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Trajectory Based Operations (TBO)

Today, the FAA is fully engaged in the development and deployment of TBO for the NAS. To realize TBO, the FAA and NAS user community recognize the importance of systems-of-systems thinking and of greater integration across systems, programs, teams, and between research and the field. The ATD-1 Operational Integration Assessment (OIA), helped blaze the trail for this important transition while moving TBFM Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSAS) down the path to deployment. Only a few years later, a comprehensive flight test of Flight Deck Interval Management (FIM) capabilities was executed, complementary and interoperable with traffic flow capabilities that were then emerging for TBO. Together, the ATD-1 tech transfers helped pave the way for the highly integrated systems-of-systems development and acquisition being undertaken for TBO. This session will chart that path to where we are today, and where we are going in the future.

ATD-1, TSAS, FIM, trajectory based operations

Systemic Risk From the Perspective of Climate, Environmental and Disaster Risk Science and Practice

Understanding and managing systemic risk is more important than ever due to our immense global connectivity (e.g., between sectors, such as food-health-water-energy, countries and continents, down to individuals). Despite the fact that the notion of systemic risk is several decades old, the term is used in diverse ways across different disciplines (e.g., financial systems, medicine, earth system sciences, disaster risk research and climate science). Triggered by the repercussions of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, which are clear realization of systemic risk, the perception of systemic risk has often been focused on global and catastrophic or even existential risks. Systemic risk, however, can be seen as a feature of systems at all possible scales (e.g., global, national, regional, local) with system boundaries varying depending on the context. Addressing current societal challenges, such as climate change, in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Based on insights gained and knowledge collected from an expert workshop, literature review and expert elicitation, we give an integrated perspective of climate, environmental and disaster risk science and practice on systemic risk as summarized in a Briefing Note to the International Science Council. We provide an overview of concepts of systemic risk that have evolved over time and identify commonalities across terminologies and perspectives associated with systemic risk used in different contexts. Key attributes of systemic risk are outlined without prescribing a single definition, and information and data requirements are discussed that are essential for a better and more actionable understanding of the systemic nature of risk. Finally, the opportunities to connect research and policy for addressing systemic risk are highlighted.

systemic risk

Systemic Risk

Systemic risk is the name given to impacts that spread within and across systems and sectors (e.g. ecosystems, health, infrastructure and the food sector) via the movements of people, goods, capital and information within and across boundaries (e.g. regions, countries and continents). The spread of these impacts can lead to potentially existential consequences and system collapse across a range of time horizons. Globalization contributes to systemic risk affecting people worldwide. The impacts of climate change or COVID-19 show how the challenges of addressing systemic risk go beyond conventional risk management and governance. Critical system interdependencies, amplified by underlying vulnerabilities, highlight that there is a growing need to better understand cascading impacts, systemic risks and the possible political (governance) and societal responses. This includes improving our understanding of the root causes of systemic risk, both biophysical and socio-economic, and related information needs. Addressing contemporary challenges in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals.

systemic risk

Doing Systems Engineering Without Thinking About It at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center

When asked about his processes in designing a new airplane, Burt Rutan responded: ...there is always a performance requirement. So I start with the basic physics of an airplane that can get those requirements, and that pretty much sizes an airplane... Then I look at the functionality... And then I try a lot of different configurations to meet that, and then justify one at a time, throwing them out... Typically I'll have several different configurations... But I like to experiment, certainly. I like to see if there are other ways to provide the utility. This kind of thinking engineering as a total systems engineering approach is what is being instilled in all engineers at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center.

