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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Relative Source Time Functions, Spectral Ratios, and Near‐Source Spallation in the Source Physics Experiment Phase I Chemical Explosions

The Source Physics Experiment (SPE) Phase I was composed of six chemical explosions at the Nevada National Security Sites (NNSS) between 2011 and 2016. The experiment provided a robust set of dense, local to regional distance observations suitable for characterizing shallow chemical explosions located within the same borehole. We investigate the time-dependent source processes of each chemical explosion using Relative Source Time Function (RSTF) estimation, derived from five linear seismometer profiles located between 100 and 2000 m of the shot location. The RSTF estimate provide a detailed characterization of each chemical explosion's time-history. Subsequent modeling efforts suggest these measurements may be useful for precise characterization of explosion processes and spallation. RSTF estimation allows us to expand our understanding of the SPE Phase I chemical explosion series. Application of these techniques contributes to our understanding of explosion source physics and facilitates future applications to additional seismic source experiments and characterization of explosion phenomenology.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Egg yolk as a model for gelation: From rheometry to flow physics

Egg yolks are an excellent model for studying sol-gel transitions, particularly the power law viscoelasticity that defines the critical point of gelation. However, prior studies lack comprehensive datasets and fail to visualize flow behavior linked to temperature and time-dependent linear and nonlinear rheology. Here, we present a detailed dataset characterizing egg yolk viscoelasticity across temperature, time, and forcing amplitude using oscillatory shear, step strain, step stress, and constant high strain rate. Novel protorheology visualizations link rheological properties with observable flow behavior. Our findings highlight the nuanced determination of the critical gel point, emphasizing observation timescale dependencies. We compare methods to identify critical temperatures for gelation, including power law viscoelasticity, moduli crossover, diverging zero-shear viscosity, and emerging equilibrium elastic modulus, while visualizing flow consequences near these transitions. Egg yolk is an accessible, realistic, and nontoxic material relevant to the physicist and the chef alike, making it ideal for understanding the rheology of critical gels. By integrating protorheology photos and videos with rigorous rheometric data, we deepen the understanding of critical gels, with broader impacts for studying other materials with sol-gel transitions.

Marsh, Maxwell C. [Department of Mechanical Scienc↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transient hydroperoxyalkyl intermediates (•QOOH) in isopentane oxidation. II. Isomer-resolved unimolecular dynamics

Transient carbon-centered hydroperoxyalkyl intermediates (•QOOH) in isopentane oxidation are characterized by their time- and energy-resolved unimolecular dissociation dynamics to hydroxyl (OH) and cyclic ether products. Two distinct •QOOH isomers are examined with radical sites at a primary carbon of one of the methyl groups (β-Me) or a secondary carbon (β-Et) of the ethyl group. Energy-dependent unimolecular rates are obtained from the time-dependent appearance of OH products for the two isomers and compared with statistical microcanonical rates computed using RRKM theory, including heavy-atom tunneling, based on high-level theoretical calculations. A benchmark-corrected approach is utilized to compute high-accuracy stationary-point energies, most importantly, transition-state barriers, for the •QOOH_Me and •QOOH_Et isomers in isopentane oxidation, building on higher-level reference calculations for the oxidation of ethane (C 2 H 5 O 2 ) and propane (C 3 H 7 O 2 ), respectively. Here, the measured rates are compared with RRKM calculations incorporating the benchmark-corrected transition-state parameters, a vibrationally adiabatic multidimensional hindered-rotor treatment of key torsions, and quantum tunneling. Agreement between experiment and theory validates the statistical description and shows faster decay for •QOOH_Et due to its lower barrier. Both β-QOOH isomers decay almost exclusively to OH + cyclic ether products under the conditions studied.

Oxidation processes↗
DOE OSTI2026

Polarons are probes of the dynamic nanoscale environments found in electrochemically doped π-conjugated polymers

