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The Impact of Prior Biosphere Models in the Inversion of Global Terrestrial CO2 Fluxes by Assimilating OCO-2 Retrievals

Atmospheric mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) are largely controlled by anthropogenic emissions and biospheric fluxes. The processes controlling terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere carbon exchange are currently not fully understood, resulting in terrestrial biospheric models having significant differences in the quantification of biospheric CO2 fluxes. Atmospheric transport models assimilating measured (in situ or space-borne) CO2 concentrations to estimate "top-down" fluxes, generally use these biospheric CO2 fluxes as a priori information. Most of the flux inversion estimates result in substantially different spatio-temporal posteriori estimates of regional and global biospheric CO2 fluxes. The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite mission dedicated to accurately measure column CO2 (XCO2) allows for an improved understanding of global biospheric CO2 fluxes. OCO-2 provides much-needed CO2 observations in data-limited regions facilitating better global and regional estimates of "top-down" CO2 fluxes through inversion model simulations. The specific objectives of our research are to: 1) conduct GEOS-Chem 4D-Var assimilation of OCO-2 observations, using several state-of-the-science biospheric CO2 flux models as a priori information, to better constrain terrestrial CO2 fluxes, and 2) quantify the impact of different biospheric model prior fluxes on OCO-2-assimilated a posteriori CO2 flux estimates. Here we present our assessment of the importance of these a priori fluxes by conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) using simulated OCO-2 observations with known "true" fluxes.

Biosphere↗

Progress in Atmospheric Carbon Monitoring Using NASA's GEOS Model and Data from the OCO and GOSAT Missions

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) produces a variety of carbon products based the synthesis of satellite remote sensing data and outputs of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). This includes bottom-up surface fluxes due to fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, terrestrial biospheric exchange, and ocean exchangeconstrained by measurements of nighttime lights, fire radiative power, normalized difference vegetation index, and ocean color. These fluxes are the basis of top-down estimates of carbon concentrations and fluxes. In particular, the GMAO system processes retrievals of column carbon dioxide (XCO2) from GOSAT and OCO-2 to produce a high-resolution, long-term global analysis of CO2 in three dimensions every 6 hours. Here, we discuss the potential applications of such products for satellite intercomparison and evaluation against independent, non-coincident data. We also highlight the ability to provide monthly global atmospheric growth rates inferred from the assimilated CO2 concentration product. Finally, we discuss the challenges facing such products including bias correction and the estimation and analysis of model transport errors.

Weir, B.↗

Reliability Assessment Approach for Stirling Convertors and Generators

Stirling power conversion is being considered for use in a Radioisotope Power System for deep-space science missions because it offers a multifold increase in the conversion efficiency of heat to electric power. Quantifying the reliability of a Radioisotope Power System that utilizes Stirling power conversion technology is important in developing and demonstrating the capability for long-term success. A description of the Stirling power convertor is provided, along with a discussion about some of the key components. Ongoing efforts to understand component life, design variables at the component and system levels, related sources, and the nature of uncertainties is discussed. The requirement for reliability also is discussed, and some of the critical areas of concern are identified. A section on the objectives of the performance model development and a computation of reliability is included to highlight the goals of this effort. Also, a viable physics-based reliability plan to model the design-level variable uncertainties at the component and system levels is outlined, and potential benefits are elucidated. The plan involves the interaction of different disciplines, maintaining the physical and probabilistic correlations at all the levels, and a verification process based on rational short-term tests. In addition, both top-down and bottom-up coherency were maintained to follow the physics-based design process and mission requirements. The outlined reliability assessment approach provides guidelines to improve the design and identifies governing variables to achieve high reliability in the Stirling Radioisotope Generator design.