Bohn-Meyer, Marta

Broadening JPL’s Mission Formulation Paradigm with Human Centered Design

Within NASA’s highly competitive environment for funding, Human Centered Design (HCD) and cybernetics could provide advantages to proposers during the mission formulation phase. Opportunities are limited when it comes to funding new science missions. Proposers are challenged to make a compelling case about the scientific desirability, technical feasibility, and resource viability of their concepts. Organizations follow established processes for proposal development using teams that typically include scientists, engineers, and managers. These team members are highly experienced subject matter experts (SME) in their own disciplines, and can respond to requirements from the solicitation. However, they are typically not trained as designers and communicators. Their approach is rooted within NASA’s science and technology paradigm. How can we improve the proposal development process, refine workflow between team members, and deliver clear and appealing offerings to the stakeholders and evaluators? These questions have been addressed by today’s most innovative companies (e.g., Apple, Google, 3M, Dyson), where the design process is not limited simply to engineering and management, but involves an all-encompassing approach drawing from fields such as social sciences, design, and the arts. Like these commercial enterprises, NASA currently employs systems thinking and integrated design, but can benefit further by moving beyond its current practices, which are mostly driven by rigid engineering, technology, science, and project management considerations. At JPL’s Innovation Foundry and through the Solar System Mission Formulation Office, we broadened this paradigm by including HCD in the mission formulation workflow. Our goal was to create a proposal with improved clarity and appeal, thus helping our team to communicate its message and aid evaluators with their work. In this paper we provide examples and lessons learned from our recent proposal development effort using HCD. We discuss touch points where we infused non-linear designerly approaches and cybernetic circularity into the workflow. Implemented design topics include operational design for team building; process design throughout distinct phases of the proposal development and writing process; communication design for streamlined exchange of information within the team and to stakeholders; interaction design; graphic design; and creating boundary objects. While these approaches may feel new or foreign to SMEs and managers in the aerospace community, they produced significant benefits in this mission formulation effort. We will describe how such approaches can be used to broaden NASA’s technology-driven paradigm through design, thus creating an environment which fosters innovation, improved communication, and strategic advantage for proposers and their organizations.

Turner, Neal

The water–climate nexus: Intersections across sectors

Water security and climate change are important priorities for communities and regions worldwide. The intersections between water and climate change extend across many environmental and human activities. This Primer is intended as an introduction, grounded in examples, for students and others considering the interactions between climate, water, and society. In this Primer, we summarize key intersections between water and climate across four sectors: environment; drinking water, sanitation, and hygiene; food and agriculture; and energy. We begin with an overview of the fundamental water dynamics within each of these four sectors, and then discuss how climate change is impacting water and society within and across these sectors. Emphasizing the relationships and interconnectedness between water and climate change can encourage systems thinking, which can show how activities in one sector may influence activities or outcomes in other sectors. We argue that to achieve a resilient and sustainable water future under climate change, proposed solutions must consider the water–climate nexus to ensure the interconnected roles of water across sectors are not overlooked. Toward that end, we offer an initial set of guiding questions that can be used to inform the development of more holistic climate solutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sensory Motor Coordination in Robonaut

As a participant of the year 2000 NASA Summer Faculty Fellowship Program, I worked with the engineers of the Dexterous Robotics Laboratory at NASA Johnson Space Center on the Robonaut project. The Robonaut is an articulated torso with two dexterous arms, left and right five-fingered hands, and a head with cameras mounted on an articulated neck. This advanced space robot, now driven only teleoperatively using VR gloves, sensors and helmets, is to be upgraded to a thinking system that can find, interact with and assist humans autonomously, allowing the Crew to work with Robonaut as a (junior) member of their team. Thus, the work performed this summer was toward the goal of enabling Robonaut to operate autonomously as an intelligent assistant to astronauts. Our underlying hypothesis is that a robot can develop intelligence if it learns a set of basic behaviors (i.e., reflexes - actions tightly coupled to sensing) and through experience learns how to sequence these to solve problems or to accomplish higher-level tasks. We describe our approach to the automatic acquisition of basic behaviors as learning sensory-motor coordination (SMC). Although research in the ontogenesis of animals development from the time of conception) supports the approach of learning SMC as the foundation for intelligent, autonomous behavior, we do not know whether it will prove viable for the development of autonomy in robots. The first step in testing the hypothesis is to determine if SMC can be learned by the robot. To do this, we have taken advantage of Robonaut's teleoperated control system. When a person teleoperates Robonaut, the person's own SMC causes the robot to act purposefully. If the sensory signals that the robot detects during teleoperation are recorded over several repetitions of the same task, it should be possible through signal analysis to identify the sensory-motor couplings that accompany purposeful motion. In this report, reasons for suspecting SMC as the basis for intelligent behavior will be reviewed. A robot control system for autonomous behavior that uses learned SMC will be proposed. Techniques for the extraction of salient parameters from sensory and motor data will be discussed. Experiments with Robonaut will be discussed and preliminary data presented.