Charge carriers (i.e., polarons) in electrochemically doped organic (semi)conductors are proposed to be regulated by several physicochemical features, including the chemical compositions and structures of the π-conjugated frameworks of the semiconductor building blocks, the chemistry of the electrolyte (considering both the salt and solvent), multiscale and time-dependent morphology variations across the material as a function of electrochemical processes, and assorted permutations of these and other factors. To address these hypotheses, we investigate the energetic, optoelectronic, chemical, and local structural properties of negative polarons (radical anions) as a function of electrochemical doping in the donor–acceptor, π-conjugated redox copolymer P(NDI2OD-T2), also referred to as N2200. A critical finding is that there is not just “one type” of polaron in electrochemically doped P(NDI2OD-T2). Rather, an ensemble of polarons exists, with the polarons having optoelectronic signatures that are defined by their nanoscale environments. Importantly, the polaron optical signatures serve as local probes for how the operando electrochemical environments are dynamically working in concert to facilitate charge transport. Collectively, the distinctive and extensive integration of theory and measurement science presented here establishes a baseline for the roles that semiconductor and electrolyte chemistries and dynamic structural features have on polarons in electrochemically doped organic semiconductors and how these factors influence the energetics and rates of polaron transport.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Systems Engineering and Analysis in Support of a US Federal Staging Facility for UNF

The US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Office of Spent Fuel and High-Level Waste Disposition is examining a set of system options and conducting supporting analyses to inform the development of an integrated waste management system, which may include one or more federal staging facilities (FSFs) for used nuclear fuel (UNF ) sited using a collaborative siting process. This paper focuses on the ongoing activities in two systems engineering and analysis work areas: (1) data and tools development, validation, and maintenance and (2) systems engineering execution. Within the first work area, the STANDARDS 5.0 UNF data and analysis tool, formerly known as UNF-ST&DARDS, is being developed as a foundational resource to assist in the management of UNF data. It has the key capability to model UNF throughout the entire back end of the fuel cycle. STANDARDS also includes several compatible analysis tools for the time-dependent characterization of UNF and related systems by interfacing with the SCALE code system for nuclear analysis and COBRA-SFS for thermal analysis. Also, within the data and tools area is the Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), which is an agent-based simulation software tool expressly designed to be capable of modeling the waste management system, including the transportation of UNF to and from a FSF. NGSAM has been developed to enable informed decision-making by providing the capability to analyze various potential system options for the management of UNF and high-level radioactive waste. Finally, in the systems engineering execution area, the team has begun to apply a disciplined systems engineering approach at the system level along with supporting analysis to guide the development of the FSF project requirements (including associated transportation infrastructure). Systems engineering principles and practices and their adaptation/application to design and development activities will ensure that the waste management system is effectively implemented as work proceeds. Other activities include investigating the implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters related to waste management systems, such as UNF acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, and different assumed facility operation start dates. Keywords: federal staging facility (FSF), used nuclear fuel (UNF), integrated waste management (IWM) system, Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM), STANDARDS, systems engineering

Joseph, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum Routing and Entanglement Dynamics Through Bottlenecks

To implement arbitrary quantum circuits in architectures with restricted interactions, one may effectively simulate all-to-all connectivity by routing quantum information. We consider the entanglement dynamics and routing between two regions only connected through an intermediate “bottleneck” region with few qubits. In such systems, where the entanglement rate is restricted by a vertex boundary rather than an edge boundary of the underlying interaction graph, existing results such as the small incremental entangling theorem give only a trivial constant lower bound on the routing time (the minimum time to perform an arbitrary permutation). We significantly improve the lower bound on the routing time in systems with a vertex bottleneck. Specifically, for any system with two regions 𝐿,𝑅 with 𝑁 𝐿 ,𝑁 𝑅 qubits, respectively, coupled only through an intermediate region 𝐶 with 𝑁 𝐶 qubits, for any 𝛿 > 0 we show a lower bound of Ω⁢(𝑁$^{1−𝛿}_{𝑅}$/√𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑁 𝐶 ) on the Hamiltonian quantum routing time when using piecewise time-independent Hamiltonians, or time-dependent Hamiltonians subject to a smoothness condition. We also prove an upper bound on the average amount of bipartite entanglement between 𝐿 and 𝐶,𝑅 that can be generated in time 𝑡 by such architecture-respecting Hamiltonians in systems constrained by vertex bottlenecks, improving the scaling in the system size from 𝑂⁡(𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑡) to 𝑂⁡(√𝑁 𝐿⁢ 𝑡). As a special case, when applied to the star graph (i.e., one vertex connected to 𝑁 leaves), we obtain an Ω⁡(√𝑁 1−𝛿 ) lower bound on the routing time and on the time to prepare 𝑁/2 Bell pairs between the vertices. We also show that, in systems of free particles, we can route optimally on the star graph in time Θ⁡(√𝑁) using Hamiltonian quantum routing, obtaining a speedup over gate-based routing, which takes time Θ⁡(𝑁).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Three-dimensional simulation of the University of Hawai‘i FEL oscillator with cavity desynchronization

