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At least 37 records · Page 2

Integrating a Water Tracer Model Into WRF‐Hydro for Characterizing the Effect of Lateral Flow in Hydrologic Simulations

Abstract Most current land models approximate terrestrial hydrological processes as one‐dimensional vertical flow, neglecting lateral water movement from ridges to valleys. Such lateral flow is fundamental at catchment scales and becomes crucial for finer‐scale land models. To test the effect of incorporating lateral flow toward three‐dimensional representations of hydrological processes in the next generation land models, we integrate a water tracer model into the WRF‐Hydro framework to track water movement from precipitation to discharge and evapotranspiration. This hydrologic‐tracer integrated system allows us to identify the key mechanisms by which lateral flow affects the flow paths and transit times in WRF‐Hydro. By comparing modeling experiments with and without lateral routing in two contrasting catchments, we determine the impacts of lateral flow on the transit times of precipitation event‐water. Results show that with limited hydrologic connectivity, lateral flow extends the transit times by reducing (increasing) event‐water drainage loss (accumulation) in ridges (valleys) and allowing reinfiltration of infiltration‐excess flow, which is missing in most land models. On the contrary with high hydrologic connectivity, lateral flow can effectively accelerate the water release to streams and reduce the transit time. However, the transit times are substantially underestimated by the model compared with isotope‐derived estimates, indicating model limitations in representing flow paths and transit times. This study provides some insights on the fundamental differences in terrestrial hydrology simulated by land models with and without lateral flow representation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Surface-to-Interior Transport Timescales and Ventilation Patterns in a Time-Dependent Circulation Driven by Sustained Climate Warming

Abstract The effect of climate warming in response to rising atmospheric CO 2 on the ventilation of the ocean remains uncertain. Here we make theoretical advances in elucidating the relationship between ideal age and transit time distribution (TTD) in a time-dependent flow. Subsequently, we develop an offline tracer-transport model to characterize the ventilation patterns and time scales in the time-evolving circulation for the 1850–2300 period as simulated with the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESMv1) under a business-as-usual warming scenario. We found that by 2300 2.1% less water originates from the high-latitude deep water formation regions (both hemispheres) compared to 1850. In compensation, there is an increase in the water originating from the subantarctic. We also found that slowing meridional overturning circulation causes a gradual increase in mean age during the 1850–2300 period, with a globally averaged mean-age increase of ∼110 years in 2300. Where and when the water will be re-exposed to the atmosphere depends on the post-2300 circulation. For example, if we assume that the circulation persists in its year-2300 state (scenario 1), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in year 1850 is ∼1140 years. In contrast, if we assume that the circulation abruptly recovers to its year-1850 state (scenario 2), the mean interior-to-surface transit time in 1850 is only ∼740 years. By 2300, these differences become even larger; in scenario 1, the mean interior-to-surface transit time increases by ∼200 years, whereas scenario 2 decreases by ∼80 years. The dependence of interior-to-surface transit time on the future ocean circulation produces an additional unavoidable uncertainty in the long-term durability of marine carbon dioxide removal strategies. Significance Statement The ocean’s circulation, when altered by climate warming, can affect its capacity to absorb heat and CO 2 , which are crucial for the global climate. In our study, we investigated how global warming, caused by rising CO 2 levels, might impact the ocean circulation—the way water moves from deep ocean to the surface and vice versa. We discovered that by 2300, if we continue on our current warming trajectory, the origins of water within the ocean will shift, with less coming from deep, cold zones near the poles and more from subantarctic regions. As a result, deep water will take longer time before it resurfaces than shallow water. How quickly this water travels from deep regions to the surface could change, depending on the state of future ocean circulation. If the circulation remains as predicted in 2300, this journey will take longer. Conversely, if it reverts to the pattern in 1850, the process will be quicker. This variability introduces added uncertainty to strategies aimed at mitigating climate change by storing CO 2 in the ocean. Our work highlights the intricate ways in which climate change can influence our oceans, potentially affecting our plans to mitigate global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Updated Parameters and a New Transmission Spectrum of HD 97658b

