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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Goal-oriented real-time Bayesian inference for linear autonomous dynamical systems with application to digital twins for tsunami early warning

We present a goal-oriented framework for constructing digital twins with the following properties: (1) they employ discretizations of high-fidelity partial differential equation (PDE) models governed by autonomous dynamical systems, leading to large-scale forward problems; (2) they solve a linear inverse problem to assimilate observational data to infer uncertain model components followed by a forward prediction of the evolving dynamics; and (3) the entire end-to-end, data-to-inference-to-prediction computation is carried out without approximation and in real time through a Bayesian framework that rigorously accounts for uncertainties. Several challenges must be overcome to realize this framework, including the large scale of the forward problem, the high dimensionality of the parameter space, and for a class of problems including those we target, the slow decay of the singular values of the parameter-to-observable map. Here we introduce a methodology to overcome these challenges by exploiting the autonomous structure of the forward model to decompose the solution of the inverse problem into a one-time-only offline phase in which the PDE model is solved a limited number of times (equal to the number of sensors), and an online phase that maps well onto GPUs and computes the parameter inference and prediction of quantities of interest in real time, given observational data. Our ultimate goal is to apply this framework to construct digital twins for subduction zones, including Cascadia, to provide early warning for tsunamis generated by megathrust earthquakes. To this end, we demonstrate how our methodology can be used to employ seafloor pressure observations, along with the coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer the earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion (discretized with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 9 ) parameters) and forward predict the tsunami propagation. We present results of an end-to-end inference, prediction, and uncertainty quantification for a representative test problem with $\mathscr{O}$ (10 8 ) inversion parameters for which goal-oriented Bayesian inference is accomplished exactly and in real time, that is, in a matter of seconds.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Tides and tsunamis

Although tides and tsunamis are both shallow water waves, it does not follow that they are equally amenable to an observational program using an orbiting altimeter on a satellite. A numerical feasibility investigation using a hypothetical satellite orbit, real tide observations, and sequentially increased levels of white noise has been conducted to study the degradation of the tidal harmonic constants caused by adding noise to the tide data. Tsunami waves, possibly a foot high and one hundred miles long, must be measured in individual orbits, thus requiring high relative resolution.

Zetler, B. D.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Ionospheric and satellite observations for studying the dynamic behavior of typhoons and the detection of severe storms and tsunamis

Atmospheric acoustic-gravity waves associated with severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, typhoons (hurricanes) and tsunamis can be studied through the coupling between the ionosphere and the troposphere. Reverse ray tracing computations of acoustic-gravity waves observed by an ionospheric Doppler sounder array show that wave sources are in the nearby storm systems and that the waves are excited prior to the storms. Results show that ionospheric observations, together with satellite observations, can contribute to the understanding of the dynamical behavior of typhoons, severe storms and tsunamis.

Hung, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The origin of the 1883 Krakatau tsunamis

Three hypotheses proposed to explain possible causes of the Aug. 27, 1883 Krakatau tsunamis were analyzed: (1) large-scale collapse of the northern part of Krakatau island (Verbeek, 1884), (2) submarine explosion (Yokoyama, 1981), and (3) emplacement of pyroclastic flows (Latter, 1981). A study of timings of the air and sea waves between Krakatau and Batavia, showing that no precise sea wave travel times can be obtained, and a study of the tide and pressure gage records made on August 27, indicating that the air and sea waves were propagated from the focus of eruption on Krakatau island, suggest that neither hypothesis 2 or 3 are sufficiently substantiated. In addition, the event that caused the major air and sea wave was preceded (by 40 min) by a similar, smaller event which generated the second largest tsunami and an air wave. It is concluded that the most likely mechanism for the eruption is a Mt. St. Helens scenario, close to the hypothesis of Verbeek, in which collapse of part of the original volcanic edifice propagated a major explosion.

Francis, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impact-generated Tsunamis: An Over-rated Hazard

A number of authors have suggested that oceanic waves (tsunami) created by the impact of relatively small asteroids into the Earth's oceans might cause widespread devastation to coastal cities. If correct, this suggests that asteroids > 100 m in diameter may pose a serious hazard to humanity and could require a substantial expansion of the current efforts to identify earth-crossing asteroids > 1 km in diameter. The debate on this hazard was recently altered by the release of a document previously inaccessible to the scientific community. In 1968 the US Office of Naval Research commissioned a summary of several decades of research into the hazard proposed by waves generated by nuclear explosions in the ocean. Authored by tsunami expert William Van Dorn, this 173-page report entitled Handbook of Explosion-Generated Water Waves affords new insight into the process of impact wave formation, propagation, and run up onto the shoreline.