In this paper, we present three-dimensional, time-dependent simulations of the University of Hawai‘i (UH) at Mānoa free-electron laser (FEL) oscillator. Using beam parameters from the UH facility, we study the pass-by-pass evolution of the radiation field, including its temporal, spectral, and transverse properties. At nominal bunch length, the radiation pulse develops temporal spiking near saturation, together with sideband formation and increased sensitivity to machine timing jitter. Our results show that modest cavity desynchronization can enhance the radiation energy by 63%. Large cavity desynchronization, on the other hand, can effectively suppress the spiking instabilities and improve robustness to timing fluctuations. Finally, we simulate a short-bunch operational mode with a bunch length comparable to the slippage length, which accelerates saturation and further amplifies the FEL power. Overall, these results provide a quantitative foundation for pulse control studies in the UH FEL oscillator and a critical benchmark for future experimental validation and machine optimization.

free-electron lasers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dynamics of Density Fluctuations in Atomic Nuclei

We study the spatiotemporal patterns of density fluctuations in 16,24O and 48Ca using nuclear interactions from chiral effective field theory and the time-dependent coupled-cluster method. We find that two-particle–two-hole excitations generate small-amplitude fluctuations that are fast, short-ranged, and of stochastic character.

Bonaiti, Francesca [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000239261609)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Strong-field Driven Sub-cycle Band Structure Modulation and Dephasing Control

In this work, we present measurements of ultrafast electric-field observables in magnesium oxide using a non-resonant nonlinear optical interaction. Using field observables, we show that strong laser fields modulate the band structure on sub-cycle timescales, thereby altering the material’s nonlinear optical response. We perform time-dependent perturbation theory calculations using a field-dependent dispersion relation and semiconductor Bloch equation calculations, both of which agree with experimental observations. Furthermore, we extract pulse decay times from the real-time signal electric field envelope and show sub-cycle control of dephasing times. Our work offers a new perspective on strong-field-driven electron dynamics in solids through electric-field observables. The demonstrated attosecond modulation of the nonlinear response could have important implications for quantum light generation and quantum spectroscopy using nonlinear optical processes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

DEPRECATED AI-Batt-OS (Autonomous Identification of Battery Life Models - Open Source) [SWR 21-17]

DEPRECATED. This repository was archived by the owner on Jun 30, 2026. It is now read-only. Open source implementation of some of the methods utilized by AI-Batt, a battery lifetime modeling and analysis toolkit provided by the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR). This software demonstrates the use of bi-level optimization and symbolic regression techniques to semi-autonomously identify algebraic models predicting the capacity fade of lithium-ion batteries during calendar aging. Modeling the degradation of batteries is a complex task, due to the difficulty in separating the time-dependent and time-independent factors impacting cell level degradation, across multiple data series with different numbers of measurements and/or data quality. Bi-level optimization enables model parameters to be optimized to either the entire data set or to individual data series, allowing statistical disambiguation of global behaviors (data series independent) and local behaviors (data series dependent). Symbolic regression is used to automatically search for optimal low-dimesional models predicting the variation of locally optimized parameters versus time-independent experimental variables from millions of possible models, resulting in a more accurate and repeatable model identification process than is possible by a manual search. The provided tools also implement cross-validation and bootstrap resampling schemes, empowering statistical model comparison/selection and quantification of model uncertainties. An example script replicates the results from the manuscript "Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning", submitted to ECS. All code is written in MATLAB. Requires the Statistics and Machine Learning Toolbox. Contact Dr. Paul Gasper at Paul.Gasper@nlr.gov for any questions.

Gasper, Paul [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL↗
DOE OSTI2026

IER-620 CED-3b: Experiment Execution Summary for the Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experiments (PNDA) with Propylene Glycol and Mobilmet 423

There is a strong need for new benchmarks to validate neutron thermal scattering laws (TSLs). Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has designed a Pulsed-Neutron Die Away (PNDA) testbed for this purpose. The experiment has a deuterium-tritium (D-T) neutron generator that impinges a 10 -4 s, mono-energetic pulse of 14.1 MeV neutrons on a target sample. After the pulse, the neutron population moderates and establishes a thermal equilibrium within the sample, with a fundamental spatial mode and characteristic decay-time eigenvalue, ⍺. The ⍺ eigenvalue can be extracted from the experimental measurements of the time-dependent neutron flux coming off the surface of the sample and can then be used as an integral parameter (similar to k eff ) to validate nuclear data involved with neutron migration, thermalization, and absorption. For moderating materials and geometric configurations, the ⍺ eigenvalue is heavily dependent on thermal neutron scattering of the target material. For that reason, a PNDA experiment can have a higher sensitivity to TSLs than is commonly available with the k eff parameter in critical experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comments on the paper “Eliminating beam-induced depolarizing effects in the hydrogen jet target for high-precision proton beam polarimetry at the Electron-Ion Collider” (Part I)