Recent years have seen increasing interest in the characterization of sub-Neptune-sized planets because of their prevalence in the Galaxy, contrasted with their absence in our solar system. HD 97658 is one of the brightest stars hosting a planet of this kind, and we present the transmission spectrum of this planet by combining four Hubble Space Telescope transits, 12 Spitzer/IRAC transits, and eight MOST transits of this system. Our transmission spectrum has a higher signal-to-noise ratio than those from previous works, and the result suggests that the slight increase in transit depth from wavelength 1.1–1.7 μm reported in previous works on the transmission spectrum of this planet is likely systematic. Nonetheless, our atmospheric modeling results are inconclusive, as no model provides an excellent match to our data. Nonetheless, we find that atmospheres with high C/O ratios (C/O ≳ 0.8) and metallicities of ≳100× solar metallicity are favored. We combine the mid-transit times from all of the new Spitzer and MOST observations and obtain an updated orbital period of P = 9.489295 ± 0.000005, with a best-fit transit time center at T {sub 0} = 2456361.80690 ± 0.00038 (BJD). No transit timing variations are found in this system. We also present new measurements of the stellar rotation period (34 ± 2 days) and stellar activity cycle (9.6 yr) of the host star HD 97658. Finally, we calculate and rank the Transmission Spectroscopy Metric of all confirmed planets cooler than 1000 K and with sizes between 1 R {sub ⊕} and 4 R {sub ⊕}. We find that at least a third of small planets cooler than 1000 K can be well characterized using James Webb Space Telescope, and of those, HD 97658b is ranked fifth, meaning that it remains a high-priority target for atmospheric characterization.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reducing ion diffusion at atmospheric pressure through intermingled positive and negative ions

Increasing ion molecule reaction times for ambient ionization techniques can increase sensitivity of detection. Longer reaction times result in an increase in analyte signal relative to the reactant ion signal, however with a subsequent decrease in the total ion intensity. This loss in the total number of ions reaching the detector limits the extent to which increased reaction time can improve detection in practical applications. In this study ion loss was measured using either electric fields or gas flow to control ion transit time. Ion transit times ranged from 40 ms to 8s, which resulted in ion densities ranging from 5 x 10 6 to 2 x 10 4 ions/cm 3 , respectively. These results provide insights into practical reaction time limitations or experimental boundaries when exploring sensitivity enhancements in ambient ionization. When exploring longer reaction times with an atmospheric flow tube coupled to a mass spectrometer (AFT-MS), an additional corona discharge ionization source of the same polarity was added in an attempt to increase total ion signal, but no improvement in signal was observed. This observation suggested that there was a maximum ion density being reached by the corona discharge that could not be increased by adding more of the same polarity ions. A hypothesis was that intermingling both polarities of ions would reduce ion loss and increase the measured ion signal. When two corona discharge sources—one each of positive and negative polarity—were used simultaneously in an AFT-MS, the total ion signal of either polarity measured by the MS was approximately double the current from a single corona discharge source. An increase in the negative ion signal was also observed when ~10 parts-per-trillion vapor levels of an explosive (RDX) were introduced. In this case both the nitrate reactant ions and the RDX signal more than doubled with the addition of a corona discharge source producing positive ions. When intermingling positive and negative ions, an increase in ion current was also observed when the AFT was coupled directly to a Faraday detector or to an ion mobility spectrometer. This was the first demonstration of interfacing the AFT to an IMS. The observations and developments from this work will help in creating more portable instruments with improved sensitivity for detection of chemicals.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Microscopic force driving the photoinduced ultrafast phase transition: Time-dependent density functional theory simulations of IrTe 2

Photoinduced phase transitions can have complex and intriguing behaviors more than material ground-state dynamics. Understanding the underlying mechanism can help us to design new ways to manipulate the materials. A variety of mechanisms has been proposed to explain the photoinduced phase transitions of IrTe 2 , but a consensus has yet to be reached. Here, we study the photo-induced phase transitions of IrTe 2 by performing the real-time time-dependent density functional theory (rt-TDDFT) simulations in combination with the occupation constrained DFT method. We reveal that the microscopic driving force for the photo-induced phase transitions arises from the tendency to lower the energy levels occupied by the excited carriers, through the increase or decrease of the associated atomic pair distances, depending on whether the newly occupied states are antibonding or bonding states, respectively. The geometric constraints between different bonds represented by the Poisson ratio can bring together different tendencies from different atomic pairs, thus forming a complex intriguing dynamic picture depending on the intensity of the excitation. Furthermore, we also find that phonons don't play a primary role, but can assist the phase transition. These findings imply that one can control the structural phase transitions by selectively exciting photocarriers into designated atomic states using appropriate photon sources.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