Shah, Ashwin R.↗

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗

Telerobotics - Problems and research needs

With major emphasis on simulation, a university laboratory telerobotics facility permits problems to be approached by groups of graduate students. Helmet-mounded displays provide realism; the slaving of the display to the human operator's viewpoint gives a sense of 'telepresence' that may be useful for prolonged tasks. Using top-down three-dimensional model control of distant images allows distant images to be reduced to a few parameters to update the model used for display to the human operator in a preview mode to circumvent, in part, the communication delay. Also, the model can be used as a format for supervisory control and permit short-term local autonomous operations. Image processing algorithms can be made simpler and faster without trying to construct sensible images from the bottom. Control studies of telerobots lead to preferential manual control modes and basic paradigms for human motion and thence, perhaps, to redesign of robotic control, trajectory path planning, and rehabilitation prosthetics.

Stark, Lawrence↗

Progress in Modeling Global Atmospheric CO2 Fluxes and Transport: Results from Simulations with Diurnal Fluxes

Progress in better determining CO2 sources and sinks will almost certainly rely on utilization of more extensive and intensive CO2 and related observations including those from satellite remote sensing. Use of advanced data requires improved modeling and analysis capability. Under NASA Carbon Cycle Science support we seek to develop and integrate improved formulations for 1) atmospheric transport, 2) terrestrial uptake and release, 3) biomass and 4) fossil fuel burning, and 5) observational data analysis including inverse calculations. The transport modeling is based on meteorological data assimilation analysis from the Goddard Modeling and Assimilation Office. Use of assimilated met data enables model comparison to CO2 and other observations across a wide range of scales of variability. In this presentation we focus on the short end of the temporal variability spectrum: hourly to synoptic to seasonal. Using CO2 fluxes at varying temporal resolution from the SIB 2 and CASA biosphere models, we examine the model's ability to simulate CO2 variability in comparison to observations at different times, locations, and altitudes. We find that the model can resolve much of the variability in the observations, although there are limits imposed by vertical resolution of boundary layer processes. The influence of key process representations is inferred. The high degree of fidelity in these simulations leads us to anticipate incorporation of realtime, highly resolved observations into a multiscale carbon cycle analysis system that will begin to bridge the gap between top-down and bottom-up flux estimation, which is a primary focus of NACP.

Collatz, G. James↗

A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

Pielke, Roger A., Sr.↗

Alaskan Permafrost Analogs of Martian Small Valley Networks, Thermokarst, Terrain Softening, Terraces, and Volcanic Craters

A geomorphic landscape analog in the Bering Land Bridge National Preserve (Alaska) offers a model for Mars where (1) fluvial and alluvial deposition, volcanism, and other processes first produced a layered ice-rich upper crust, and then (2) severe permafrost conditions (mild by today's Martian standards) and heterogeneous heat flow and volcanism have modified this terrain to produce a geomorphic areal mosaic that is alternately dominated by (a) geothermal meltwater and sublimation (bottom-up heat flow) and (b) surface-driven meltwater and sublimation (top-down heat flow).

Kargel, Jeffrey S.↗

Bayesian Safety Risk Modeling of Human-Flightdeck Automation Interaction

Usage of automatic systems in airliners has increased fuel efficiency, added extra capabilities, enhanced safety and reliability, as well as provide improved passenger comfort since its introduction in the late 80's. However, original automation benefits, including reduced flight crew workload, human errors or training requirements, were not achieved as originally expected. Instead, automation introduced new failure modes, redistributed, and sometimes increased workload, brought in new cognitive and attention demands, and increased training requirements. Modern airliners have numerous flight modes, providing more flexibility (and inherently more complexity) to the flight crew. However, the price to pay for the increased flexibility is the need for increased mode awareness, as well as the need to supervise, understand, and predict automated system behavior. Also, over-reliance on automation is linked to manual flight skill degradation and complacency in commercial pilots. As a result, recent accidents involving human errors are often caused by the interactions between humans and the automated systems (e.g., the breakdown in man-machine coordination), deteriorated manual flying skills, and/or loss of situational awareness due to heavy dependence on automated systems. This paper describes the development of the increased complexity and reliance on automation baseline model, named FLAP for FLightdeck Automation Problems. The model development process starts with a comprehensive literature review followed by the construction of a framework comprised of high-level causal factors leading to an automation-related flight anomaly. The framework was then converted into a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) using the Hugin Software v7.8. The effects of automation on flight crew are incorporated into the model, including flight skill degradation, increased cognitive demand and training requirements along with their interactions. Besides flight crew deficiencies, automation system failures and anomalies of avionic systems are also incorporated. The resultant model helps simulate the emergence of automation-related issues in today's modern airliners from a top-down, generalized approach, which serves as a platform to evaluate NASA developed technologies