A critical review of the methodology used in F. Rathmann et al., Phys. Rev. Accel. Beams 29, 021001 (2026), to evaluate beam-induced depolarization of the Atomic Polarized Hydrogen Gas Jet (HJET) target at the Electron–Ion Collider (EIC) is presented. It is shown that several key assumptions underlying that analysis—including the introduction of a photon emission threshold, the application of Fermi’s Golden Rule to coherent hyperfine transitions, the interpretation of power broadening as a physical linewidth increase, and the treatment of spatial magnetic fields—are either incorrect or internally inconsistent. As a consequence, the predicted large depolarization effects are demonstrated to be artifacts of the adopted methodology rather than genuine physical phenomena. A consistent quantum-mechanical treatment based on the time-dependent Schrödinger equation shows that beam-induced depolarization probabilities at the EIC are negligibly small.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Integration of Online Cross-Section Generation Capability with Depletion and Transient Solvers in Griffin

Griffin is a Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)-based reactor multiphysics analysis application jointly developed by Argonne and Idaho National Laboratories under the DOENE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. In FY25, an online crosssection generation capability based on the Self-Shielding Application Programming Interface (SSAPI) was demonstrated for TRISO-fueled reactor problems under steady-state conditions. This fiscal year, that capability was extended to support depletion and transient multiphysics calculations, enabling high-fidelity analyses that generate self-shielded cross sections on the fly from the actual evolving composition and temperature states rather than from pre-tabulated libraries. For depletion, a two-way coupling was established in which SSAPI computes compact-averaged self-shielded cross sections that the depletion solver then uses to advance the Bateman equations, with the updated compositions returned to SSAPI at each step; the depletion module was refactored to support both library-based and SSAPI-based cross sections, and additional logic was added to track daughter isotopes and to exclude minor isotopes for efficiency. For transient analysis, the SSAPI multigroup library was extended with the kinetics data required for time-dependent calculations, the Improved Quasi-Static (IQS) scheme was coupled with SSAPI, and several supporting capabilities were implemented, including a self-shielding treatment that lets control rods and drums move within a self-shielded model, which had previously been impossible and had ruled out rod- and drum-movement transients with on-the-fly cross sections altogether, a new mixing scheme for delayed-neutron precursor decay constants, a checkpoint-based restart workflow, and performance improvements such as pointwise cross-section interpolation and the bypassing of unnecessary Dancoff factor calculations. The implemented capabilities were verified against Serpent Monte Carlo solutions. For depletion, a prismatic pin-cell problem based on a Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Very High Temperature Reactor benchmark showed excellent agreement, with eigenvalue differences within 200 pcm over the entire burnup range (up to 140 MWD/kgU) and fission-product and actinide inventories agreeing to within 0.8% and 2.5%, respectively; a heat-pipe microreactor assembly problem with a much higher fuel loading confirmed the same behavior and quantified the bias introduced when the multigroup equivalence effect is neglected. For transient analysis, a pin-cell problem with a step reactivity insertion and temperature feedback reproduced the analytically expected asymptotic power and showed close agreement between the direct and IQS solutions, and a two-dimensional microreactor core problem with control-drum rotation exercised the new moving-drum self-shielding treatment and demonstrated successful coupling of the online crosssection generation with both the direct and IQS transient methods. The capability was further exercised on a full-core pebble-bed problem, in which Griffin was coupled with the System Analysis Module (SAM) to simulate load-following operation of the gPBR with the Doppler feedback resolved at the TRISO fuel kernel temperature. These developments in Griffin provide a convenient, high-fidelity approach to cross-section generation for advanced thermal reactors with geometrically complex and highly heterogeneous configurations, including TRISO-fueled prismatic and pebble-bed systems, and support steady-state, depletion, and transient multiphysics calculations. They also enable self-shielded cross sections to be evaluated directly at the actual coupled state of the system, thereby establishing a foundation for high-fidelity, fully coupled multiphysics analysis of advanced reactors

Park, H.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pulsed-Neutron Experiments at the Inherently Safe Subcritical Assembly

