes in the overall demand on distribution system operators (DSO). To manage these challenges, there has been a surge of interest in building decentralized control schemes, where a pool of DERs combined with energy storage devices can exchange energy locally to smooth fluctuations in net demand. Building a decentralized market for transactive microgrids is challenging, because even though a decentralized system provides resilience, it also must satisfy requirements such as privacy, efficiency, safety, and security, which are often in conflict with each other. As such, existing implementations of decentralized markets often focus on resilience and safety but compromise on privacy. In this article, we describe our platform, called TRANSAX, which enables participants to trade in an energy futures market, which improves efficiency by finding feasible matches for energy trades, enabling DSOs to plan their energy needs better. TRANSAX provides privacy to participants by anonymizing their trading activity using a distributed mixing service, while also enforcing constraints that limit trading activity based on safety requirements, such as keeping planned energy flow below line capacity. We show that TRANSAX can satisfy the seemingly conflicting requirements of efficiency, safety, and privacy. We also provide an analysis of how much trading efficiency is lost. Trading efficiency is improved through the problem formulation, which accounts for temporal flexibility, and system efficiency is improved using a hybrid-solver architecture. Lastly, we describe a testbed to run experiments and demonstrate its performance using simulation results.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Seismoacoustic Explosion Yield and Depth Estimation: Insights from the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment
The Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment (LSECE) is a chemical explosion experiment conducted in Yucca Flat at the Nevada National Security Site in 2020. The experiment included two surface detonations of ~1000 kg trinitrotoluene equivalent. The main goal of this experiment was to provide the ground-truth data for seismoacoustic wave excitation by large chemical explosions near the ground surface. The seismic and acoustic energy partitioning between the surface is strongly governed by the depth or height of explosions, and either seismic or acoustic-only analysis may have inherent ambiguity in determining explosion yield and depth simultaneously. Previous studies suggested that joint seismoacoustic analysis can resolve the trade-off and reduce the uncertainty of yield and depth estimation dramatically. Here we demonstrate the capability of seismoacoustic analysis to improve the accuracy of explosion yield and depth estimation with the LSECE data. Local acoustic wave propagation in the atmosphere can be substantially affected by constantly varying weather conditions. Consisting of two detonations before dawn and in the afternoon, LSECE provides unique data to evaluate the model accuracy of acoustic wave propagation and seismoacoustic energy partitioning depending on local atmospheric conditions. We quantitatively evaluate the accuracy of yield and depth estimation depending on atmospheric variability and the improvement achieved by the joint seismoacoustic approach.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Rejection of low-molecular weight neutral organics is highly sensitive to reverse osmosis system design and operation
A computational model was developed to investigate the significance of system design and operating conditions on the rejection of neutral, low-MW organics by reverse osmosis for potable reuse. Here, the model demonstrated that the decrease in local rejection as net driving pressure decreases is substantially greater for moderately rejected compounds than for highly rejected compounds. At recovery values less than 70%, the local permeate concentration can exceed the pressure vessel feed concentration for moderately rejected compounds. System-level rejection of moderately rejected compounds is likewise substantially more sensitive to operating conditions than highly rejected compounds. The findings highlight a drawback of relying on rejection results from bench-scale testing that operates at low recovery, which invariably has higher rejection than full-scale systems operating at similar pressure. The analysis demonstrates a trade-off in which the low-pressure, high-recovery operation desired for potable reuse systems can be detrimental to the removal of low-MW neutral organics. The removal of low-MW neutral organics can be improved if organics rejection is explicitly evaluated during the design process.
42 ENGINEERING↗
3D ion gyro-orbit heat load predictions for NSTX-U
Abstract High power tokamaks operate with divertor heat loads capable of destroying the plasma facing components (PFCs). High fidelity heat load predictions are necessary to ascertain the PFC state for design and during operation. Typical heat flux calculations are 2D, time invariant, and assume that power flows directly along the magnetic field lines (the optical approximation). These assumptions neglect the complex 3D geometries employed to protect the PFCs, the time varying nature of the plasma and PFC thermal state, and the helical trajectories of ions with finite Larmor radii (the gyro-orbit approximation). An integrated software framework, the heat flux engineering analysis toolkit (HEAT), was developed to generate time varying optical heat loads applied to real engineering computer aided design (CAD) (Looby et al 2022 Fusion Sci. Technol. 78 10–27). Recently, an ion-gyro orbit module has been added to HEAT. This module calculates the helical trajectories of ions as they gyrate about the magnetic field lines using kinetic theory macro-particles to accelerate the calculation. First, the new gyro-orbit module will be presented. Next, a comparison to existing research is performed. Finally, an analysis of the gyro-orbit heat loads for NSTX-U is presented for diverted discharges using the engineering CAD models utilized for PFC fabrication. Including these gyro-orbit effects can enhance the PFC performance by ‘smearing’ out the magnetic shadows associated with the castellated fish-scaled geometry. Simultaneously, the helical trajectories can degrade performance when they load narrow regions on edges and corners with high heat fluxes. Analysis of the trade-offs between these competing effects is included, and regions for further investigation are identified.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
CoSim: A Simulator for Co-Scheduling of Batch and On-Demand Jobs in HPC Datacenters
The increasing scale and complexity of scientific applications are rapidly transforming the ecosystem of tools, methods, and workflows adopted by the high-performance computing (HPC) community. Big data analytics and deep learning are gaining traction as essential components in this ecosystem in a variety of scenarios, such as, steering of experimental instruments , acceleration of high-fidelity simulations through surrogate computations, and guided ensemble searches. In this context, the batch job model traditionally adopted by the supercomputing in-frastructures needs to be complemented with support to schedule opportunistic on-demand analytics jobs, leading to the problem of efficient preemption of batch jobs with minimum loss of progress. In this paper, we design and implement a simulator, CoSim, that enables on-the-fly analysis of the trade-offs arising between delaying the start of opportunistic on-demand jobs, which leads to longer analytics latency, and loss of progress due to preemption of batch jobs, which is necessary to make room for on-demand jobs. To this end, we propose an algorithm based on dynamic programming with predictable performance and scalability that enables supercomputing infrastructure schedulers to analyze the aforementioned trade-off and take decisions in near real-time. Compared with other state-of-art approaches using traces of the Theta pre-Exascale machine, our approach is capable of finding the optimal solution, while achieving high performance and scalability.