Peters, Richard Alan, II

Implementing Artificial Thinking Autonomy with Model-Based System Engineering

Complex autonomous systems capable of successfully operating independently under ‘known unknowns’ and harsh conditions require paradigm innovation in modern development strategies. In the field of autonomy, developing a system-of-systems which can ostensibly think for itself in the face of ‘unknown unknowns’ is still a field of ongoing research. Maturing the systems architecting and modeling methodologies for developing henceforth named Thinking Autonomous Systems, which are verified with digital mission simulation, can potentially usher in the next generation of artificial intelligence for space exploration. The concept presented in this paper incorporates multiple Model-Based Systems Engineering and simulation methodologies combined as a new paradigm to design a novel, biomimetic thinking autonomy strategy. Anachronistic concepts from classical Kantian philosophy will be leveraged to inspire architectural designs that could be used for complex distributed systems in deep space. To accomplish this, digital transformation of a document-based implementation plan for Thinking Autonomous Systems, generated by experienced NASA software engineers, is implemented for NASA’s Platform for Autonomous Systems by creating descriptive and executable software models in SysML to prototype real-time operating capabilities. This conceptual implementation has been developed by incorporating model-based digital simulations to theorize how a cyberphysical thinking system would achieve specific strategies without crew reliance, while simultaneously being resilient to all operating conditions and remaining functional when devoid of ground communication. Additionally, ensuring that an autonomous system framework is an ethical Artificial Intelligence requires careful consideration of system behavior and accountability, human factors for teaming with a thinking autonomous system, and comparison to other modern approaches used for implementing true autonomy. This paper presents the first steps in formalizing the metacognition required for instantiating a truly Thinking Autonomous System; the approach described symphonizes autonomy characteristics from classical philosophical into a unified software architecture describing human thought. In the future, the foundational models described in this paper can be further leveraged to help advance research into thinking autonomy requirements for future deep space missions as well as for current near-term applications, i.e., living aboard crewed spacecraft like a NASA Gateway cislunar habitat.

Artificial Thought

Reactive behavior, learning, and anticipation

Reactive systems always act, thinking only long enough to 'look up' the action to execute. Traditional planning systems think a lot, and act only after generating fairly precise plans. Each represents an endpoint on a spectrum. It is argued that primitive forms of reasoning, like anticipation, play an important role in reducing the cost of learning and that the decision to act or think should be based on the uncertainty associated with the utility of executing an action in a particular situation. An architecture for an adaptable reactive system is presented and it is shown how it can be augmented with a simple anticipation mechanism that can substantially reduce the cost and time of learning.

Whitehead, Steven D.

Psychophysiological Research Methods to Assess Airline Flight Crew Resilient Performance in High-Fidelity Flight Simulation Scenarios

New concepts in aviation system safety thinking have emerged to consider not only what may go wrong, but also what can be learned when things go right. This approach forms a more comprehensive approach to system safety thinking. A need exists for methods to enable a better understanding of human contributions to aviation safety and how they may inform Safety Management Systems (SMS). A high-fidelity 737-800 simulation study was conducted to study how current type-rated commercial airline flight crews anticipate, monitor, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected disturbances during line operations. A number of dependent measures were collected that included traditional SMS data types, but also non-traditional safety data to include multiple psychophysiological metrics. This paper describes the psychophysiological measures results that evinced the capability of measures to help identify resilient flight crews. Implications for future research and design of future In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems are discussed.