On the Detection of Habitable Trojan Planets in the Kepler Circumbinary Systems

We present the results of a study of the prospect of detecting habitable Trojan planets in the Kepler Habitable Zone circumbinary planetary systems (Kepler-16, -47, -453, -1647, and -1661). We integrated the orbits of 10,000 separate N-body systems (N = 4, 6), each with a one Earth-mass body in a randomly selected orbit near the L {sub 4} and L {sub 5} Lagrangian points of the host HZ circumbinary planet. We find that stable Trojan planets are restricted to a narrow range of semimajor axes in all five systems and limited to small eccentricities in Kepler-16, -47, and -1661. To assess the prospect of the detection of these habitable Trojan planets, we calculated the amplitudes of the variations they cause in the transit timing of their host bodies. Results show that the mean amplitudes of the transit timing variations (TTVs) correlate with the mass of the transiting planet and range from 70 minutes for Kepler-16b to 390 minutes for Kepler-47c. Our analysis indicates that the TTVs of the circumbinary planets caused by these Trojan bodies fall within the detectable range of timing precision obtained from the Kepler telescope’s long-cadence data. The latter points to Kepler data as a viable source to search for habitable Trojan planets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Revisiting the Architecture of the KOI-89 System

While high stellar obliquities observed in exoplanetary systems may be attributed to processes that tilt the planetary orbits, it is also possible that they reflect misalignments between protoplanetary disks and stellar spins. This latter hypothesis predicts the presence of coplanar multiplanetary systems misaligned with their central stars. Here we reevaluate the evidence of such an architecture that has been claimed for the KOI-89 system. An early-type star, KOI-89 has one validated transiting planet, KOI-89.01/Kepler-462b (period 84.7 days, radius 3.0 R {sub ⊕}), and one transiting planet candidate, KOI-89.02 (period 207.6 days, radius 4.0 R {sub ⊕}), where the latter exhibits transit timing variations (TTVs). A previous modeling of the stellar gravity-darkening effect in the transit light curves inferred a high stellar obliquity of ≈70°. We perform photodynamical modeling of the Kepler transit light curves and use the resulting constraints on the orbital configuration and transit times to update the gravity-darkened transit model. As a result, we find no firm evidence for the gravity-darkening effect in the transit shapes and conclude that stellar obliquity is not constrained by the data. Given the evidence for low orbital eccentricities from the dynamical analysis, the system architecture can thus be consistent with many other multitransiting systems with flat, near-circular orbits aligned with the stellar spin. We find that the TTVs imparted on its neighbor imply that KOI-89.01 has a mass ≳20 M {sub ⊕}. This would render it one of the densest known sub-Neptunes, mostly composed of a solid core. Lower masses are possible if the TTVs are instead due to an unseen third planet.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Phase noise limited frequency shift impulsive Raman spectroscopy

We introduce a method to enable optical amplification of a coherent Raman spectroscopy signal, which we call radio frequency (RF) Doppler Raman spectroscopy. In this article, we consider the perturbation of a probe pulse in a sample due to an excited Raman vibrational coherence as a generalized Doppler shift, which connects a time-varying optical path length (the product of the propagation length and refractive index, OPL = n ℓ) with an optical frequency shift. Amplification of a Raman signal outside of the focused interaction is enabled by converting the Doppler frequency shift experienced by a laser probe pulse into a periodic timing jitter. This transit time perturbation is detected through the phase of a RF electronic signal measured at a harmonic of the probe pulse train with a method adapted from precision metrology techniques used to measure laser pulse train timing jitter. Measurement of a timing jitter allows access to much lower noise floors than other coherent Raman techniques, and by exploiting the new capability to scale the signal of a coherent Raman spectroscopic signal, this method opens the potential to detect very weak Raman signals that are currently not observable due to limits of illumination intensity imposed by laser damage to the specimen and noise.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

A framework of computer vision-enhanced microfluidic approach for automated assessment of the transient sickling kinetics in sickle red blood cells