batch job preemption↗
Regional analysis of aluminum and steel flows into the American automotive industry
Aluminum and steel represent the two most dominant metals in light duty vehicles, yet the flows of these materials into the American automotive industry have not been well characterized. This study proposes and implements a method for analyzing the flow of these metals into the automotive industry. We create a framework for performing regionally linked, sector specific material flow analyses and use this framework to trace flows of aluminum and steel entering the American automotive industry, focusing on flows downstream from raw material production. We show that automotive aluminum sheet and extrusions are sourced primarily from the NPCC (23%), SERC (20%), MRO (18%), and RFC (13%) NERC regions and a spatially unresolved Local region within the U.S. and Canada (18%). We determine that primary aluminum is largely from Canada (70%), nearly all from Quebec (69%). Further upstream, alumina and bauxite originate mostly from Brazil, Australia, and Jamaica. We also show that finished automotive steel is sourced primarily from the RFC (63%) and SERC (20%) regions. The crude steel supply similarly originates mainly from the RFC (69%) and SERC (7%) regions. Upstream raw materials including coke, coking coal, iron ore, lime, and steel scrap are primarily sourced from the U.S. with only direct reduced iron and pig iron used in electric arc furnace steel production coming mostly from outside the U.S. The framework developed here allows for increased spatial resolution of material flows, which can be used to develop more specific life cycle impact factors for life cycle assessments.
aluminum↗
Performance Evaluation of Heterogeneous GPU Programming Frameworks for Hemodynamic Simulations
Preparing for the deployment of large scientific and engineering codes on upcoming exascale systems with GPU-dense nodes is made challenging by the unprecedented diversity of device architectures and heterogeneous programming models. In this work, we evaluate the process of porting a massively parallel, fluid dynamics code written in CUDA to SYCL, HIP, and Kokkos with a range of backends, using a combination of automated tools and manual tuning. We use a proxy application along with a custom performance model to inform the results and identify additional optimization strategies. At scale performance of the programming model implementations are evaluated on pre-production GPU node architectures for Frontier and Aurora, as well as on current NVIDIA device-based systems Summit and Polaris. Real-world workloads representing 3D blood flow calculations in complex vasculature are assessed. Our analysis highlights critical trade-offs between code performance, portability, and development time.
Martin, Aristotle↗
Pricing and Energy Trading in Peer-to-Peer Zero Marginal-Cost Microgrids
Efforts to utilize 100% renewable energy in community microgrids require new approaches to energy markets and transactions to efficiently address periods of scarce energy supply. In this paper we contribute to the promising approach of peer-to-peer (P2P) energy trading in two main ways: analysis of a centralized, welfare-maximizing economic dispatch that characterizes optimal price and allocations, and a novel P2P system for negotiating energy trades that yields physically feasible and at least weakly Pareto-optimal outcomes. Our main results are 1) that optimal pricing is insufficient to induce agents with batteries to take optimal actions, 2) a novel P2P algorithm to addresses this while keeping private information, 3) a formal proof that this algorithm converges to the centralized solution in the case of two agents negotiating for a single period, and 4) numerical simulations of the P2P algorithm performance with up to 10 agents and 24 periods that show it converges on average to total welfare within 0.1% of the social optimum in on the order of 10s to 100s of iterations, increasing with the number of agents, time periods, and total storage capacity.
batteries↗
Entropy-driven melting point depression in fcc HEAs
High Entropy Alloys (HEAs) are an increasingly dominant alloy design paradigm. The premise of entropic stabilization of single-phase alloys has motivated much of the research on HEAs. Chemical complexity may indeed help stabilize single alloy phases relative to other lower-entropy competing solid phases. Paradoxically, this complexity may de-stabilize these alloys against the liquid phase, potentially limiting the application space of HEAs at elevated temperatures. In this work, we carry out a comprehensive investigation of the phase stability in the fcc CoCrFeMnNiV-Al HEA space using a state of the art CALPHAD database. By using modern visualization techniques and statistical analysis we examine the trade-off between chemical complexity and stability against the liquid state and identify a potentially difficult to overcome barrier for development of high temperature alloys, at least within the conventional fcc HEA space. Here, limited experimental data seem to be consistent with this analysis.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