Psychophysiology

Psychophysiological Research Methods to Assess Airline Flight Crew Resilient Performance in High-Fidelity Flight Simulation Scenarios

New concepts in aviation system safety thinking have emerged to consider not only what may go wrong, but also what can be learned when things go right. This approach forms a more comprehensive approach to system safety thinking. A need exists for methods to enable a better understanding of human contributions to aviation safety and how they may inform Safety Management Systems (SMS). A high-fidelity 737-800 simulation study was conducted to study how current type-rated commercial airline flight crews anticipate, monitor, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected disturbances during line operations. A number of dependent measures were collected that included traditional SMS data types, but also non-traditional safety data to include multiple psychophysiological metrics. This paper describes the psychophysiological measures results that evinced the capability of measures to help identify resilient flight crews. Implications for future research and design of future In-time Aviation Safety Management Systems are discussed.

Psychophysiology

Microscopic Measurement: Need for Nuclear Material Sample Specimen Characterization Capability

The Surveillance, Fabrication, and Off-Site Operations team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is beginning an update to the nuclear material machining lab in Superblock. Plutonium and other nuclear materials tend to accelerate the aging process for equipment and machines that would otherwise be maintainable for long lives. They have their lifespans shortened from deteriorated seals, embrittled polymer components, accelerated corrosion, and damage to electronics from exposure to radioactive materials. The cost of installation of equipment into a glove box (GB) tends to outstrip the cost of the equipment itself. Due to the magnification of cost, the historical approach to equipment installs has been to purchase and install the highest-quality and most robust equipment available to maximize time between failures and updates. To make room for the installation of a new lathe, the inspection GB is being moved to a different location within the machining lab. As part of the overall effort, the equipment within the inspection GB is being revisited. Current measurement capabilities are antiquated and starting to become problematic due to age. Advances in metrology are sought for more comprehensive characterization of scientific samples. This document aims to identify several options for the replacement of current measurement equipment and identify a system for purchase and eventual installation. The intention is not to select the cheapest system, but rather to identify a system that best meets the needs of both the operators and principal investigators (PI). Following the convention of the SYSM-5620 Design Thinking and System Engineering, it was determined that a laser confocal measurement system from Keyence is the most suitable option for our programmatic need. Form factor, capability, and maintainability were considered. Along with stakeholder input, to ensure the best decision for the Nuclear Material Technology Program.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Radical is Temporary

I suspect that even if Ken had stayed on, we would have evolved to the state we're in right now. In terms of the nature of the work that we're doing, we've gone from development to maintenance, and so the project team needed to evolve to reflect that change. The analogy I use to describe Hubble is a data factory, and we provide the factory controller. The telescope takes in light and produces pictures, and we're the ones sending all of the control signals and monitoring the temperature, power, and voltages in the factory to make sure the production line is doing its job and that it's not reaching some sort of a stress point. That's basically it. We maintain the Hubble command and control system. I think we're still putting out a good quality product. We still meet our schedule and cost milestones. Every time we make a change to the ground system, we run a suite of tests to make sure that the system still runs as expected, and that it correctly controls the spacecraft. Other than that, provided the interfaces are controlled, everything is okay.

Barrett, Larry

Evaluating the Use of High-Fidelity Simulator Research Methods to Study Airline Flight Crew Resilience

As it evolves, aviation will continue to require integration of a wide range of safety systems and practices, some of which are already in place and others that are yet to be developed. New concepts in system safety thinking have emerged to consider not only what may go wrong, but also what can be learned when things go right during commercial flight operations. Taken together, these complementary perspectives form a more comprehensive approach to systemsafety thinking that can help to recognize and preserve the resilient performance capabilities currently provided by humans. A need exists, however, for research methods to enable better understanding of the human contributions to aviation safety. NASA’s System-Wide Safety Project supports research on using flight simulation methods to study operator resilience and safety-producing behaviors. Building on prior NASA efforts investigating procedural non-adherences during area navigation standard terminal route arrivals, a high-fidelity commercial aviation line operational simulation (LOS) experiment has been designed to study how flight crews anticipate, monitor for, respond to, and learn from expected and unexpected disturbances during these operations. A diverse set of LOS scenarios were developed to simulate highly realistic, complex, but routinely encountered operational situations. Each scenario provided multiple opportunities to collect data on how flight crews manage threats and errors, as well as novel opportunities to observe resilient and safety-producing behaviors. The experimental design, implications for the study of safety-producing behaviors using simulation, and considerations for airline pilot training will be discussed.