The occurrence of vaso-occlusive crisis greatly depends on the competition between the sickling delay time and the transit time of individual sickle cells, i.e., red blood cells from sickle cell disease (SCD) patients, while they are traversing the circulatory system. Many drugs for treating SCD work by inhibiting the polymerization of sickle hemoglobin (HbS), effectively delaying the sickling process in sickle cells (SS RBCs). Most previous studies on screening anti-sickling drugs, such as voxelotor, rely on in vitro testing of sickling characteristics, often conducted under prolonged deoxygenation for up to 1 hour. However, since the microcirculation of RBCs typically takes less than 1 minute, the results of these studies may be less accurate and less relevant for in vitro-in vivo correlation. In our current study, we introduce a computer vision-enhanced microfluidic framework designed to automatically capture the transient sickling kinetics of SS RBCs within a 1-min timeframe. Our study has successfully detected differences in the transient sickling kinetics between vehicle control and voxelotor-treated SS RBCs. This approach has the potential for broader applications in screening anti-sickling therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Nondetection of Helium in the Upper Atmospheres of TRAPPIST-1b, e, and f

We obtained high-resolution spectra of the ultracool M-dwarf TRAPPIST-1 during the transit of its planet “b” using two high-dispersion near-infrared spectrographs, the Infrared Doppler (IRD) instrument on the Subaru 8.2m telescope, and the Habitable Zone Planet Finder (HPF) instrument on the 10 m Hobby–Eberly Telescope. These spectroscopic observations are complemented by a photometric transit observation for planet “b” using the APO/ARCTIC, which assisted us in capturing the correct transit times for our transit spectroscopy. Using the data obtained by the new IRD and HPF observations, as well as the prior transit observations of planets “b,” “e” and “f” from IRD, we attempt to constrain the atmospheric escape of the planet using the He i triplet 10830 Å absorption line. We do not detect evidence for any primordial extended H-He atmospheres in all three planets. To limit any planet-related absorption, we place an upper limit on the equivalent widths of <7.754 mÅ for planet “b,” <10.458 mÅ for planet “e,” <4.143 mÅ for planet “f” at 95% confidence from the IRD data, and <3.467 mÅ for planet “b” at 95% confidence from HPF data. Using these limits along with a solar-like composition isothermal Parker wind model, we attempt to constrain the mass-loss rates for the three planets. For TRAPPIST-1b, our models exclude the highest possible energy-limited rate for a wind temperature <5000 K. This nondetection of extended atmospheres with low mean-molecular weights in all three planets aids in further constraining their atmospheric composition by steering the focus toward the search of high-molecular-weight species in their atmospheres.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

The effect of repeated hurricanes on the age of organic carbon in humid tropical forest soil

Abstract Increasing hurricane frequency and intensity with climate change is likely to affect soil organic carbon (C) stocks in tropical forests. We examined the cycling of C between soil pools and with depth at the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico in soils over a 30‐year period that spanned repeated hurricanes. We used a nonlinear matrix model of soil C pools and fluxes (“soilR”) and constrained the parameters with soil and litter survey data. Soil chemistry and stable and radiocarbon isotopes were measured from three soil depths across a topographic gradient in 1988 and 2018. Our results suggest that pulses and subsequent reduction of inputs caused by severe hurricanes in 1989, 1998, and two in 2017 led to faster mean transit times of soil C in 0–10 cm and 35–60 cm depths relative to a modeled control soil with constant inputs over the 30‐year period. Between 1988 and 2018, the occluded C stock increased and δ 13 C in all pools decreased, while changes in particulate and mineral‐associated C were undetectable. The differences between 1988 and 2018 suggest that hurricane disturbance results in a dilution of the occluded light C pool with an influx of young, debris‐deposited C, and possible microbial scavenging of old and young C in the particulate and mineral‐associated pools. These effects led to a younger total soil C pool with faster mean transit times. Our results suggest that the increasing frequency of intense hurricanes will speed up rates of C cycling in tropical forests, making soil C more sensitive to future tropical forest stressors.