The pulsed neutron technique is a powerful, dynamic method to assay the reactivity of a multiplying system. This work presents the novel application of the pulsed neutron technique to the Inherently Safe Subcritical Assembly, an experimental configuration accepted by the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook. The experiments were replicated with COG11.3, a continuous-energy Monte Carlo code. The pulsed neutron data were analyzed using the Sjöstrand and Gozani area-ratio methods and by extracting the prompt neutron decay constant. Subsequent static k-eigenvalue and 𝛼-eigenvalue simulations were also performed for the same configurations. Neutron detector dead-time effects from the experiments were corrected using the Backwards Extrapolation Method and shown to have a negligible impact on the estimated reactivities. The results highlight that capturing time-dependent effects like delayed neutron precursor buildup are essential to accurately reproduce experimental results. They also highlight the importance of shielding the detectors from generator source neutrons in deeply subcritical configurations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
NASA NTRS1995

Single-drop reactive extraction/extractive reaction with forced convective diffusion and interphase mass transfer

An algorithm has been developed for time-dependent forced convective diffusion-reaction having convection by a recirculating flow field within the drop that is hydrodynamically coupled at the interface with a convective external flow field that at infinity becomes a uniform free-streaming flow. The concentration field inside the droplet is likewise coupled with that outside by boundary conditions at the interface. A chemical reaction can take place either inside or outside the droplet, or reactions can take place in both phases. The algorithm has been implemented, and for comparison results are shown here for the case of no reaction in either phase and for the case of an external first order reaction, both for unsteady behavior. For pure interphase mass transfer, concentration isocontours, local and average Sherwood numbers, and average droplet concentrations have been obtained as a function of the physical properties and external flow field. For mass transfer enhanced by an external reaction, in addition to the above forms of results, we present the enhancement factor, with the results now also depending upon the (dimensionless) rate of reaction.

Kleinman, Leonid S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Pack Shape Optimization using Transient Heat Conduction Coupled with Cell-Discharge Analysis

Battery electric systems exhibit significant time-dependence, especially when evaluated in the context of an aircraft mission profile with continually changing power demands. Additionally, when evaluating battery-powered aircraft concepts, it is important to accurately compute the temperature of the batteries and properly characterize the thermal response of the system. The temperature of the batteries has a significant impact on cell performance, in addition to safety considerations of maintaining battery temperatures below their operating limit. Because of these considerations, battery models for preliminary design and optimization of aircraft should include the capability to accurately compute the temperature distribution within the battery pack. Furthermore, battery pack designs should be as light-weight as possible to maximize the pack energy density, while also considering battery temperature limits. Here, we demonstrate a simultaneous trajectory and shape optimization of a battery pack concept, using a transient heat transfer finite element model coupled with a time-varying cell-discharge battery model to provide this capability. Including the transient finite element problem in the loop enables accurate temperatures that can be passed back to the cell discharge model, while the cell discharge model can supply the finite element model with time-varying heat boundary conditions to the finite element problem, further benefiting the fidelity of the thermal response of the batteries. We first demonstrate the coupling capability between the battery cell-discharge model and the transient finite-element heat transfer through an optimization which computes the optimal current profile for the battery pack while ensuring the battery temperatures remain below their operational limit. We then build on this optimization by adding shape optimization to the problem, which allows us to consider a composite objective function which also minimizes the mass of the battery pack, while also producing an optimal current discharge profile.

Optimization↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Fidelity Modeling Approach for Coupling Thermal, Fluid, and Neutronic Analysis in an NTP Engine

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP), with its increased efficiency compared to traditional rocket engines, is a potentially enabling technology for space missions of higher complexity, such as delivering heavy machinery or crew to the moon or other planets. Thus, exploring modeling approaches that can effectively couple the thermal, fluid, and neutronic behaviors of NTP reactors is essential to mitigate cost and schedule challenges with hardware development. This paper details one such approach which utilizes Cardinal to unify reactor physics analysis performed using OpenMC, heat transfer analysis performed using the MOOSE framework, and thermal hydraulic analysis performed using the MOOSE Thermal Hydraulic Module. This approach is demonstrated with a proof of concept that focuses on a legacy reactor geometry from the historic NERVA program. This preliminary model found an overprediction in, when compared to the reference data, axial power peaking and the temperatures of both solids and fluids by roughly 20%. It is clear, however, that the model conserved a number of broad trends, and a few model refinements should reduce the observed error. This approach has definite merit and should enable the production of informative results for more modern NTP systems. This work is a first step in creating a transient reactor model that can be updated across a sequence of time steps based on continually fluctuating, time-dependent boundary conditions.

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