Chad L Stephens

Designing for Maintainability and System Availability

The final goal for a delivered system (whether a car, aircraft, avionics box or computer) should be its availability to operate and perform its intended function over its expected design life. Hence, in designing a system, we cannot think in terms of delivering the system and just walking away. The system supplier needs to provide support throughout the operating life of the product. Here, supportability requires an effective combination of reliability, maintainability, logistics and operations engineering (as well as safety engineering) to have a system that is available for its intended use throughout its designated mission lifetime. Maintainability is a key driving element in the effective support and upkeep of the system as well as providing the ability to modify and upgrade the system throughout its lifetime. This paper then, will concentrate on maintainability and its integration into the system engineering and design process. The topics to be covered include elements of maintainability, the total cost of ownership, how system availability, maintenance and logistics costs and spare parts cost effect the overall program costs. System analysis and maintainability will show how maintainability fits into the overall systems approach to project development. Maintainability processes and documents will focus on how maintainability is to be performed and what documents are typically generated for a large scale program. Maintainability analysis shows how trade-offs can be performed for various alternative components. The conclusions summarize the paper and are followed by specific problems for hands-on training.

Lalli, Vincent R.

FATHOMS-RAG: A Framework for the Assessment of Thinking and Observation in Multimodal Systems that use Retrieval Augmented Generation

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) has emerged as a promising paradigm for improving factual accuracy in large language models (LLMs). We introduce a benchmark designed to evaluate RAG pipelines as a whole, evaluating a pipelines ability to ingest several modalities of information. We present (1) a curated dataset of 93 questions designed to evaluate a pipeline's ability to ingest textual data, tables, images, multimodal data, and cross-document multimodal data; (2) a phrase-level recall metric for correctness; (3) a nearest-neighbor embedding classifier in an attempt to classify pipeline hallucinations; (4) a comparative evaluation of 2 pipelines built with open-source retrieval mechanisms and 4 closed-source foundational models; and (5) a third-party human evaluation of the alignment of our correctness and hallucination metrics. We find that closed-source pipelines significantly outperform open-source pipelines in both the correctness and halucination metrics, with a wider performance gap in questions relying on multimodal and cross-document information. We also find after a human evaluation of our correctness and hallucination metric compared with our questions and pipeline responses, average agreement was 4.62 for correctness 4.53 for hallucination detection on a 1-5 Likert scale with 5 being strongly agree with our determination.

Hildebrand, Samuel [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000465963104)

Design Thinking, Lean Startup, and High-Technology Marketing for Human-Centered Systems Engineering

The use of design thinking, lean startup, and high-technology marketing in systems engineering are presented as a case study. All were used and evaluated for their potential to improve systems engineering processes and design, address the challenges of culture change, increase the adoption rate of new technology, and engage with potential users and sponsors more effectively. Multiple examples of training and use on a model-based systems engineering initiative at a large government agency showcase how these approaches were tailored and used successfully for significant benefits such as enhanced collaboration and better problem definition and design solutions. Challenges remain for use by quiet thinkers and with virtual teams. These new ways of thinking are well aligned with creating and using new technologies and are suitable for situations involving innovation, uncertainty, and change within organizations. This case study intends to familiarize systems engineers with the application of these human-centered approaches, to interest systems engineers in incorporating these approaches into their work processes ,and to inspire the systems engineering research community to investigate further.

Karen J. Weiland