14C↗

Characterization of carrier behavior in photonically excited 6H silicon carbide exhibiting fast, high voltage, bulk transconductance properties

Abstract Unabated, worldwide trends in CO 2 production project growth to > 43-BMT per year over the next two decades. Efficient power electronics are crucial to fully realizing the CO 2 mitigating benefits of a worldwide smart grid (~ 18% reduction for the United States alone). Even state-of-the-art SiC high voltage junction devices are inefficient because of slow transition times (~ 0.5-μs) and limited switching rates at high voltage (~ 20-kHz at ≥ 15-kV) resulting from the intrinsically limited charge carrier drift speed (< 2 × 10 7 -cm-s −1 ). Slow transition times and limited switch rates waste energy through transition loss and hysteresis loss in external magnetic components. Bulk conduction devices, where carriers are generated and controlled nearly simultaneously throughout the device volume, minimize this loss. Such devices are possible using below bandgap excitation of semi-insulating (SI) SiC single crystals. We explored carrier dynamics with a 75-fs single wavelength pump/supercontinuum probe and a modified transient spectroscopy technique and also demonstrated a new class of efficient, high-speed, high-gain, bi-directional, optically-controlled transistor-like power device. At a performance level six times that of existing devices, for the first time we demonstrated prototype operation at multi-10s of kW and 20-kV, 125-kHz in a bulk conduction transistor-like device using direct photon-carrier excitation with below bandgap light.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Optimization of the electron transport layer in quantum dot light-emitting devices

Quantum dot light-emitting devices have emerged as an important technology for display applications. Their emission is a result of recombination between positive and negative charge carriers that are transported through the hole and electron conductive layers, respectively. The selection of electron or hole transport materials in these devices not only demands the alignment of energy levels between the layers but also balances the flow of electrons and holes toward the recombination sites. In this work, we examine a method for device optimization through control of the charge carrier kinetics. We employ impedance spectroscopy to examine the mobility of charge carriers through each of the layers. The derived mobility values provide a path to estimate the transition time of each charge carrier toward the emitting layer. We suggest that an optimal device structure can be obtained when the transition times of both charge carriers toward the active layer are similar. Finally, we examine our hypothesis by focusing on thickness optimization of the electron transport layer.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Properties of the Prompt Optical Counterpart Arising from the Cooling of Electrons in Gamma-Ray Bursts

This work extends a contemporaneous effort to study the properties of the lower-energy counterpart synchrotron emission produced by the cooling of relativistic gamma-ray burst (GRB) electrons through radiation (synchrotron and self-Compton) emission and adiabatic losses. We derive the major characteristics (pulse duration, lag time after burst, and brightness relative to the burst) of the prompt optical counterpart (POC) occurring during or after the GRB. Depending on the magnetic field lifetime, duration of electron injection, and electron transit time Δt o from hard X-ray (GRB) to optical-emitting energies, a POC may appear during the GRB pulse (of duration δt γ ) or after (delayed OC). The signature of counterparts arising from the cooling of GRB electrons is that POC pulses (Δto < δtγ) last as long as the corresponding GRB pulse (δt o ≃ δt γ ), while delayed OC pulses (Δt o > δt γ ) last as long as the transit time (δt o ≃ Δt o ). If OC variability can be measured, then another signature for this OC mechanism is that the GRB variability is passed on to POCs but not to delayed OCs. Within the GRB electron cooling model for counterparts, POCs should be on average dimmer than delayed ones (consistent with the data), and harder GRB low-energy slopes β LE should be associated more often with the dimmer POCs. The latter sets an observational bias against detecting POCs from (the cooling of electrons in) GRBs with a hard slope β LE , making it more likely that the detected POCs of such bursts arise from another mechanism.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Microphysically modified magnetosonic modes in collisionless, high-β plasmas

With the support of hybrid-kinetic simulations and analytic theory, we describe the nonlinear behaviour of long-wavelength non-propagating (NP) modes and fast magnetosonic waves in high-β collisionless plasmas, with particular attention to their excitation of and reaction to kinetic micro-instabilities. The perpendicularly pressure balanced polarization of NP modes produces an excess of perpendicular pressure over parallel pressure in regions where the plasma β is increased. For mode amplitudes |δB/B 0 |≳0.3, this excess excites the mirror instability. Particle scattering off these micro-scale mirrors frustrates the nonlinear saturation of transit-time damping, ensuring that large-amplitude NP modes continue their decay to small amplitudes. At asymptotically large wavelengths, we predict that the mirror-induced scattering will be large enough to interrupt transit-time damping entirely, isotropizing the pressure perturbations and morphing the collisionless NP mode into the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) entropy mode. In fast waves, a fluctuating pressure anisotropy drives both mirror and firehose instabilities when the wave amplitude satisfies |δB/B 0 |≳2β -1 . The induced particle scattering leads to delayed shock formation and MHD-like wave dynamics. Taken alongside prior work on self-interrupting Alfvén waves and self-sustaining ion-acoustic waves, our results establish a foundation for new theories of electromagnetic turbulence in low-collisionality, high-β plasmas such as the intracluster medium, radiatively inefficient accretion flows and the near-Earth solar wind.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