Melosh, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Offshore Breaking of Impact Tsunami: Van Dorn was Right

Tsunami generated by the impacts of asteroids and comets into the Earth s oceans are widely recognized as a potentially catastrophic hazard to the Earth s population (e.g. Chapman and Morrison 1994, Nature, 367, 33; Hills et al. 1994, in Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids, (ed. T. Gehrels), 779; Atkinson et al. 2000, Report of the UK Task Force on Potentially Hazardous NEOs; Ward and Asphaug 2000, Icarus, 145, 64). A peculiarity of ocean impacts is the potential global effects of an impact that would otherwise be of only regional or local importance should it occur on land. This is, of course, due to the ability of waves to propagate globally, as seen by the terrible effects of the recent earthquake off the coast of Sumatra. The overall process of an impact tsunami is complex and falls into several distinct phases: 1) initial impact of the bolide into the ocean and formation of a transient cavity in the water, 2) collapse of the cavity and propagation of large waves from the impact center outward over deep water (typically several km in depth), 3) initial effects on wave amplitude as shallower water of the continental slope is reached ("wave shoaling"), possible breaking of waves in relatively shallow water (less than 100 m depth), on continental shelves, and 5) final contact of waves with the shore and their progression onto dry land ("run-up" and "run-in"). Here we report on numerical calculations (and semi-analytic theory) covering phases 3 and 4.

Korycansky, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling Issues in Asteroid-Generated Tsunamis

This report studies tsunamis caused by asteroids, both those that arise from atmospheric blast waves moving across the water surface from airburst asteroids, and those that arise when the asteroid reaches the water and forms a crater. We perform numerical experiments that compare simulations using depth-averaged models (shallow water and several forms of Boussinesq) with linearized Euler (acoustics plus gravity) and ALE hydrocode simulations. We find that neither of the depth-averaged models do a good job of initiating the tsunami, but in some cases can be used to propagate a solution generated by a higher-fidelity method. A list of our conclusions and recommendations for further study is given in Section 5.

Berger, Marsha J.↗
NASA NTRS2022

The 28 November 2020 Landslide, Tsunami, and Outburst Flood – A Hazard Cascade Associated With Rapid Deglaciation at Elliot Creek, British Columbia, Canada

We describe and model the evolution of a recent landslide, tsunami, outburst flood, and sediment plume in the southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, Canada. On November 28, 2020, about 18 million m3 of rock descended 1,000 m from a steep valley wall and traveled across the toe of a glacier before entering a 0.6 km2 glacier lake and producing >100-m high run-up. Water overtopped the lake outlet and scoured a 10-km long channel before depositing debris on a 2-km2 fan below the lake outlet. Floodwater, organic debris, and fine sediment entered a fjord where it produced a 60+km long sediment plume and altered turbidity, water temperature, and water chemistry for weeks. The outburst flood destroyed forest and salmon spawning habitat. Physically based models of the landslide, tsunami, and flood provide real-time simulations of the event and can improve understanding of similar hazard cascades and the risk they pose. Plain Language Summary Glacier retreat exposes unstable slopes that can suddenly fail. We describe and model one such event with far-reaching consequences. The landslide mass (50 million tonnes, equivalent to the combined mass of all Canadian automobiles) entered and suddenly drained a 0.6-km2 alpine lake in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Displaced water destroyed salmon-spawning habitat over a distance of 8.5 km and created a plume of sediment and organic matter more than 60 km from the head of the fjord into which the floodwaters discharged. Physically based models are able to simulate the hazard cascade, and such models could be used to improve hazard and risk assessments of these events under future climate change.

M. Geertsema↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Direct Perturbation Calculations with SCALE TSUNAMI [Abstract]

In nuclear criticality safety analysis, the sensitivity of the eigenvalue keff to uncertainties in nuclear data and its evaluation are crucial. The TSUNAMI sequences within the SCALE code system offer users various options with both multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) 3D Monte Carlo (MC) transport capabilities for calculating keff sensitivity coefficients and storing them in a sensitivity data file (SDF). Each methodology available in TSUNAMI offers distinct advantages and limitations, and its effectiveness can vary based on the specific problem being solved. As a best practice, practitioners typically use the direct perturbation (DP) method as a confirmatory step alongside their sensitivity calculations to verify the accuracy of the sensitivity data generated. In this process, DP calculations are usually performed on select nuclides, those considered most important for validating their total sensitivities. However, because of code limitations, analysts use a workaround method when conducting DP calculations for a single nuclide: rather than perturbing the nuclide's microscopic cross section, an equivalent number density for this nuclide is calculated to reflect the effect of a change in the macroscopic cross section due to a perturbation in the microscopic cross section. The current approach requires rerunning the CSAS criticality calculation several times with model changes. Although this method can yield results with acceptable accuracy, it is labor-intensive and prone to errors.