Ancel, Ersin↗

Switching between simple cognitive tasks: the interaction of top-down and bottom-up factors

How do top-down factors (e.g., task expectancy) and bottom-up factors (e.g., task recency) interact to produce an overall level of task readiness? This question was addressed by factorially manipulating task expectancy and task repetition in a task-switching paradigm. The effects of expectancy and repetition on response time tended to interact underadditively, but only because the traditional binary task-repetition variable lumps together all switch trials, ignoring variation in task lag. When the task-recency variable was scaled continuously, all 4 experiments instead showed additivity between expectancy and recency. The results indicated that expectancy and recency influence different stages of mental processing. One specific possibility (the configuration-execution model) is that task expectancy affects the time required to configure upcoming central operations, whereas task recency affects the time required to actually execute those central operations.

Cognition↗

Contingent attentional capture or delayed allocation of attention?

Under certain circumstances, external stimuli will elicit an involuntary shift of spatial attention, referred to as attentional capture. According to the contingent involuntary orienting account (Folk, Remington, & Johnston, 1992), capture is conditioned by top-down factors that set attention to respond involuntarily to stimulus properties relevant to one's behavioral goals. Evidence for this comes from spatial cuing studies showing that a spatial cuing effect is observed only when cues have goal-relevant properties. Here, we examine alternative, decision-level explanations of the spatial cuing effect that attribute evidence of capture to postpresentation delays in the voluntary allocation of attention, rather than to on-line involuntary shifts in direct response to the cue. In three spatial cuing experiments, delayed-allocation accounts were tested by examining whether items at the cued location were preferentially processed. The experiments provide evidence that costs and benefits in spatial cuing experiments do reflect the on-line capture of attention. The implications of these results for models of attentional control are discussed.

Attention↗

Next-Generation Aura/OMI NO2 and SO2 Products

The measurement of both SO2 and NO2 gases are recognized as an essential component of atmospheric composition missions. We describe current capabilities and limitations of the operational Aura/OMI NO2 and SO2 data that have been used by a large number of researchers. Analyses of the data and validation studies have brought to light a number of areas in which these products can be expanded and improved. Major improvements for new NASA standard (SP) NO2 product include more accurate tropospheric and stratospheric column amounts, along with much improved error estimates and diagnostics. Our approach uses a monthly NO2 climatology based on the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry-transport model and takes advantage of OMI data from cloudy scenes to find clean areas where the contribution from the trap NO2 column is relatively small. We then use a new filtering, interpolation and smoothing techniques for separating the stratospheric and tropospheric components of NO2, minimizing the influence of a priori information. The new algorithm greatly improves the structure of stratospheric features relative to the original SP. For the next-generation OMI SO2 product we plan to implement operationally the offline iterative spectral fitting (ISF) algorithm and re-process the OMI Level-2 SO2 dataset using a priori SO2 and aerosol profiles, clouds, and surface reflectivity appropriate for observation conditions. This will improve the ability to detect and quantify weak tropospheric SO2 loadings. The new algorithm is validated using aircraft in-situ data during field campaigns in China (2005 and 2008) and in Maryland (Frostburg, 2010 and DISCOVER-AQ in July 2011). The height of the SO2 plumes will also be estimated for high SO2 loading cases (e.g., volcanic eruptions). The same SO2 algorithm will be applied to the data from OMPS sensor to be launched on NPP satellite later this year. The next-generation NO2 and SO2 products will provide critical information (e.g., averaging kernels) for evaluation of chemistry-transport models, for data assimilation, and to impose top-down constraints on the SO2 and NO2 emission sources.