On the Efficacy of Repeat Voltage Holds for Conditioning and Calendar Life Testing of Graphite and Silicon Cells

Voltage-hold (V-hold) protocols have shown promise toward calendar lifetime analysis of cells with graphite (Gr) and silicon (Si) anodes. In this work, repeat V-holds are performed on Gr and Si cells paired with lithium iron phosphate cathodes to delineate their beneficial role in formation and conditioning. We find that V-hold at the top of charge supplements constant current cycling in conditioning the cell to higher capacities for both Gr and Si cells after the first V-hold. A reduced order model provides the irreversible capacity proportions of each V-hold. With each repeat V-hold, parasitic loss of lithium to the solid electrolyte interphase (SEI) decreases on both Gr and Si cells. Gr cells show the square-root-of-time capacity loss behavior within 200 h of V-hold, indicative of its fast relaxation and low impact of reference performance test cycles on the SEI growth. Lifetime estimates from repeat V-holds on Gr can reach years. Si exhibits longer transition times from kinetic to diffusion-limited SEI growth, evidenced by the 400 h and 200 h holds showing square-root-of-time and linear behavior, respectively. Lifetime predictions from repeat V-holds on Si only reach 1–2 months, highlighting its limitations. Recommended duration of V-holds for Si cells should be ≥400 h.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The Implications of Collisions on the Spatial Profile of Electric Potential and the Space-Charge-Limited Current

The space-charge-limited current (SCLC) in a vacuum diode is given by the Child-Langmuir law (CLL), whose electric potential ϕ(x) ∝ (x/D) 4/3 , where x is the spatial coordinate across the gap and D is the gap separation distance. For a collisional diode, SCLC is given by the Mott-Gurney law (MGL) and ϕ(x) ∝ (x/D) 3/2 . Here, we apply a capacitance argument for SCLC and use the transit time from a recent exact solution for collisional SCLC to show that ϕ(x) ∝ (x/D)ξ for a general collisional gap, where 4/3 ≤ ξ ≤ 3/2 . Furthermore, ξ is strictly a function of νT, where ν is the collision frequency and T is the electron transit time. Using this definition of ξ, we estimate the spatial dependence of the electron velocity and use the gap capacitance to derive an analytic equation for collisional SCLC that agrees within ~4.5% of the exact solution that requires solving parametrically through T. This analytic equation for general ξ asymptotically recovers the CLL as ν → 0 and the MGL as ν → ∞. As a result, matching these limits shows that ξ ≈ 1.40 and V ∝ D 2 ν 2 at the transition from a vacuum to a collisional diode for any device condition.

Anodes↗

Uncertainty quantification and reliability assessment for intermodal freight transportation

Intermodal freight optimization models support cost-effective, low-emission, and timely goods movement by coordinating trucks, rail, and barges. These models determine optimal flows, routing, and modal switches while respecting infrastructure and operational constraints. However, their real-world utility is often undermined by pervasive uncertainties-such as fluctuating transportation costs and emissions, variable terminal capacities, and uncertain freight demand-that distort key performance outcomes, including total system cost, carbon footprint, and transit time reliability. This study presents a structured framework for quantifying uncertainty in intermodal freight transportation (IFT) optimization. The framework evaluates how input uncertainty affects system performance and reliability, a critical need for ensuring that model-based decisions remain robust under real-world variability, especially amid volatile fuel prices, shifting demand, and growing disruptions. It integrates three complementary methods: (1) Sobol-based global sensitivity analysis to identify influential parameters affecting cost, emissions, and transit time, (2) Monte Carlo-based capacity perturbation analysis to assess robustness under probabilistic facility disruptions, and (3) Monte Carlo filtering with Bayesian inference to detect threshold-based performance vulnerabilities. The results highlight diesel truck unit cost as the dominant driver of variability. To improve system resilience, planners should prioritize uncertainty in fuel-related parameters when designing intermodal strategies.

Intermodal freight transportation↗