AZURE: SAMMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Air-coupled tsunamis generated from impacts and airbursts: Our understanding before Hunga-Tonga Hunga-Ha'apai

The effort to prevent or mitigate the effects of an impact on Earth is known as planetary defense. A significant component of planetary defense research involves risk assessment. Much of our understanding of the risk from near-Earth objects comes from the geologic record in the form of impact craters, but not all asteroid impacts are crater-forming events. Small asteroids explode before reaching the surface, generating an airburst, and most impacts into the ocean do not penetrate the water to form a crater in the sea floor. The risk from these non-crater-forming ocean impacts and airbursts is difficult to quantify and represents a significant uncertainty in our assessment of the overall threat. We are currently working to better understand impact scenarios that can generate dangerous tsunamis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time Bayesian Inference at Extreme Scale: A Digital Twin for Tsunami Early Warning Applied to the Cascadia Subduction Zone

We present a Bayesian inversion-based digital twin that employs acoustic pressure data from seafloor sensors, along with 3D coupled acoustic–gravity wave equations, to infer earthquake-induced spatiotemporal seafloor motion in real time and forecast tsunami propagation toward coastlines for early warning with quantified uncertainties. Our target is the Cascadia subduction zone, with one billion parameters. Computing the posterior mean alone would require 50 years on a 512 GPU machine. Instead, exploiting the shift invariance of the parameter-to-observable map and devising novel parallel algorithms, we induce a fast offline–online decomposition. The offline component requires just one adjoint wave propagation per sensor; using MFEM, we scale this part of the computation to the full El Capitan system (43,520 GPUs) with 92% weak parallel efficiency. Moreover, given real-time data, the online component exactly solves the Bayesian inverse and forecasting problems in 0.2 seconds on a modest GPU system, a ten-billion-fold speedup.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2023

Tsunami Early-Warning CubeSat Design Reference Mission (DRM)

Global constellation for near real-time detection, characterization, and warning of dangerous tsunami; detection and evaluation of large earthquakes and volcanic eruptions; and study and continuous monitoring of the ionosphere and climate change.

Tsunami, GNSS-R, CubeSats, Ionosphere, Climate Cha↗
NASA NTRS1965

Sea level and tsunamis

Spacecraft and satellite observations by high resolution optical photography or radar imagery to obtain information about wave coupling mechanism for predicting height of tsunamis

SATELLITE-BORNE RADAR↗
NASA NTRS1993

Arroyo el Mimbral, Mexico, K/T unit: Origin as debris flow/turbidite, not a tsunami deposit

Coarse, spherule-bearing, elastic units have been discovered at 10 marine sites that span the K/T boundary in northeastern Mexico. We examined one of the best exposed sites in Arroyo el Mimbral, northwest of Tampico. The Mimbral outcrop displays a layered elastic unit up to 3 m thick enclosed by marly limestones of the Mendez (Latest Maastrichian) and Velasco (Earliest Danian) Formations. At its thickest point, this channelized elastic unit is comprised of 3 subunits: (1) a basal, poorly-sorted, ungraded calcareous spherule bed 1 m thick containing relict impact glass and shocked mineral grains, (2) a massive set of laminated calcite-cemented sandstones up to 2 m thick with plant debris at its base, (3) capped by a thin (up to 20 cm) set of rippled sandstone layers separated by silty mudstone drapes containing a small (921 pg/g) iridium anomaly. This tripartite elastic unit is conformably overlain by marls of the Velasco Formation. We also visited the La Lajilla site east of Ciudad Victoria; its stratigraphy is similar to Mimbral's, but its elastic beds are thinner and less extensive laterally. The Mimbral elastic unit has been interpreted previously as being deposited by a megawave or tsunami produced by an asteroid impact on nearby Yucatan (Chicxulub crater). However, a presumed 400-m paleodepth of water at the Mimbral site, channeling of the spherule subunit into the underlying Mendez Formation marls, and the overtopping of the basal, spherule-bearing subunit by the laminated sandstone subunit, all suggest a combined debris flow/turbidite origin for this elastic unit similar to that proposed for Upper Pleistocene sand/silt beds occurring elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. In this latter model, the sediment source region for the elastic unit is the lower continental shelf and slope escarpment. For the K/T unit at Mimbral, we propose that thick ejecta blanket deposits composed mostly of spherules were rapidly loaded onto the lower shelf and slope from an impact-generated ejecta curtain.

Bohor, Bruce F.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tsunami Waves Extensively Resurfaced the Shorelines of an Early Martian Ocean

Viking image-based mapping of a widespread deposit covering most of the northern low-lands of Mars led to the proposal by Parker et al. that the deposit represents the vestiges of an enormous ocean that existed approx. 3.4 Ga. Later identified as the Vastitas Borealis Formation, the latest geologic map of Mars identifies this deposit as the Late Hesperian lowland unit (lHl). This deposit is typically bounded by raised lobate margins. In addition, some margins have associated rille channels, which could have been produced sub-aerially by the back-wash of high-energy tsunami waves. Radar-sounding data indicate that the deposit is ice-rich. However, until now, the lack of wave-cut shoreline features and the presence of lobate margins have remained an im-pediment to the acceptance of the paleo-ocean hypothesis.

Vastitas Borealis Formation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Science & Technology Review June 2026: Predicting Tsunamis

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