Krotkov, Nickolay↗

Understanding Climate Policy Data Needs. NASA Carbon Monitoring System Briefing: Characterizing Flux Uncertainty, Washington D.C., 11 January 2012

Climate policy in the United States is currently guided by public-private partnerships and actions at the local and state levels. This mitigation strategy is made up of programs that focus on energy efficiency, renewable energy, agricultural practices and implementation of technologies to reduce greenhouse gases. How will policy makers know if these strategies are working, particularly at the scales at which they are being implemented? The NASA Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) will provide information on carbon dioxide fluxes derived from observations of earth's land, ocean and atmosphere used in state of the art models describing their interactions. This new modeling system could be used to assess the impact of specific policy interventions on CO2 reductions, enabling an iterative, results-oriented policy process. In January of 2012, the CMS team held a meeting with carbon policy and decision makers in Washington DC to describe the developing modeling system to policy makers. The NASA CMS will develop pilot studies to provide information across a range of spatial scales, consider carbon storage in biomass, and improve measures of the atmospheric distribution of carbon dioxide. The pilot involves multiple institutions (four NASA centers as well as several universities) and over 20 scientists in its work. This pilot study will generate CO2 flux maps for two years using observational constraints in NASA's state-of -the-art models. Bottom-up surface flux estimates will be computed using data-constrained land and ocean models; comparison of the different techniques will provide some knowledge of uncertainty in these estimates. Ensembles of atmospheric carbon distributions will be computed using an atmospheric general circulation model (GEOS-5), with perturbations to the surface fluxes and to transport. Top-down flux estimates will be computed from observed atmospheric CO2 distributions (ACOS/GOSAT retrievals) alongside the forward-model fields, in conjunction with an inverse approach based on the CO2 model of GEOS ]Chem. The forward model ensembles will be used to build understanding of relationships among surface flux perturbations, transport uncertainty and atmospheric carbon concentration. This will help construct uncertainty estimates and information on the true spatial resolution of the top-down flux calculations. The relationship between the top-down and bottom-up flux distributions will be documented. Because the goal of NASA CMS is to be policy relevant, the scientists involved in the flux modeling pilot need to understand and be focused on the needs of the climate policy and decision making community. If policy makers are to use CMS products, they must be aware of the modeling effort and begin to design policies that can be evaluated with information. Improving estimates of carbon sequestered in forests, for example, will require information on the spatial variability of forest biomass that is far more explicit than is presently possible using only ground observations. Carbon mitigation policies being implemented by cities around the United States could be designed with the CMS data in mind, enabling sequential evaluation and subsequent improvements in incentives, structures and programs. The success of climate mitigation programs being implemented in the United States today will hang on the depth of the relationship between scientists and their policy and decision making counterparts. Ensuring that there is two-way communication between data providers and users is important for the success both of the policies and the scientific products meant to support them..

Brown, Molly E.↗

Mixing in the Extratropical Stratosphere: Model-measurements Comparisons using MLM Diagnostics

We evaluate transport processes in the extratropical lower stratosphere for both models and measurements with the help of equivalent length diagnostic from the modified Lagrangian-mean (MLM) analysis. This diagnostic is used to compare measurements of long-lived tracers made by the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) with simulated tracers. Simulations are produced in Chemical and Transport Models (CTMs), in which meteorological fields are taken from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS), the Middle Atmosphere Community Climate Model (MACCM2), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) "SKYHI" model, respectively. Time series of isentropic equivalent length show that these models are able to capture major mixing and transport properties observed by CLAES, such as the formation and destruction of polar barriers, the presence of surf zones in both hemispheres. Differences between each model simulation and the observation are examined in light of model performance. Among these differences, only the simulation driven by GEOS DAS shows one case of the "top-down" destruction of the Antarctic polar vortex, as observed in the CLAES data. Additional experiments of isentropic advection of artificial tracer by GEOS DAS winds suggest that diabatic movement might have considerable contribution to the equivalent length field in the 3D CTM diagnostics.

Ma, Jun↗

Simulation and Interpretation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Gert (2005) as Part of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment

Several hypotheses have been put forward for the how tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic) first develop circulation at the surface, a key event that needs to occur before a storm can begin to draw energy from the warm ocean. One hypothesis suggests that the surface circulation forms from a "top-down" approach in which a storm s rotating circulation begins at middle levels of the atmosphere and builds down to the surface through processes related to light "stratiform" (horizontally extensive) precipitation. Another hypothesis suggests a bottom-up approach in which deep thunderstorm towers (convection) play the major role in spinning up the flow at the surface. These "hot towers" form in the area of the mid-level circulation and strongly concentrate this rotation at low levels within their updrafts. Merger of several of these hot towers then intensifies the surface circulation to the point in which a storm forms. This paper examines computer simulations of Tropical Storm Gert (2005), which formed in the Gulf of Mexico during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment, to investigate the development of low-level circulation and, in particular, whether stratiform or hot tower processes were responsible for the storm s formation. Data from NASA satellites and from aircraft were used to show that the model did a good job of reproducing the formation and evolution of Gert. The simulation shows that a mix of both stratiform and convective rainfall occurred within Gert. While the stratiform rainfall clearly acted to increase rotation at middle levels, the diverging outflow beneath the stratiform rain worked against spinning up the low-level winds. The hot towers appeared to dominate the low-level flow, producing intense rotation within their cores and often being associated with significant pressure falls at the surface. Over time, many of these hot towers merged, with each merger adding to the rotation of the storm and the pressure falls at the surface. This process continued to increase the strength of the storm until the storm made landfall on the east coast of Mexico. These results support the bottom-up hypothesis for development.

Braun, Scott A.↗

Applying Technology Ranking and Systems Engineering in Advanced Life Support

According to the Advanced Life Support (ALS) Program Plan, the Systems Modeling and Analysis Project (SMAP) has two important tasks: 1) prioritizing investments in ALS Research and Technology Development (R&TD), and 2) guiding the evolution of ALS systems. Investments could be prioritized simply by independently ranking different technologies, but we should also consider a technology's impact on system design. Guiding future ALS systems will require SMAP to consider many aspects of systems engineering. R&TD investments can be prioritized using familiar methods for ranking technology. The first step is gathering data on technology performance, safety, readiness level, and cost. Then the technologies are ranked using metrics or by decision analysis using net present economic value. The R&TD portfolio can be optimized to provide the maximum expected payoff in the face of uncertain future events. But more is needed. The optimum ALS system can not be designed simply by selecting the best technology for each predefined subsystem. Incorporating a new technology, such as food plants, can change the specifications of other subsystems, such as air regeneration. Systems must be designed top-down starting from system objectives, not bottom-up from selected technologies. The familiar top-down systems engineering process includes defining mission objectives, mission design, system specification, technology analysis, preliminary design, and detail design. Technology selection is only one part of systems analysis and engineering, and it is strongly related to the subsystem definitions. ALS systems should be designed using top-down systems engineering. R&TD technology selection should consider how the technology affects ALS system design. Technology ranking is useful but it is only a small part of systems engineering.

Jones, Harry↗

MOS 2.0: The Next Generation in Mission Operations Systems

A Mission Operations System (MOS) or Ground System constitutes that portion of an overall space mission Enterprise that resides here on Earth. Over the past two decades, technological innovations in computing and software technologies have allowed an MOS to support ever more complex missions while consuming a decreasing fraction of Project development budgets. Despite (or perhaps, because of) such successes, it is routine to hear concerns about the cost of MOS development. At the same time, demand continues for Ground Systems which will plan more spacecraft activities with fewer commanding errors, provide scientists and engineers with more autonomous functionality, process and manage larger and more complex data more quickly, all while requiring fewer people to develop, deploy, operate and maintain them. One successful approach to such concerns over this period is a multimission approach, based on the reuse of portions (most often software) developed and used in previous missions. The Advanced Multi-Mission Operations System (AMMOS), developed for deep-space science missions, is one successful example of such an approach. Like many computing-intensive systems, it has grown up in a near-organic fashion from a relatively simple set of tools into a complexly interrelated set of capabilities. Such systems, like a city lacking any concept of urban planning, can and will grow in ways that are neither efficient nor particularly easy to sustain. To meet the growing demands and unyielding constraints placed on ground systems, a new approach is necessary. Under the aegis of a multi-year effort to revitalize the AMMOS's multimission operations capabilities, we are utilizing modern practices in systems architecting and model-based engineering to create the next step in Ground Systems: MOS 2.0. In this paper we outline our work (ongoing and planned) to architect and design a multimission MOS 2.0, describe our goals and measureable objectives, and discuss some of the benefits that this top-down, architectural approach holds for creating a more flexible and capable MOS for Missions while holding the line on cost.

ground systems↗

Development of a Ground Test and Analysis Protocol for NASA's NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts

The NASA Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) program is a public-private partnership model that seeks commercial development of deep space exploration capabilities to support human spaceflight missions around and beyond cislunar space. NASA first issued the Phase 1 NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement to U.S. industries in 2014, which called for innovative cislunar habitation concepts that leveraged commercialization plans for low-Earth orbit. These habitats will be part of the Deep Space Gateway (DSG), the cislunar space station planned by NASA for construction in the 2020s. In 2016, Phase 2 of the NextSTEP program selected five commercial partners to develop ground prototypes. A team of NASA research engineers and subject matter experts (SMEs) have been tasked with developing the ground-test protocol that will serve as the primary means by which these Phase 2 prototypes will be evaluated. Since 2008, this core test team has successfully conducted multiple spaceflight analog mission evaluations utilizing a consistent set of operational tools, methods, and metrics to enable the iterative development, testing, analysis, and validation of evolving exploration architectures, operations concepts, and vehicle designs. The purpose of implementing a similar evaluation process for the Phase 2 Habitation Concepts is to consistently evaluate different commercial partner ground prototypes to provide data-driven, actionable recommendations for Phase 3. This paper describes the process by which the ground test protocol was developed and the objectives, methods, and metrics by which the NextSTEP Phase 2 Habitation Concepts will be rigorously and systematically evaluated. The protocol has been developed using both a top-down and bottom-up approach. Top-down development began with the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (HEOMD) exploration objectives and ISS Exploration Capability Study Team (IECST) candidate flight objectives. Strategic questions and associated rationales, derived from these candidate architectural objectives, provide the framework by which the ground-test protocol will address the DSG stack elements and configurations, systems and subsystems, and habitation, science, and EVA functions. From these strategic questions, high-level functional requirements for the DSG were drafted and associated ground-test objectives and analysis protocols were established. Bottom-up development incorporated objectives from NASA SMEs in autonomy, avionics and software, communication, environmental control and life support systems, exercise, extravehicular activity, exploration medical operations, guidance navigation and control, human factors and behavioral performance, human factors and habitability, logistics, Mission Control Center operations, power, radiation, robotics, safety and mission assurance, science, simulation, structures, thermal, trash management, and vehicle health. Top-down and bottom-up objectives were integrated to form overall functional requirements - ground-test objectives and analysis mapping. From this mapping, ground-test objectives were organized into those that will be evaluated through inspection, demonstration, analysis, subsystem standalone testing, and human-in-the-loop (HITL) testing. For the HITL tests, mission-like timelines, procedures, and flight rules have been developed to directly meet ground test objectives and evaluate specific functional requirements. Data collected from these assessments will be analyzed to determine the acceptability of habitation element configurations and the combinations of capabilities that will result in the best habitation platform to be recommended by the test team for Phase 3.

Gernhardt, Michael L.↗